Pontes: Paul Skenes’ Evolution Is A Story Of Growth
Image credit: Paul Skenes (Photo by George Kubas/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
The first time I watched Paul Skenes in person is etched into my memory.
It was Cape Cod League opening day in 2021. The previous season was canceled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. After 22 months of no Cape Cod League play, baseball was back for the most prestigious summer league in the country.
The usual pregame chatter and discussion about players pulsed through the scouting section. Current Baseball America writer Peter Flaherty — then the scouting liaison for Cotuit — was always a reliable source of information, and he tipped me off to a 6-foot-6 legit two-way freshman prospect who both catches and pitches.
I scrolled down the Wareham roster to find Paul Skenes, Air Force.
Skenes was starting to move onto the national radar, even then. He was just days away from USA College National team trials. But he wasn’t yet Paul Skenes. And he didn’t pitch that day. But three nights later, Skenes came on in the ninth inning and touched 97 mph. The scouting section behind home plate left Spillane Field buzzing.
Skenes returned to the Cape later that summer from team trials and I saw him again at Lowell Park. He sat 90-93 mph that day, mixing an 84-87 mph slider and a mid-80s changeup.
At the time, Skenes was an interesting two-way player with projectable traits. Of course, over the next three years, he transformed into one of baseball’s most recognizable faces and the top pitching prospect in baseball. Yet I find myself revisiting that summer in 2021 as I think about how Skenes has developed as a prospect. Even then, he showed signs of a player always finding areas to expand on his game.
Skenes returned to Air Force for his sophomore season, where he threw 85.2 innings pitching to a 2.73 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. That season, his fastball sat 94-95 mph touching 98 mph with 14 inches of induced vertical break and 12 inches of horizontal break from a six-foot release. His slider was a classic gyro slider at 84-85 mph, and a changeup at 87-89 mph with three inches of induced vertical break and 16 inches of armside run. It should be noted that Air Force plays at elevation, which can often have a negative effect on pitch movement. Regardless of the challenges, Skenes proved he was one of the best underclass starters in the country while pitching in a difficult environment.
| Player | School | Pitch type | Velocity | Spin | IVB | HB | Release |
| Paul Skenes | Air Force | FF | 94.6 | 2252 | 14.3 | 12.9 | 72.6 |
| Paul Skenes | Air Force | SL | 84.5 | 2300.8 | -0.8 | 0.6 | 70.6 |
| Paul Skenes | Air Force | CHG | 88.2 | 1892.7 | 3.9 | 16.3 | 69.7 |
The following summer, Skenes headed to USA National Team trials and entered the transfer portal. He committed to LSU, joining the most talented team in the country and a former MLB pitching coach in Wes Johnson.
The 2023 season was Skenes coming out party on a national level. Over 19 starts, Skenes went 122.2 innings pitching to a 1.69 ERA, .75 WHIP, 15.3 K/9 and a 1.5 BB/9, while handling the SEC in a way few before have during an offensive explosion in college baseball.
Skenes pitch mix continued to progress, as he averaged 97-98 mph on his fastball, generating 15 inches of induced vertical break and 17 inches of horizontal break from a six-foot release. His slider developed from a gyro slider in the mid-80s to a disgusting mid-80s sweeper with 11 to 12 inches of sweep, his changeup with similar shape to his 2022 offspeed and a cutter in the low-90s.
The evolution of Skenes slider was clear to see as it was a completely different pitch from his 2022 slider. The added sweep and ride at a similar velocity band to his previous gyro slider proved to be too much for collegiate competition to handle.
The value of Skenes changes showed up in the results year over year. In 2022, batters hit .246/.296/.323 against Skenes gyro slider with a 34% whiff rate on a 43% swing rate. While in 2023, batters hit .075/.098/.125 with a 62% miss rate on a 40% swing rate against the sweeper variation.
The improvements weren’t just isolated to the slider as the added power and armside run on Skenes fastball also resulted in improved results. Skenes whiff rate year over year against his fastball jumped from 26% in 2022 to 30% in 2023. Despite moving from a mid-major to the toughest conference in college baseball, batters hit .204/.255/.298 against his fastball in 2023, which was not far off from the 2022 slashline against the fastball of .175/.262/.241.
| Player | School | Pitch Type | Velocity | Spin | IVB | HB | Release |
| Paul Skenes | Louisiana State | FB | 97.7 | 2479 | 15.3 | 17.1 | 72.5 |
| Paul Skenes | Louisiana State | SL | 85.4 | 2603 | 5.1 | -11.4 | 69.3 |
| Paul Skenes | Louisiana State | CHG | 89.7 | 1923 | 8.5 | 17 | 69.9 |
Despite Skenes tremendous success, there were questions leading up to the draft about his fastball shape due to his lack of ride or run from a fairly generic release.
Skenes would go onto to be the top pick in the 2023 draft, signing for $9.2 million. Skenes would debut following the draft pitching a total of 6.2 innings across five starts jumping three levels. Questions lingered post-draft around what the Pirates planned on doing to fix Skenes pedestrian fastball shape.
This spring, Skenes showed up to camp with plenty of buzz as he showed a deeper arsenal of pitches. In addition to his signature four-seam fastball, slider and changeup, Skenes was throwing a sinker-splitter hybrid. Skenes was now throwing five different pitch shapes and showing pitches that moved up, down, armside and gloveside.
| Player | ORG | Pitch Type | Velocity | Spin | IVB | HB | Release |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | Four-Seam | 99.9 | 2359 | 13.2 | 14.4 | 69.2 |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | Slider | 85.6 | 2478 | 5.5 | -9.3 | 67.6 |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | Splinker | 94.7 | 1783 | 0.2 | 14.9 | 68.2 |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | Cutter | 87.5 | 2392 | 8.1 | -2.4 | 67.6 |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | Changeup | 87.8 | 2037 | 4 | 18.2 | 67.5 |
The evolution of Skenes pitch mix over three seasons was clear to see. Skenes added velocity over his three seasons as a collegiate player. He developed a new slider at LSU under the tutelage of Johnson. Then, he unleashed a truly unique pitch in pro ball whose only peer is Johan Duran of the Twins splinker.
The progression of Paul Skenes is a story of growth season by season, building up to his ultimate goal. Skenes made adjustments to avoid having to rely on his fastball and slider combination. Skenes took the focus away from his fastball’s dead-zone shape and varied the look of his pitch mix, making it harder to sit on his fastball and slider.
