RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On June 2, 2024

Happy Dominican Summer League Eve! RoboScout has a soft spot for the beginning of the DSL. Finding diamonds in the rough of international players is one of its favorite things to do.

Just as a housekeeping note, there won’t be a formal “list” of the DSL pitchers during the season because the success rate of DSL pitchers is quite low. I will still mention some interesting names, performances or stuff on a weekly basis. There will be a Top 25 list of DSL hitters though of course, but likely not starting next week after only one week of games.

My strong dynasty advice is to keep a roster spot or two available for speculating on the latest pop-up. Who knows, maybe you’ll grab the next Starlyn Caba or Angel Genao.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive position or ability). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Complex League Hitters (min 25 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Dameury Pena	MIN	87	100
2	Jeremy Rodriguez	NYM	100	99
3	Brailer Guerrero	TBR	81	95
4	Eduardo Quintero	LAD	81	92
5	Starlyn Caba	PHI	78	90
6	Franyerber Montilla	DET	70	88
7	Edgleen Perez	NYY	76	88
8	Julio Zayas	NYM	73	87
9	Lisbel Diaz	SFG	71	86
10	Larry Martinez	TBR	73	86
11	Robert Calaz	COL	86	86
12	Luis Parababire	ATL	69	85
13	Demetrio Crisantes	ARI	67	85
14	Andruw Musett	BOS	68	85
15	Leandro Arias	BAL	68	85
16	Yoeilin Cespedes	BOS	73	84
17	Angelo Hernandez	CHW	76	84
18	Walker Jenkins	MIN	66	83
19	Felnin Celesten	SEA	72	82
20	Brian Sanchez	NYY	65	82
21	Alexander Albertus	LAD	65	81
22	Richard Ramirez	PIT	69	81
23	Franklin Arias	BOS	64	81
24	Jhonny Severino	PIT	71	81
25	Welbyn Francisca	CLE	65	81

Last year in the DSL, Julio Zayas (Mets) was an intriguing righthanded hitting catcher, finding himself in the top 25 at the end of the season. Although he didn’t hit any home runs this past week, he did raise his wRC+ by about 30 points and finds himself in the top 10 at the Complex. From a Statcast point of view, his contact, barrel rate, and 90th percentile exit velocities remain similar to his 2023 performance, but he has cut his chase rate in half to 14%, likely an artifact of being more generally selective by cutting his overall swing rate by around 10%. Right now, he punishes fastballs much more than secondaries. Overall, his underlying performance ranks in the 85th percentile at the level.

Another interesting name is Franklin Arias (Red Sox), a righthanded shortstop who we identified as a potential preseason breakout on account of his smooth defensive ability and athleticism with projectable power. In 2024, he has shown the ability to barrel up all pitch types, with better than league average rates against fastballs, breaking pitches and off speed. Despite not being a burner, the Venezuelan has chipped in eight stolen bases, though he has been caught three times. Although he still hasn’t really added much in the way of exit velocity, the teenager is showing enough of an encouraging hit tool foundation while stateside for the first time, that I expect the power to come. An intriguing name for deeper leagues where the underlying data suggests more than the stat line performance.

After mentioning him last week, Franyerber Montilla (Tigers) hit his first home run on the season, and added two more stolen bases to his total, as he raised his weighted runs created plus by 20 points landing just outside the top five. Arrow up.

Yeremi Cabrera (Rangers) snapped out of his slump in a big way, hitting a home run, stealing two bases, and raising his wRC+ by 30 points. A slugger with huge exit velocities but contact rates well below average, Cabrera is hurt tremendously by his Statcast data. RoboScout lowers him from No. 2 overall to just outside the Top 25 when considering how much he has struggled making contact so far this season, sporting an in-zone miss rate of nearly 33%. RoboScout is expressing caution.

