The Baseballist: Mining For Power Prospects Around The Diamond — College Baseball, MLB Draft, Prospects

Scouts don’t rely on the number in the “home runs” column when grading a young player’s raw power—and neither should fantasy owners.

Instead, scouts study hitters in batting practice to see (and hear) how the ball comes off his bat. They also consider the quality and frequency of a batter’s hard contact in games. So to some extent, the outs a batter consumes when not going deep, or what he does when not putting the ball in play, are irrelevant to his raw-power evaluation. This particularly holds for talented young players who are not yet fully developed hitters.

For this reason, the long-standing fantasy baseball resource Baseball HQ evaluates power using a metric they call linear-weighted power (LwPwr), which measures the quality of a batter’s extra-base production per ball in play. (Read all about it here.) Using the LwPwr formula, doubles and triples are weighted at 0.8, while home runs are weighted at 1.4, and the sum of those values is then divided by a batter’s at-bats (minus) strikeouts. This ignores what a batter does while not putting the ball in play, so you must factor his strikeout and walk rates separately.

One can then scale this LwPWr value to the league average to determine what Baseball HQ calls linear-weighted power index (PX), which is what I have used in this piece to rank prospects at each position. Think of PX as a power ceiling for each player, because as noted, strikeouts are not counted against him.

Adding one further wrinkle to the PX formula, I adjusted it for the home-run park factor for each player. This step is important, because minor league parks feature radically different home-run conditions. The end result of this calculation is the number found in the PX column throughout. Keep in mind that because PX is an index, a value of 100 is average, while those who score at 150 would be 50 percent better than league average(s).

So that you can assess the PX metric yourself, here are the American and National league leaders for park-adjusted power index in 2015. Batters require 300 plate appearances, and the doubles column includes triples.

American	PA	2B	HR	PX	National	PA	2B	HR	PX
M. Sano	335	18	18	210	G. Stanton	318	13	27	280
M. Trout	682	38	41	192	R. Grichuk	350	30	17	225
J.D. Martinez	657	35	38	190	B. Harper	654	39	42	212
C. Davis	670	31	47	180	P. Goldschmidt	695	40	33	191
N. Cruz	655	23	44	172	B. Belt	556	38	18	187
D. Ortiz	614	37	37	167	M. Carpenter	665	47	28	182
C. Rasmus	485	25	25	165	L. Duda	554	33	27	180
J. Donaldson	711	43	41	164	B. Crawford	561	37	21	177
C. Carter	460	17	24	164	J. Bour	446	20	23	167
J. Bautista	666	32	40	163	N. Arenado	665	47	42	160

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Now, let’s turn our attention to prospects, specifically those who appear in the 2016 Prospect Handbook. I have filtered players by their primary position and have considered only statistics from full-season minor leagues. The Level column represents primary level in 2015, while OPS+ is a league-adjusted, park-adjusted production index, similar to the Baseball-Reference.com version.

Take note fantasy players in deep keeper leagues, especially if you’re looking for potential power sources down the line. You’ll note that these tables skew toward players at the Class A levels. I think this is true for two reasons: (1) a larger gap in production exists between players at the lower levels, and (2) players who spent most of 2015 at Double-A or Triple-A were more likely be called up, thus disqualifying them for these rankings.

For example, the following players in the Prospect Handbook would have ranked on the power-index tables below had they not been promoted to the majors: outfielders Max Kepler (165), Steven Moya (219), Peter O’Brien (205), Jarrett Parker (219) and Mac Williamson (163); third basemen Joey Gallo (236), Jefry Marte (195) and Richie Shaffer (256); second baseman Rob Refsnyder (130), shortstop Corey Seager (141) and catchers Gary Sanchez (198) and Tom Murphy (191).

We begin with the most powerful positions—first base and outfield—and from there work our way down to shortstop and catcher.

First Base
No.	Player	B	Org	Level	PA	OPS+	SO%	BB%	PX
1	Bobby Bradley	L	CLE	Lo A	474	166	31.6	12.0	238
2	Cody Bellinger	L	LAD	Hi A	544	137	27.6	9.6	213
3	Nellie Rodriguez	R	CLE	Hi A	565	124	28.1	10.6	206
4	Kyle Martin	L	PHI	Lo A	272	131	20.6	6.3	202
5	Rhys Hoskins	R	PHI	Lo A	567	177	17.5	9.7	189
6	Matt Olson	L	OAK	AA	585	127	23.8	17.9	180
7	Ryan O’Hearn	L	KC	Lo A	537	133	26.3	10.2	177
8	Casey Gillaspie	B	TB	Lo A	313	142	16.6	10.2	172
9	A.J. Reed	L	HOU	Hi A	622	176	19.6	13.8	156
10	Jake Bauers	L	TB	AA	534	130	13.9	9.4	152

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Just Missed: The Blue Jays’ Rowdy Tellez (140) and the Orioles’ Trey Mancini (139) would have cracked the top 20.

