Which MLB Prospect Will Be No. 1 In Every System In 2025? 


Image credit: Jett Williams (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

As soon as we roll out our rankings, the question begins: So who will be here a year from now?

We understand it. If the underlying ethos of Baseball America is to make sure that our readers are smarter than the average fan by knowing who are going to be the next stars, the attempts to predict the future never stop.

So we’re going to try to predict who will rank No. 1 in every system a year from now.

A word of warning for this exercise. These are estimates. They’re well-informed estimates, but obviously predicting the future is never easy.

Also, there may be fewer wild cards than you expect in these rankings. We all love the underdog story. A player gets ignored over and over, but through the sheer will of his determination and a splash of talent, he develops into a star, proving everyone wrong along the way. It’s a perfect script for a movie or a Netflix eight-episode series. But if you’re predicting next year’s No. 1 prospects, you are better off avoiding any sentimentality. Stars top the list, and rarely do they come out of nowhere.

If you look at the No. 1 prospects on our 2024 lists, they are almost entirely players who were within shouting range of the No. 1 rank the year before. There are seven 2023 first-round picks on the list. There are six repeat No. 1 prospects.

Every other new No. 118 players in totalranked within their respective organization’s Top 10 Prospects the previous year. Guardians outfielder Chase DeLauter (No. 9 on the team’s 2023 list) is the lowest-ranked prospect to climb to No. 1. There were six No. 2 prospects who jumped to No. 1 and four who ranked No. 3. So excluding new draftees, 16 of the 23 No. 1 prospects who could rank on the previous year’s list ranked among their system’s top three.

Below, we’ll assess multiple scenarios for No. 1 prospects in each system and the likelihood it happens. Here are some other helpful tools that might come in handy as you assess each team’s future.

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Arizona Diamondbacks

Current No. 1: Jordan Lawlar, SS

2025 Odds

50% The Field
25% Druw Jones, OF
25% Tommy Troy, SS

Lawlar is a cinch to graduate from prospect status, leaving the next handful of Arizona prospects as ideal succession candidates. In this case, the D-backs’ last two first-round picks—Jones in 2022 and Troy in 2023—are the favorites. Jones is coming off two seasons lost to injury and has to answer major questions about his hit tool. Troy is a well-rounded college hitter who projects to second base and may not have a carrying tool. Arizona’s top 2024 draft pick is unlikely to be a factor. By winning the NL pennant, the D-backs’ first pick falls to No. 29 overall. 

Atlanta Braves

Current No. 1: AJ Smith-Shawver, RHP

2025 Odds

30% 2024 First-Round Pick
25% The Field 
15% Hurston Waldrep, RHP
10% JR Ritchie, RHP
10% Jose Perdomo, SS
10% Owen Murphy, RHP

It’s difficult to benchmark odds for the Braves without knowing whether or not Waldrep will still be prospect eligible. His 15% chance represents the confidence that he could be moved rapidly to the big league roster in 2024 and simply not be eligible a year from now. If that’s not the case, his combination of stuff and proximity would represent a strong case for No. 1 status. Ritchie, Perdomo and Murphy could all have compelling cases and all three are in contention for top-100 prospect status with strong seasons, but each has question marks of their own between health (Ritchie), velocity (Murphy) and proximity (Perdomo).

Baltimore Orioles

Current No. 1: Jackson Holliday, SS 

2025 Odds

70% Samuel Basallo, C
10% Jackson Holliday, SS
10% Coby Mayo, 3B
5% 2024 Draftee
2.5% Enrique Bradfield Jr., OF
2.5% Seth Johnson, RHP

Ideally both Holliday and Mayo graduate from prospect status at some point in 2024. The 10% for each is simply acknowledging that things sometimes go awry. Outside of Holliday and Mayo, Basallo is the clear heir to No. 1 in the Orioles farm system rankings. The prodigious slugger hit .307/.398/.547 in his age-18 season across both A levels before earning a late-season cup of coffee in Double-A. Whether or not Basallo has the defensive chops to stick behind the plate is still a lingering question, but his presence at a premium defensive position certainly doesn’t hurt his perceived value. It’s hard to envision another legitimate candidate for next season. Perhaps there’s the very slim chance Basallo forces his way to the major leagues and just graduates from prospect status. That could open the door for one of three potential scenarios their 2024 draftee rises to the top of the organization’s rankings or a dark horse candidate like Bradfield Jr. or Johnson experiences a breakout 2024. The smart money is on Basallo. 