From the pitcher side of things. Ovis Portes (Red Sox) pitched three innings on Monday with five strikeouts and no walks with a robust two-pitch mix of a 95 mph four-seam fastball with life that has hit 98 mph and an 80 mph slider. Samuel Sanchez (Dodgers) is another intriguing name after he struck out seven on Monday with no walks over four innings. Throwing over the top, his four-seam sits 93 mph, and he has a slider and a curve, both with downward bite. He’s inconsistent with his release point right now with his fastball being released from a point three inches higher than his secondaries, potentially tipping off more advanced hitters.

Another interesting Dodger arm belongs to Christian Zazueta. The righthander deploys a four-to-five pitch mix–depending on how you classify–headed by his low-slot four-seamer that comes in flat at 92 mph and has over a foot of arm side run and a 79 mph slider that has a foot of horizontal sweep itself. He also has a changeup, cutter and curveball. The ingredients are raw right now but RoboScout currently has the teenager as a top three arm in the complex league.

Low-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Lazaro Montes	SEA	100	100
2	Jonny Farmelo	SEA	88	97
3	Colt Emerson	SEA	92	97
4	Kevin McGonigle	DET	87	97
5	Jeral Perez	LAD	80	92
6	Ralphy Velazquez	CLE	81	89
7	Jaison Chourio	CLE	74	86
8	Aidan Smith	SEA	84	86
9	Blake Mitchell	KCR	77	85
10	Tai Peete	SEA	75	84
11	Josue De Paula	LAD	69	84
12	Zyhir Hope	LAD	67	83
13	Josue Briceno	DET	68	82
14	Angel Genao	CLE	65	81
15	Michael Arroyo	SEA	72	80
16	Aidan Miller	PHI	71	79
17	Cristofer Torin	ARI	71	79
18	Max Clark	DET	65	79
19	Jesus Baez	NYM	67	78
20	Alfredo Duno	CIN	78	77
21	Bryce Eldridge	SFG	62	77
22	Leandro Arias	BAL	56	75
23	Nazzan Zanetello	BOS	69	74
24	Marco Vargas	NYM	54	73
25	Juan Baez	MIL	60	72

Jonny Farmelo (Mariners No. 6 prospect) climbs up to the second spot after hitting a home run and stealing two more bases, bringing his season total to 16 bags. RoboScout sees the outfielder as a 20 home run, 20 stolen base hitter with good batting average and on base percentage and a better than league average wRC+.

Angel Genao (Guardians No. 12 prospect) continues adding to his case of top sleeper prospect of 2024 with a home run and three stolen bases last week and entering the top 15.

After his 26 Complex League plate appearances rated as a top-15 performance by RoboScout, Leandro Arias (Orioles) debuts in the Low-A rankings just outside the top 20. The middle infielder lights up all of his Statcast lollipops and has improved his contact, chase, and barrel rates from 2023 while also adding over 100 points to his xwOBAcon. We had him as an Oriole prospect to know beyond the Top 30 and he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite prospects.

Low-A Pitchers (min 10 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Matt Wilkinson	CLE	100	100
2	Quinn Mathews	STL	85	94
3	Jonah Tong	NYM	91	94
4	Alejandro Rosario	TEX	83	93
5	George Klassen	PHI	81	92
6	Santiago Suarez	TBR	81	92
7	Didier Fuentes	ATL	76	88
8	Grant Taylor	CHW	71	86
9	Bishop Letson	MIL	76	85
10	Yujanyer Herrera	MIL	83	84
11	Jarlin Susana	WSN	67	80
12	Thomas White	MIA	71	80
13	Jace Kaminska	COL	71	79
14	Kohl Drake	TEX	76	78
15	Barrett Kent	LAA	72	78
16	Noble Meyer	MIA	66	77
17	Michael Forret	BAL	72	77
18	Welinton Herrera	COL	64	77
19	Manuel Rodriguez	MIL	73	76
20	Luis De Leon	BAL	74	76
21	Darlin Saladin	STL	76	76
22	Travis Sykora	WSN	71	76
23	Luis Serna	NYY	74	76
24	Tyler Gough	SEA	60	76
25	Gary Gill Hill	TBR	74	75

