Justin Dunn

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked Seattle Mariners #8 prospect in 2020
  TRACK RECORD: Dunn mostly pitched in relief at Boston College but turned himself into a first-round pick with a successful move to the rotation as a junior. The Mets drafted him 19th overall in 2016, and the Mariners acquired him in the Dec. 2018 trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to New York. Dunn's first year in the Mariners' system went splendidly at Double-A Arkansas. He led the Texas League in strikeouts, made the Futures Game and earned his first major league callup in September.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dunn's fastball sits 90-94 mph and averages 92, but it gets on hitters quick from his easy, effortless delivery. His separator is a plus low-80s slider he can land in the strike zone or bury for chases. It drew swings and misses nearly 40 percent of the time he threw it in the majors and gives him an out pitch. Dunn has the makings of an average changeup, though it is presently too firm in the upper 80s, and he also has a get-me-over curveball he'll occasionally throw. Dunn noticeably gained bad weight in 2019 and struggled to throw strikes in the majors, so he spent the fall improving his conditioning.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunn will get another shot in Seattle in 2020. Most see his future as a two-pitch late reliever.
• 
  Ranked Seattle Mariners #6 prospect in 2019
  Track Record: Dunn spent most of his time in college in the bullpen, and then scuffled in his full-season debut in the high Class A Florida State League. But after he made 24 starts while taming the FSL and reaching Double-A in 2018, his future appears firmly planted in the rotation. Based on that development, the Mariners acquired Dunn in December as one of the top prospects in the deal that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets.
  
  Scouting Report: Dunn evolved from thrower to pitcher in 2018 by working his fastball to both sides of the plate and up and down in the zone at 93-95 mph from an effortless delivery. He can sink his fastball for early-count groundball outs or throw it with riding life up in the zone for swinging strikes. Dunn's slider is his go-to secondary weapon, and it flashes plus with two-plane break to neutralize righthanded hitters. He committed to throwing his changeup in 2018 and made huge strides. The mid-80s pitch fades to his arm side and bottoms out as it approaches the plate, erasing the ugly platoon split he had in 2017. His athletic motion allows him to throw first-pitch strikes and grants him access to future average control.
  
