Why Is Coleman Crow A ‘Fascinating Target?’ Breaking Down The Mets-Brewers Trade

Image credit: (Photo by Brian Westerholt/Four Seam Images)

New Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns made his first move with his old team, acquiring righthanded pitcher Adrian Houser and outfielder Tyrone Taylor from the Brewers in exchange for minor league righthander Coleman Crow on Wednesday afternoon.

The deal brings the Mets some needed depth both in the rotation and in the outfield. Houser, 30, went 8-5 with a 4.12 ERA in 111.1 innings last year. He provided the Brewers slightly above-average production through his seven-year career in Milwaukee and is another back-end starting option for the Mets as they replenish their rotation.

Taylor, 29, hit .234/.267/.446 with 10 homers in 231 at-bats in 2023 – a step back on the surface from his 2022 season, where he hit 17 homers and accounted for 2.1 fWAR in 120 games for Milwaukee. His expected batted ball data was fairly comparable to 2022, although Taylor pulled the ball more frequently this past season. He brings a useful combination of power, speed and defensive ability. He could end up forming a platoon with D.J. Stewart in left field for the Mets in lieu of further upgrades. 

It will take some time before they see him on the mound, but Crow is an intriguing arm for Milwaukee’s pitching development program. The 22-year-old righty never actually pitched for the Mets. He had Tommy John surgery shortly after New York acquired him at the deadline from the Angels in exchange for Eduardo Escobar. Crow ranked No. 21 in the Angels system entering 2023. 

More on him below. 

COLEMAN CROW SCOUTING REPORT

Crow was a 28th-round pick in 2019 by the Angels but signed for $317,500, which was the equivalent of fifth-round money, and made his debut two years later in 2021 after the coronavirus shutdown. He has performed well when healthy. Crow struck out 128 batters, averaging a strikeout per inning, and posted a 4.85 ERA with Double-A Rocket City in 2022. He returned to the level to open the 2023 season and raced out to a hot start, striking out 31 batters to just six walks over 24 innings until elbow inflammation sent him to the injured list on May 12.

Still, analytically-inclined teams liked Crow because of his outlier breaking ball and interesting fastball traits.

RoboScout, a tool devised by Baseball America’s Dylan White, tabbed him as an underrated pitcher in the upper levels of the minors at the conclusion of the 2023 season, noting Crow was among the top performers across all of Double-A in a small sample even despite the pre-tacked Southern League baseball. 

Here’s what White wrote at the time:

“I first mentioned in early May how his curveball has some of the highest horizontal sweep and spin rate of any curve in baseball. In fact, it has the most glove-side run of any curveball in the upper levels, including the majors. He doesn’t stop there. His four seam fastball — in large part due to his low release slot — has an extremely flat vertical approach angle (VAA) leading to whiffs, especially up in the zone. He also throws a high-spin slider with 10 inches of horizontal sweep that elicits above-average chases and weak contact. With a curveball bordering on double plus, an above-average four-seamer and a solid slider, Crow has mid-rotation potential assuming he can make a full recovery and rebuild his stamina. He’s one of RoboScout’s most fascinating targets to watch.“

Crow’s low-90s fastball had over 19 inches of induced vertical break in 2023 and has been up to 95 mph in the past. Opposing hitters didn’t do much damage against it in a limited sample in 2023 despite swinging at it nearly 60% of the time. The mid-70s curveball, as White pointed out, is a vicious breaker. Crow began throwing it more in 2023 after previously employing a harder slider in the low 80s. One caveat, however, is Crow’s increased movement came with the Southern League using the pre-tacked baseball that caused spin rates around the league to skyrocket. He suffered his elbow injury before the league moved back to the regular ball, leaving unanswered questions about how much his sharp increase in the movement on his pitches was simply a product of the pre-tacked ball.

Crow is undersized at 6-feet, 175 pounds, showed fringy control and command in the past and now has a major arm injury on his ledger in addition to some durability concerns. It’s unclear whether he’ll even return in time to pitch in 2024. But the Brewers have a good track record with pitchers and his loud two-pitch mix, competitiveness and improving ability to throw strikes makes for a very interesting project.