Moderator: Kyle Glaser will be here Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET to chat about the Padres.
Kyle Glaser: Hey there folks. We’ve got over 200 questions in the queue for this chat, so I won’t be able to get to them all, but I’ll try and answer as many as I can. Thanks and look forward to chatting
Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of these guys are likely to make the BA 100?
Kyle Glaser: Give Frank credit. He always has the first question in the queue, and it's always the same. He's nothing if not consistent. The answer is three - Espinoza, Margot and Renfroe, but they'll all be top 50, likely top 40. In the prospect game, it's better to have three guys in the top 50 than five guys in the top 100 but only one of them top 50, so don't stress the Padres won't have as many top 100 guys as some other systems.
J.P. (Springfield, IL): Was Chris Paddack close to making your list, and what did you think of his year overall, prior to sucumbing to surgery?
Kyle Glaser: Chris Paddack would have been No. 7 if not for his Tommy John. That throws a serious wrench into him, especially since it means he'll be out all of 2017 (he had the surgery in August) and remember that he missed the first six weeks of the season with biceps tendonitis too. His ceiling is high, but his risk is extreme. That risk because of his injuries ultimately knocked him out of the 10.
Grant (NYC): What does Eric Lauer project as - a midrotation SP possibly, or are you not as optimistic?
Kyle Glaser: Lauer as of right now projects as a pure No. 5 starter. Scouts all around described him as “fine” and his stuff “good but nothing special”. Every one I spoke with penciled him in as a No. 5. A safe No. 5, but a No. 5 nonetheless. That said, he had pitched a long college season and has some room to grow, so there is a chance the stuff ticks up a bit and he becomes more. For now though, a pure No. 5 is what he profiles as
Danny (San Diego, ca): Which position fits Hudson Potts best - SS or 3B? Do you think the Padres made a wise selection drafting him where they did?
Kyle Glaser: 3B. The Padres already acknowledge that. He's a pure 3B moving forward. A lot of scouts outside the Padres org praised them for the pick after seeing Potts in rookie ball and short season. He was considered an overdraft at draft time, but most of the early reviews on him are that the Padres were right on taking him where they did.
J.P. (Springfield, IL): About how many years do you believe Jorge Ona will need in the minors, if all goes well? Which outfield position suits him best?
Kyle Glaser: At least three. Keep in mind by the time opening day 2017 comes around, he will not have played consistent game action since summer 2014. He sat a year for Industriales in Cuba, barely playing, then left the country and spent a year working out, and then signed with the Padres and has been doing academy/instructs work. He has a lot of rust and a lot of catching up to do. He's a left fielder long term as long as he's with the Padres. Doesn't move well enough to play RF at Petco.
Sam (San Francisco, CA): What can you tell us about Reggie Lawson, including his ceiling/floor?
Kyle Glaser: Lawson has the look that scouts drool over, but he's raw even by HS pitcher standards. Fastball command, breaking ball velocity, third pitch development, consistency of mechanics, all are very, very raw, so much so he's a ways behind other HS pitchers from his class, such as Mason Thompson. It's so raw, his floor is he never gets out of rookie ball/short season if he doesn't improve. His ceiling? Well, again, we don't know it because it's all so raw. He's a 5 year project.
Eric (Dallas, TX): Could we see Morejon at the back of the top 100 list next month, or is he still too "raw" for that to happen?
Kyle Glaser: It probably won't happen because it's simply all guesswork with him at this point. Other guys in the back end top 100 consideration will be guys who have shown they can perform in pro ball against other elite professional talents. Morejon is a guy we think can, but we don't have that track record yet. He's likely going to have to wait.
Wayne (San Diego, CA): Please reassure us Buddy Reed won't be the second coming of Donavan Tate. Please? Where will he reside in the Handbook?
Kyle Glaser: He isn't the second coming of Donovan Tate because he plays hard, has a great head on his shoulders, is a leader in the clubhouse and has a great work ethic...none of which will ever be said about Donovan Tate. At the same time, very, very few believe Buddy Reed can hit or will ever hit, so the burden is on him to show he can. As to where he lands in the Handbook, it comes out shortly and you can see for yourself there.
J.P. (Springfield, IL): How confident are you that Tatis Jr. can remain at short in the coming years?
Kyle Glaser: Reasonably optimistic. You watch him play there and it's apparent he can. I was surprised at just how lithe and smooth he is over there. It's the real deal. It's a false myth that guys of a certain height don't play SS. Tatis is 6-3 and likely to stay about there now that he's 18. Same height as Troy Tulowitzki, shorter than Carlos Correa and Corey Seager, and only one inch taller Brandon Crawford and Andrelton Simmons. Obviously if he packs on 30 pounds of bad weight it's a different story, but it's apparent when you see him he has all the skills needed to stick there.
Harry (Brownsville, TX): Did Austin Smith's stock fall in your opinion? Not a fan of all those BB's, but is he likely to remain a starter?
Kyle Glaser: His stock cratered, and that's in everyone' s opinion. This past season Smith showed himself to be a one-pitch pitcher whose one pitch is a 93-95 mph fastball he can't control. Plus questions about his fitness, makeup and overall desire to improve...forget starter/reliever profile, he has a lot of work to do just to show he'll ever pitch above A-ball. He doesn't use his offspeed pitches enough, and when he does they're not very good, and his fastball is either all over the place or right over the plate where a hitter can crush it. He needs to rebuild a lot of things. We'll see if he does it.
Ray Kroc (San Deigo): Where do you think the following youngsters fit in, were they considered for the top 10? Do they fall among 11-15? Hudson Potts, Luis Almanzar, Fernando Tatis Jr. Thanks Ray
Kyle Glaser: None of them received much top 10 consideration, not with so many performers with high ceilings in full-season ball. That said, they're all in the 11-20 range and have a reasonable chance to move into the top 10 next year.
Chris (San Diego): Where does an Eguy Rosario fit in the Padres system?
Kyle Glaser: As an intriguing guy to keep an eye on. He’d be 20-30 in many other systems, got squeezed out by the depth of this one. Still, has some skills to like and is worth watching
Chris (San Diego): How would you rate the Padres farm system? Do we have the deepest farm system right now?
Kyle Glaser: It's one of the top 10 in the game, and yes it is the deepest. What I mean by that is the Padres No. 8 prospect is fairly middle of the pack among other teams No. 8 prospects, but they're No. 17 prospect is probably the best No. 17 prospect of any other system and the guys who missed the cut as 31-35 would have been Top 20 guys in a lot of other systems. Outside of Margot, Renfroe and maybe Lamet, there isn't much in terms of developed, impact talent ready to go, which keeps them from being an upper, upper tier system. At the same time, there are lots of really talented guys in the low minors, and at least a few of them should turn into something. There's strength in numbers, and the Padres have that more than probably any other system.
Chris (San Diego): Are there are now International Free Agents that the Padres can add to their haul before the new CBA takes effect?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, the international signing window remains open until June 15, so the Padres still have six more months to sign international players as part of this year's class.
Chris (San Diego): Who are a couple sleeper prospects that you think could be impact prospects in a few years?
Kyle Glaser: Tirso Ornelas. He wasn't as well known as Almanzar, Arias, Rosario, Morejon, Ona, etc in this year's international signing haul, but multiple scouts who saw him in instructs brought him up unprompted as a guy who really impressed them, even more than some of the aforementioned players. Big strong power hitting lefty, definitely a guy to keep tabs on.
Chris (San Diego): Do you think Javier Guerra or Ruddy Giron can get their careers back on track?
Kyle Glaser: Sure. Depends how hard they're willing to work, take to coaching and apply what they've learned in game situations. They both are skilled players who visibly have things to work on, and if they address them there's no reason they can't progress.
Chris (Biloxi): Which pitcher from the 2016 draft will make it to the majors first?
Kyle Glaser: I do think it will be Quantrill. All reports are he's healthy, and he's simply better than Eric Lauer and Joey Lucchesi, the two other guys you'd consider for this. Lake Bachar is one to watch though. He could move quickly as a reliever.
Chris (Biloxi): What would you expect from the Padres focus on in the 2017 draft?
Kyle Glaser: Drafting the best players available. No reason to overthink this folks. The Padres will grab talent wherever they can get it, at any position, from any level of schooling. Best available player, that's what they'll take.
Chris (Biloxi): What type of career do you expect from Phil Maton?
