RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On June 2, 2024


Happy Dominican Summer League Eve! RoboScout has a soft spot for the beginning of the DSL. Finding diamonds in the rough of international players is one of its favorite things to do.

Just as a housekeeping note, there won’t be a formal “list” of the DSL pitchers during the season because the success rate of DSL pitchers is quite low. I will still mention some interesting names, performances or stuff on a weekly basis. There will be a Top 25 list of DSL hitters though of course, but likely not starting next week after only one week of games.

My strong dynasty advice is to keep a roster spot or two available for speculating on the latest pop-up. Who knows, maybe you’ll grab the next Starlyn Caba or Angel Genao.

As a reminder, the RoboScore is the value (0 to 100) assigned per level by RoboScout based on 2024 statistical performance and projecting fantasy value (without considering defensive position or ability). The RoboCast number is the RoboScore but with statcast blended in and then transformed to the 0 to 100 scale.

Complex League Hitters (min 25 PA)

1Dameury PenaMIN87100
2Jeremy RodriguezNYM10099
3Brailer GuerreroTBR8195
4Eduardo QuinteroLAD8192
5Starlyn CabaPHI7890
6Franyerber MontillaDET7088
7Edgleen PerezNYY7688
8Julio ZayasNYM7387
9Lisbel DiazSFG7186
10Larry MartinezTBR7386
11Robert CalazCOL8686
12Luis ParababireATL6985
13Demetrio CrisantesARI6785
14Andruw MusettBOS6885
15Leandro AriasBAL6885
16Yoeilin CespedesBOS7384
17Angelo HernandezCHW7684
18Walker JenkinsMIN6683
19Felnin CelestenSEA7282
20Brian SanchezNYY6582
21Alexander AlbertusLAD6581
22Richard RamirezPIT6981
23Franklin AriasBOS6481
24Jhonny SeverinoPIT7181
25Welbyn FranciscaCLE6581

Last year in the DSL, Julio Zayas (Mets) was an intriguing righthanded hitting catcher, finding himself in the top 25 at the end of the season. Although he didn’t hit any home runs this past week, he did raise his wRC+ by about 30 points and finds himself in the top 10 at the Complex. From a Statcast point of view, his contact, barrel rate, and 90th percentile exit velocities remain similar to his 2023 performance, but he has cut his chase rate in half to 14%, likely an artifact of being more generally selective by cutting his overall swing rate by around 10%. Right now, he punishes fastballs much more than secondaries. Overall, his underlying performance ranks in the 85th percentile at the level.

Another interesting name is Franklin Arias (Red Sox), a righthanded shortstop who we identified as a potential preseason breakout on account of his smooth defensive ability and athleticism with projectable power. In 2024, he has shown the ability to barrel up all pitch types, with better than league average rates against fastballs, breaking pitches and off speed. Despite not being a burner, the Venezuelan has chipped in eight stolen bases, though he has been caught three times. Although he still hasn’t really added much in the way of exit velocity, the teenager is showing enough of an encouraging hit tool foundation while stateside for the first time, that I expect the power to come. An intriguing name for deeper leagues where the underlying data suggests more than the stat line performance.

After mentioning him last week, Franyerber Montilla (Tigers) hit his first home run on the season, and added two more stolen bases to his total, as he raised his weighted runs created plus by 20 points landing just outside the top five. Arrow up.

Yeremi Cabrera (Rangers) snapped out of his slump in a big way, hitting a home run, stealing two bases, and raising his wRC+ by 30 points. A slugger with huge exit velocities but contact rates well below average, Cabrera is hurt tremendously by his Statcast data. RoboScout lowers him from No. 2 overall to just outside the Top 25 when considering how much he has struggled making contact so far this season, sporting an in-zone miss rate of nearly 33%. RoboScout is expressing caution.

From the pitcher side of things. Ovis Portes (Red Sox) pitched three innings on Monday with five strikeouts and no walks with a robust two-pitch mix of a 95 mph four-seam fastball with life that has hit 98 mph and an 80 mph slider. Samuel Sanchez (Dodgers) is another intriguing name after he struck out seven on Monday with no walks over four innings. Throwing over the top, his four-seam sits 93 mph, and he has a slider and a curve, both with downward bite. He’s inconsistent with his release point right now with his fastball being released from a point three inches higher than his secondaries, potentially tipping off more advanced hitters.

