What Draft History Tells Us About Phillies’ Best Bet

The Phillies hold the first pick in the draft this year and have been linked in Baseball America mock drafts at various points to California high school outfielder Mickey Moniak, Florida lefthander A.J. Puk and—back on March 30—New Jersey high school lefthander Jason Groome.

They might be associated with Kansas prep righthander Riley Pint, too, if taking high school righties at No. 1 overall had any precedent.

Of course, the Phillies sport one of the National League’s most anemic offenses this season, so perhaps the organization’s new brain trust, led by general manager Matt Klentak, will favor a college position player, such as Mercer outfielder Kyle Lewis, Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel or Louisville outfielder Corey Ray.

Not surprisingly, position players selected first among their high school or college peer groups—but not necessarily No. 1 overall—return more value, as measured by the Baseball-Reference metric Wins Above Replacement (WAR)—than any other draft demographic. Position players are not subject to the same injury risk or attrition rates as pitchers, and they can build value through both offensive and defensive contributions.

Position players selected first from their peer group also tend to sign on the dotted line. Whereas 10 pitchers taken first from their peer group since 1987—the beginning of the draft’s common era—have declined to turn pro, only one position player has opted to re-enter the draft. In a strange coincidence, that one player, Florida State outfielder J.D. Drew, was selected by the Phillies at No. 2 overall in 1997. Every other high school or college position player taken off the board first since 1987 has signed.

The following table sums up the career value accumulated by the various peer groups since 1987, the first year the draft streamlined to one phase.

First Player Selected From Peer Group Career MLB Totals • Since 1987 Draft
Group	No. 1*	DNS	Failed†	G	WAR
HS Position Player	11	0	4	29,026	655
College Position Player	4	1	0	19,354	296
College Righthander	9	3	2	3,870	263
College Lefthander	1	0	3	4,712	199
HS Lefthander	2	4	10	2,064	174
HS Righthander	0	3	6	2,436	122
* Selected No. 1 overall. Note: 2006 top pick Luke Hochevar (independent league) and 2010 top pick Bryce Harper (junior college) defy easy categorization † Failed to reach majors, as of May 31

Note: The so-called loophole free agents from the 1996 draft, i.e. righthander John Patterson (high school), first baseman Travis Lee (college) and lefthander Bobby Seay (high school), count as signed, even though they did not turn pro with the organization that drafted them.

While the past three decades of draft history suggest that high school position players are the most valuable commodity, the 2016 draft class lacks a talent to match Alex Rodriguez (1993), Chipper Jones (1990), Ken Griffey Jr. (1987), Derek Jeter (1992) or Joe Mauer (2001). If you subtract those five superstars from the equation and replace their value with 11 WAR, which is the median value for the sample, then the high school position players fall to 302 WAR, which still puts them ahead of college position players, but not by much.

Teams need quality pitchers to win, so the lure of a near big league-ready starter can be strong. And despite the Phillies’ trouble scoring runs in the first half of 2016, their system is stocked with intriguing position prospects, such as shortstop J.P. Crawford, outfielders Nick Williams and Cornelius Randolph and catchers Andrew Knapp and Jorge Alfaro.

However, with no obvious college righthander with which to gamble the first overall pick, the Phillies would probably turn to the southpaw Puk, but then a college lefthander going first overall is more rare than commonly realized. David Price in 2007 is the only college southpaw to go No. 1 overall since 1987.

One more table before we examine the draft peer groups in more detail. Here are assorted median values for the various demographics. (Source: Baseball-Reference.) By definition, the median value represents the midpoint for the sample. Therefore, half the sample performed better—and half performed worse. Only players who signed are eligible, except for minor leaguers who still are exempt from selection in the Rule 5 draft, i.e. high school players drafted since 2012 and collegians since 2013.

First Player Selected From Peer Group Median Values Since 1987
Group	Players	AVG	OPS	WAR
High School Position Player	26	.270	.792	11.0
College Position Player	27	.250	.743	7.7
Group	Pitchers	ERA	WHIP	WAR
College Righthander	24	4.46	1.43	4.3
College Lefthander	28	4.22	1.44	3.6
High School Lefthander	22	6.02	1.81	0.0
High School Righthander	22	4.84	1.59	0.8

Here again the notion of safety is reinforced for the best available position players. So too is the notion that college pitchers carry less downside risk—with more WAR and with better median ERAs and WHIPs—than high school pitchers.

Thus history indicates that the highest-probability plays for the Phillies, among players linked to them, are Moniak, the high school outfielder, or Puk, the college lefthander, or possibly one of the college position players, such as Lewis, Senzel or Ray.