Top Dog: The Indians’ Bobby Bradley cranked 27 home runs, drove in 92 runs and slugged .529 at low Class A Lake County to lead the Midwest League in all three categories.

The Newcomer: The Phillies selected South Carolina senior Kyle Martin in the fourth round last year, and he collected 28 extra-base hits in 65 game at low Class A Lakewood after signing. He showed the ability to drive the ball out from foul pole to foul pole in college.

The Top Prospect: The Astros’ A.J. Reed ranks No. 11 on this year’s Top 100 Prospects.

Nowhere To Go But Up: The Rangers’ Ronald Guzman (80) is the only full-season first baseman in the Prospect Handbook to come in under 100 for park-adjusted power index. He did most of his damage at high Class A High Desert, a notorious hitter’s haven. Guzman slugged just .371 in California League road games last year.

Outfield
No.	Player	B	Org	Level	PA	OPS+	SO%	BB%	PX
1	Adam Brett Walker	R	MIN	AA	560	117	34.8	9.1	273
2	Jabari Blash	R	SD	AA	476	160	25.8	12.4	229
3	Christin Stewart	L	DET	Lo A	216	151	20.8	8.3	228
4	Jordan Patterson	L	COL	Hi A	541	162	24.0	5.5	226
5	Victor Roache	R	MIL	Hi A	513	133	30.8	8.6	202
6	Harrison Bader	R	STL	Lo A	228	156	19.3	6.6	201
7	Aaron Judge	R	NYY	AA	540	131	26.7	9.8	199
8	Mike Gerber	L	DET	Lo A	583	138	16.6	8.4	194
9	Ian Happ	B	CHC	Lo A	165	121	23.6	10.3	188
10	Andrew Benintendi	L	BOS	Lo A	86	188	10.5	11.6	188
11	Bubba Starling	R	KC	AA	418	128	25.8	8.9	180
12	Clint Coulter	R	MIL	Hi A	569	131	16.2	8.1	174
13	Jon Kemmer	L	HOU	AA	425	185	20.9	10.6	173
14	Jacob Scavuzzo	R	LAD	Hi A	481	136	20.4	5.8	170
15	Taylor Motter	R	TB	AAA	558	145	17.0	10.2	169
16	Courtney Hawkins	R	CWS	AA	330	102	30.3	6.1	169
17	Bradley Zimmer	L	CLE	Hi A	549	136	23.9	10.0	166
18	Hunter Cole	R	SF	Hi A	499	143	20.0	7.6	166
19	Wuilmer Becerra	R	NYM	Lo A	487	130	19.7	6.8	164
20	Ben Gamel	L	NYY	AAA	551	149	19.6	8.3	163

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Just Missed: Hard-hitting outfielders Clint Frazier (162) of the Indians, Hunter Renfroe (157) of the Padres and Lewis Brinson (149) of the Rangers all finished inside the top 30, but just outside the top 20.

Top Dog: Double-A Chattanooga corner outfielder Adam Brett Walker led the Southern League with 31 homers, 106 RBIs and 65 extra-base hits last season, but his strikeout rate must come down for him to maximize his incredible raw power.

The Newcomers: Four college outfielders selected in the 2015 draft stood out for their power production last summer: the Tigers’ Christin Stewart (Tennessee, first round), the Cardinals’ Harrison Bader (Florida, third), the Cubs’ Ian Happ (Cincinnati, first) and reigning BA College Player of the Year Andrew Benintendi (Arkansas, first) of the Red Sox. Note that the Cubs plan to play Happ at second base in 2016.

The Top Prospect: No. 15 Andrew Benintendi takes the honor, but only because No. 2 Byron Buxton (148) reached the majors and is thus disqualified for this list.

Nowhere To Go But Up: The Brewers’ Kyle Wren (35), the Orioles’ Josh Hart (39) and the Blue Jays’ Roemon Fields (47) are the only full-season outfielders in the Prospect Handbook to bat more than 100 times and check in under 50 for park-adjusted power index. All three are speed-first players with fifth-outfielder or pinch-runner aspirations.