Another interesting Dodger arm belongs to Christian Zazueta. The righthander deploys a four-to-five pitch mix–depending on how you classify–headed by his low-slot four-seamer that comes in flat at 92 mph and has over a foot of arm side run and a 79 mph slider that has a foot of horizontal sweep itself. He also has a changeup, cutter and curveball. The ingredients are raw right now but RoboScout currently has the teenager as a top three arm in the complex league.

Low-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

1Lazaro MontesSEA100100
2Jonny FarmeloSEA8897
3Colt EmersonSEA9297
4Kevin McGonigleDET8797
5Jeral PerezLAD8092
6Ralphy VelazquezCLE8189
7Jaison ChourioCLE7486
8Aidan SmithSEA8486
9Blake MitchellKCR7785
10Tai PeeteSEA7584
11Josue De PaulaLAD6984
12Zyhir HopeLAD6783
13Josue BricenoDET6882
14Angel GenaoCLE6581
15Michael ArroyoSEA7280
16Aidan MillerPHI7179
17Cristofer TorinARI7179
18Max ClarkDET6579
19Jesus BaezNYM6778
20Alfredo DunoCIN7877
21Bryce EldridgeSFG6277
22Leandro AriasBAL5675
23Nazzan ZanetelloBOS6974
24Marco VargasNYM5473
25Juan BaezMIL6072

Jonny Farmelo (Mariners No. 6 prospect) climbs up to the second spot after hitting a home run and stealing two more bases, bringing his season total to 16 bags. RoboScout sees the outfielder as a 20 home run, 20 stolen base hitter with good batting average and on base percentage and a better than league average wRC+.

Angel Genao (Guardians No. 12 prospect) continues adding to his case of top sleeper prospect of 2024 with a home run and three stolen bases last week and entering the top 15.

After his 26 Complex League plate appearances rated as a top-15 performance by RoboScout, Leandro Arias (Orioles) debuts in the Low-A rankings just outside the top 20. The middle infielder lights up all of his Statcast lollipops and has improved his contact, chase, and barrel rates from 2023 while also adding over 100 points to his xwOBAcon. We had him as an Oriole prospect to know beyond the Top 30 and he’s quickly becoming one of my favorite prospects.

Low-A Pitchers (min 10 IP)

1Matt WilkinsonCLE100100
2Quinn MathewsSTL8594
3Jonah TongNYM9194
4Alejandro RosarioTEX8393
5George KlassenPHI8192
6Santiago SuarezTBR8192
7Didier FuentesATL7688
8Grant TaylorCHW7186
9Bishop LetsonMIL7685
10Yujanyer HerreraMIL8384
11Jarlin SusanaWSN6780
12Thomas WhiteMIA7180
13Jace KaminskaCOL7179
14Kohl DrakeTEX7678
15Barrett KentLAA7278
16Noble MeyerMIA6677
17Michael ForretBAL7277
18Welinton HerreraCOL6477
19Manuel RodriguezMIL7376
20Luis De LeonBAL7476
21Darlin SaladinSTL7676
22Travis SykoraWSN7176
23Luis SernaNYY7476
24Tyler GoughSEA6076
25Gary Gill HillTBR7475

Grant Taylor (White Sox) has been extremely impressive in his brief stint so far with a 96 mph four-seam fastball, a 91 mph cutter, an 87 mph slider and an 80 mph curveball. Almost as impressive as the stuff–which our internal model has as some of the best in Low-A–is the resultant performance, with a 41% strikeout minus walk rate which is the third highest in the league of any pitcher with at least 11 innings. With only a 2% walk rate in Low-A and a 32% ball rate across both levels that he’s pitched at, it seems like the 2023 second-round pick’s recovery of his command after Tommy John surgery is ahead of schedule. Arrow way up for me.