Kyle Glaser: Really good 7th-8th inning guy for a long time. Wouldn't be surprised if he follows a similar career arc to another former Padres relief prospect, Brad Brach.
What the heck is going on here? (Rooting for a much better team.): Ok, so the Friars let Tyson Ross walk but reward Javier Guerra with a spot on the 40 man after an abysmal season. Do you see a rebound for Guerra in your crystal ball and if so is there a path for him to the majors?
Kyle Glaser: Honestly, it's a complete toss up with Guerra. He has so much work to do mechanically and mentally as a hitter, and so much to do with his focus and effort level at shortstop, trying to predict whether he bounces back or not is foolish without seeing exactly what work he is putting in this offseason. If he put in the work, sure. If he didn't, no. It's that simple.
Chris (Biloxi): What do the Padres do with the #3 pick in the draft?
Kyle Glaser: They take the best player available. Maybe that's Jeren Kendell. Maybe that's Royce Lewis. Maybe that's Alex Faedo. Maybe that’s someone who explodes this year we aren’t focusing to hard on yet. We'll see.
Ano Egroj (Not sure, still learning my way around): Margot and Renfroe are awesome, but come on I hear this Ona guy is the next Kirby Puckett. Too little data to include him in the top 10? I have seven million friends that say he at least deserves consideration.
Kyle Glaser: Uh no. Not even close. Ona is a slugger only whose swing looked horrible in the Padres futures game. Think more Dayan Viciedo - 25 HR sure, but hitting .250 with a .725 OPS while being a liability in the corner OF, and that's if he gets his swing right. There is hope how bad he looked against live pitching in game situations was rust, it very well may have been, but a Gold Glove winning CF and Hall of Famer with a career .318 AVG like Puckett he is not in any way, shape or form.
Chris (Chula Vista): What can the Padres do to keep adding to the farm system?
Kyle Glaser: Just keep adding talent. They are weaker at the upper levels than optimal, but that should be rectified by the group moving from HiA to AA this year. The draft, trades, international, you always want to keep adding talent to your organization through any means, no matter the position.
Chris (Chula Vista): Does Lamet really stay a SP or can he become a dominant reliever? Which would provide more value?
Kyle Glaser: He stays an SP as long as his changeup comes along, which is happening. There's obviously more value in starting, so he'll stay there unless the changeup stalls.
Chris (Chula Vista): Does the Padres system have any prospects that could become an Andrew Miller super reliever?
Kyle Glaser: No. Andrew Miller was the sixth overall pick in his draft and one of the most decorated HS and college pitchers ever. People need to stop thinking every organization has one of him. They don't. The closest equivalent would be if Cal Quantrill reaches the majors as a starter, flops, and emerges as a dominant reliever six years and three teams later. That's not a situation the Padres, or anyone, is hoping for.
Chris (Chula Vista): What sort of potential does Yimmi Brasoban have? Any word on his recovery?
Kyle Glaser: He has the potential to be a pretty good middle/borderline setup reliever, a nice guy to have in your bullpen. And nothing beyond that his injection took place and they'll monitor his recovery as it moves forward. Fairly standard.
Chris (San Diego): How many of the Rule V draft picks stick through Spring Training? End of the season?
Kyle Glaser: 2 and 1.
Terrence (Oakland): With most of the Pasted pitching staff in the low minors and a few years away, what do you think of the pasted using a modified pitching rotation ( having starters pitch 3-5 innings) as a way to bring younger pitchers along sooner.
Kyle Glaser: That’s a poor way to develop starting pitchers and something they won't do, especially as they climb to higher levels. Being a starting pitcher in the majors means being able to get through 6-plus innings and a batting order 2-3 times. If you can't do that, you're hurting your team.
Andrew (Los Angeles): Who has more upside between Reggie Lawson and Mason Thompson?
Kyle Glaser: Thompson. Better command, better feel for his breaking pitches.
Chris (San Diego): Will any of the 2016 draft picks make their major league debut this season?
Kyle Glaser: No
Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): Hello, with the Padres system being one of, if not the deepest in the game, would they be considered a top 5 or top 10 system? Thank you.
Kyle Glaser: There's some debate as to whether they are top 5, but no debate they're top 10. Firmly in the top 10
Andrew (Los Angeles): How close was Fernando Tatis Jr to making the list?
Kyle Glaser: Not all that close. He's very talented and someone easy to like, but he's also an 18-year old with 44 ABs above Rookie ball and a lot of scouts questioning his ability to hit a breaking ball. He'd be top 10 in some other systems, but not in this one with so many legit prospects who also performed in full season ball. That said, with a good year in 2017 and the graduations of a few guys in the top 10, I wouldn't be surprised to see Tatis in the top 10 next year.
Andrew (Los Angeles): This has to be a top 3 system right? Seems like the prospects ommitted like Tatis, Lauer, Paddack, Potts, Ona, Thompson, Lawson, Allen, etc could rival other systems' top 10.
Kyle Glaser: Goes back to what I said in an earlier answer about this being the deepest system, but not the best. Teams like the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees all have 8-10 guys who are legit prime prospects who have succeeded at Double-A or above, which counts for more than having 20 guys who are really good but are all LoA or lower. It's a bit of sliding scale when you take risk into account.
Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): If not for Paddack's injury, would he have made the top 10?
Kyle Glaser: As discussed earlier, yes. He'd be right in at No. 7-8. His current injury complicates matters, no doubt
DR (MD): You project Fernando Tatis Jr to be a MLB shortstop at age 21, but he isn't in the top 10?
Kyle Glaser: Glad you caught that. It's more of a case of the current state of the Padres SS group. While there is a bunch of them, they're all way young, way raw, and frankly it's likely none of them will be ready by 2020. The Padres have a very serious problem, which is they not only don't have a shortstop for 2017, they likely don't have one for 2018, 2019 or 2020 either. There's going to need to be a trade. And by the way, the folks in the Padres front office openly acknowledge this and say they're trying to find a solution. But yes, Tatis was chosen simply as the best of a very unlikely group of options, even though he himself is unlikely to be their starting SS in 2020, for all his considerable talents
Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): With the Padres spending upwards of $60M in the International market and only one of those players showing up in their top 10, was it money well spent? That being said, I hope MLB does not drag their feet on Luis Robert's availability so the Padres at least have a chance to sign him before their 2 year punishment begins.
Kyle Glaser: We won't know if its money well spent for 2-3 years. That's the nature of the game with signing 16 year old international players. There was a strong consensus on Morejon, a varying (but overall not as good) consensus on Ona, and a bunch of "who knows" on the other guys, which is simply a function of their age. At the same time, don't read too much into the international guys not being in the top 10. If you're top 10 is just a bunch of recently signed 16-17 year olds in Rookie ball, you're screwed. Advanced, developed talent counts way, way more than raw talent, and the Padres will (and should) gladly take the group of guys in their 10 than having the top 10 be guys 6-7 years away.
Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Did ex-Oriole farmhand Jean Cosme make Prospect Handbook this year?
Kyle Glaser: He received consideration but ultimately didn't, simply as a function of how deep this system is. However, he's absolutely showing something and should not be discounted in the future.
Chris (San Diego): Aside from Renfroe who are some interesting power prospects in the system?
Kyle Glaser: Ona is the most interesting of the next group far and away, because he's absolutely got plus raw power, no one argues that. Simply going to be a matter of his swing and it not being what he showed in the Padres Futures game...that will determine whether he becomes a power-hitting big leaguer or the next Kalian Sams, another big, crazy strong guy with international decorations who never gets out of Double-A.
BMaz (Southwest Detroit): Where does this system fall? Top half or bottom half of MLB? It seems to be somewhere in the middle.
Kyle Glaser: It's a top 10 system. It's kind of funny. Padres fans are a little overly high on it, while non-Padres fans seem too low on it. It's not top 3, it's arguable at 4-5, but there's no legitimate argument it's lower than 10.
Wayne (Saskatchewan): Hunter Renfroe at 3? You mean the guy who walks less than paraplegics? I thought you said this system was good?
Kyle Glaser: You mean the guy who projects to hit .250-.260/30 HR/100 RBI while playing borderline gold glove defense in RF? Yeah, that's a top 3 prospect in any system system and a top 50 prospect in baseball. Yes the walks are low, but Adam Jones is an example of a guy who never walks but still punishes baseballs and is an impact player. Truthfully, the offensive line Matt Kemp put up last year – .268/.304/.499, 35 HR, 108 RBI, 36 BB, 156 K - wouldn't be out of line with Renfroe. The big difference being, Renfroe puts those up while playing sterling defense, unlike Kemp, which makes him an impact player on both sides of the ball, even with high Ks and low walks.