Grant Taylor (White Sox) has been extremely impressive in his brief stint so far with a 96 mph four-seam fastball, a 91 mph cutter, an 87 mph slider and an 80 mph curveball. Almost as impressive as the stuff–which our internal model has as some of the best in Low-A–is the resultant performance, with a 41% strikeout minus walk rate which is the third highest in the league of any pitcher with at least 11 innings. With only a 2% walk rate in Low-A and a 32% ball rate across both levels that he’s pitched at, it seems like the 2023 second-round pick’s recovery of his command after Tommy John surgery is ahead of schedule. Arrow way up for me.

Alejandro Rosario (Rangers No. 23 prospect) carved up the Low-A Nationals team to the tune of 11 strikeouts and only one base runner over six innings this weekend, catapulting into the top five. Considering his stuff, this type of dominance isn’t all that unexpected. His three-pitch arsenal consists of a 97 mph four seam fastball from a low 5-foot-4-inch release slot that comes in flat and with 16 inches of arm side run, an 84 mph slider that gets 50% whiffs, and a changeup that batters have only managed to generate a 0.100 xwOBA against and itself generates over 50% whiffs. With the sixth-highest strikeout minus walk rate amongst Low-A starters with at least 20 innings, he’s already on the prospect radar–but once you fold in the above average stuff, you can feel more confident that it is sustainable performance. For Josh’s live look, read this

High-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Luke Keaschall	MIN	100	100
2	Carter Jensen	KCR	100	99
3	Sal Stewart	CIN	87	89
4	Xavier Isaac	TBR	84	86
5	Alex Freeland	LAD	77	82
6	Cam Collier	CIN	83	81
7	Henry Bolte	OAK	85	81
8	Yohendrick Pinango	CHC	74	80
9	Ethan Salas	SDP	84	80
10	Jefferson Rojas	CHC	75	77
11	Mike Boeve	MIL	70	76
12	C.J. Kayfus	CLE	72	75
13	Jay Allen II	CIN	81	75
14	Ricardo Olivar	MIN	71	74
15	Luke Adams	MIL	72	74
16	Thayron Liranzo	LAD	72	74
17	Sebastian Walcott	TEX	83	74
18	Hector Rodriguez	CIN	70	74
19	Samuel Zavala	CHW	68	73
20	Nate Furman	CLE	65	72
21	Pedro Ramirez	CHC	69	72
22	Hendry Mendez	PHI	63	70
23	Joe Mack	MIA	70	70
24	Dylan O’Rae	MIL	70	69
25	Cooper Ingle	CLE	62	68

Sal Stewart (Reds No. 7 prospect) just continues to win over RoboScout with another home run this week. Although he only has four home runs and four stolen bases on the year, the fact that he’s in High-A in his age 20 season with a 144 wRC+ means that RoboScout sees him as a 20 home run bat with a better than average batting average and OBP. Stewart turned some heads in the second half of last year and this year has improved his contact, chase, and barrel rates while also adding a tick to his 90th percentile exit velocity. Most encouragingly, he isn’t only producing against fastballs–in fact, against non-fastballs, both his contact rate and his xwOBAcon are more than 1 standard deviation better than league average. An extremely polished hitter.

Ever since being promoted to High-A Bowling Green, Tre’ Morgan (Rays No. 21 prospect) has been raking. He has a plus contact rate and plus barrel rate but only a league average 90th percentile exit velocity. Nonetheless, a 269 wRC+ over 52 plate appearances–combined with his 147 wRC+ in 115 plate appearances in Low-A–has RoboScout projecting him to be an above average hitter at peak, albeit with below-average power. An interesting note is that after stealing nine bases in Low-A, Morgan has only attempted one steal in High-A.