Alejandro Rosario (Rangers No. 23 prospect) carved up the Low-A Nationals team to the tune of 11 strikeouts and only one base runner over six innings this weekend, catapulting into the top five. Considering his stuff, this type of dominance isn’t all that unexpected. His three-pitch arsenal consists of a 97 mph four seam fastball from a low 5-foot-4-inch release slot that comes in flat and with 16 inches of arm side run, an 84 mph slider that gets 50% whiffs, and a changeup that batters have only managed to generate a 0.100 xwOBA against and itself generates over 50% whiffs. With the sixth-highest strikeout minus walk rate amongst Low-A starters with at least 20 innings, he’s already on the prospect radar–but once you fold in the above average stuff, you can feel more confident that it is sustainable performance. For Josh’s live look, read this

High-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

1Luke KeaschallMIN100100
2Carter JensenKCR10099
3Sal StewartCIN8789
4Xavier IsaacTBR8486
5Alex FreelandLAD7782
6Cam CollierCIN8381
7Henry BolteOAK8581
8Yohendrick PinangoCHC7480
9Ethan SalasSDP8480
10Jefferson RojasCHC7577
11Mike BoeveMIL7076
12C.J. KayfusCLE7275
13Jay Allen IICIN8175
14Ricardo OlivarMIN7174
15Luke AdamsMIL7274
16Thayron LiranzoLAD7274
17Sebastian WalcottTEX8374
18Hector RodriguezCIN7074
19Samuel ZavalaCHW6873
20Nate FurmanCLE6572
21Pedro RamirezCHC6972
22Hendry MendezPHI6370
23Joe MackMIA7070
24Dylan O’RaeMIL7069
25Cooper IngleCLE6268

Sal Stewart (Reds No. 7 prospect) just continues to win over RoboScout with another home run this week. Although he only has four home runs and four stolen bases on the year, the fact that he’s in High-A in his age 20 season with a 144 wRC+ means that RoboScout sees him as a 20 home run bat with a better than average batting average and OBP. Stewart turned some heads in the second half of last year and this year has improved his contact, chase, and barrel rates while also adding a tick to his 90th percentile exit velocity. Most encouragingly, he isn’t only producing against fastballs–in fact, against non-fastballs, both his contact rate and his xwOBAcon are more than 1 standard deviation better than league average. An extremely polished hitter.

Ever since being promoted to High-A Bowling Green, Tre’ Morgan (Rays No. 21 prospect) has been raking. He has a plus contact rate and plus barrel rate but only a league average 90th percentile exit velocity. Nonetheless, a 269 wRC+ over 52 plate appearances–combined with his 147 wRC+ in 115 plate appearances in Low-A–has RoboScout projecting him to be an above average hitter at peak, albeit with below-average power. An interesting note is that after stealing nine bases in Low-A, Morgan has only attempted one steal in High-A.

Despite hitting eight home runs and stealing six bases, with a 160 wRC+ in just over 160 plate appearances since April 20, Jared Serna (Yankees No. 19 prospect) RoboScout still doesn’t have the Mexican-born infielder as high in the rankings as expected. The underlying statcast data is solid with a 104 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and a better than average contact rate and barrel rate. He’s a top 250 fantasy prospect for me but not much higher than that right now and his recent performance is being viewed more as a hot streak rather than as a change in true talent.

High-A Pitchers (min 13 IP)

1Noah SchultzCHW99100
2Luis PeralesBOS9899
3Owen MurphyATL10098
4Zebby MatthewsMIN8890
5Jaden HammDET9689
6Chase DollanderCOL8789
7Ryan LobusTEX8484
8Brett WichrowskiMIL8184
9Moises ChaceBAL7982
10Quinn MathewsSTL9481
11Winston SantosTEX8580
12Peter HeubeckLAD7680
13Nolan McLeanNYM7980
14Sean SullivanCOL7479
15Alessandro ErcolaniPIT8676
16Austin PetersonCLE7076
17Aidan CurryTEX7475
18Cam SchlittlerNYY7175
19Trevor MartinTBR8275
20Edgar PortesBAL7474
21Andry LaraWSN7874
22Jake BlossHOU7174
23Rhett LowderCIN7573
24Andrew MorrisMIN7073
25Juan NunezBAL8173

A newly qualified name is Ryan Lobus (Rangers) who RoboScout currently ranks seventh–higher than other more highly regarded pitchers at High-A Hickory: Mitch Bratt, Winston Santos and Aidan Curry. He has the highest swinging strike rate and strikeout rate amongst his fellow Hickory hurlers, as well as the lowest xFIP. His four-pitch mix of 80 mph slider, two 91 mph fastballs and a splitter comes in from an extremely low release point, resulting in over 17 inches of arm side run on the two seam and 12 inches of glove side run on the slider. Another example of a non-traditional look leading to better-than-expected results. If he can keep the walk rate in the single digits, this nondrafted free agent has a chance to stick as a starter.