  The Future: Dunn is positioned to assume any role the Mariners need in the second half of 2019, be it multi-inning reliever or spot starter. Long term he has the profile of a No. 3 or 4 starter.
• 
  Ranked New York Mets #3 prospect in 2018
  Dunn worked primarily as a reliever at Boston College until moving to the rotation two months before the 2016 draft. He pitched well enough in eight starts to generate first-round attention, and the Mets selected him 19th overall. He shined at short-season Brooklyn in his debut but struggled with the jump to high Class A St. Lucie in 2017, where he ran up a 5.00 ERA. As a starter with an athletic delivery, quick, loose arm and pitchability, Dunn could be in line for better days ahead. He flashes a plus fastball and slider, his primary weapons in college, but below-average control and command hampered his effectiveness. At his best, he ranges from 92-96 mph with above-average life on his fastball and breaks off a mid-80s slider with late three-quarters tilt. He even shows surprising command of a changeup given his bullpen background, but just as a platoon split plagued him in college, Dunn needs to find a way to retire lefthanded batters after they hit .345/.464/.462 against him in the Florida State League. If he improves his fastball command, changeup and stamina, Dunn could profile as a No. 3 or 4 starter. If he doesn't, he should have no trouble reaching the big leagues as a high-leverage reliever. A key development year in which he should reach Double-A awaits.
• 
  Ranked New York Mets #3 prospect in 2017
  Dunn worked primarily as a reliever at Boston College--and in the 2015 Cape Cod League--and remained in that role until two months before the 2016 draft. Though he made just eight starts as a junior, he generated first-round buzz based on his impressive arm speed and athletic delivery. The Mets selected Dunn, a Long Island native, 19th overall and signed him for slot value of $2,378,800. No first-round college righthander has moved from the bullpen to the rotation in the midst of his draft-eligible season in recent draft history. Dunn, however, showed the arsenal and results to warrant first-round selection. He already has the best fastball and slider in the Mets system, using his primary weapons to strike out 10.5 per nine innings in his pro debut at short-season Brooklyn. He generates mid-90s velocity and good life on his fastball--which touched 98 mph--with a loose arm and fluid motion. His mid-80s slider already grades as above-average and should mature into a plus pitch with tight spin and late vertical break. He will need to develop his below-average curveball and changeup to give lefthanders different looks. Though Dunn is athletic, he has a lean frame and is not as physical as many starters. With two projected plus pitches, Dunn could be a No. 2 or 3 starter, though some scouts project him to the bullpen. He should spend time at both Class A levels in 2017.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #22 prospect in 2016 draft
  In 2015, Chris Shaw became the fifth first-rounder drafted out of Boston College. This year, Dunn could be the sixth. The athletic righthander began the season pitching out of the bullpen, but his lightning quick arm and promising offspeed pitches forced him into the Eagles' rotation. Dunn is slight in stature, with some scouts questioning his listed 6-foot-2, 184-pound frame. While he is short physically, his stuff isn’t. He pitches consistently at 92-95 and touching as high as 97 at times with his fastball. His best secondary pitch is his slider, thrown with tight spin, vertical shape and mid-80s velocity. He throws a curveball that has similar shape to his slider, but breaks more loosely and grades out as a below-average pitch, though its presence can disrupt hitters' timing. Dunn has shown feel for a changeup at times, showing the ability to locate the pitch at hitters' knees. His performance as a starter has encouraged teams that he can start long term, as he has held velocity well deep into his outings.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked Texas League #8 prospect in 2019
  Acquired in the trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets, Dunn impressed in his first season in the Mariners’ organization. He led the Texas League in strikeouts (158) and WHIP (1.19) and made his major league debut on Sept. 12. Dunn starts with a 92-94 mph fastball he can throw up in the zone for whiffs or down in the zone to induce ground balls. His fastball plays up off his plus slider, which draws swings and misses both in and out of the zone. "The ball spins out his hand really well, and then he can get you with that fastball up in the zone that’s hard to lay off,” one Texas League manager said. "He’s always attacking.” Dunn improved his changeup but is still vulnerable to lefties (.277 opponent average). His control improved to average to give him a better chance to stick as a starter.
• 
  Ranked Eastern League #12 prospect in 2018
  After a subpar season in the Florida State League, 2018 was Dunn’s coming-out party. The righthander, who converted from reliever to starter during his senior season at Boston College, dominated in a short return to St. Lucie before earning a bump to the EL. There, he showed evaluators much-improved stuff to match the statistical uptick. His fastball, which sat in the 93-95 range, featured plenty of life and he showed an ability to throw the pitch for strikes early in the count. He backed it up with mid-80s changeup that he kept low in the zone as well as a slider with improved consistency to its break. He needs to continue refining the pitch, however, to avoid it getting flat and hittable. With further development, he has the upside of a mid-rotation starter.
• 
  Ranked New York-Penn League #3 prospect in 2016
  Dunn was at the center of Boston College's super-regional run this spring, pitching the Eagles to their best season through his work in the bullpen and later in the weekend rotation. It was the midseason shift from closer to starter that elevated his draft stock to the first round, where the Mets plucked the Long Island native with the 19th overall pick. Though a closer for most of his college career, Dunn has a starter's arsenal, throwing a slider, curveball and changeup to complement his mid-90s fastball that touches 98 mph. Scouts agree his slider is the better of his two breaking balls, though there's disagreement on whether it's a future plus or average offering. Limited to just three innings per outing with Brooklyn, Dunn threw his changeup sparingly. It's firm but could develop into a serviceable pitch. Athletic with a quick arm, Dunn has No. 2 or 3 starter upside, though some evaluators suggest he might ultimately end up back in the bullpen. "He's everything you look for when you're drafting a young pitcher," said Brooklyn manager Tom Gamboa, who scouted for 10 years. ""He's got a very good delivery. He's got a very, very loose arm. Now managing him for a season, as good as he is talent-wise, his personality and makeup is even better. He's just a real outstanding kid and the way you want your son to grow up.""

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #100 prospect in 2017

• July, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Dunn mostly pitched in relief at Boston College but turned himself into a first-round pick with a successful move to the rotation as a junior. The Mets drafted him 19th overall in 2016, and the Mariners acquired him in the Dec. 2018 trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to New York. Dunn’s first year in the Mariners’ system went splendidly at Double-A Arkansas. He led the Texas League in strikeouts, made the Futures Game and earned his first major league callup in September.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dunn’s fastball sits 90-94 mph and averages 92, but it gets on hitters quick from his easy, effortless delivery. His separator is a plus low-80s slider he can land in the strike zone or bury for chases. It drew swings and misses nearly 40 percent of the time he threw it in the majors and gives him an out pitch. Dunn has the makings of an average changeup, though it is presently too firm in the upper 80s, and he also has a get-me-over curveball he’ll occasionally throw. Dunn noticeably gained bad weight in 2019 and struggled to throw strikes in the majors, so he spent the fall improving his conditioning.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunn will get another shot in Seattle in 2020. Most see his future as a two-pitch late reliever.
• February, 2020 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Dunn mostly pitched in relief at Boston College but turned himself into a first-round pick with a successful move to the rotation as a junior. The Mets drafted him 19th overall in 2016, and the Mariners acquired him in the Dec. 2018 trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to New York. Dunn's first year in the Mariners' system went splendidly at Double-A Arkansas. He led the Texas League in strikeouts, made the Futures Game and earned his first major league callup in September.
  