Boston Red Sox

Current No. 1: Marcelo Mayer, SS

2025 Odds

40% Marcelo Mayer, SS
40% Roman Anthony, OF
10% Kyle Teel, C
10% The Field

The Red Sox enter 2024 with two top-25 prospects and their No. 3 prospect ranked No. 62 in the most recent Top 100. Mayer, the current No. 1, enters 2024 looking to redeem himself after an injury-plagued season. Both Anthony and Teel reached Double-A Portland by the end of 2023 and are viewed as two arrow-up prospects heading into 2024. All three should team up in Portland to begin 2024 and it would not be unreasonable to see all three with the Red Sox at some point next season. Despite being in the organization for for a little more than six months, Teel looks the most likely to debut in the major leagues in 2024. A polished college player Teel is a skilled hitter still growing into impact with strong defensive skills behind the plate. Both Mayer and Anthony offer more offensive upside than Teel, but are likely further away from finished products on both sides of the ball. Each will likely see a solid chunk of time in Worcester regardless of how much they produce. The smart money is on one of Mayer and Anthony retaining prospect status heading into 2024. 

Chicago Cubs

Current No. 1: Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF

2025 Odds

25% Cade Horton, RHP
25% Matt Shaw, SS
25% The Field
10% Moises Ballesteros, C
10% Kevin Alcantara, OF
5% Jefferson Rojas, SS

Horton and Shaw, the Cubs’ first-round picks in the last two drafts, each have strong odds to check in at No. 1 if and when Crow-Armstrong graduates. Both played so well in 2023, however, that they could also find themselves gone from the world of prospects by this time next year. If that’s the case, the crown could be snatched by Ballesteros or Alcantara. Both players have high upsides but long roads to reach them. Ballesteros can hit but needs to stay on top of his conditioning and Alcantara can do it all but needs to command the strike zone a bit better. The wild card here is Rojas, a high-ceiling shortstop who earned a quick bump out of the Arizona Complex League in 2023 and held his own at Low-A as one of the Carolina League’s youngest players. 

Chicago White Sox

Current No. 1: Colson Montgomery, SS

2025 Odds

30% Colson Montgomery, SS
30% 2024 First-Round Pick
20% Noah Schultz, LHP
10% Edgar Quero, C
10% The Field

Montgomery is one of the best prospects in the sport. He currently ranks No. 15 overall in the Top 100 Prospects thanks to an excellent combination of hittability, power and the athleticism to play up the middle. He’s had trouble staying healthy, however, and has struggled in both of his stints at Double-A. If Montgomery mashes and graduates, he could easily be replaced by the player Chicago chooses with the No. 5 pick in the 2024 draft. The other big candidate here is Schultz, who, like Montgomery, has had trouble staying on the field. When healthy in 2023, Schultz was dominant and allowed runs in just one of his 10 starts. Quero was one of the prizes Chicago landed from the Angels in the Lucas Giolito/Reynaldo Lopez trade at the deadline. He’s an impressive young backstop who has moved very quickly through the minor leagues.

Cincinnati Reds

Current No. 1: Noelvi Marte, 3B

2025 Odds

30% 2024 First-Round Pick
20% Rhett Lowder, RHP
15% Chase Petty, RHP
15% The Field
10% Edwin Arroyo, SS
5% Leonardo Balcazar, SS
5% Alfredo Duno, C

Marte should graduate, and the odds for Lowder are lowered by the possibility he could arrive in Cincinnati soon enough to no longer be eligible in 2025. Picking second overall means the Reds have a very solid chance that a player not currently in the organization is going to end up being next year’s No. 1. If Balcazar makes a full recovery from his torn ACL, he has the tools to be a No. 1 prospect, as does Duno, who should come to the U.S., but is a better bet to be the 2026 No. 1 prospect.

Cleveland Guardians

Current No. 1: Chase DeLauter, OF

2025 Odds

60% 2024 First-Round Pick
15% The Field
10% Chase DeLauter, OF
10% Daniel Espino, RHP
5% Welbyn Francisco, SS

Right now the 2024 draft is viewed as one that’s deep but one that lacks star power. True as that may be,  the No. 1 pick in the draft more often than not jumps straight to the top of a team’s prospect rankings. Since the draft slot system was instituted in 2012, seven of the 12 No. 1 picks have led their team’s rankings the next year. Many of the cases where they didn’t are weird exceptions: Brady Aiken didn’t sign because of medical concerns. Jackson Holliday joined a team that had another prospect who was getting ready to win AL rookie of the year. So expect to see the No. 1 pick topping the Guardians’ Top 30 next year. If Daniel Espino comes back healthy, he’s a dark horse candidate to upset these odds.