Third Base
No.	Player	B	Org	Level	PA	OPS+	SO%	BB%	PX
1	Ryan McMahon	L	COL	Hi A	556	158	27.5	8.8	220
2	Eric Jagielo	L	CIN	AA	248	150	23.4	7.3	211
3	Michael Chavis	R	BOS	Lo A	471	94	30.6	6.2	203
4	Taylor Sparks	R	CIN	Hi A	493	127	32.9	6.1	192
5	Eudor Garcia	L	NYM	Lo A	429	134	22.1	5.1	178
6	Jomar Reyes	R	BAL	Lo A	335	126	21.8	5.4	169
7	Brian Anderson	R	MIA	Hi A	530	109	20.6	7.5	165
8	Rafael Devers	L	BOS	Lo A	508	120	16.5	4.7	154
9	Paul DeJong	R	STL	Lo A	247	136	17.4	9.3	153
10	Miguel Andujar	R	NYY	Hi A	520	100	17.3	5.6	153
11	Renato Nunez	R	OAK	AA	416	121	15.9	6.7	152

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Just Missed: The Royals’ Hunter Dozier (142) and the Cubs’ Jeimer Candelario (138) both hit for power and both finished the season at Double-A. The Athletics’ Matt Chapman (130) led the minors in isolated slugging percentage (.316) among batters with at least 300 plate appearances. He played half his games at a power-friendly park at high Class A Stockton, however, and hit 16 of his 23 homers at home.

Top Dog: The Rockies’ Ryan McMahon led the California League with 43 doubles at high Class A Modesto, and he began to unlock home-run power in the second half, slamming 12 of his 18 homers.

The Newcomer: The Cardinals’ Paul DeJong, a fourth-round pick last year from Illinois State, has a “sound, aggressive swing with good plate coverage and above-average raw power that plays,” we wrote in his draft scouting report.

The Top Prospect: With No. 10 Joey Gallo having reached the big leagues, No. 18 Rafael Devers of the Red Sox is the top-ranked third-base prospect.

Nowhere To Go But Up: The Mets’ Jhoan Urena (52) suffered injuries to both wrists that hampered his ability to swing the bat at high Class A St. Lucie. Among healthy prospects, the Indians’ Yandy Diaz (83) is a fine defender and an excellent contact hitter, but power is not his strong suit.

Second Base
No.	Player	B	Org	Level	PA	OPS+	SO%	BB%	PX
1	Yoan Moncada	B	BOS	Lo A	363	134	22.9	11.6	164
2	Travis Demeritte	R	TEX	Lo A	198	115	34.8	12.6	160
3	Joey Wendle	L	OAK	AAA	618	118	18.4	3.6	147
4	Sean Coyle	R	BOS	AAA	148	75	29.7	13.5	143
5	Wendell Rijo	R	BOS	Hi A	455	105	20.7	7.5	140
6	Fernando Perez	L	SD	Hi A	492	82	23.4	7.9	128
7	Willie Calhoun	L	LAD	Hi A	148	166	13.5	8.1	127
8	Jamie Westbrook	R	ARI	Hi A	527	131	13.1	4.6	123
9	Alen Hanson	B	PIT	AAA	529	107	17.2	7.0	122
10	Joey Pankake	R	DET	Lo A	525	106	17.9	9.9	120

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Just Missed: The Cardinals’ Jacob Wilson (119) hits for power from the right side and plays both second and third base, but the Cardinals blocked his path to playing time when they traded for Jedd Gyorko in the offseason.

Top Dog: Fully healthy in the second half of 2015, Yoan Moncada hit .310/.415/.500 with seven of his eight homers at low Class A Greenville. He also stole 45 bases in 48 tries and is the most dynamic power-speed prospect in the game.

The Newcomer: The Dodgers selected Willie Calhoun in the fourth round of the 2015 draft out of Yavapai (Ariz.) JC. He led all NJCAA Division I hitters with 31 bombs last year, then slammed 35 extra-base hits in 73 pro games as he worked his way to high Class A Rancho Cucamonga. Calhoun is a 5-foot-8 lefthanded batter with no natural position, but he excels at turning on pitches for plus pull power.

The Top Prospect: Moncada ranks No. 3 on this year’s Top 100 Prospects.

Nowhere To Go But Up: The Astros’ Tony Kemp (54) and the Yankees’ Ronald Torreyes (55) are undersized spray hitters with plus bat-to-ball skills who can play multiple positions.