  SCOUTING REPORT: Dunn's fastball sits 90-94 mph and averages 92, but it gets on hitters quick from his easy, effortless delivery. His separator is a plus low-80s slider he can land in the strike zone or bury for chases. It drew swings and misses nearly 40 percent of the time he threw it in the majors and gives him an out pitch. Dunn has the makings of an average changeup, though it is presently too firm in the upper 80s, and he also has a get-me-over curveball he'll occasionally throw. Dunn noticeably gained bad weight in 2019 and struggled to throw strikes in the majors, so he spent the fall improving his conditioning.
  
  THE FUTURE: Dunn will get another shot in Seattle in 2020. Most see his future as a two-pitch late reliever.
• December, 2018 Scouting Report
  Acquired in the trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the Mets, Dunn impressed in his first season in the Mariners’ organization. He led the Texas League in strikeouts (158) and WHIP (1.19) and made his major league debut on Sept. 12. Dunn starts with a 92-94 mph fastball he can throw up in the zone for whiffs or down in the zone to induce ground balls. His fastball plays up off his plus slider, which draws swings and misses both in and out of the zone. "The ball spins out his hand really well, and then he can get you with that fastball up in the zone that’s hard to lay off,” one Texas League manager said. "He’s always attacking.” Dunn improved his changeup but is still vulnerable to lefties (.277 opponent average). His control improved to average to give him a better chance to stick as a starter.
• July, 2018 Scouting Report
  The 19th overall pick in 2016, Dunn ran up a 5.00 ERA in the Florida State League a year ago, but the lightning-armed, athletic righty had improved dramatically this season. Dunn shows feel for three pitches and throws from an effortless delivery, making his 93-94 mph fastball and hard-breaking slider play up. Improved fastball command and manipulation as well as enhanced feel for his changeup have made him tougher on lefthanders and more effective overall.
• December, 2017 Scouting Report
  TRACK RECORD: Dunn worked primarily as a reliever at Boston College until moving to the rotation two months before the 2016 draft. He pitched well enough in eight starts for the Mets to select him 19th overall. He shined at short-season Brooklyn in his debut but struggled with the jump to high Class A St. Lucie in 2017, where he ran up a 5.00 ERA. SCOUTING REPORT: As a starter with an athletic delivery, quick, loose arm and pitchability, Dunn could be in line for better days ahead. He flashes a plus fastball and slider, his primary weapons in college, but below-average control and command hampered his effectiveness. At his best, he ranges from 92-96 mph with above-average life on his fastball and breaks off a mid-80s slider with late three-quarters tilt. He even shows surprising command of a changeup given his bullpen background, but just as a platoon split plagued him in college, Dunn needs to find a way to retire lefthanded batters after they hit .345/.464/.462 against him in the Florida State League. THE FUTURE: If he improves his fastball command, changeup and stamina, Dunn could profile as a No. 3 or 4 starter. If he doesn't, he should have no trouble reaching the big leagues as a high-leverage reliever. A key development year in which he should reach Double-A awaits.
• December, 2016 Scouting Report
  Background: Dunn worked primarily as a reliever at Boston College--and in the 2015 Cape Cod League--and remained in that role until two months before the 2016 draft. Though he made just eight starts as a junior, he generated first-round buzz based on his impressive arm speed and athletic delivery. The Mets selected Dunn, a Long Island native, 19th overall and signed him for slot value of $2,378,800. Scouting Report: No first-round college righthander has moved from the bullpen to rotation in the midst of his draft-eligible season in recent draft history. Dunn, however, showed the arsenal and results to warrant first-round selection. He already has the best fastball and slider in the Mets system, using his primary weapons to strike out 10.5 per nine innings in his pro debut at short-season Brooklyn. He generates mid-90s velocity and good life on his fastball--which touched 98 mph--with a loose arm and fluid motion. His mid-80s slider already grades as above-average and should mature into a plus pitch with tight spin and late vertical break. He will need to develop his below-average curveball and changeup to give lefthanders different looks. Though Dunn is athletic, he has a lean frame and is not as physical as many starting pitchers.
  
  The Future: With two projected plus pitches, Dunn could be a No. 2 or 3 starter, though some scouts project him to the bullpen. He should spend time at both Class A levels in 2017.