North Carolina Vs. USC Predictions & Preview: 2026 NCAA Baseball Tournament Super Regional
Image credit: Mason Edwards (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
The 2026 NCAA baseball tournament super regional round is set to get underway on Friday, June 5.
To get ready, Baseball America presents our team-by-team previews, including winner predictions for all eight matchups. You can find all of our super regional previews here.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Key Player To Know
Owen Hull has transformed into the catalyst of North Carolina’s offense after a slow start following his transfer from George Mason. Since April 1, Hull has been one of the hottest hitters in the country, helping lift his season line to .372/.493/.565 with seven home runs, 20 doubles, 79 RBIs and 17 stolen bases. A dynamic athlete, Hull pairs an advanced feel for hitting with gap power that consistently produces extra-base damage. His ability to reach base, drive the baseball and impact the game on the bases makes him one of the most complete players in the super regional field.
Standout Stat
North Carolina’s path to Omaha starts on the mound. The Tar Heels entered the postseason ranked eighth nationally in ERA, 32nd in FIP and 37th in xFIP while navigating one of the toughest schedules in the country. While the staff isn’t especially deep, it has the pieces that matter most in a super regional. Jason DeCaro and Ryan Lynch provide a reliable pair of starters, while freshman Caden Glauber and sophomore Walker McDuffie give North Carolina two trusted bullpen options capable of handling the highest-leverage innings. A strong weekend from those four arms could be enough to carry the Tar Heels through.
Why They Could Win
North Carolina is one of the most complete teams remaining in the field. The Tar Heels pair a quality lineup with high-end pitching and have the ability to control games on both sides of the ball. Their offense is capable of grinding through opposing staffs and creating scoring opportunities throughout the lineup, while their best arms can suffocate opposing offenses for long stretches. When North Carolina is playing its best baseball, it can dominate on the mound and at the plate simultaneously, a combination few teams in the country can match.
Why They Could Lose
For as strong as North Carolina’s pitching staff is, the lineup is the weaker half of the roster. The Tar Heels are capable offensively, but they aren’t necessarily overwhelming in the way that other remaining contenders are. That’s particularly relevant against a USC team built to thrive in low-scoring games and comfortable playing in tight margins. If the Trojans can keep scores down and prevent North Carolina from creating early separation, the pressure will shift onto the Tar Heels’ offense to produce in exactly the type of games USC prefers.
| Pos | Player | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | HR | RBI | |
| C | Colin Hynek | .271 | .360 | .486 | 214 | 8 | 53 | |
| 1B | Erik Paulsen | .297 | .425 | .479 | 219 | 10 | 52 | |
| 2B | Gavin Gallaher | .283 | .378 | .494 | 251 | 12 | 53 | |
| 3B | Cooper Nicholson | .269 | .438 | .591 | 193 | 16 | 48 | |
| SS | Jake Schaffner | .362 | .478 | .579 | 235 | 6 | 44 | |
| OF | Tyler Howe | .249 | .377 | .349 | 189 | 4 | 30 | |
| OF | Owen Hull | .372 | .493 | .565 | 223 | 7 | 79 | |
| OF | Carter French | .229 | .386 | .284 | 109 | 0 | 13 | |
| DH | Macon Winslow | .301 | .430 | .500 | 216 | 10 | 55 | |
| Pos | Player | W | L | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | SO/9 |
| SP | Jason DeCaro | 10 | 2 | 78.0 | 2.54 | 1.38 | 4.3 | 8.8 |
| SP | Ryan Lynch | 5 | 4 | 84.0 | 4.07 | 1.44 | 3.5 | 8.0 |
| SP | Folger Boaz | 3 | 3 | 56.1 | 7.03 | 1.85 | 3.7 | 8.5 |
| RP | Caden Glauber | 10 | 0 | 74.1 | 2.06 | 1.12 | 4.5 | 10.7 |
USC Trojans
Key Player To Know
Mason Edwards has a strong case as the most dominant pitcher in college baseball. The lefty enters super regional play with a 1.85 ERA and a nation-leading 164 strikeouts against 43 walks in 92.2 innings. His elite offspeed arsenal generates whiffs at an exceptional rate, and he routinely provides deep outings from the front of the rotation. Few players remaining in the tournament have the ability to impact a series the way Edwards can. A dominant Game 1 performance could not only push his team toward Omaha but also provide the defining moment of a season that has elevated him into first-round draft consideration.
Standout Stat
USC entered the postseason with one of the more modest offenses among the remaining high-major teams, averaging 6.8 runs per game in the lead-up to the tournament. Then the Trojans caught fire in the College Station Regional, scoring 59 runs in five games, an average of 11.8 per contest. Whether that surge proves sustainable remains to be seen, but it showcased an offensive ceiling that wasn’t always evident during the regular season and could provide the spark needed for another upset.
Why They Could Win
Edwards gives USC a legitimate advantage every time he takes the ball, but the Trojans are far more than a one-man pitching staff. Edwards anchors one of the nation’s best run-prevention units, a group that ranks third nationally in ERA and performed at a high level across virtually every meaningful pitching metric. That foundation has carried USC all season. If the offensive breakout the Trojans enjoyed in the College Station Regional is real, they suddenly become a much more dangerous team than their season-long offensive numbers suggest.
Why They Could Lose
The Tar Heels are one of the nation’s best run-prevention teams and have the arms to suppress the kind of offensive outburst USC enjoyed in College Station. If the Trojans’ lineup regresses toward its regular-season form, scoring enough runs to win the series could become difficult.
| Pos | Player | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | HR | RBI | |
| C | Isaac Cadena | .305 | .436 | .524 | 210 | 8 | 35 | |
| 1B | Adrian Lopez | .304 | .385 | .542 | 240 | 13 | 47 | |
| 2B | Abbrie Covarrubias | .282 | .388 | .396 | 202 | 3 | 30 | |
| 3B | Kevin Takeuchi | .309 | .415 | .528 | 233 | 9 | 59 | |
| SS | Dean Carpentier | .244 | .376 | .394 | 127 | 3 | 25 | |
| OF | Andrew Lamb | .284 | .382 | .580 | 169 | 12 | 42 | |
| OF | Walter Urbon | .406 | .435 | .641 | 64 | 3 | 17 | |
| OF | Jack Basseer | .341 | .441 | .629 | 170 | 10 | 41 | |
| DH | Augie Lopez | .279 | .367 | .605 | 215 | 19 | 57 | |
| Pos | Player | W | L | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | SO/9 |
| SP | Mason Edwards | 8 | 0 | 92.2 | 1.85 | 1.00 | 4.2 | 15.9 |
| SP | Grant Govel | 10 | 2 | 94.1 | 2.96 | 0.87 | 1.2 | 8.8 |
| SP | Diego Velazquez | 5 | 1 | 31.2 | 4.26 | 1.04 | 2.6 | 9.7 |
| RP | Sax Matson | 2 | 2 | 41.2 | 3.67 | 1.22 | 4.5 | 11.7 |