An interesting name with big stuff and excellent recent performance is 24-year-old Brandyn Garcia (Mariners). Another pitcher with a unique slot, the southpaw has a 94 mph two-seamer with an astonishing 19 inches of run and an 85 mph slider that has nearly of horizontal sweep. With a 1.25 WHIP, 2.25 ERA over his last 28 innings, Garcia has generated a 64% groundball rate. On the season, he isn’t quite in the top 25 but he has been ascending in the last six weeks. With a strike rate of only 60%, as is often the case, his command will be the deciding factor in whether he can stick as a starter.

Despite not qualifying for the list yet, I would be remiss to neglect mentioning that in his first 10 innings at High-A Lake County after obliterating Low-A, “Tugboat” Matt Wilkinson (Guardians) has a 41% strikeout rate and 3% walk rate. At some point, we will need to acknowledge that despite the “stuff” not lighting up traditional pitch models, the unique look and release is undeniably leading to outstanding performance.

Double-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

1Emmanuel RodriguezMIN100100
2Agustin RamirezNYY9597
3Matthew LugoBOS9394
4Alex FreelandLAD8892
5Carson WilliamsTBR9392
6Moises BallesterosCHC8790
7Cole YoungSEA8890
8Harry FordSEA8585
9Roman AnthonyBOS7883
10Yohendrick PinangoCHC7682
11Samuel BasalloBAL8782
12Jett WilliamsNYM7581
13Colby ThomasOAK7478
14Hao-Yu LeeDET8078
15Deyvison De Los SantosARI8377
16Marcelo MayerBOS7477
17Zac VeenCOL8076
18Dalton RushingLAD6674
19Brooks BaldwinCHW7274
20Jacob WilsonOAK7173
21Kyle TeelBOS7873
22Tyler LocklearSEA6970
23Mike BoeveMIL6170
24James TriantosCHC6269
25Dylan CrewsWSN6369

For the first time, Dylan Crews (Nationals No. 2 prospect) enters the top 25 after tallying a home run and a stolen base this past week. On the season, the outfielder has a wRC+ of 130 with four homers and nine stolen bases. Disappointing no doubt, but he’s set a new max exit velocity as a professional at 114 mph off the bat, and his 90th percentile exit velocity is over 105 mph–essentially the same as Matt Shaw (Cubs No. 3 prospect) and Brady House (Nationals No. 3 prospect).

Adael Amador (Rockies) has been a huge disappointment this year at Double-A Hartford but has salvaged some of his season somewhat with a three home run, three stolen base performance this past week. Despite the week’s batting average being north of .400, his season’s triple slash is an anemic .176/.328/.264. He still projects to be a 20 home run and 20 stolen base bat at peak–with Coors as his home park ensuring a high confidence level of achieving that. He is still a Top 100 fantasy prospect for me, but the shine has definitely come off what was once one of the highest regarded hit tools in the minors.

With both hitting three home runs this week, Dalton Rushing (Dodgers No. 2 prospect) and Kyle Teel (Red Sox No. 3 prospect) climb into the top 25 for the first time on the season. With arguably the most impressive Statcast data in the minor leagues, Rushing is a top 75 fantasy prospect for me, especially in OBP leagues, even if he moves off of the catcher position. Teel is within my personal Top 100 and is rewarding the patience of fantasy managers who were concerned about his slow start.

Double-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

1Zebby MatthewsMIN93100
2Tink HenceSTL10096
3Yilber DiazARI9395
4Carson PalmquistCOL9295
5Spencer SchwellenbachATL9594
6Chandler ChamplainKCR9794
7Ben CaspariusLAD8593
8Blade TidwellNYM8593
9Ian SeymourTBR10093
10Thomas HarringtonPIT8590
11Brandon YoungBAL9390
12Braxton AshcraftPIT8689
13Justin WrobleskiLAD8289
14Zach PenrodBOS9288
15Doug NikhazyCLE8688
16Jackson JobeDET7887
17Tyler StuartNYM8386
18Mason AdamsCHW9285
19Ty MaddenDET8684
20Miguel UllolaHOU7984
21Jacob MisiorowskiMIL7684
22Mason BarnettKCR8583
23Brandon SproatNYM8182
24Justin JarvisNYM8082
25Ian MejiaATL8581

After Geoff and I wrote about him last week, Spencer Schwellenbach (Braves) got the call and had a solid major league debut against the Nationals.