Colorado Rockies

Current No. 1: Adael Amador

40% Adael Amador, SS
15% Chase Dollander, RHP
10% 2024 First-Round Pick
10% Yanquiel Fernandez, OF
10% Robert Calaz, OF
5% Jordan Beck, OF
5% The Field
2.5% Sterlin Thompson, 2B
2.5% Zac Veen, OF

The Rockies are an interesting group. It’s reasonable to expect the seven players listed above are all prospect-eligible in 2025. Amador, the reigning No. 1 and a top-50 prospect, is the most likely choice at No. 1 in 2025. He should return to Double-A Hartford at at least the first half of 2024 and the Rockies have a glut of infielders, so he’s unlikely to see extensive time in the majors at 21 years old. There’s still the possibility he does, and the Rockies were aggressive with Ezequiel Tovar at a similar point in his development. This opens the door for their 2023 first-rounder, Dollander, to recapture some of his prospect pedigree.

Colorado picks No. 3 in the 2024 draft, ensuring a chance at one of the presumptive top three college hitters: JJ Weatherholt, Travis Bazzana or Nick Kurtz. Each hitter could be a top-50 prospect in baseball as soon as he signs. The remaining options include a pair of exciting international signings with plus power potential, Fernandez and Calaz, in a demographic the Rockies have excelled in as of late. Beck, Thompson and Veen all offer interesting dark horse choice but likely don’t have the impact to overcome the group in front of them. Beck is the best of the long shots with the ability to handle centerfield with plus power and potential to improve his contact and approach in 2024. 

Detroit Tigers

Current No. 1: Max Clark, OF

2025 Odds

40% Max Clark, OF
30% Jackson Jobe, RHP
15% 2024 First-Round Pick
10% The Field
5% Jose Briceno, C

Clark is the odds-on favorite to repeat at No. 1, as he’s a high-profile prospect who shouldn’t graduate. Jobe could have ranked No. 1 this year as well, but his injury risk as a pitcher, and his potential to graduate keeps him from having equivalent odds to be No. 1 next year. Much of the Tigers’ Top 10 are players who played at Double-A or above in 2023 and should graduate if they are impressive enough to garner No. 1 prospect consideration.

Houston Astros

Current No. 1: Jacob Melton, OF

2025 Odds

30% Jacob Melton, OF
10% Luis Baez, OF
10% Spencer Arrighetti, RHP
10% Brice Matthews, SS
10% Zach Dezenzo, 3B
10% The Field 
10% 2024 First-Round Pick 
5% Zach Cole, OF
5% Alonzo Tredwell, RHP

In all likelihood, Melton will enter 2025 retaining his prospect eligibility. It’s possible that he hits his way to the big leagues, as the Astros currently are fairly shallow in the outfield. Still, there’s options on the 40-man likely to see major league time before Melton. So he’s the odds-on favorite to retain the top spot heading into 2025. Behind Melton is a laundry list of options with long-shot odds at No. 1. Baez and Dezenzo are power-hitting prospects with No. 1 upside if they prove their hit tools to be average or better in 2024. Matthews, the Astros 2023 first rounder, is another option if he proves he can replicate his production at Nebraska against High-A and Double-A competition, Matthews has the tools to claim the top spot next season. The most interesting long-shot choices are tooled up outfielder Zach Cole, who has multiple plus tools but his poor bat-to-ball skills are a major question mark. Tredwell was pitching his way into the first round with UCLA prior to the 2023 draft but a back injury ended his season and delayed his professional debut. A dominant showing across both Class A levels could push Tredwell to the top of the system. The other option is the 2024 first-round pick at No. 28 overall.