It Looks Dangerous—You Go First

While there are no guarantees in baseball, information is power when it comes to the draft, and since the Klentak-led Phillies will lean heavier on precedent and analytics than the previous regime, we can process some of the same information the club is considering. Or in the words of first-year Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins, as quoted by correspondent Shi Davidi: “We try to value what history tells us, and try to connect the dots backward to determine what has worked in the past, what has been indicative of future success and how do we create the most value in this draft.

“So it’s not position-specific, it’s not need-specific—it’s (about) value and based on history.”

Let’s look closer at the various draft demographics. Here we consider only the first player off the board in each draft from each peer group.

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First High School Position Player Selected

Top Five Successes
1. 1993 (1): Alex Rodriguez, ss, Mariners, 119 WAR
2. 1990 (1): Chipper Jones, 3b, Braves, 85 WAR
3. 1987 (1): Ken Griffey Jr., of, Mariners, 84 WAR
4. 1992 (6): Derek Jeter, ss, Yankees, 72 WAR
5. 2001 (1): Joe Mauer, c, Twins, 49 WAR
Total for top five: 408 WAR

The best 18-year-old hitter in the country tends to go off the draft board early, and he tends to sign—every one since 1972 has done so. Beyond the top five transcendental prep talents listed above, the first-off-the-board high school position-player group also has yielded stars such as 1B Adrian Gonzalez (2000, first, Marlins), 3B Eric Chavez (1996, 10th, Athletics), OF Vernon Wells (1997, fifth, Blue Jays), OF Josh Hamilton (1999, first, Rays) and OF Justin Upton (2005, first, D-backs).

Young Stars
1. 2010 (3): Manny Machado, 3b, Orioles, 21 WAR
2. 2012 (1): Carlos Correa, ss, Astros, 5 WAR
3. 2007 (2): Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals, 10 WAR

Still Prospects
1. 2015 (3): Brendan Rodgers, ss, Rockies, No. 40 preseason
2. 2013 (5): Clint Frazier, of, Indians, No. 44
3. 2014 (5): Nick Gordon, ss, Twins, No. 53
4. 2011 (5): Bubba Starling, of, Royals

Biggest Bust
2009 (3): Donavan Tate, of, Padres

Tate signed for a since-surpassed prep record $6.25 million*, and the Cartersville, Ga., product advanced only to high Class A Lake Elsinore in seven years in the Padres system. He hit .229/.334/.324 in 1,014 at-bats before signing with the Dodgers as a minor league free agent last November. Injuries, drug suspensions and promise unfulfilled—all are narratives attached to Tate’s pro career. He’s still just 25.

The Padres also selected SS Matt Bush (2004, first) at the head of his draft class, and he hit so poorly—.219 in 722 at-bats—that he moved to the mound in his fourth pro season. Bush then served three and a half years in prison before signing with the Rangers—his fourth organization—in the offseason. He made his big league debut (as a reliever) in May, a dozen years after being drafted.

* Royals OF Bubba Starling signed for $7.5 million in 2011

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First College Position Player Selected

Top Five Successes
1. 2001 (5): Mark Teixeira, 1b, Rangers, 52 WAR
2. 2006 (3): Evan Longoria, 3b, Rays, 43 WAR
3. 1995 (1): Darin Erstad, of/1b, Angels, 32 WAR
4. 2005 (2): Alex Gordon, of, Royals, 32 WAR
5. 1998 (1): Pat Burrell, of, Phillies, 19 WAR
Total for top five: 179 WAR

Diamondbacks SS Stephen Drew (2004, 15th) and Orioles C Matt Wieters (2007, fifth) highlight the best of the rest of this peer group. 3B Phil Nevin (1992, first, Astros), C Dan Wilson (1990, seventh, Reds) and 2B Rickie Weeks (2003, second, Brewers) contributed for many seasons, albeit at more modest levels.

Young Stars
1. 2013 (2): Kris Bryant, 3b, Cubs, 8 WAR
2. 2011 (6): Anthony Rendon, 3b, Nationals, 8 WAR
3. 2014 (4): Kyle Schwarber, of, Cubs, 1 WAR

Still Prospects
1. 2015 (1): Dansby Swanson, ss, D-backs, No. 17 preseason

Biggest Bust
2000 (12): Joe Borchard, of, White Sox, –1.5 WAR

While SS Drew Meyer (2002, 10th, Rangers), 3B Antone Williamson (1994, fourth, Brewers) and OF Donald Harris (1989, fifth, Rangers) all played in fewer than 100 major league games, the biggest bust relative to expectations would be Borchard. He signed for $5.3 million, the largest bonus amount in his draft class, but the Stanford right fielder hit just .205/.284/.352 (65 OPS+) in 800 big league plate appearances before retiring in 2011 while in the independent Atlantic League.