Climbing inexorably up the rankings to No. 11 is Brandon Young (Orioles). With a 41% strikeout rate–the highest in Double-A by any starting pitcher with at least 10 innings pitched–and the highest strikeout minus walk rate from that cohort, the 25-year-old nondrafted free agent has a four-seam fastball that sits 93-94 mph. Despite his over-the-top release point, it comes in flatter than 85% of other four-seamers in the league. His five-pitch mix also includes a changeup that has an xwOBA against below .200, an 83 mph slider that gets 37% whiffs, and a curve and a cutter that both get over 40% whiffs. With excellent command, really the only thing holding him back from rising up rankings is the fact that he has averaged just over three innings per start. Questions about his stamina remain, having only thrown 53 innings in the last two years with a barking elbow.

One of the best performing Double-A pitchers over the last six weeks has been Tyler Stuart (Mets No. 20 prospect) and his four-pitch mix. His primary pitch is an 83 mph slider that gets 36% whiffs and he has two different 94 mph fastballs–a four seamer that is in the 85th percentile for flatness and a two seamer that has over a foot and a half of horizontal tail–all of which play up because of his six and a half foot extension.

Another interesting pitcher who had an excellent May, but hasn’t made the season rankings yet, was Shane Smith (Brewers)–a right hander with a 95 mph four-seam fastball that is in the 95th percentile for extension in Double-A. Also throwing an 87 mph slider and an 80 mph curve ball that has an IVB of 12 inches–approximately 10% more spike than average–over his last 25 innings, he has a 30% strikeout minus walk rate and a whiff rate on all his pitches that is higher than league average. He’s a watchlist name.

Triple-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

1James WoodWSN100100
2Jose FerminSTL8691
3Jackson HollidayBAL9189
4Coby MayoBAL8387
5Heston KjerstadBAL7883
6Kyle ManzardoCLE7582
7Miguel VargasLAD7379
8Andy PagesLAD6974
9Jonah BrideMIA6674
10Addison BargerTOR6472
11Javier SanojaMIA6472
12Tyler BlackMIL6771
13Ji Hwan BaePIT6670
14Austin MartinMIN6170
15Junior CamineroTBR6870
16Chase MeidrothBOS6169
17Niko KavadasBOS5868
18Caleb DurbinNYY6668
19Leo JimenezTOR5868
20Joey LoperfidoHOU6667
21Ryan WardLAD6367
22Jonatan ClaseSEA6367
23Brewer HicklenMIL6366
24Owen CaissieCHC6766
25Isaac CollinsMIL5566

After an underwhelming major league debut earlier this year, Addison Barger (Blue Jays No. 4 prospect) has turned it back on at Triple-A Buffalo with a 143 wRC+ in his last 100 plate appearances with as many walks as strikeouts. Under the hood, Barger doesn’t show any major flaws against off non-fastballs, with above average contact and xwOBAcon against secondaries. In other words, despite the big league disappointment, Barger should still be a league average major league bat with 20 home run power and a handful of steals. RoboScout has him No. 10 in Triple-A

On our last fantasy podcast, Geoff identified Adrian Del Castillo (Diamondbacks No. 26 prospect) as a target and the catcher jumped into the top 30 for the first time all season.

And congratulations to Daniel Schneemann (Guardians) who was mentioned in these hallowed pages a few weeks ago and was called up today to make his major league debut at the keystone. Based on RoboScout’s Triple-A promotion record, look for the Brewers to potentially call up Brewer Hicklen or the previously identified Isaac Collins in the next few weeks.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

1Paul SkenesPIT100100
2Christian ScottNYM9393
3Jack LeiterTEX7981
4Matt ManningDET7880
5Cade PovichBAL8879
6Chayce McDermottBAL7878
7David FestaMIN8277
8Carson SpiersCIN7476
9Tobias MyersMIL7175
10Elieser HernandezLAD7274
11Robert GasserMIL6973
12Slade CecconiARI7873
13Louie VarlandMIN7772
14Alek ManoahTOR7672
15Brant HurterDET7272
16Mason BlackSFG6972
17Quinn PriesterPIT8271
18Gerson GarabitoTEX7270
19Albert SuarezBAL7470
20Jhonathan DiazSEA8270
21Jacob WaguespackTBR7870
22Osvaldo BidoOAK7270
23Shaun AndersonTEX7169
24Spencer HowardSFG7369
25Sem RobberseSTL8068

Happy bidding!

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