Matthew (San Diego): Has San Diego ever had this many great prospects before ? Also they have a nice mix of position players and pitching to go with it, did you envision when Preller took over this is the route he would take instead of all the trades? Great work Kyle !
Kyle Glaser: Well, in 2014 they were 6th in the BA organizational talent rankings and that was before they added Trea Turner in that 2014 draft. (Michael Gettys and Nick Torres too). So yes, they have had this much talent in their system before, and recently, but enough has been said and written about what transpired. In terms of what was envisioned, it's really just a function of Preller and Co. reacting to what happened. If Kemp and Shields and Norris and Co. performed consistently and Ross and Cashner didn't have their troubles, etc, they'd all still be in Padres uniforms because the team would have been winning (same could probably be said for Kimbrel, Benoit, Gyorko, etc). But it didn't happen, so they made the deals they felt necessary. A lot of baseball is reacting to the situation on the ground, and clearly this regime made the call to change course and cash in on prospects when the "go-for-it" didn't pan out. And thanks, appreciate the kind words
Justin (Tucson): What is the scouting report on Jorge Ona? And how close was he to the top 10?
Kyle Glaser: Scouting report was legit power potential, troublingly long swing in game situations, so-so athleticism and subpar runner. It's a pure corner profile, likely LF, but the most important thing is the bat. He was in the initial top 10 until we got more and more reports and on the swing and saw it for ourselves, which dropped him. Again though, it may have been rust with timing and mechanics after such a long layoff, which is why we didn't drop him too far. It'll be big to see what his swing looks like when 2017 opens.
Mickey (SD): Is this a top 5 org now?
Kyle Glaser: It's in the conversation. Our org talent rankings will be out shortly and you can see where they land then.
Reggie (Chicago): How soon will we regret trading Tatis Jr.? I have heard he had an outstanding instructional league with the Padres...Is that a big coup for their scouting group outside of having to eat some Shields money?
Kyle Glaser: That already looks like a trade to regret. Tatis is very, very, very good, just has to shore up some things and prove it at higher levels. Never a given, but all signs are pointing to the White Sox being hosed on that one, particularly given how bad Shields has been in Chicago. (Which, by the way, never made sense the Sox would want him given his massive HR problems he was having in SD. Didn't take a genius to figure out they were going to be even worse in US Cellular, I guess Guaranteed Rate now, Field)
Tom (Victor Valley): What can you tell us about Reggie Lawson and Mason Thompson? Where these two of the better steals of the draft?
Kyle Glaser: Thompson more so than Lawson. Solid low-to-mid 90s velo on a FB he can spot, two promising breaking pitches, if not for his Tommy John many felt he was first-round material. Lawson is way, way behind in terms of the rawness of his skillset. He's a pure lottery ticket who will need a lot more time to develop.
Jake (South Carolina): Do do think Margot is ready to make the team out of the opening day ?
Kyle Glaser: Yes. As long as he does what he should do in spring training, he'll win a job.
Bradley (San Diego, CA): Luis Urias is still only 19. I'm assuming he still might physically mature a little more over the next couple years. If his arm strength improves, does he have the range and glove work to play a good shortstop?
Kyle Glaser: He can play SS in small spurts, fill in here and there, but he simply doesn't have the lateral range to play SS for 150 games a year. That won't change much, especially as he fills out and matures a little more. He's really a pure 2B, who can cover you at SS in a pinch.
Chris (Northern Ca): Where would you rank Fernando Tatis Jr on a top 30 list? Can he sit at SS?
Kyle Glaser: He's not top 10 yet, but he's in the next 11-20 group and has potential to be top 10 this time next year. And yes, as discussed in an earlier answer above.
Brandon (Chula Vista): Taking out Morejon, who will rise as the best of the J2 signings?
Kyle Glaser: Luis Almanzar. Can hit, can play SS or 3B, has a lot of the tools needed to succeed, especially as an advanced hitter for his age.
Bradley (San Diego, CA): The Padres seem to have some intriguing athletes in their system. I particularly am thinking of Michael Gettys and Buddy Reed. Do you think either or both will hit enough to be an everyday regular at the big-league level? Gettys adjusted accordingly and performed very well this past season.
Kyle Glaser: There is a sense Gettys can be an everyday regular as a high ISO guy (low AVG, high SLG) with a lot of doubles. Reed there really isn't. He doesn't hit, has never really hit, and few think he will ever hit. Hitting .262 as an upperclassmen and then .254 with no HR in your pro debut is not a good way to change that perception. Burden is on him to change that. He can run and play D, but unless he hits that makes him an org guy
Jordon Wildt (Indiana University): Where is Espinoza his development? How sure are people about him meeting his high expectations? Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: He’s where most of the best 18 year old pro pitching prospects are, if not slightly ahead. Wrapped up low A, made strides on his third pitch, learning the finer points of pitch sequencing and how to attack hitters. He’s just fine, right where he needs to be
Joel Thompson (Temecula, CA): Josh Naylor is 19 year old that played in the futures game.... How is he ranked below Gettys?
Kyle Glaser: He played in the Futures Game because the Marlins needed a representative from their sorry system. He's got talent, but as a power-driven 1B only guy who didn't hit as well as he should have in two hitter-friendly environments (Greensboro and the Cal League). He's not going to rank ahead of a guy who performed better at the same levels (LoA and then HiA) offensively while also showing game-changing ability defensively and on the basepaths. Naylor is still a top 10 prospect in a top 10 system, so it's not like he's a non-prospect. Gettys is just better, both in the eyes of scouts and Padres in-house guys who saw them play side-by-side and on paper.
Bradley (San Diego, CA): Any suggestions for the Padres rookies of where to go for good burritos or tacos? Have you been to Vaqueros in Lemon Grove? A little bit of a sketch area, but so good.
Kyle Glaser: Haven't been there, might have to check it out now though.Thanks for the rec. I'm a North County guy, so Rico's in Encinitas and Filiberto's near Moonlight would be my first two spots I'd suggest.
Ethan (San Diego): Just curious - in Padres 2020 starting rotation projection - there is no mention of Morejon. Any reason why?
Kyle Glaser: He won't be ready by then. 18-year olds about to begin in extended spring/Rookie ball (as the Padres told me he would this year) aren't three years from the majors. He'll need more time.
Tim (Boston): What can you tell us about Guerra? Is he still the SS of the future in SD?
Kyle Glaser: Not right now. He's got to rebuild his entire offensive approach. Swing mechanics, plate discipline, pitch recognition, it’s all in need of a complete overhaul. If he does, then the conversation opens up again.
Robert White (Phoenix, AZ): Seems to me that you are missing a large crop of players that should be ahead of some of these guys? You are missing a lot of young prospects that many think will be top 100 prospects by next year. (Recent Drafts and J2 signees) I know they are young, but these guys are better prospects than half of your top 10... do you have any thoughts on why some of these players got left out?
Kyle Glaser: Because they're pure projection. It's easy to dream on guys who have dominated amateur competition their whole lives and before their warts get exposed in pro ball. The entire point of prospect rankings, etc, is to find the guys who will get to the majors and have an impact on your club. The guy throwing 96 getting Triple-A hitters out (Lamet) is infinitely more likely to have major league impact than the 16-year old toolsy young SS who got a big bonus. As far as Lauer, Ona, and some others who have a little more track record, the scouting reports on them by folks who do this for a living were consistently worse than the reports on Gettys, Nix, etc, who let's not forget were high draft picks themselves. Weighing risk vs. ceiling is a huge part of rankings (JJ Cooper's most recent Ask BA addressed this pretty well actually), and ultimately the likelihood of guys reaching their ceiling is a lot stronger for the guys with a track record of performance than the pure projection guys.
Sean Ballard (Sacramento, CA): Seems to me alot of young, and promising prospects that many scouts/publications are drooling over have been left off your list. Do you not have much information on them?
Kyle Glaser: In a related answer, most of them do find spots in the top 30, so it's not like they were ignored. Again, being a top 15-20 prospect in one of baseball's better systems in nothing to be ashamed about, and is frankly equivalent in some cases to being a No. 4-5 prospect in a weaker system. These are good players with very bright possible futures ahead of them.