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First College Lefthander Selected

Top Five Successes
1. 1999 (9): Barry Zito, Athletics, 33 WAR
2. 2007 (1): David Price, Rays, 28 WAR
3. 1998 (2): Mark Mulder, Athletics, 20 WAR
4. 1988 (8): Jim Abbott, Angels, 20 WAR
5. 1996 (20): Eric Milton, Yankees, 17 WAR
Total for top five: 118 WAR

The top college lefhander selected tends to run either hot or cold. In addition to the five pitchers listed above, Brian Matusz (2008, fourth, Orioles) and Andrew Miller (2006, sixth, Tigers) developed into useful relievers, while the following southpaws made 200 or more big league appearances: Paul Maholm (2003, eighth, Pirates), Brian Anderson (1993, third, Angels), Mark Redman (1995, 13th, Twins), Jeff Francis (2002, ninth, Rockies), Derek Lilliquist (1987, sixth, Braves) and Allen Watson (1991, 21st, Cardinals).

Just three of the college lefties in this sample failed to reach the majors: B.J. Wallace (1992, third, Expos), Chris Smith (2001, seventh, Orioles) and Danny Hultzen (2011, second, Mariners).

Young Stars
1. 2014 (3): Carlos Rodon, White Sox, 1 WAR
2. 2012 (9): Andrew Heaney, Marlins, 1 WAR

Still Prospects
1. 2015 (6): Tyler Jay, Twins, No. 80 preseason
2. 2013 (19): Marco Gonzales, Cardinals

Biggest Bust
1992 (3): B.J. Wallace, Expos

An Olympic star in 1992, Wallace starred at Mississippi State but recorded a 4.21 ERA in 244 innings after turning pro, and he was done by 1996., the next time the Olympics rolled around. In 2011, a 40-year-old Wallace and his wife were arrested in their Loxley, Ala., home under suspicion of manufacturing methamphetamine.

A case can be made for the Mariners’ Danny Hultzen (2011, second), who remains active, albeit on the disabled list as he deals with his latest injury setback. He signed a major league contract out of the draft that included a $6.35 million bonus.

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First College Righthander Selected

Top Five Successes
1. 1990 (20): Mike Mussina, Orioles, 83 WAR
2. 2004 (2): Justin Verlander, Tigers, 44 WAR
3. 1988 (1): Andy Benes, Padres, 32 WAR
4. 1989 (1): Ben McDonald, Orioles, 21 WAR
5t. 2001 (2): Mark Prior, Cubs, 17 WAR
5t. 2009 (1): Stephen Strasburg, Nationals, 16 WAR
Total for top five: 196 WAR

Mussina could be elected to the Hall of Fame one day, while Verlander served as best pitcher on the planet before the ascension of Clayton Kershaw. Other top college righthanders off the board, such as Kris Benson (1996, first, Pirates), Darren Dreifort (1993, second, Dodgers), Paul Shuey (1992, second, Indians), Mike Pelfrey (2005, ninth, Mets) and Matt Anderson (1997, first, Tigers), made at least 200 big league appearances. However, none ever quite lived up to their billing on draft day.

Young Stars
1. 2011 (1): Gerrit Cole, Pirates, 8 WAR
2. 2014 (7): Aaron Nola, Phillies, 3 WAR
3. 2012 (4): Kevin Gausman, Orioles, 3 WAR

Still Prospects
1. 2015 (4): Dillon Tate, Rangers, No. 69 preseason
2. 2013 (1): Mark Appel, Astros

Biggest Bust
2006 (2): Greg Reynolds, Rockies, –1.6 WAR

The Pirates’ Bryan Bullington (2002) and the Mets’ Paul Wilson (1994) are No. 1 overall selections infamous for not matching their draft status in pro ball, yet Reynolds actually pitched less effectively (7.01 ERA in 123 big league innings). Furthermore, the Stanford product has the distinction of going off the board first in a pitching-rich 2006 draft, especially in terms of first-round-caliber college righthanders. What’s more, three rival Pacific-10 Conference starters, all selected after Reynolds in the first round, outperformed him in the majors: California’s Brandon Morrow (fifth), Washington’s Tim Lincecum (10th) and Southern California’s Ian Kennedy (21st).

