Alabama Vs. St. John’s Predictions & Preview: 2026 NCAA Baseball Tournament Super Regional
Image credit: Justin Lebron (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
The 2026 NCAA baseball tournament super regional round is set to get underway on Friday, June 5.
To get ready, Baseball America presents our team-by-team previews, including winner predictions for all eight matchups. You can find all of our super regional previews here.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Key Player To Know
It hasn’t been the most consistent season for Justin Lebron, but few players remaining in the tournament can impact a game in more ways. The Alabama shortstop enters super regional play hitting .274/.382/.543 with 16 home runs, 12 doubles and 40 stolen bases. Lebron’s combination of power, speed and athleticism makes him a constant threat to change a game with a single swing or a stolen base. Dynamic runners tend to provide extra value in the postseason, and there may not be a more dangerous athlete left in the field.
One Key Stat
Dynamic runners tend to provide extra value in the postseason, and few players remaining can impact a game on the bases the way Lebron can. He’s been caught stealing just once in 41 attempts this season, giving the Crimson Tide a constant threat to turn singles into doubles and pressure defenses into mistakes. In an environment where runs often come at a premium, that kind of baserunning value can be a difference-maker.
Why They Could Win
Alabama has the pitching, depth and star talent to make a run when it’s playing its best baseball. The Crimson Tide have leaned on those strengths throughout the season, particularly on the mound, where they can match up well with most teams remaining in the field. The bracket has also broken favorably. Alabama is one of two hosts facing a lower-seeded opponent in the super regional round. If the Tide play to their ceiling, the path to Omaha is there.
Why They Could Lose
Alabama’s offense has been prone to cold stretches throughout the season. The Crimson Tide feature plenty of hitters capable of doing damage, but the lineup also comes with considerable swing-and-miss and lacks elite on-base ability. That creates a profile that can look dominant one weekend and frustratingly quiet the next. Alabama is the clear favorite in this matchup, but so was Florida State a week ago. The Tide have the talent to advance comfortably, but their path is not without risk.
| Pos | Player | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | HR | RBI | |
| C | Brady Neal | .332 | .444 | .575 | 193 | 10 | 49 | |
| 1B | Luke Vaughn | .213 | .364 | .452 | 155 | 9 | 30 | |
| 2B | Brennan Holt | .234 | .379 | .314 | 188 | 2 | 21 | |
| 3B | Jason Torres | .241 | .367 | .409 | 203 | 8 | 47 | |
| SS | Justin Lebron | .274 | .382 | .543 | 223 | 16 | 46 | |
| OF | Eric Hines | .289 | .341 | .554 | 121 | 9 | 24 | |
| OF | Bryce Fowler | .322 | .419 | .493 | 227 | 6 | 38 | |
| OF | Peyton Steele | .226 | .316 | .314 | 137 | 2 | 23 | |
| DH | John Lemm | .253 | .383 | .462 | 182 | 9 | 33 | |
| Pos | Player | W | L | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | SO/9 |
| SP | Tyler Fay | 10 | 4 | 95.2 | 4.70 | 1.09 | 2.0 | 10.5 |
| SP | Zane Adams | 7 | 4 | 82.1 | 4.04 | 1.35 | 3.0 | 9.8 |
| SP | Myles Upchurch | 8 | 3 | 70.2 | 3.57 | 1.27 | 5.1 | 9.8 |
| RP | Matthew Heiberger | 3 | 2 | 38.1 | 3.05 | 1.43 | 4.7 | 7.3 |
St. John’s Red Storm
Key Player To Know
Adam Agresti has emerged as one of the biggest reasons behind St. John’s surprising postseason run. The sophomore catcher is hitting .291/.431/.621 with 18 home runs, 14 doubles and 49 RBIs while pairing his power production with a disciplined approach that has yielded 43 walks against 37 strikeouts. Agresti impacts the game in multiple ways and has developed into one of the Red Storm’s most dangerous hitters. For a lineup that has exceeded expectations, few players are more important than its standout backstop.
Standout Stat
St. John’s authored one of the most remarkable regional performances in recent memory. The Red Storm became the first team since 2023 to win three regional games after trailing by multiple runs and the first four-seed to accomplish the feat. St. John’s fell behind by multiple runs in all three of its victories in the Tallahassee Regional and became just the fifth four-seed ever to sweep a regional. Few teams remaining have shown a greater ability to keep fighting when games appear to be slipping away.
Why They Could Win
St. John’s doesn’t rely on overpowering opponents on the mound, but it has consistently found ways to prevent runs. The Red Storm are led by righty Liam O’Brien, a high-80s workhorse who won’t generate many whiffs but does an excellent job forcing opponents to earn everything they get. That mentality extends throughout the staff. St. John’s throws strikes, competes and keeps games within reach. As the Tallahassee Regional proved, that’s often all this team needs. If the Johnnies can keep scores manageable, they’ll give themselves a chance to make another late push.
Why They Could Lose
Agresti gives St. John’s a legitimate power threat, but the offense is otherwise light on impact. The Red Storm don’t strike out much, which helps them stay competitive, but they also don’t draw many walks or generate consistent damage in the air. That can make it difficult to score in bunches, particularly against quality pitching. If St. John’s falls behind early or finds itself needing a quick offensive response, it may struggle to produce the kind of explosive innings that many of the remaining teams can create. That said, St. John’s produced plenty of timely offense during its remarkable regional run. Whether the Red Storm advance may come down to which version of their offense shows up: the one that repeatedly delivered in the clutch in Tallahassee or the one that spent much of the season struggling to generate explosive production.
| Pos | Player | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | HR | RBI | |
| C | Adam Agresti | .290 | .436 | .621 | 214 | 19 | 54 | |
| 1B | Shaun McMillan | .318 | .400 | .498 | 239 | 10 | 43 | |
| 2B | Ayden Frey | .231 | .338 | .282 | 195 | 0 | 19 | |
| 3B | Jayden Raifstanger | .336 | .427 | .439 | 244 | 3 | 49 | |
| SS | Rob Mansour | .251 | .347 | .276 | 203 | 0 | 26 | |
| OF | Cristian Bernardini | .283 | .326 | .425 | 127 | 4 | 21 | |
| OF | Jon Legrande | .329 | .421 | .476 | 231 | 6 | 45 | |
| OF | Dylan Fitzsimmons | .279 | .378 | .475 | 183 | 6 | 31 | |
| DH | Will Cowan | .215 | .318 | .400 | 130 | 5 | 33 | |
| Pos | Player | W | L | IP | ERA | WHIP | BB/9 | SO/9 |
| SP | Liam O’Leary | 8 | 4 | 105.1 | 3.25 | 1.17 | 2.4 | 6.3 |
| SP | Evan Chaffee | 7 | 4 | 81.2 | 4.96 | 1.47 | 3.5 | 9.2 |
| SP | Ian Mowad | 2 | 5 | 50.1 | 5.54 | 1.53 | 3.8 | 6.1 |
| RP | Jack Nestler | 2 | 0 | 45.1 | 3.57 | 1.30 | 3.8 | 7.0 |