Kansas City Royals

Current No. 1: Blake Mitchell, C

2025 Odds

40% 2024 First-Round Pick
25% Blake Mitchell, C
10% Frank Mozzicato, LHP
10% Ramon Ramirez, C
10%  The Field
5% Yandel Ricardo, SS

Kansas City’s system is muddled but help is on the way. The Royals hold the No. 6 overall pick in the 2024 draft and the player they choose there is likely to land atop their Top 30 in a year. Mitchell, their current No. 1 overall prospect, might also retain his crown with a strong first full year as a professional. Other candidates include Mozzicato, a lefthander who carved at Low-A before an injury but hit a speed bump at High-A; Ramirez, an 18-year-old backstop who dominated the DSL in his first pro stint and looked excellent at stateside instructional league and Ricardo, the team’s top signee from the international period that opened on Jan. 15, 2024. 

Los Angeles Angels

Current No. 1: Nolan Schanuel, 1B

2025 Odds

40% 2024 First-Round Pick
25% The Field
15% Nelson Rada, OF
15% Caden Dana, RHP
5% Kyren Paris, SS

The Angels enter 2024 ranked near the bottom of our farm system talent rankings and their No. 1 prospect, Nolan Schanuel, should graduate barring something catastrophic. There isn’t a slam dunk option behind him. While the 2024 draft class isn’t particularly strong, the No. 8 pick should still yield an impactful prospect. That could be enough to immediately rank No. 1 in the present system. There’s also the chance that any of Rada, Dana or Paris take another step forward, but we’ve put grades on each that suggest more low-end regular potential. So that leaves plenty of opportunity for the field. While it’s rare for a player from outside the top 10 to rise to the top of a system in one year, this is the right situation for it to happen. We’ll also leave the door ever-so-slightly ajar for an infusion of talent from the trade market if Mike Trout decides he’s ready for greener pastures elsewhere.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Current No. 1: Dalton Rushing, C

2025 Odds

30% Dalton Rushing, C
20% Nick Frasso, RHP
20% The Field
20% Josue De Paula, OF
10% Thayron Liranzo, C

Rushing dealt with injuries in 2023 but was consistently praised by evaluators as one of the purest-hitting catchers in the minor leagues. He struggled to hit for average at High-A but got on base and hit for power. A clean bill of health could help him reinforce his stronghold on the No. 1 spot. If not, Frasso could overtake him with a strong season. The former Blue Jays prospect dealt with illness in 2023 that sapped his durability but when healthy has an outstanding three-pitch mix led by a double-plus fastball. The wild cards here are De Paula and Liranzo, each of him put together outstanding seasons in 2023. De Paula skipped the Arizona Complex League and showed uncommon hittability in Low-A while the switch-hitting Liranzo led the Low-A California League in home runs despite playing in just 94 games.

Miami Marlins

Current No. 1: Noble Meyer, RHP

2025 Odds

60% Noble Meyer, RHP
20% Thomas White, LHP
15% Luis Cova, OF
5% The Field

Meyer was the best prep pitching prospect on the board and wowed evaluators in a brief pro debut split between the Florida Complex League and Low-A Jupiter. He has wicked pure stuff and the combination of drive and curiosity to work to make his repertoire even better as he moves up the ladder. White was the top prep lefty available and the Marlins pounced when he was still around at No. 35 overall. He has an excellent three-pitch mix but needs to tighten his command. The biggest wild card is Cova, who was Miami’s top signing in the international period that opened on Jan. 15, 2024. His stock was trending up as signing day approached and has the tool set and potential to jump the line and reign as No. 1 come 2025.

Milwaukee Brewers

Current No. 1: Jackson Chourio, OF

2025 Odds

35% The Field 35%
25% Jacob Misiorowski, RHP
25% Jeferson Quero, C
5%  Luis Lara, OF
5% Brock Wilken, 3B
5% Yophery Rodriguez, OF

Chourio, Tyler Black and Robert Gasser should all graduate in 2024. That leaves Misiorowski and Quero as the favorites to be the top prospect in the system entering next year. Misiorowski is in the conversation for the most electric stuff in the minors, with his control still a red flag. Quero is one of the best catching prospects in baseball and will likely spend most, if not all, of 2024 in Triple-A as a 21-year-old. Center fielder Luis Lara took a leap forward in 2023 and could enter the Top 100 prospect conversation in 2024. Outfielder Yophery Rodriguez could take a similar jump in prospect status this year in his first season in the United States, while 2023 draft picks like third basemen Brock Wilken and Eric Bitonti, righthander Josh Knoth and shortstop Cooper Pratt could all elevate their status, with third baseman Luke Adams the wild card if he rakes at Double-A. 

