2017 San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects

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TOP 10 PROSPECTS
1. Anderson Espinoza, rhp
2. Manuel Margot, of
3. Hunter Renfroe, of
4. Cal Quantrill, rhp
5. Adrian Morejon, lhp
6. Luis Urias, 2b/ss
7. Jacob Nix, rhp
8. Michael Gettys, of
9. Dinelson Lamet, rhp
10. Josh Naylor, 1b

Everything that could go wrong for the Padres did go wrong in the major leagues in 2016.

The Padres not only suffered their sixth straight losing season, but posted their worst record in that time with a 68-94 mark. First-year manager Andy Green injected energy and optimism into the clubhouse, but it wasn’t enough to overcome the calamities that struck the franchise.

After a 16-4 shellacking at the hands of the Mariners on May 31 that dropped the Padres’ record to 20-33, executive chairman Ron Fowler publicly called the team “miserable failures” on their flagship radio station.

And so began a fire sale, with veterans James Shields, Matt Kemp, Fernando Rodney, Melvin Upton, Andrew Cashner and Drew Pomeranz all traded by August, starting the latest rebuilding process in a franchise history full of them.

Even the fire sale didn’t go smoothly. Major League Baseball suspended general manager A.J. Preller in September for 30 days after ruling he did not properly disclose relevant medical information to the Red Sox in their July trade of Pomeranz. Another trade with the Marlins was modified after righthander Colin Rea, one of the players the Padres traded, suffered a torn UCL in his first start with Miami. The two parties reworked the deal to return Rea to the Padres and promising righthander Luis Castillo to the Marlins.

Things got even worse after the season, when team president and CEO Mike Dee was fired without explanation.

With the front office in disarray and the major league product delivering its worst performance this decade, the season’s lone positives could be found on the farm. Homegrown prospects such as outfielders Hunter Renfroe and Michael Gettys, second baseman Luis Urias and righthanders Jacob Nix and Dinelson Lamet all took significant steps forward in their development. Offseason acquisitions such as outfielder Manuel Margot, second baseman Carlos Asuaje, lefthander Logan Allen and righthander Enyel de los Santos showed promise.

Most importantly, the midseason trades of veterans yielded an intriguing haul of prospect talent, led by righthander Anderson Espinoza, first baseman Josh Naylor, righthander Chris Paddack and shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.

The Padres furthered bolstered their system with three of the 2016 draft’s top 25 picks, and then shattered spending records during the international signing period. San Diego spent upwards of $60 million signing international amateur talent, including penalties for overages, and brought in eight of the top 50 international prospects in the class, including three of the top six.

The injection of talent from all avenues turned the Padres system into one of the game’s deepest. Now, the team must develop it to end years of poor performance and reverse the entrenched skepticism in San Diego.

1. Anderson Espinoza, rhp |

Born: March 9, 1998. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 160. Signed: Venezuela, 2014. Signed by: Eddie Romero/Manny Padron (Red Sox).

SCOUTING GRADES

Fastball: 70

Curveball: 60

Changeup: 70

Control: 55

Based on 20-80 scouting scale—where 50 represents major league average—and future projection rather than present tools.

Background: While some teenage international standouts fly under the radar, Espinoza is one whose promise has been evident for some time. Considered the top available pitcher by a wide margin in the 2014 international class, he signed with the Red Sox for $1.8 million. If Espinoza felt any pressure from the lofty expectations he never showed it, zooming all the way from the Dominican Summer League to low Class A in 2015, his age-17 season, and ranking as one of baseball’s top prospects one year after signing. The Red Sox were reluctant to part with him but ultimately did in a one-for-one swap for Drew Pomeranz two days after Pomeranz pitched in the 2016 All-Star Game as a member of the host Padres.

Scouting Report: The lean Espinoza is not physically intimidating but possesses a strong lower half and electric arm speed that allows him to nonetheless pitch with elite velocity. He is not dissimilar from fellow 6-foot flamethrower Yordano Ventura in that regard. Espinoza’s 95-98 mph four-seam fastball possesses so much late tail away from lefthanded batters that Padres broadcaster and former major league pitcher Mark Grant confused it for a two-seamer—a mistake made by others before him—and Espinoza commands it masterfully to both sides of the plate. His main secondary pitch is a mid-80s changeup that is above-average on a bad day and “simply fantastic” in the words of one opposing scout on a good one. His upper-70s curveball lacks consistency but still flashes plus with 11-to-5 movement. Spotty command of his breaking pitches led to Espinoza getting hit more often at low Class A in 2016 than his pure stuff indicates he should, and he also struggled with trying to be too fine at times rather than attacking hitters. He admitted being a bit shell-shocked after being traded and struggled in his first few outings in the Padres system, but he adjusted and finished strong with 10 strikeouts and just two runs allowed in his final two starts at Fort Wayne. He continued that with a dominant 1-2-3 inning in the Padres’ futures game at Petco Park on Oct. 7, where he struck out two Rangers batters. His exceptional performance on a big stage at Petco was nothing new for Espinoza, who draws raves for his ability to reach back and find something extra in big moments. He possesses exceptional makeup and intelligence, signified both by his poise on the mound and the fact he learned English almost fluently by age 18, less than two years after first coming to the U.S.