Despite hitting eight home runs and stealing six bases, with a 160 wRC+ in just over 160 plate appearances since April 20, Jared Serna (Yankees No. 19 prospect) RoboScout still doesn’t have the Mexican-born infielder as high in the rankings as expected. The underlying statcast data is solid with a 104 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a better than average contact rate and barrel rate. He’s a top 250 fantasy prospect for me but not much higher than that right now and his recent performance is being viewed more as a hot streak rather than as a change in true talent.

High-A Pitchers (min 13 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Noah Schultz	CHW	99	100
2	Luis Perales	BOS	98	99
3	Owen Murphy	ATL	100	98
4	Zebby Matthews	MIN	88	90
5	Jaden Hamm	DET	96	89
6	Chase Dollander	COL	87	89
7	Ryan Lobus	TEX	84	84
8	Brett Wichrowski	MIL	81	84
9	Moises Chace	BAL	79	82
10	Quinn Mathews	STL	94	81
11	Winston Santos	TEX	85	80
12	Peter Heubeck	LAD	76	80
13	Nolan McLean	NYM	79	80
14	Sean Sullivan	COL	74	79
15	Alessandro Ercolani	PIT	86	76
16	Austin Peterson	CLE	70	76
17	Aidan Curry	TEX	74	75
18	Cam Schlittler	NYY	71	75
19	Trevor Martin	TBR	82	75
20	Edgar Portes	BAL	74	74
21	Andry Lara	WSN	78	74
22	Jake Bloss	HOU	71	74
23	Rhett Lowder	CIN	75	73
24	Andrew Morris	MIN	70	73
25	Juan Nunez	BAL	81	73

A newly qualified name is Ryan Lobus (Rangers) who RoboScout currently ranks seventh–higher than other more highly regarded pitchers at High-A Hickory: Mitch Bratt, Winston Santos and Aidan Curry. He has the highest swinging strike rate and strikeout rate amongst his fellow Hickory hurlers, as well as the lowest xFIP. His four-pitch mix of 80 mph slider, two 91 mph fastballs and a splitter comes in from an extremely low release point, resulting in over 17 inches of arm side run on the two seam and 12 inches of glove side run on the slider. Another example of a non-traditional look leading to better-than-expected results. If he can keep the walk rate in the single digits, this nondrafted free agent has a chance to stick as a starter.

An interesting name with big stuff and excellent recent performance is 24-year-old Brandyn Garcia (Mariners). Another pitcher with a unique slot, the southpaw has a 94 mph two-seamer with an astonishing 19 inches of run and an 85 mph slider that has nearly of horizontal sweep. With a 1.25 WHIP, 2.25 ERA over his last 28 innings, Garcia has generated a 64% groundball rate. On the season, he isn’t quite in the top 25 but he has been ascending in the last six weeks. With a strike rate of only 60%, as is often the case, his command will be the deciding factor in whether he can stick as a starter.

Despite not qualifying for the list yet, I would be remiss to neglect mentioning that in his first 10 innings at High-A Lake County after obliterating Low-A, “Tugboat” Matt Wilkinson (Guardians) has a 41% strikeout rate and 3% walk rate. At some point, we will need to acknowledge that despite the “stuff” not lighting up traditional pitch models, the unique look and release is undeniably leading to outstanding performance.

Double-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Emmanuel Rodriguez	MIN	100	100
2	Agustin Ramirez	NYY	95	97
3	Matthew Lugo	BOS	93	94
4	Alex Freeland	LAD	88	92
5	Carson Williams	TBR	93	92
6	Moises Ballesteros	CHC	87	90
7	Cole Young	SEA	88	90
8	Harry Ford	SEA	85	85
9	Roman Anthony	BOS	78	83
10	Yohendrick Pinango	CHC	76	82
11	Samuel Basallo	BAL	87	82
12	Jett Williams	NYM	75	81
13	Colby Thomas	OAK	74	78
14	Hao-Yu Lee	DET	80	78
15	Deyvison De Los Santos	ARI	83	77
16	Marcelo Mayer	BOS	74	77
17	Zac Veen	COL	80	76
18	Dalton Rushing	LAD	66	74
19	Brooks Baldwin	CHW	72	74
20	Jacob Wilson	OAK	71	73
21	Kyle Teel	BOS	78	73
22	Tyler Locklear	SEA	69	70
23	Mike Boeve	MIL	61	70
24	James Triantos	CHC	62	69
25	Dylan Crews	WSN	63	69