Minnesota Twins

Current No. 1: Walker Jenkins, OF

2025 Odds

60% Walker Jenkins, OF
20% Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF
15% The Field
5% Marco Raya, RHP

Jenkins is one of the likeliest repeat No. 1 prospects we’ve had in quite a while. Even in a nightmare scenario where he missed the entire year with an injury, his combination of top-level tools and advanced skills would likely see him repeat in that spot. Rodriguez does have the potential to have a breakout year, but even if he did, it would be hard for him to top Jenkins on next year’s list unless Jenkins displays some as yet unseen flaws. The Twins don’t pick until 21st in the first round. It’s hard to imagine how the player they pick there will leap over Jenkins a year from now.

New York Mets

Current No. 1: Jett Williams, SS

2025 Odds

80% Jett Williams, SS
10% The Field
5% Ronny Mauricio, SS
5% Ryan Clifford, OF/1B

Williams established his hitting credentials in his full-season debut by becoming the rare 19-year-old draftee to reach Double-A. Many of his older Binghamton teammates, including Drew Gilbert, Luisangel Acuña and Christian Scott, are expected to be MLB options this season. And while Williams could conceivably enter the big league picture, it is more likely that he spends the season in the upper minors rounding out his game for 2025. Mauricio will miss the season following knee reconstruction, while Clifford must overcome a dubious debut in the Mets system following his trade from the Astros. Both have potential carrying tools. A new face could emerge to become the No. 1 prospect, but that new face is unlikely to be the Mets’ first-round pick. New York picks 19th overall after being assessed a 10-pick penalty for exceeding the second surcharge threshold of the competitive balance tax by more than $40 million.  

New York Yankees

Current No. 1: Jasson Dominguez, OF

2025 Odds

40% Spencer Jones, OF
20% Roderick Arias, SS
20% Chase Hampton, RHP
10% Henry Lalane, LHP
10% The Field

The Yankees have a trio of players at the top of their system—Dominguez, Everson Pereira and Austin Wells—who are likely to graduate from prospect status in the coming season. The likeliest candidate to take the top spot in 2025 is Jones, a massive-framed outfielder with the upside to match. When everything clicked in 2023, Jones showed the makings of a true five-tool player. He’ll need to cut down on the swing-and-miss to reach his ceiling, but he made progress in that regard toward the end of the season. Hampton is the system’s top pitching prospect thanks to a repertoire that scored well both by traditional and more analytical metrics. He is unlikely to graduate in 2024 but could make his big league debut. Arias and Lalane were the jewels of the Yankees’ stacked team in the Florida Complex League. The former is a shortstop with the potential for five-tool impact while the latter showed a devastating mix from the left side. 

Oakland Athletics

Current No. 1: Mason Miller, RHP

2025 Odds

35% 2024 First-Round Pick
25% Jacob Wilson, SS
25% Luis Morales, RHP 
10% Denzel Clarke, OF
5% The Field

Both Mason Miller and Tyler Soderstrom are set to graduate barring injury, which we acknowledge is a risk for Miller. Several others further down the top 10 are also positioned for big league contributions. So the top of the system should see significant turnover. Oakland has the No. 4 overall pick and could land one of the four best players on our draft board: Nick Kurtz, JJ Wetherholt, Travis Bazzana or Jac Caglianone. Each would make a convincing argument for the top spot in the system if they continue on their current trajectory. Wilson is a safe choice as a surehanded defender at shortstop with great bat-to-ball skills who could move quickly, but his power output is a considerable question mark. Morales is armed with an upper-90s heater, vicious breaking ball and an easy delivery with low miles on his arm. He has an opportunity to not only claim the top spot in Oakland’s system, but also rise our Top 100, if he can string together starts while throwing consistent strikes. Clarke is a sleeper choice if the A’s continue to move him along methodically. His rise hinges on continued maturation of his hit tool to round out his profile, but the rest of his tools remain dynamic.  