The Future: Ventura is a common comparison for Espinoza in terms of size and raw stuff, but Espinoza does it easier and possesses superior makeup and maturity that should help him surpass the Royals righthander. He has all the tools to become a front-of-the-rotation ace and will look to solidify that profile atop high Class A Lake Elsinore’s rotation to begin 2017. If he stays healthy and all goes according to plan, Espinoza should be in line to make his Padres debut by 2018 as a 20-year-old.

2016 Club	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Greenville (LoA)	5	8	4.38	17	17	0	0	76	77	2	27	72	.269
Fort Wayne (LoA)	1	3	4.73	8	7	0	0	32	38	1	8	28	.290

2. Manuel Margot, of |

Born: Sept. 18, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 180. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2011. Signed by: Manny Nanita/Craig Shipley (Red Sox).

Background: The Red Sox signed Margot for $800,000 as a 16-year old international free agent in 2011 and watched him stand out at every level as he ascended their system. He was a Top 100 Prospect when the Padres acquired him and three other players for closer Craig Kimbrel after the 2015 season.

Scouting Report: Margot possesses strong wrists and exceptional feel for the barrel, allowing him to make consistent hard contact. His plus speed helps his bat play up, turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples, and his control of the strike zone was uncanny for a player his age at Triple-A. The sum of all of that profiles Margot as a plus offensive player, even with fringe-average power. Margot dramatically improved his reads and routes throughout 2016, which combined with his superb raw speed and athleticism, turned him into one of the top defensive outfielders in the upper minors. His above-average arm also took a huge leap forward in 2016, with corrected footwork leading to more strength behind his throws to the point he led the Pacific Coast League with 18 assists.

The Future: Margot has everything you want in a top-of-the-order center fielder and will begin to fill that role with the Padres in 2017.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
El Paso (AAA)	.304	.351	.426	517	98	157	21	12	6	55	36	64	30
San Diego (MLB)	.243	.243	.305	37	4	9	4	1	0	3	0	7	2

3. Hunter Renfroe, of |

Born: Jan. 28, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 220. Drafted: Mississippi State, 2013 (1st round). Signed by: Andrew Salvo.

Background: Renfroe was a hometown hero at Mississippi State, where he anchored the Bulldogs’ lineup and led them to the College World Series as junior. The Padres drafted him 13th overall after that season in 2013 and he signed for $2.678 million.

Scouting Report: Renfroe’s carrying tool has long been his mammoth raw power, but up until 2016 it was largely to his pull side and came with a 25 percent career strikeout rate. He closed his stance and shortened his stroke in 2016 at Triple-A El Paso and had his best season yet, hitting 10 of his Pacific Coast League-leading 30 home runs the opposite way and cutting his strikeout rate to 20 percent as he rolled to the circuit’s MVP award. He continued to mash after his first big league callup in September with four home runs in 11 games—including a titanic blast onto the roof of the Western Metal Supply Co. building, beyond the left-field wall at Petco Park. Renfroe’s improved feel to hit and massive power comes with a double-plus arm in right field and the athleticism to hold down the position ably.

The Future: Renfroe’s aggressiveness will keep his strikeouts high and his walks low, but the swing adjustments he has made give him a better chance to annually reach his 30-homer potential. He will be the Padres’ Opening Day right fielder in 2017.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
El Paso (AAA)	.306	.336	.557	533	95	163	34	5	30	105	22	115	5
San Diego (MLB)	.371	.389	.800	35	8	13	3	0	4	14	1	5	0

4. Cal Quantrill, rhp |

Born: Feb. 10, 1995. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 165. Drafted: Stanford, 2016 (1st round). Signed by: Sam Ray.

Background: The son of former Blue Jays all-star reliever Paul Quantrill was drafted by the Yankees in the 26th round out of high school. He instead went to Stanford, where he became the first freshman pitcher to start Opening Day since Mike Mussina in 1988. Quantrill pitched just three games as a sophomore before requiring Tommy John surgery, which kept him out all of his junior season as well. Undeterred, the Padres drafted him eighth overall and signed him for $3,963,045.