David (Bakersfield, CA): The real excitement seems to be at the lower levels of this organization. Where would these 15 young prospects rank in comparison with another organizations top 15? 1. Fernando Tatis Jr 2. Mason Thompson 3. Jorge Ona 4. Reggie Lawson 5. Hudson Potts 6. Luis Almanzar 7. Gabriel Arias 8. Eric Lauer 9. Jeison Rosario 10. Ronald Bolanos 11. Michel Baez 12. Buddy Reed 13. Javier Guerra 14. Rudy Giron 15. Andres Munoz
Kyle Glaser: Goes back to the depth discussion. Frankly, that's a better top 15 than what the Angels, Marlins and Diamondbacks put out there, as well as a few others. Most of those guys are on the Padres top 30, and help make it baseball's deepest system.
David Smith (Austin, TX): No Potts, Thompson or Lawson?
Kyle Glaser: Again, goes back to depth of the system and the number of legit, really good prospects who performed in full-season ball. Potts and Thompson in particular I wouldn't be surprised to see in the top 10 next year if they do the same.
Charles (Escondido): What is the expected ETA for LHP Adrian Morejon and are the reports of him throwing 93-96 accurate?
Kyle Glaser: ETA is 2021 and he’s been mostly 91-94, touching 96. There's room for growth so I wouldn't be surprised if he's consistently 93-96 here shortly.
Michael Harding (Lovett, TX): Keep hearing great things about Tatis Jr. and all of the new J2 shortstops. You have any information on those players? Thanks Kyle!
Kyle Glaser: Tatis is legit, no two ways about it. Almanzar as an offensive player and Arias as a defender have looked very good since joining the organization. There's a lot of good young SS's in this system, they're just all kind of far away. Some will inevitably drop off, but that's the beauty of strength in numbers.
Raul (Ensenada, MX): Happy with all mexican signees. Luis Urias, Andres Munoz and young Tirso Ornelas. Andres Munoz throwing 100mph as a 17 year old in the AZL last year!
Kyle Glaser: Glad you caught this. The Cubs picked up on it a few years ago that teams weren't picking up talent out of Mexico like they used too and really bared down. The Padres have found gems in all three of those guys. You mention Munoz and he's the guy third on the Mexican pecking order in the system, which is really saying something. A nice crop of talent no doubt the Padres have picked up from their neighbors to the south.
John (Chula Vista): Where does this farm system rank? Top 5? Top 3? With another solid draft class, I could see this farm being #1 a year from now. Thoughts?
Kyle Glaser: What would elevate it to No. 1 more than anything would be a lot of the guys already in there just developing as planned and performing. If Urias, Gettys, Naylor rake in Double-A, if Espinoza, Nix, Allen and co dominate the Cal League, if Quantrill, Lauer, Potts, Tatis, Ona come and turn Fort Wayne into a power before advancing quickly, then that would go a long way towards making the Padres a contender for No. 1. They all have the skills to do it, now they just have to do it. Again, this is a performance-based business, and if they perform they'll be rewarded.
Cole (Atlanta): The Padres acquired a lot of young position players this past year. Who stands out the most among this group (Almanzar, Arias, Potts, Rosario, Tatis, others?) and were they close to appearing on the top 10 list?
Kyle Glaser: Potts was closest to top 10 consideration. Tatis is easy to fall in love with, but as our AZL top 20 prospects list noted, it was pretty consensus among scouts that Potts was the better pro prospect because of his bat. At the same time, they're close, and the J2 class has multiple guys in the top 30 as well.
Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): I was kind of surprised to see both Nix and Lamet in the top 10 and no sign of Eric Lauer. Is his ceiling as a mid to back end starter the reason for this or do you folks see big things in the future for Nix and Lamet?
Kyle Glaser: Lauer was initially in my top 10 and Nix and Lamet just on the outside, but the more and more scouts I spoke with and the more and more personnel folks even inside the Padres org came in, it was clear Nix and Lamet had shown more and done more to convince folks they were going to have an impact in the majors than Lauer. Lot of people liked Lauer, it was just as a pure No. 5 starter, not even as a No. 4. Nix kept getting written up as a No. 3 and Lamet as a No. 4. At the end of the day, that swung it pretty convincingly. At the same time, Lauer is still a legit SP prospect, so I wouldn't get to concerned about him being just outside the top 10
Michel (Montreal): Hi, What are your thoughts on Mason Thompson ?
Kyle Glaser: Really bright future as long as he stays healthy. Good low-mid 90s FB, potential for two plus offspeed pitches, just needs to strengthen up and show he can hold up for 100, and eventually 150-200 innings.
Adam (Las Vegas): Has Luis Almanzar already fallen behind Gabriel Arias in terms of prospect status?
Kyle Glaser: Only in the sense that Arias is seen as a more sure bet to stick at SS, which elevates him in the eyes of some. That said, Almanzar is still an excellent prospect, and I wouldn't read too much into 30-40 instructs ABs as 16-year olds in terms of trying to definitively state one has surpassed the other.
Adam (Las Vegas): Should we be concerned that Austin Smith, the first draft pick of AJ Preller's regime, has already found himself destined to be a reliever?
Kyle Glaser: No. GMs and scouting departments miss on draft picks. It happens. Sometimes in year one, sometimes in year four, it's only a concern if it keeps happening over and over and over again. And for whatever disappointment Smith's development has been, Jacob Nix - their next pick - has made up for it.
Adam (Las Vegas): Does Joey Lucchessi have a chance to start?
Kyle Glaser: Yes. Three potential above average pitches and elite command from the left side. Yeah, that’s a starter all the way
Adam (Las Vegas): Is Eric Lauer a 3 or a 5 down the road?
Kyle Glaser: Pure 5 based on what he showed in his pro debut. That said, he was coming off a long college season so maybe the stuff ticks up with a full offseason of rest and a pro workout regimen. We'll see how it all looks this year.
Philip (San Diego): Couple questions: Did Logan Allen get top 10 consideration? Could Mason Thompson shoot up the list (assuming he's in top 30) showing his potential and staying healthy this year? Would Paddack have made the list if not for TJ? Hear any reports on Jeisson Rosario (sp?), seems like he was a pleasant surprise in instructs.
Kyle Glaser: Allen did not, simply again because of the depth of the system and the fact he missed so much time with elbow soreness. Thompson very likely could shoot up, yes, and Paddack is top 10 if not for TJ. Reports on Rosario were they liked the speed and defense and feel to hit, but he's physically very weak right now and going to have to make major gains in that department.
jon camaney (san diego): As a lifelong Padres fan who has watched them squander most of their draft picks, especially first round, I cannot help but to be skeptical about Quantrill being so high on their list. His pro career has not been even good from what I see. Why would he be so highly rated? Wouldn't Eric Lauer be a better pick at this time?
Kyle Glaser: Skepticism is generally smart when it comes to post Tommy John picks. Quantrill was brilliant in the Northwest League (1.93 ERA, 28 K/2 BB) after getting his feet wet in the AZL, and I wouldn’t read too much into 4.2 innings at Ft Wayne, no matter how good or bad they are. The stuff is there, the poise is there, the moxie is there, just needs to firm up his command (always the last thing to come back from TJ) and if he does that he’ll be fine. And no, Lauer doesn’t have anywhere near the stuff Quantrill does
Roy (Citrus Heights, CA): Do you ever see Michael Gettys translating his athletic tools into a legitimate MLB talent?
Kyle Glaser: Yes. He showed he has the ability to make adjustments and changes this year and flashed game-changing ability at the plate, in the outfield, and on the basepaths, handling a promotion to a tougher league especially well. He needs to continue progressing in the box first and foremost, but he's turning his tools into skills and you're starting to see what he can do, which is be a multi-faceted threat.
Allen (IL): How far off the list was Asuaje? Can he carve out a career as a bat first utility type?
Kyle Glaser: He's in the 11-20 group, and yes that is exactly what he will be.
Bjorn (Seattle, WA): Where would International signee Luis Almanzar rank on this list and what kind of player do you think he could become?
Kyle Glaser: He's in the 11-20 range, and the potential is a bat-first third baseman that hits for power and average. Some think he can stay at SS, but most I've spoken with think he moves to third. Still, it'll be his bat that carries him.
Sergio (Chula Vista, CA): Do you see Padres giving Jose Castillo giving him another shot as a starter or is he best used in the 7th or 8th inning reliever role?
