Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Outfielder Targets, Sleepers & Fades for 2025

Targets

Kerry Carpenter, OF, Tigers

Over three partial seasons in the major leagues spanning 868 plate appearances, Carpenter has a 136 wRC+ with 44 home runs—roughly 30 home runs for every 600 plate appearances—while slashing .276/.338/.512. Against only righthanded pitchers during that time, he has the 10th-best wRC+ for hitters with a minimum of 700 plate appearances, ahead of Rafael Devers, Mookie Betts, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna Jr. and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Heading into his age-27 season, Carpenter is set to deliver 25+ home runs per season in the middle of an improved Tigers lineup over the next few years. It’s a very similar fantasy profile to Anthony Santander but three years younger. [Dylan]

Colton Cowser, OF, Orioles

While the on-base numbers didn’t translate like we had hoped initially, he did provide strong counting stats and 24 home runs. As he heads into his age-25 season, I’m beting on Cowser taking another step forward in 2025. He has a well-rounded offensive skill set, and I believe we could see a bump in home runs, batting average and on-base percentage in 2025. Cowser has a long leash, had a good rookie season and has a few more years until he enters his prime. I believe Cowser could be one of the biggest returns on investment at the draft table. [Geoff]

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins

Now in Triple-A, Rodriguez is on the cusp of debuting in the major leagues in 2025. Rodriguez has been in the public prospect consciousness for so long, that it seems easy to forget that he’ll only just turn 22 in February. His extreme lack of chasing pitches out of the zone has been well documented—and will lead to high OBPs in the majors—but, although Rodriguez’s swing rate is one of the lowest marks in the minor leagues at only 31%, he actually swings at pitches in the heart of the strike zone at nearly a league average rate, implying that he may just not be getting anything to hit. And why would any pitcher throw strikes to someone who had a 110 mph 90th percentile exit velocity in 2024 and, as a 20-year-old in 2023, had a 108 mph? A solid center fielder now who will likely get pushed to a corner, Rodriguez has battled injuries the last few years, and his contact rate is below average, translating to near 30% strikeout rates in the major leagues. In an on-base percentage league though, he should consistently get on base at an above average clip, nearing .370 at peak. In batting average leagues, tread a little more carefully if you can’t stomach potential .230 to .240 batting averages. But in OBP leagues, invest with confidence. [Dylan]

Ian Happ, OF, Cubs

An underrated asset in dynasty, Happ isn’t valued by managers in a way that’s in line with his production. Happ has had 20+ home runs in three of the last four seasons and has produced double-digit steals the last two years. He also has produced counting stats in bunches, as he’s had 80+ RBIs and 80+ runs in back to back seasons. Happ is heading into his age-30 season and still has a few years left of his peak. [Geoff]

Sleepers

Heliot Ramos, OF, Giants

Since 2022, Ramos has accrued exactly 600 plate appearances in the major leagues and has a .254/.308/.439 line with 23 home runs and six stolen bases. Heading into his age-25 season, he should take another step forward, not just because of natural age curve development, but also because he showed a 90th percentile xSLG, barrel rate, and bat speed. With the expected return of Jung-Hoo Lee, Ramos will likely move to a corner outfield spot, which is a more natural fit for him. Although Oracle Park does suppress hitting, Ramos should be a .250/.320 hitter with 25 to 28 home runs and a handful of stolen bases. [Dylan]

Braden Montgomery, OF, Red Sox

One of the key pieces of the Garrett Crochet return for the White Sox, Montgomery’s ETA may have jumped a year due to his new organization. The Red Sox were stocked with talented outfielders and the White Sox are not. Montgomery is a switch-hitting power hitter with solid plate skills and the ability to play an above-average right field. He fits the right field prototype to a tee and was one of the better hitters in a strong positional college class. Already a target of mine in offseason FYPD drafts, Montgomery may have moved up my board with the trade. [Geoff]

Chandler Simpson, OF, Rays

Simpson is a player of extremes. He stole over 100 bases in the minors in 2024 but has hit just one professional home run in his career—and it was an inside-the-park job. He has one of the highest contact rates of any qualified hitter in the minors while also chasing at a below-average rate. Although his routes could be improved, his make-up speed has resulted in him being a near fringe-average defender, capable of sticking in center field. It goes without saying that a player capable of hitting .300 in the major leagues with no home runs but 75+ stolen bases is a unicorn. If he’s given the full-season reins to accomplish that, we’re looking at a potential $12 fantasy outfielder in 2025–with the potential of Juan Pierre-type seasons as he enters his peak. He’s not currently viewed as a top 100 fantasy prospect, but because he has that type of ceiling, he definitely qualifies as a potential sleeper. [Dylan]

Matt Wallner, OF, Twins

Perhaps I burn myself for a second consecutive first half with Wallner. But the intrigue of a strong second half in consecutive seasons has me coming back for more. Wallner has outlier power and good on-base skills. He is the very definition of a “three true outcome” player, and is in many ways the heir to Joey Gallo for OBP players chasing power and walks. Wallner is likely less attractive in a traditional 5×5 roto scoring setup, but his outlier power is worth a gamble as he heads into his prime. [Geoff]

Fades

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs

It was a very solid second half for Crow-Armstrong as he started to show something at the plate. While I buy into the skills long term, over the next few seasons, I view him as a fringe asset. He’ll certainly provide some stolen bases, but there’s no true 25+ home run upside, outlier bat-to-ball or on-base ability to cling to. It’s always a risky bet to gamble against young major leaguers with a long leash due to strong defensive capabilities, but I’m not buying. [Geoff]

Nick Castellanos, OF, Phillies

For the second straight year, Castellanos hit 23 or more home runs with 166 or more runs plus RBIs for a first division team. The bad news is that, heading into his age-33 season, he has had three straight seasons—and essentially full seasons at that—never having accrued more than 1.5 fWAR in any one campaign.  HE’s one of the worst defenders in the league and, if not for Kyle Schwarber, the Phillies would have moved him to DH years ago. It’s not going out on a limb to identify a hitter entering his mid 30s who is a near-replacement level player in real life as someone to be avoided in dynas–and it’s a drive to deep left field…. [Dylan]