Scouting Report: Quantrill displayed no ill effects from surgery once he got into the Padres’ system, showing a 92-96 mph fastball and diving 81-84 mph changeup that was considered the best in the 2016 draft class. His slider showed vast improvement by sitting 83-84 mph with late bite to become an above-average offering. Quantrill’s command remains shaky post-surgery, but he was around the strike zone with all of his pitches during his pro debut. He possesses the poise and pitchability expected from the son of a former major leaguer, and his competitiveness earns raves.

The Future: Quantrill hasn’t pitched a full season since 2014, so the Padres will manage his workload carefully in 2017 at low Class A Fort Wayne.

2016 Club	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
AZL Padres (R)	0	2	5.27	5	5	0	0	14	12	0	2	16	.231
Tri-City (SS)	0	2	1.93	5	5	0	0	19	15	0	2	28	.205
Fort Wayne (LoA)	0	1	17.36	2	2	0	0	5	12	1	4	2	.522

5. Adrian Morejon, lhp |

Born: Feb. 27, 1999. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 195. Signed: Cuba, 2016.

Background: Morejon jumped on the international radar when he was named MVP of the 15U World Cup in 2014 while pitching for the Cuban national team. His biggest moment came in the gold medal game, when he threw 124 pitches in a complete-game, 6-3 victory against the U.S. with 12 strikeouts and one walk. Morejon became a talent considered on par with any top-10 draft pick, and the Padres signed him for an eye-popping $11 million in July 2016.

Scouting Report: Morejon throws a 91-93 mph fastball that touches 96 with an athletic, easy delivery that portends more velocity as the teen southpaw’s body matures. His ability to spin a future plus curveball draws the highest praise from scouts, and he throws two different changeups—one a knuckle-change with late diving action and the other a more traditional changeup with sink and run. Both project above-average. Morejon’s above-average command, stuff, arm action and feel for pitching are all advanced for his age and make few opposing evaluators doubt the wisdom of signing him, though some shied away from the price tag.

The Future: The Padres compare Morejon with the Dodgers’ Julio Urias, while scouts outside the organization compare his delivery and stuff with Padres 2012 first-rounder Max Fried. He is targeted for 100 innings and will begin the year in extended spring training.

2016 Club

ERA

AVG

Did not play—signed 2017 contract

6. Luis Urias, 2b/ss |

Born: June 3, 1997. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-9. Wt.: 160. Signed: Mexico, 2013. Signed by: Chad MacDonald/Robert Rowley.

Background: The Padres purchased Urias from the Mexican League’s Mexico City franchise when he 16, intrigued by his bat control and plate discipline. He has rewarded that interest by posting a career .317 career average in the minors with more walks than strikeouts.

Scouting Report: Urias’ foundation for success is his approach. He rarely swings at anything outside the strike zone, forcing pitchers to come to him. When they do, his quick hands and elite hand-eye coordination allow him to barrel any velocity, while those same tools allow him to track breaking balls and square them up as well. Using those attributes as his base, Urias hit .330 at high Class A Lake Elsinore in 2016 to win the California League batting title and MVP award despite being the circuit’s youngest player on Opening Day. He faces questions about his below-average speed and power, though he showed progress on the latter front by slugging .505 in the second half of 2016. Defensively he is above-average at second base with soft hands and excellent footwork, with an above-average arm strong enough to make throws from deep in the hole at shortstop. His range is best suited for second base.

The Future: Urias resembles 16-year big league vet Placido Polanco in terms of frame and skill set, and he has perennial .300-hitting ability to match. He will begin 2017 at Double-A.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Lake Elsinore (HiA)	.330	.397	.440	466	71	154	26	5	5	52	40	36	7
El Paso (AAA)	.444	.667	.778	9	6	4	0	0	1	3	5	1	1

7. Jacob Nix, rhp |

Born: Jan. 9, 1996. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 200. Drafted: HS—Bradenton, Fla., 2015 (3rd round). Signed by: Chris Kelly.

Background: The Astros drafted Nix in the fifth round out of Los Alamitos (Calif.) High in 2014 but failed to sign him after the Brady Aiken debacle curtailed their bonus pool. Nix, a UCLA commit, instead went to postgrad IMG Academy in Florida and went to the Padres a year later in the third round. He signed for $900,000.

Scouting Report: Long described as physical, athletic and projectable, Nix found a consistent, repeatable delivery in 2016 and saw his stuff take off at low Class A Fort Wayne in 2016. He recorded one of the highest average velocities in the Padres system with a 93-95 mph fastball that touched 97, and he held that velocity deep into his starts. His curveball shows improved depth thanks to a consistent release point and now projects to plus. It has 12-to-6 action and earned recognition as the best breaking pitch in the Midwest League. Nix’s above-average changeup also began getting swings and misses in the bottom of the zone with his improved delivery. His control leapt forward as well. He cut his walk rate nearly in half from 2015 to 2016, highlighted by a midsummer stretch where he walked only one batter in six starts.