Kyle Glaser: He's not going to outdo or be better than most of the SP prospects they have, so his best (only) shot is as a reliever.
Glint (San Diego): Is Fernando Tatis Jr the highest ceiling non pitcher we have in this system? If so what exactly do you see as his ceiling, if it's not him who is it and same 2nd question?
Kyle Glaser: No. Margot has a higher ceiling because of his feel for the strike zone and unquestioned defensive excellence in CF. Tatis' ceiling is equal to that of Renfroe, Urias and others - a first-division, really good everyday player.
Alex (San Diego): Trade 1, keep 2: Jankowski, Dickerson, Margot
Kyle Glaser: You trade Margot if you get an advanced stud SS prospect in return, like Amed Rosario, Willy Adames, or Ozzie Albies. I don't see the Mets, Rays or Braves making that trade though, so you keep all three, add Renfroe in RF, and you've got a nice balance of L/R, power and speed in your OF that gives you a lot of options. You can win moving forward with that outfield.
Lila (San Diego): 5 years from now how many "aces" are in our rotation? Am I wrong that we have a lot of arms that could be decent but no elite arm? (besides Espinoza)
Kyle Glaser: Quantrill and Morejon could be elite arms, but there is a lot of risk with both given Quantrill's injury history and Morejon's youth. There is frontline potential with those two if they stay healthy and develop without too many hiccups.
Evin (Boston): Carlos Asuaje noticeably absent from the top 10. Where does he rank within the system? Is he just a utility infielder?
Kyle Glaser: He’s in the 11-20 range. And yes. One scout comped him to Tommy La Stella as a valuable, bat first utility man. La Stella hit .270 with a .357 OBP in part-time duty last year for a championship team, which isn't sexy but is definitely something to be glad to have, especially in the National League. Asuaje will be a solid big leaguer who ends up having a career longer than a lot of the high upside but pure projection guys in the system, and does rank fairly well in a deep system.
Zach (Wisc.): What are your thoughts about Lake Bachar?
Kyle Glaser: Really interesting guy with a great backstory. Live arm and a reliever ultimately I think, but a good one who could move fast.
Loren (La Jolla, CA): Do you see Quantrill and Lauer in the majors next year considering how absolutely atrocious the Padres upper level minors are for SP? If the new core of Hedges-Renfroe-Margot-Myers-Jankowski are good enough to win, will the Padres almost be forced to bring people up?
Kyle Glaser: No. The Padres won't be winning, or close to winning, at all in 2017, so there's no reason to rush them. Even if by some miracle they do win more than expected, they aren't going to rush those guys just for the sake of a surprise season. You'll see Lamet, Walker Lockett, Michael Kelly and others well before you see those two as SP reinforcements.
Andy (Here): So I've read reports that Quantrill might've gone 1-1 in draft if had chance to do it over, does this speak to the strong talent of the 3 above him on the ranking, or rather the lack of a true 1-1 talent in the 16 draft? Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: Based on my discussions with the draft guys here, it’s pure hyperbole that Quantrill would have gone 1-1 in any scenario. Senzel, Puk, Pint all would have gone ahead of him in any scenario. And keep in mind, even if he was 1-1, that makes him the top pick of his year, not the top player in an entire system with guys who were high picks themselves in their years. Keep in mind, this years No. 1, 3, 4, 5 and 6 picks were all not No. 1 in their systems. He is a strong talent, as are the three guys ahead of him, and that’s independent of any draft class depth situation
Seanto (St. Paul, MN): I was pretty pumped about Logan Allen, but his K rate dropped in A ball. What do the Padres think about him long term? Any chance he makes it as a starter?
Kyle Glaser: He’s a starter all the way. Just has to stay healthy, which he didn’t with persistent elbow soreness this year. If that clears up, no reason he can’t fill the No. 4 or 5 starter role.
Sam (Chicago): Hi, thanks for doing the chat. At what point do you see Espinoza becoming a regular part of the San Diego rotation ? Is he likely to be one of the team leaders when the international players they signed this past year have a chance of paying returns in the majors ?
Kyle Glaser: Hey there, my pleasure. I see Espinoza getting the call midway thru 2018 and becoming a rotation regular in 2019. He has the personality and makeup to be a team leader for all players, regardless of nationality, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him take on that role
Max D. (San Diego): From a fellow RSF little league alum... would you be surprised if Chris Paddack was in the Padres top 10 next year? Even though he's injured I'm shocked he didn't make it this year (over Nix maybe?)
Kyle Glaser: Haha hey there Max, long time no talk. And Paddack probably won’t be in the top 10 next year simply because he is scheduled to miss all of 2017 (he had his surgery only in August) so that’ll keep his stock fairly even while other guys will raise theirs. If he was healthy, he would have ranked No. 7 over Nix, but alas, it didn’t happen. When he comes back in 2018, that’s when we’ll see what he’s got. If it all returns, he’ll be a slam dunk top 10 guy then.
Matt (Denver): BA's projected lineup for the Padres in 2020 includes Michael Gettys. His numbers certainly showed improvement this past year. Does he truly profile as a legit everyday regular at this point? Given his athletic ability but sometimes, shall we say, inconsistent approach at the plate, is he looking like more of a 4th outfielder?
Kyle Glaser: The strides he took to turn his athletic ability into actual baseball skills this year showed he can get to the point of being an everyday regular. Someone who hits 7th in a lineup, plays great D with a high ISO and a fair bit of doubles and steals, something like that. That’s said, he’s still very risky and the optimism is based solely on what he showed this year. He could just as easily slide back into his bad habits and flame out in AA. At the same time, he showed definitively it’s in there for him to become a big league regular this past year, and we’ll see how much he can further tap into it.
John (Cincinnati): Thanks for the chat. How close was Eric Lauer to making the top 10? How does he project long term?
Kyle Glaser: He was in the discussion for the No. 10 spot, but again it was something where the scouting reports we consistently got weren’t quite enough to put him in there. With some graduations to come in Renfroe, Margot and possibly Lamet, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him Top 10 next year
Adam (Las Vegas): Is Franchy Cordero more valuable to the Padres on the field or in a trade?
Kyle Glaser: The field given his ability to play CF and LF, steal bases, hit for some pop and make enough contact to get use out of it. He’s still only 22 as well. If Travis Jankowski (who has a higher trade value) eventually gets moved, I feel better making that move knowing Cordero can come up and fill a similar role, with a little less speed and a little more power
Rich (Boise, ID): What is the outlook for Walker Lockett? Will we see him in 2017? Starter or Pen?
Kyle Glaser: You’ll definitely see him in 2017. He’ll start some, maybe 10 games, and make a few long bullpen appearances as well. Think something similar in terms of role to former Padres prospect Matt Andriese maybe, who made 25 apps, 8 starts his first year in Tampa Bay
Brett L. (Minneapolis): How high would've Mason Thompson & Reggie Lawson been drafted if not for injury & signability concerns? Am I right in thinking both can be Top 100 Prospects by 2019? Both fill every box outside of health. When closely looking at both, they appear to have everything fellow high school arms like Ian Anderson, Manning, & Whitley have, especially Thompson. Am I right to lump them into that top group?
Kyle Glaser: Thompson you could lump into the lower end of that group, but not Lawson. I’ve addressed in earlier topics just how raw Lawson is and how much time he’ll need. If Thompson hadn’t been hurt, he probably still wouldn’t be top 10 right now but he’d be closer than he was. Thompson checks a lot of the boxes, Lawson does not. Both have similar upside, but Thompson requires a little less projection/dreaming.
Brett L. (Minneapolis): What's the word on the street (aka scouting community) when it comes to Gabriel Arias? And how much stock should be put into an international players' signing bonus when it comes to projection? What is the reason signing bonuses are so erratic & all over the place? Every year there's a ton of guys who get far bigger bonuses than guys who are universally viewed as better. This past year Gabriel Arias signed for nearly $2M less than Antuna & roughly $1.5M less than Abe Guitierrez. Is there a method to the madness or is it as random as it appears?