Shortstop
No.	Player	B	Org	Level	PA	OPS+	SO%	BB%	PX
1	Willy Adames	R	TB	Hi A	456	127	27.0	11.8	186
2	Trevor Story	R	COL	AAA	575	130	24.5	8.9	179
3	Javier Guerra	L	SD	Lo A	477	122	23.5	6.3	165
4	JaCoby Jones	R	DET	Hi A	594	116	27.8	8.2	157
5	Chad Pinder	R	OAK	AA	522	131	19.7	5.4	142
6	Alex Blandino	R	CIN	Hi A	480	146	16.0	10.2	136
7	Jorge Mateo	R	NYY	Lo A	500	121	19.6	8.6	134
8	Osvaldo Abreu	R	WAS	Lo A	513	121	17.3	9.7	131
9	Marco Hernandez	L	BOS	AA	484	127	18.2	3.5	126
10	Malquin Canelo	R	PHI	Hi A	559	121	16.5	6.6	121

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Just Missed: The Royals’ Raul A. Mondesi (115), the Giants’ Christian Arroyo (113) and the Nationals’ Trea Turner (112) all finished just outside the top 10. All three have high ceilings, while also having questions to answer.

Top Dog: The Rays’ Willy Adames hit just four home runs at high Class A Charlotte and struck out more than a quarter of the time, yet he has the quick hands and projection to grow into above-average power. He hits for plenty of thump now, but a tough home-run park muted Adames’ production last season, as did a bone bruise in his elbow.

The Newcomer: The Reds selected Stanford shortstop Alex Blandino in the first round of the 2014 draft, and he zoomed to Double-A Pensacola late in the 2015 season. His blend of power and on-base skills make him a potential starting middle infielder in the big leagues.

The Top Prospect: No. 26 Jorge Mateo turned in a higher park-adjusted power index than several prospects ranked ahead of him on the Top 100 Prospects, including No. 6 J.P. Crawford, No. 8 Orlando Arcia, No. 9 Turner and No. 17 Dansby Swanson.

Nowhere To Go But Up: The Reds’ Carlton Daal (21), the Twins’ Engelb Vielma (37) and the Padres’ Luis Urias (38) rely on defensive versatility and high contact rates—but not power—to stand out from the field.

Catcher
No.	Player	B	Org	Level	PA	OPS+	SO%	BB%	PX
1	Aramis Garcia	R	SF	Lo A	447	124	22.1	9.8	164
2	Alex Murphy	R	BAL	Lo A	134	115	23.1	8.2	152
3	Jorge Alfaro	R	PHI	AA	207	94	29.5	4.3	151
4	Chase Vallot	R	KC	Lo A	333	114	31.5	12.3	149
5	Deivi Gullon	R	PHI	Lo A	424	81	24.8	5.4	146
6	Andrew Knapp	B	PHI	Hi A	522	155	20.3	9.8	146
7	Justin O’Conner	R	TB	AA	444	81	29.1	2.9	137
8	Cam Gallagher	R	KC	Hi A	290	104	11.7	9.7	130
9	Carson Kelly	R	STL	Hi A	419	78	15.3	5.3	130
10	Victor Caratini	B	CHC	Hi A	453	122	16.6	10.8	127
11	Jacob Nottingham	R	MIL	Hi A	511	144	19.4	6.5	120

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Just Missed: The Dodgers’ Austin Barnes (119), the Pirates’ Elias Diaz (115) and the Cubs’ Willson Contreras (108) could be major league starters at some point during the next two seasons.

Top Dog: The Giants’ Aramis Garcia projects more as an average hitter with average power, but the talent level at catcher in the minors is down right now, especially with Gary Sanchez and Tom Murphy out of the picture. Garcia hit 15 homers in 83 games at low Class A Augusta last season before a late promotion to high Class A San Jose.

The Newcomer: “He has some of the best raw power in the (2014) high school class,” we wrote in the Royals’ Chase Vallot’s draft scouting report. “He struggled against velocity on the showcase circuit, showing swing-and-miss tendencies . . . He has a quick, easy swing with natural leverage that produces hard contact and has drawn rave reviews.” That report appears apt after Vallot, a supplemental first-round pick in 2014, hit .219 with 13 homers at low Class A Lexington last season, when he struck out nearly 32 percent of the time.

The Top Prospect: No player on this ranking cracked the Top 100 Prospects.

Nowhere To Go But Up: The Astros’ Alfredo Gonzalez (36) and the Pirates’ Reese McGuire (46) have strong defensive tools but have not yet hit much as professionals.