For the first time, Dylan Crews (Nationals No. 2 prospect) enters the top 25 after tallying a home run and a stolen base this past week. On the season, the outfielder has a wRC+ of 130 with four homers and nine stolen bases. Disappointing no doubt, but he’s set a new max exit velocity as a professional at 114 mph off the bat, and his 90th percentile exit velocity is over 105 mph–essentially the same as Matt Shaw (Cubs No. 3 prospect) and Brady House (Nationals No. 3 prospect).

Adael Amador (Rockies) has been a huge disappointment this year at Double-A Hartford but has salvaged some of his season somewhat with a three home run, three stolen base performance this past week. Despite the week’s batting average being north of .400, his season’s triple slash is an anemic .176/.328/.264. He still projects to be a 20 home run and 20 stolen base bat at peak–with Coors as his home park ensuring a high confidence level of achieving that. He is still a Top 100 fantasy prospect for me, but the shine has definitely come off what was once one of the highest regarded hit tools in the minors.

With both hitting three home runs this week, Dalton Rushing (Dodgers No. 2 prospect) and Kyle Teel (Red Sox No. 3 prospect) climb into the top 25 for the first time on the season. With arguably the most impressive Statcast data in the minor leagues, Rushing is a top 75 fantasy prospect for me, especially in OBP leagues, even if he moves off of the catcher position. Teel is within my personal Top 100 and is rewarding the patience of fantasy managers who were concerned about his slow start.

Double-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Zebby Matthews	MIN	93	100
2	Tink Hence	STL	100	96
3	Yilber Diaz	ARI	93	95
4	Carson Palmquist	COL	92	95
5	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL	95	94
6	Chandler Champlain	KCR	97	94
7	Ben Casparius	LAD	85	93
8	Blade Tidwell	NYM	85	93
9	Ian Seymour	TBR	100	93
10	Thomas Harrington	PIT	85	90
11	Brandon Young	BAL	93	90
12	Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	86	89
13	Justin Wrobleski	LAD	82	89
14	Zach Penrod	BOS	92	88
15	Doug Nikhazy	CLE	86	88
16	Jackson Jobe	DET	78	87
17	Tyler Stuart	NYM	83	86
18	Mason Adams	CHW	92	85
19	Ty Madden	DET	86	84
20	Miguel Ullola	HOU	79	84
21	Jacob Misiorowski	MIL	76	84
22	Mason Barnett	KCR	85	83
23	Brandon Sproat	NYM	81	82
24	Justin Jarvis	NYM	80	82
25	Ian Mejia	ATL	85	81

After Geoff and I wrote about him last week, Spencer Schwellenbach (Braves) got the call and had a solid major league debut against the Nationals.

Climbing inexorably up the rankings to No. 11 is Brandon Young (Orioles). With a 41% strikeout rate–the highest in Double-A by any starting pitcher with at least 10 innings pitched–and the highest strikeout minus walk rate from that cohort, the 25-year-old nondrafted free agent has a four-seam fastball that sits 93-94 mph. Despite his over-the-top release point, it comes in flatter than 85% of other four-seamers in the league. His five-pitch mix also includes a changeup that has an xwOBA against below .200, an 83 mph slider that gets 37% whiffs, and a curve and a cutter that both get over 40% whiffs. With excellent command, really the only thing holding him back from rising up rankings is the fact that he has averaged just over three innings per start. Questions about his stamina remain, having only thrown 53 innings in the last two years with a barking elbow.

One of the best performing Double-A pitchers over the last six weeks has been Tyler Stuart (Mets No. 20 prospect) and his four-pitch mix. His primary pitch is an 83 mph slider that gets 36% whiffs and he has two different 94 mph fastballs–a four seamer that is in the 85th percentile for flatness and a two seamer that has over a foot and a half of horizontal tail–all of which play up because of his six and a half foot extension.