Kyle Glaser: Word on the street is Arias is a superb defensive shortstop, even better than he was supposed to be when he signed, and a young leader as well who took charge of the J2 group once they got onto the field together at the Padres Dominican Complex. Offensively, it’s a long, long way away. And bonuses are so erratic in part because of trainers and how they operate, as well as, teams trying to work their various bonus allotments in a certain way. It’s random in the sense there’s no pattern that stays the same every year, but the method has to do a lot with the different trainers and what they expect and what teams in contention are working with
Matt (Denver): Who should Padres' fans be most excited about with respect to the plethora of international signings? Morejon seems to get the most acclaim (and got the most money), but what about Almanzar or Ona?
Kyle Glaser: Morejon is pretty universally loved as the guy to watch, beyond any of the other guys. Ona and Almanzar both have their proponents but some concerns as well, Morejon just is at another level in the eyes of pretty much everyone in the business. If you want to focus on one, he’s your guy above and beyond anyone else
Kj Baker (Nashville,Tn): What does it feel like to be one of top 10 prospects in America
Kyle Glaser: I wouldn’t know. I’d imagine pretty sweet
Brian (Arizona): Hi Kyle, love the chats Gettys improved his average nicely in 2016, but still strikes out too much. if he doesn't make more contact, can he be a regular OF ? thanks
Kyle Glaser: No, and that’s where you hope the development continues to move forward. He showed for the first time this past year he can produce enough to be an impact regular rather than just flash occasional tools, but that growth has to continue. Making more contact more consistently is the biggest part of the next step of his growth process
Dustin (Winnipeg, CA): Is BA high on Nix and Lamet or low on Lauer? I thought we would see his name in the top 10 beofre either of those guys.Is the reasoning, Nix and Lamet hiave the higher ceilimng and Lauer the higher floor?
Kyle Glaser: We sort of discussed this earlier, but to rehash – Nix has the highest ceiling of the three actually. Stuff is better across the board with three pitches and command. Lamet’s two primary pitches are better than Lauer’s two primaries and is further along in his development. Lauer’s floor isn’t as high as many say it is, throwing 89-92 with one good breaking pitch and two other offerings that need work. He has the potential to do make those jumps and I think he ultimately will, but again, it’s not like he’s a guaranteed big leaguer while the other two are super high risk. His risk is every bit as high as Nix’s and higher than Lamet’s. We’ll see how the stuff develops moving forward
Rob O (San Diego): You're presented 2 options: 1) Yoan Moncada as an amateur (no knowledge of prospect success) 2) Morejon, Ona, Almanzar, Rosario, Arias, Lopez, Barley, Orneleas et al. Which do you take for a similar overall expenditure? Thanks!!!
Kyle Glaser: Moncada. Power, speed, average, patience, (premature MLB debut aside). It’s all there
Rob (SEA): If Quantril pitched as many innings in 2016 at Stanford and looked as he did after pro ball, does he last to 7?
Kyle Glaser: He’s probably a top 5 pick if that happens.
Steve (Illinois): Hi Kyle, thanks for the nice chats did any of the top 2016 draftees (besides Quantrill) come close to the top 10 ? maybe Thompson, Lauer, Lawson or Reed ? many thanks
Kyle Glaser: Hey Steve, my pleasure. Lauer was the closest, with Potts next. Those were really the only two in discussion for top 10 in such a deep system. The others all had significant enough warts to pretty much eliminate them from the discussion immediately.
Robby O (MLT): Did you like the Lawson/Thompson picks?
Kyle Glaser: Yeah, no complaints. Whatever concerns about Lawson, you can see the appeal of taking a third-round flyer on him. If they were your Nos 1. and 2 picks of an entire draft, it’d be different., but after taking two really good college arms (Quantrill and Lauer), a nice infield prospect (Potts) and a college OF with some upside (Reed) no reason not to take a chance on two guys like Lawson and Thompson
Tony (Malibu): As Margot matures, do you and other experts think he'll develop 15 home run a year power?
Kyle Glaser: I don’t know if I’d call myself an expert, but most of the folks out there seem to think its more 8-10 HR power, but with 35-40 doubles and 10-15 triples, so he’ll still have enough thump in the bat, even if its not purely in home run terms
Robert (Seattle): Hey Kyle! What's your take on Michael Gettys' ultimate role? Could he slash 250/320/450 as a 90th percentile outcome?
Kyle Glaser: Hey Robert. I think it’s probably more of a .430 SLG, but again, that’s a decent player, especially if he steals some bags for you want plays elite defense. We’ll see how he continues to develop
mike (floripa): How do you see the Padres' outfield situation shaking out? Dickerson, Jankowski, Margot, Renfro, who gets the most time a which positions? Thanks.
Kyle Glaser: Ultimately it will be Renfroe in RF every day and Margot in CF most days. Dickerson is your LF for now, while Jankowski spells Renfroe and Margot and is your first guy off the bench pinch-hitting and running. Even in an oft-used reserve role, you’ll still see Jankowski starting a couple of times a week and getting about 350 PAs, a nice chunk of playing time
Bob Divine (San Diego): How would Perdomo, 23. and Jenkins, 24, compare as prospects if they had not already exceeded the rookie minimums?
Kyle Glaser: Neither would be in the top 20 of this system. Possibly in the 20-30 range
Kenney (Idaho): Any hpe for Espinoza and Quantrill joining rotation in 2018, or are we slogging through 2 more terrible years before we can dream of competing for a wildcard?
Kyle Glaser: You’re slogging through four more years of hoping for a wild card. Even if Espinoza and Quantrill make it by 2018 (which is absolute best case scenario) there still will be no SS, three SP spots needing to be filled and very likely a hole somewhere else due to someone failing to perform. This team is in bad shape, make no mistake about it, and it’s going to require a lot of guys reaching their ceilings (never a guarantee) to snap out of it
Ben (Olney, MD): Please tell me all you can about Morejon and Ona! I see they aren't in the Best Tools and 2020 Lineup. Is this because they're too far out? Or did the Friars waste $19MM?
Kyle Glaser: They’re just too far out and there’s a lot of other really good prospects ahead of them for now. Padres didn’t waste 19 mil, don’t sweat it, they just are going to need time to develop
Raymond (New Jersey): Hi Kyle, the chats are really fun I noticed a big difference in your rating of Naylor(#10) and that of mlb (#4). their only big complaint is he's limited to 1B and is not good defensively. just curious, do you see other issues ? thanks
Kyle Glaser: Hey Raymond, thanks, glad you enjoy them. MLB hasn’t updated their team rankings yet to reflect the second half of the season, so when they do their offseason team top 30 re-rank we can reassess
Adam (Las Vegas): Has AJ Preller built a stronger farm system now than the one he tore down his first offseason?
Kyle Glaser: You can find out when our Prospect Handbook is released later this month. There it will have organzation talent rankings for this year and past years, so you can compare there
Steve (Springfield): What are your thoughts on Logan Allen?
Kyle Glaser: Good pitcher who fits that No. 4 profile pretty well with a good FB and breaking pitches. Just needs to stay healthy, which is not a given
Brett Harmon (United States): When do you expect Urias to be ready to take over at Shortstop. He seems like the most consistent prospect at that position progressing through the minor leagues right now. His bat and ability to get on base should make him the best shortstop in the system.
Kyle Glaser: He’s not a shortstop. He’s a second baseman. He’ll take over there 2018 possibly, 2019 definitely
Michael Stern (Rochester NY): What can you tell me about Phil Maton? The reliever has put up some crazy minor league numbers the last 2 years for the Pads. Are we looking at a future closer down the road? Thanks for the chat!
Kyle Glaser: Heavy 93-96 mph fastball, curveball with the highest spin rate in the organization, cutter that saws bats off…he’s the real deal. He probably could close but fits a tad better into the setup role, but we’ll see
Terry (90210): What would you say Margots Ceiling & Floor is? Felt like he had more hype with the Red Sox vs Pads..why so?
Kyle Glaser: Wouldn’t agree with that. His highest BA Top 100 prospect ranking came with him as a Padre pre-2016, and its about to be even higher now. His ceiling is an All-Star center fielder playing Gold Glove defense and hitting .300 with a ton of XBHs and steals. His floor is an everyday CF hitting a light .270 playing really good defense and stealing 20-30 bases. He’s a regular CF either way, and one of the best CF prospects in baseball
Travis (Florida): Did the padres whiff on the Jason groome pick? Is Cal Quantrill in the same class as groome? How does Adrian morejon compare to Jason groome?