Philadelphia Phillies

Current No. 1: Andrew Painter, RHP

2025 Odds

50% Andrew Painter, RHP
25% Justin Crawford, OF
10% Starlyn Caba, SS
10% Aidan Miller, 3B
5% The Field

Painter was the sport’s best pitching prospect after the 2022 season, but was injured for all of 2023 before having Tommy John surgery that will keep him on the injured list throughout 2024. The next-closest contender for the No. 1 spot is Crawford, whom the Phillies chose with their first-round selection in 2022. The speedy outfielder did a lot of things right in 2023 and could explode in 2024 by getting the ball in the air more often. A move to hitter-friendly Reading might help him even more. Lurking behind the more-seasoned pair is Caba, a shortstop who drew raves for his defensive work and all-around skill set. He missed most of his first pro season with an elbow injury but could leap up the board in 2024. Miller, the team’s 2023 first-rounder, also has an outside chance thanks to a polished lefthanded swing that could produce both contact and impact. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Current No. 1: Paul Skenes, RHP

2025 Odds
30% Bubba Chandler, RHP
30% Termarr Johnson, 2B
20% 2024 First-Round Pick
20% The Field

If everything goes according to plan, Skenes, the No. 1 overall pick from 2023, will bully his way through the minors in 2024 and graduate from prospect status. If that’s the case, Pittsburgh has a strong contingent waiting in the wings as his replacement. Chandler began scratching at the surface of his ceiling in 2023, when he came on strong in the second half and closed the year with a whizbang debut in Double-A. Johnson showed flashes of his offensive potential between the Class A levels and still has a chance to be a well-rounded hitter who would fit nicely in the middle of Pittsburgh’s lineup in the coming years, but he needs to find a consistent approach to blend his skills. The Pirates also hold the No. 9 overall pick in the coming draft and whoever they choose might jump the line. 

St. Louis Cardinals

Current No. 1: Masyn Winn, SS

2025 Odds

20% Tink Hence, RHP
20% Victor Scott II, OF
20% Tekoah Roby, RHP
20% 2024 First-Round Pick
10% The Field 
5% Thomas Saggese, 2B
5% Chase Davis, OF

With Winn just eight at-bats away from graduating from prospect eligibility, he’s a fairly sure bet to graduate in the first half of 2024, if not the first two games. This leaves a trio of Top 100 prospects who rate closely enough to be viewed as a pick ’em between the three. Hence and Roby are both likely to retain prospect status heading into 2025 and inside and outside the organization opinions are split on which pitcher is better. Hence and Roby both possess excellent stuff across their pitch mix and come with durability questions. Either could separate themselves from the other with a strong 2024 campaign. Scott had an outstanding 2023, and is the archetype of player who has benefited the most from recent rule changes.

Scott is also an outstanding center field defender, a position that’s in dire need of impactful offensive contributors with defensive chops. Scott could graduate later this summer but has a good chance of retaining prospect eligibility heading into 2025. The Cardinals find themselves in the unusual position of picking in the top 10 in the 2024 draft and it’s not unreasonable to think they land a talent at seventh overall worthy of No. 1 status. Both Saggese and Davis are interesting prospects but neither is likely to push for the top overall ranking in the organization heading into 2025. Saggese has the ability to hit his way to the top, but his short ETA and likely starting place of Triple-A make it unlikely he’s still a prospect entering 2025. 

San Diego Padres

Current No. 1: Ethan Salas, C

2025 Odds

35% Ethan Salas, C
25% Jackson Merrill, SS
15% The Field
10% Robby Snelling, LHP
10%: Dylan Lesko, RHP
5% Leodalis De Vries, SS

In other systems, Salas would be an odds-on favorite to be a repeat No. 1 prospect, but this isn’t an ordinary system. It’s not hard to envision a scenario where Merrill dominates in the minors, makes a late-season big league appearance and edges Salas for the top spot a year from now. Snelling and Lesko are pitchers who could lead a list as well, but the competition for that spot as well as Snelling’s chances to graduate lower their percentages. De Vries is a name to watch for our 2026 No. 1 prospect odds.

San Francisco Giants

Current No. 1: Kyle Harrison, LHP

2025 Odds

40% Bryce Eldridge, OF
30% Carson Whisenhunt, LHP
30% The Field

The Giants are likely to graduate their top two prospects—Harrison and shortstop Marco Luciano—in 2024. When that happens, Eldridge, a hulking slugger whom San Francisco selected in the first round of the 2023 draft, is likely to take over the top spot. Eldridge was a two-way player in high school whose likely path to the big leagues is in the batter’s box. He was a favorite of scouts who saw him both in the Arizona Complex League and at Low-A. A year prior, the Giants gambled on Whisenhunt and were rewarded with a strong season that included a berth in the Futures Game. His year was cut short by injury, however, stopping his progress in its tracks. If he is healthy again in 2024, he could reach the big leagues. 