Another interesting pitcher who had an excellent May, but hasn’t made the season rankings yet, was Shane Smith (Brewers)–a right hander with a 95 mph four-seam fastball that is in the 95th percentile for extension in Double-A. Also throwing an 87 mph slider and an 80 mph curve ball that has an IVB of 12 inches–approximately 10% more spike than average–over his last 25 innings, he has a 30% strikeout minus walk rate and a whiff rate on all his pitches that is higher than league average. He’s a watchlist name.

Triple-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	James Wood	WSN	100	100
2	Jose Fermin	STL	86	91
3	Jackson Holliday	BAL	91	89
4	Coby Mayo	BAL	83	87
5	Heston Kjerstad	BAL	78	83
6	Kyle Manzardo	CLE	75	82
7	Miguel Vargas	LAD	73	79
8	Andy Pages	LAD	69	74
9	Jonah Bride	MIA	66	74
10	Addison Barger	TOR	64	72
11	Javier Sanoja	MIA	64	72
12	Tyler Black	MIL	67	71
13	Ji Hwan Bae	PIT	66	70
14	Austin Martin	MIN	61	70
15	Junior Caminero	TBR	68	70
16	Chase Meidroth	BOS	61	69
17	Niko Kavadas	BOS	58	68
18	Caleb Durbin	NYY	66	68
19	Leo Jimenez	TOR	58	68
20	Joey Loperfido	HOU	66	67
21	Ryan Ward	LAD	63	67
22	Jonatan Clase	SEA	63	67
23	Brewer Hicklen	MIL	63	66
24	Owen Caissie	CHC	67	66
25	Isaac Collins	MIL	55	66

After an underwhelming major league debut earlier this year, Addison Barger (Blue Jays No. 4 prospect) has turned it back on at Triple-A Buffalo with a 143 wRC+ in his last 100 plate appearances with as many walks as strikeouts. Under the hood, Barger doesn’t show any major flaws against off non-fastballs, with above average contact and xwOBAcon against secondaries. In other words, despite the big league disappointment, Barger should still be a league average major league bat with 20 home run power and a handful of steals. RoboScout has him No. 10 in Triple-A

On our last fantasy podcast, Geoff identified Adrian Del Castillo (Diamondbacks No. 26 prospect) as a target and the catcher jumped into the top 30 for the first time all season.

And congratulations to Daniel Schneemann (Guardians) who was mentioned in these hallowed pages a few weeks ago and was called up today to make his major league debut at the keystone. Based on RoboScout’s Triple-A promotion record, look for the Brewers to potentially call up Brewer Hicklen or the previously identified Isaac Collins in the next few weeks.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Paul Skenes	PIT	100	100
2	Christian Scott	NYM	93	93
3	Jack Leiter	TEX	79	81
4	Matt Manning	DET	78	80
5	Cade Povich	BAL	88	79
6	Chayce McDermott	BAL	78	78
7	David Festa	MIN	82	77
8	Carson Spiers	CIN	74	76
9	Tobias Myers	MIL	71	75
10	Elieser Hernandez	LAD	72	74
11	Robert Gasser	MIL	69	73
12	Slade Cecconi	ARI	78	73
13	Louie Varland	MIN	77	72
14	Alek Manoah	TOR	76	72
15	Brant Hurter	DET	72	72
16	Mason Black	SFG	69	72
17	Quinn Priester	PIT	82	71
18	Gerson Garabito	TEX	72	70
19	Albert Suarez	BAL	74	70
20	Jhonathan Diaz	SEA	82	70
21	Jacob Waguespack	TBR	78	70
22	Osvaldo Bido	OAK	72	70
23	Shaun Anderson	TEX	71	69
24	Spencer Howard	SFG	73	69
25	Sem Robberse	STL	80	68

Happy bidding!