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First High School Lefthander Selected

Top Five Successes
1. 2006 (7): Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 51 WAR
2. 1998 (20): C.C. Sabathia, Indians, 56 WAR
3. 2007 (10): Madison Bumgarner, Giants, 24 WAR
4. 2003 (9): John Danks, Rangers, 21 WAR
5. 1988 (3): Steve Avery, Braves, 14 WAR
Total for top five: 166 WAR

The 2016 draft projects to see as many as three prep lefthanders go in the first round: Jason Groome (Barnegat, N.J.), Braxton Garrett (Florence, Ala.) and Kyle Muller (Dallas). Just 12 of the past 29 drafts have featured that many first-round prep southpaws, and four drafts in that time did not even see a single high school lefty go in the first round.

Nearly half of the high school lefthanders selected first among their peer group failed to reach the majors, making them the most volatile draft demographic. However, the team that hits paydirt could come away with a perennial Cy Young contender, like Kershaw, Sabathia or Bumgarner.

Young Stars
None

Tyler Matzek (2009, 11th, Rockies) and Jesse Biddle (2010, 27th, Phillies) remain active, though only sporadically healthy and effective. Though he was a supplemental first-round pick in 2008, Mike Montgomery (36th, Royals) was the first prep southpaw taken in his draft class. He has forged a big league career since joining the Mariners prior to the 2015 season, this year working in the bullpen.

Still Prospects
1. 2015 (14): Kolby Allard, Braves, No. 84 preseason
2. 2012 (7): Max Fried, Padres
3. 2013 (7): Trey Ball, Red Sox
4. 2010 (27): Jesse Biddle, Phillies

Biggest Bust
1991 (1): Brien Taylor, Yankees

With such a high bust rate, first-off-the-board high school lefthanders offers no shortage of candidates. Before injuring himself in an off-field brawl, Taylor appeared to be a can’t-miss prospect, ranking No. 1 on the Top 100 Prospects list in 1992 and then No. 2 in 1993, when he trailed only Chipper Jones. Ultimately, Taylor, a Beaufort, N.C., product, failed to advance past low Class A, and he retired in 2000 with a career 5.12 ERA and walk rate of 7.3 per nine innings.

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First High School Righthander Selected

Top Five Successes
1. 1999 (2): Josh Beckett, Marlins, 36 WAR
2. 1994 (4): Kerry Wood, Cubs, 28 WAR
3. 1997 (10): Jon Garland, Cubs, 22 WAR
4. 2001 (4): Gavin Floyd, Phillies, 16 WAR
5. 2007 (9): Jarrod Parker, D-backs, 6 WAR
Total for top five: 109 WAR

Fifteen of the past 29 drafts have seen a high school righty go off the board either second (three times), third (three times), fourth (four times) or fifth overall (five times). Beckett, Wood and Floyd belong to that group, but so too do Willie Banks (1987, third, Twins), Roger Salkeld (1989, third, Mariners), Chris Gruler (2002, third, Reds), Mark Rogers (2004, fifth, Brewers) and Matt Hobgood (2009, fifth, Orioles). The only other mild success stories of note are John Patterson (1996, fifth, Expos) and Jaret Wright (1994, 10th, Indians).

Young Stars
None

Jeremy Jeffress (2006, 16th, Brewers) and Dylan Bundy (2011, fourth, Orioles) come closest, with the former serving as closer for the Brewers, with whom he re-signed in April 2014 after being traded away in the Zack Greinke deal in December 2010. After three injury-wracked years, Bundy probably would be building stamina in the minors if not for the fact that he is out of minor league options.

Still Prospects
1. 2010 (2): Jameson Taillon, Pirates
2. 2013 (4):  Kohl Stewart, Twins
3. 2014 (2): Tyler Kolek, Marlins
4. 2012 (14): Nick Travieso, Reds
5. 2015 (21): Ashe Russell, Royals

Biggest Bust
2000 (7): Matt Harrington, Rockies

While Bakersfield, Calif., prep Kurt Miller (1990, fifth, Pirates) recorded a 7.48 ERA in 81 big league innings, racking up –2.6 WAR, the most disappointing prep righty tale belongs to Matt Harrington, a Palmdale (Calif.) High product and the top pre-draft talent in 2000. He turned down a reported $4 million bonus offer from the Rockies as the seventh overall pick, then embarked on a career in the independent leagues. He failed to sign with an affiliated club, even after being drafted in 2001 (a second-round selection still), 2002, 2003 and 2004. Harrington went 16-18, 4.49 in 268 innings in his seven years in indy ball