Kyle Glaser: Not really. Both have risks (Quantrill injury, Groome character) and Quantrill’s ceiling is every bit as high as Groome’s. Pads did fine there. And if Morejon and Groome were in the same draft, Morejon would get picked first
Lukas (Sweden): Where do you see the Friars system ranking in the next two to three years? We seem really loaded at the lower levels.
Kyle Glaser: It wouldn’t surprise me if its the No. 1 system in the game two years from now. I could also see it dropping to No. 20. That’s how volatile it is with so much of their talent the raw, pure projection variety. Inevitably a lot of those guys will fail, it’s just a matter of its a quarter of them, half of them, or 75 percent of them. It’s a deep system with a lot of upside, but very volatile
John (NJ): Thanks as always for the chat. Is Franchy Cordero still relevant? Based on sabermetrics (ISO, wRC+, BABIP, SecA, wOBA) and the eye test, he had an explosive season offensively, compared to his 2014 and 2015 seasons. How close was he (if at all) to the top 10?
Kyle Glaser: You’re welcome. And yes, Franchy Cordero is very much still relevant and has a place in the top 30. He was not considered top 10, but he absolutely is one of the better players in the system as he begins to put it all together
JP (New Jersey): Will Buddy Reed be a 4th/5th OF or do you think he will hit enough to play everyday?
Kyle Glaser: Few scouts think he’ll hit enough to even get past AA, so 4th/5th OF is the ceiling on him. He needs to show he can hit before that changes
Lukas (Old Orchard Beach, ME): Is Eric Lauer an underrated prospect? I get the lack of elite velocity- but with his poise & his ability to repeat his delivery and throw strikes, is their a #2 starter upside with that high floor?
Kyle Glaser: I wouldn’t say he’s underrated. He was still in top 10 consideration in one of the best systems in baseball and finished just outside of it. But No. 2 starter? No. Not at all. Think No. 4, maybe 3 absolute upside, Drew Smyly esque. A good, solid lefthander who gets the job done. Very valuable and something a lot of teams covet, but if he’s your No. 2 starter your team has a problem.
Don (San Diego): What do you think of Tre Carter? He seems like one of the best overall athletes in the Padres' system.
Kyle Glaser: He’s a guy to keep an eye on. Toolsy HS OFs from Georgia/Tennessee who rely purely on their athleticism don’t have a great track record, but Carter has some skills that open your eyes and make you want to keep watching.
a.j. (las vegas): So excited about this farm system. While a team like the Braves may (possibly) have more pitching depth is there any farm system that has 3 guys with the ceilings of Espinoza, Quantrill and Morejon?
Kyle Glaser: Yes. The Braves (Allard, Soroka, Anderson, Newcomb) and Astros (Martes, Paulino, Perez, Whitley) both have as many guys (in this case, more) with the upside of the Padres three top SP prospects, while the Brewers, Dodgers, Yankees and Pirates all have at least two guys with similar ceilings. Which goes back to yes, the Padres system is very, very good and very deep, but it’s not on a planet all its own
Greyson (San Diego): Do you see Walker Lockett or Dinelson Lamet making it into the rotation in 2017?
Kyle Glaser: Yup. Both, as a matter of fact
Andy (Fort Washington, PA): Also could you please explain ranking Nix ahead of Gettys? I agree that Nix has shown glimpses of top of the roto stuff, but Gettys was one of my favorite prospects this year, with 40 XBH and 33 SBs underlying his tantalizing power-speed combo to go with potential 70 grade defense in center. Right now he's looking like the Bubba Starling that could.
Kyle Glaser: It’s more a testament to Nix than a knock on Gettys. Fastball had the highest average velo in the system and he kept it over the course of the season, his curveball was rated the best breaking pitch in the Midwest League by opposing managers and his changeup became an above-average pitch, all with sterling control. Gettys has all you mentioned, but also very questionable hitting ability moving forward. Nix has no such knock on him. When you get the prospect handbook though, you’ll see the grades are even and given Gettys’ performance in Elsinore, the distance between the two is not substantial
A.J. (Las Vegas): If both were to move forward at a reasonable rate who would be the better defender in CF, Margot or Gettys?
Kyle Glaser: It’s a debate a lot of folks in the Padres offices are having, but in the end Margot gets the edge for now. Both are Gold Glove caliber defenders though, a good problem for the Padres to have
James (San diego): How many potential all stars are in the farm system
Kyle Glaser: If everything goes according to plan, you’re probably looking at 5-6 frequent All-Stars and 5-6 others who will get a nod or two. It’s a pretty good amount to have, 10-12 potential All-Stars in your system, and a testament to the depth the Padres have built
Nosh (Earth): On what planet are these 9 jokers better prospects than Naylor? Because I've already ruled out Earth. Thanks
Kyle Glaser: Funny you say that because, a lot of scouts and colleagues actually feel strongly there’s an additional 5-6 guys better than Naylor as well. I gave him a lot of credit and cut him some slack given he was one year out of HS, traded midseason across the country and promoted at the same time. It’s a lot to ask of a guy who was 18 most of the season, so I wasn’t willing to drop him further than I did. But I was in the minority, a lot of people felt he should’ve been dropped way further. We’ll see
John (San Diego, CA): Has Jose Rondon become a nonprospect? Does he have a shot at taking the shortstop job?
Kyle Glaser: No, he’s still a prospect, it’s just as more of a utility-guy, maybe starting SS for a year or two type. He’s been in the big leagues and he’ll be back there, but he’s not a guy who you pencil in as your SS of the future. He’ll be in the top 30 though, he’s just not an elite guy
John (San Diego, CA): Josh Naylor was a top 100 prospect at the time of his trade to the padres, but I haven't seen much praise on him since. Will he make BA's top 100 and what's your outlook on him this season?
Kyle Glaser: He will not be in the top 100. My outlook on him is he’ll go back to Lake Elsinore, get comfortable, and show some of the big power we’ve all seen before a move up to AA. There, we’ll see how he handles the better pitching in what is considered the largest jump in the minors (HiA to AA). He’s not a top 100 guy anymore, but he’s still a top 10 prospect in a very deep system, which counts for a lot
Sin Vegetales (Orlando): Excluding Morejon and Ona can you pref out the J2 class from '16? Almanzar, Arias, Barley, Guzman, Lopez, Miliano, Ornelas, Quintero, J Rosario,
Kyle Glaser: Almanzar, Arias, Rosario, Ornelas, Miliano, Quintero are the top 6 in order, with Barley, Lopez and Guzman a clear tier below right now. Again though, we’re talking about 16 year olds. A lot can and will change
Adam (Las Vegas): Would you prefer Anderson Espinoza or Michael Kopech?
Kyle Glaser: Espinoza. Better array of offerings, less character risk, no question he starts. At the same time, Kopech is still a stud in his own right and I expect him to have a very successful career
John (San Diego): How does the top end of the Padres' system this year compare to the last five years?
Kyle Glaser: Well, the 2015 top end is pretty excellent. Top 7 are Matt Wisler, Trea Turner, Hunter Renfroe, Joe Ross, Austin Hedges, Max Fried, Cory Spangenberg – that’s 5 big leaguers and two others who are still top prospects. Prospects, by their very nature, have such a high attrition rate that’s pretty rare to see. Will the top 7 this year end up better than that? It’s arguable, but it’s not clear cut in any way
Rob (MLT): I don't see the logic in drafting Lauer outside of money. At first it seemed like maybe a 3/4, but do you think it was a mistake in the 1st?
Kyle Glaser: No. Polished lefties with four pitches, good command and track record of success are wise investments, especially at the 25th overall pick where the slam dunks are long gone. He’s a good pitcher and should be a major leaguer, which most times is all you can ask for at the back end of the first round
Dan (Augusta, ME): Michel Miliano is getting some buzz from instructs. Did he sneak on to the 30 or is the system just too deep? Thanks.
Kyle Glaser: System is just too deep, but keep an eye on him for sure
Rob (Seattle): Does Tatis have the potential to pull a Leodys Teveras type skyrocket up rankings?
Kyle Glaser: Yes. Needs to show he’s done some things as we move into this next season, but if he does, then yes
Robert (San Diego): Does Quantrill, if everything clicks, project as a #1/#2? Not a true ace but an occasional All-Star?
Kyle Glaser: If everything clicks he’s a really good No. 2. A Matt Cain to Anderson Espinoza’s Tim Lincecum in their primes. (Purely talking role here, not pitcher comps)
Luis Urias (Knocking on AA's Door): Think I can become an average D, 300/340/400 hitter?