The Future: Everything is trending up for Nix, who will begin 2017 at high Class A Lake Elsinore and projects as a quality mid-rotation starter.

2016 Club	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Fort Wayne (LoA)	3	7	3.93	25	25	0	0	105	115	5	20	90	.280

8. Michael Gettys, of |

Born: Oct. 22, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 203. Drafted: HS—Gainesville, Ga., 2014 (2nd round). Signed by: Andrew Salvo.

Background: Gettys was an enigmatic talent in high school who posted off-the-charts measurables at showcases but often disappointed in games. The Padres gambled on his raw upside and drafted him 51st overall in 2014 and signed him for $1.3 million to forgo a Georgia commitment.

Scouting Report: Gettys’ primary problem had been a lack of hitting instincts, pitch recognition and balance in the box, which led to high strikeout rates and poor quality contact in the early part of his career. He made major strides on those fronts in 2016, adding a back stretch to the start of his swing to improve his rhythm and timing, while also giving him a better look at incoming pitches. The result was a more athletic swing with less chasing and harder contact throughout the year. Center field is where Gettys really shines, using his plus speed and elite defensive instincts to track down fly balls in every direction, with double-plus arm strength to boot. His speed is limited out of the batter’s box but ticks up on the basepaths to make him a dangerous basestealing threat.

The Future: Gettys is starting to turn his loud tools into baseball skills but needs to continue improving as a hitter to reach his everyday potential. He will jump to Double-A San Antonio in 2017.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Fort Wayne (LoA)	.304	.369	.416	257	37	78	10	5	3	27	18	69	24
Lake Elsinore (HiA)	.306	.356	.468	248	40	76	13	0	9	33	17	77	9

9. Dinelson Lamet, rhp |

Born: July 18, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 187. Signed: Dominican Republic, 2014. Signed by: Randy Smith/Felix Feliz/Emenegildo Diaz/Jose Salado.

Background: The Padres signed Lamet for $100,000 as a 21-year old and he has climbed their system rapidly. He rose through three levels in 2016 to finish the year at Triple-A El Paso.

Scouting Report: Lamet possesses a strong, durable, athletic build, allowing him to repeat his delivery and hold his stuff deep into starts. His mid-90s fastball and upper-80s slider both possess sharp, late movement and grade above-average to plus. He added an 85-88 mph changeup during 2016 that evaluators project to average. The addition of the change allowed Lamet to better neutralize lefthanded batters and make it through the order a third time. The result was he led the Padres system in wins (12) and strikeouts (158) while ranking second in innings (150) and ERA (3.00). Lamet’s control is fringe-average, but the overall quality of his stuff generates plenty of swings and misses and limits hard contact.

The Future: Lamet can be a No. 4 or 5 starter with further changeup development or a high-leverage reliever if the pitch stagnates. He will begin 2017 at El Paso with a strong chance to join the Padres by midsummer.

2016 Club	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SV	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	AVG
Lake Elsinore (HiA)	7	1	2.35	12	12	0	0	65	56	4	26	54	.241
San Antonio (AA)	5	7	3.39	14	14	0	0	74	57	2	31	91	.207
El Paso (AAA)	0	2	4.22	2	2	0	0	11	13	2	4	13	.302

10. Josh Naylor, 1b |

Born: June 22, 1997. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 225. Drafted: HS—Mississauga, Ontario, 2015 (1st round). Signed by: Steve Payne (Marlins).

Background: The Marlins drafted Naylor 12th overall in 2015, making him the highest-drafted Canadian position player ever. He wowed during Futures Game batting practice in 2016 with long home runs at Petco Park, and three weeks later the Padres acquired him from the Marlins in a deal for Andrew Cashner.

Scouting Report: Plus raw power is Naylor’s carrying tool and will have to be because he is a thick-bodied lefthanded batter limited to first base. He generates his power using a strong lower half and quick hands, creating elite bat speed to drive the ball with authority. Naylor is presently able to tap into his power on fastballs but has trouble with offspeed pitches, especially against lefthanders. He also makes contact at an above-average rate for a power hitter. Defensively he is prone to errors because his focus wavers, but in short bursts will show unexpected athleticism. Naylor faced questions about his maturity when he was drafted, and questions still linger after he injured Marlins minor league teammate Stone Garrett with a knife in what team officials described as a “prank gone bad.”

The Future: Naylor will begin 2017 at high Class A Lake Elsinore as he tries to live up to his middle-of-the order potential.

2016 Club	AVG	OBP	SLG	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB
Greensboro (LoA)	.269	.317	.430	342	42	92	24	2	9	54	22	62	10
Lake Elsinore (HiA)	.252	.264	.353	139	17	35	5	0	3	21	3	22	1