Seattle Mariners

Current No. 1: Cole Young, SS

2025 Odds

30% The Field
25% Cole Young, SS
20% Colt Emerson, SS
15% Harry Ford, C
10% Felnin Celesten, SS

If you wanted to get more granular, there are a lot of names you could put as No. 1 candidates in a system loaded with fun-to-dream-on young prospects. That’s why the field has better odds than any individual prospect. There’s no way to predict if a Jonny Farmelo, Tai Peete, Jeter Martinez or someone else could pop. The Mariners have the 15th pick in the 2024 draft, so throw the first-round pick into those field odds as well.

Tampa Bay Rays

Current No. 1: Junior Caminero, 3B

2025 Odds

35% Carson Williams, SS
20% Brayden Taylor, 2B/3B
20% The Field
15% Xavier Isaac, 1B
10% 2024 First-Round Pick

A number of the Rays’ top prospects (Caminero, Curtis Mead, Shane Baz) should graduate in almost any circumstance. Willams’ odds are lowered because he could also graduate if the Rays need shortstop help in the second half of the season. Picking the field is always an alluring pick for a team that also makes a large volume of trades that could bring in another No. 1 candidate.

Texas Rangers

Current No. 1: Evan Carter, OF

2025 Odds
50% Sebastian Walcott, SS
30% Brock Porter, RHP
10% The Field
10% 2024 First-Round Pick

Texas is in the enviable situation of having a team that just won a World Series and two of the best prospects in the sport. Carter was part of the run to the title and Langford bashed his way to Triple-A in the months following his selection. Both players are likely to graduate in 2024, however, and many of the team’s better prospects—Owen White, Justin Foscue and possibly Dustin Harris—have a chance to do the same. That leaves a clear path for Walcott, who reached High-A in his first pro season, to take over at No. 1. Righthander Brock Porter made strides with his breaking ball as the season went on and is a candidate here as well. Texas holds the No. 30 overall pick in the coming draft, but if the system is hollowed by graduations, their selection has an outside chance to jump in immediately at No. 1.

Toronto Blue Jays

Current No. 1: Ricky Tiedemann, LHP

2025 Odds

30% Ricky Tiedemann, LHP
20% The Field 
20% Arjun Nimmala, SS 
10% 2024 First-Round Pick
10% Brandon Barriera, LHP
10% Enmanuel Bonilla, OF

Outside of Tiedemann, the Blue Jays enter 2024 without many true No. 1 prospect-caliber options. It’s likely Orelvis Martinez graduates this season and the cast of characters behind him mostly fall into the 45-grade bucket. The Blue Jays don’t pick until No. 20 in 2024 and it’s unlikely they land a true No. 1 prospect, but stranger things have happened. Tiedemann has a 2024 ETA but doesn’t have the track record of health or workload to anticipate anything more than 120 innings in 2024. More than likely 70-80% of those innings come in Triple-A, leaving the window open for Tiedemann to debut in 2024 and retain prospect status heading into 2025. If Tiedemann debuts before the all-star break and remains healthy all bets are off. 2022 first-rounder Brandon Barriera dealt with his own health struggles in 2023, but has the ability to make a substantial jump up prospect rankings with a healthy and productive 2024. Nimmala is the presumed heir to Tiedemann at No. 1, but is still fairly raw and could experience some growing pains in 2024. 

Washington Nationals

Current No. 1: Dylan Crews, OF

2025 Odds

40% Dylan Crews, OF
40% James Wood, OF
10% Brady House, 3B
5% Elijah Green, OF
5% The Field

The Nationals are not going to be contenders this season, meaning they could hold top prospect, Dylan Crews, in the minors, maintaining his prospect eligibility heading into the 2025 season. The margin between Crews and Wood was closer this season than some imagined, so Wood could overtake the top spot with a powerful year at the plate. House is back on track after fully recovering from a back injury that sidelined him for most of 2021. A monster season from the third baseman could put him on top. Seeing Green mentioned among top prospects again is likely foreign to Nationals fans. The elite athlete dropped to No. 9 in their Preseason Top 30 Prospects after a season full of strikeouts. It is not likely, but maybe this season everything clicks for Green and he becomes the once-in-a-generation athlete some thought he would. Who knows, this year could surprise us all. 

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