Kyle Glaser: Try above-average D, .320/.380/.420 hitter. You can be an All-Star and batting title contender, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise
Padres Fan in 2021 (2021): I'm currently watching Michael Gettys, Buddy Reed and Hunter Renfroe roam Petco, all hitting their 99th percentile outcomes. Drooling yet?
Kyle Glaser: Well, not many balls in the OF would drop, but I’d be concerned with how many strikeouts are being racked up at the plate.
Doug (Sacramento): Will Renfroe hit and reach base enough to become an above average potential all-star? Or is he destined to be another big power guy with high K's and low OBP?
Kyle Glaser: That’s the million dollar question. After last year a lot more people are in the former camp, but there’s still a lot of people in the latter. I’m in the optimist camp and think you can end up the guy in the positive outcome, but a Jeff Francouer 2.0 scenario (some good years but largely bouncing around from team to team due to K issues) isn’t something we’re completely out of the woods from.
Doug (Sacramento): What position player has the best shot to be a perennial all-star? (If any)
Kyle Glaser: Manny Margot. Hit, run, defense, it’s all there
John (San Diego): Can you think of a more interesting rotation mix in the minors than we should see in Lake Elsinore this year? Should I take a drive up the 15?
Kyle Glaser: The Dodgers potential rotation mix in Rancho Cucamonga (Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Jordan Sheffield, Mitchell White) is equally interesting, and the Braves at their new HiA affiliate (Soroka, Toussaint, Fried, Allard) should be as well. But yes, Storm games are always fun and there is definitely talent to see. Definitely make that drive
Loren (La Jolla, CA): ETA for Lauer and Quantrill to be pitching in a Padre uniform? Gotta imagine Padres want that to happen ASAP considering their high minors pitching depth (yikes)
Kyle Glaser: 2018 first callups, 2019 in the rotation.
Nick (San Diego): What kind of future does Brad Wieck have with the Pads? Whats the ceiling?
Kyle Glaser: Really good LHP who can get righties out too. He’ll pitch some important 7ths and 8ths facing both sides, and get the job done
Jason (Ocean beach): Where do you see Luis Urias finishing the year? AAA? MLB? Also, most reports seem to be really low on his power potential but it seemed like he made strides in that regard last year. (2b not HR) Are those grades changing at all?
Kyle Glaser: I see him finishing the year in AAA. His power potential jumped in the second half of last year when he slugged .505. And it was there for all to see when he front footed a ball and it went 390 feet over the CFs head for a double in the Padres futures game against Texas. His power potential grade has absolutely increased, although its still not more than fringe-average. Still, with his average and on base skills, 8-10 home runs will be just fine
Rob (MLT): Is Nola a decent recent comp for a good outcome if everything clicks fast for Quantrill?
Kyle Glaser: Quantrill higher. He throws harder and his changeup is better at the same point coming out of college. He’s a half grade better on both pitches. Again though, Nola is a very fine pitcher the Padres would be happy to have, so it wouldn’t be a huge disappointment if that’s where Quantrill ends up. It’s just he’s got a little more at the same point where you can see him ending up being better.
Bill (San Antonio): What are your ceilings for Naylor and Lucchesi?
Kyle Glaser: Naylor a solid everyday first baseman, Lucchesi a No. 4 or 5 starter. Both have impediments to that, and this year should bring into focus where they ultimately will rise to be
Mark (Chula Vista): Do you think Austin Allen's future will be as a catcher?
Kyle Glaser: He has a chance. He improved drastically from where he was last year to this year, but that just means he went from true bottom of the scale to being in the bottom 10 percent but not the worst. If he can make another jump, to even fringe-average, that will work with his bat.
Matthew (Salem, Ma): What can you tell me about Andres Munoz, other than he throws hard. I can't even find any H/W info on him.
Kyle Glaser: He’s 6-2, 165 and turned 18 yesterday. He throws hard, but doesn’t yet know where it is going. Stay tuned, but he’s a long term developmental project
Jason (Ocean beach): What is the scouting report on Chris Baker? He seemed to put up good numbers last year after being drafted.
Kyle Glaser: Really nice defender who actually got some consideration for best defensive SS in the system. General sense was his future is as a utility INF who can adequately play 2B, SS, and 3B. Josh Wilson is a guy you maybe think of. Not the most thump and you don’t want him starting for you, but carved out a nice 8 big league year career as a defense first utility man
Robert (Seattle): Early in his career M gettys was said to potentially have plus raw power. Was that simply untrue, has he just not tapped into it or does his approach not make it come out?
Kyle Glaser: It’s not plus, but there’s above-average in there that shows up from time to time. But his approach and overall hitting ability does not allow it to come out. There’s going to be a lot of doubles, but I wouldn’t expect an inordinate amount of home runs
Rob (SEA): Not a question, but thanks for sticking around for 3 hours!
Kyle Glaser: My pleasure. I enjoy chatting. Always fun to talk baseball. Love that it’s my job to
Justin (San diego): Whats the story on Michael Kelly? He seemed solid in AA last year but put up El Paso numbers in El Paso and went unprotected in the Rule V draft.
Kyle Glaser: Kelly showed some increased velocity this year, but the control isn’t great and never really has been. He’s a decently hard throwing minor leaguer who can maybe come up and give you some innings on an up and down basis, that’s not someone you go out of your way to protect in Rule 5.
Jason (Ocean beach): Looking at your reply about urias. What war does that profile look like? 4? 6? Higher???
Kyle Glaser: in the 4s. Touching 5s and maybe a 6 at peak.
Robert (MLT): Thanks for the details on the Lauer pick. You've convinced me.
Kyle Glaser: No problem. Glad I could help clarify
Ken (Sandusky, OH): I'm dizzy and I want to go home now. Time to end this chat, Kyle?
Kyle Glaser: Almost. Got to beat a BA record here and set a new one. Almost there
Lance (San Diego, CA): Have a prospect or two that you like in SD's system that no one is really talking about yet? Any deep sleepers?
Kyle Glaser: Middle relievers don’t get a ton of love, but multiple scouts brought Trey Wingenter up to me unprompted. Really liked his stuff, how he uses his size and body, his moxie in big moments. That’s a guy who could quietly rise and end up pitching some important relief innings for the Padres down the road
Luis Urias (Knocking on AA's Door): I appreciate that! So if I do what needs to be done in the high minors, will prospect rankings reflect that ceiling? (sadly i'm not the real Luis, but i spect you knew that).
Kyle Glaser: Yes, I knew that haha. And I think they will, but there will always be some people skeptical. It’s the nature of trying to predict the future, which is really what prospect evaluation and ranking is, and that’s completely fair.
Robert (Seattle): Been waiting a long time for a consensus upper-tier hitting prospect. Do you think one of the kids will emerge as a Profar/Mazara/Sano/Robles/Rosario type prospect (purely in value and consensus) as a teenager?
Kyle Glaser: That’s incredibly hard to predict. I think if it does happen it will be Almanzar, but it’s 80-20 against even that
Jerry (La Mesa): Does AJ Kennedy have any chance of becoming a major league player, given his strong defensive skills?
Kyle Glaser: There’s a lot of guys who have gotten a taste of the big leagues based on that (come on down Padre great Luke Carlin!) so it’s not impossible. Don’t think there’s a long big league career there, but he can make it at some point
Matt (NY): Where would Austin Hedges have ranked on this list if still eligible?
Kyle Glaser: Was waiting for this one. He would have ranked fifth, right behind Quantrill and right ahead of Morejon. Very strong suspicion the offense was El Paso driven, but there is a feeling he can hit .260 with 10-15 HR and play ridiculous D, which is enough as a catcher
Matt (Denver): Where does Ruddy Giron fit in the future Padres' picture?
Kyle Glaser: He fits as a guy who sees some time playing 2B and SS before moving on and hanging around with some other teams around baseball.
Robert (Seattle): Side note: one of the best chats in recent memory. Does the draft portend enough talent for the Padres to get a true blue chipper?
Kyle Glaser: Thanks. Appreciate the kind words. And yes, having the No. 3 pick in what is considered a very, very good draft gives them a great opportunity to grab a blue-chipper
Kyle Glaser: Alright folks, think that will about do it. Think I got to mostly every topic asked about in the chat (there were a lot of repeat-type questions) so hopefully you all got the answers you were looking for. Thanks for chatting and I hope you all have a great rest of your week