RoboScout FAAB Targets For May 7, 2023

Image credit: Jackson Holliday (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

I hope you all had a Happy Star Wars day and Cinco de (Coby) Mayo as we like to call it over here. We’re motoring along in the minor leagues and seeing some of the top-ranked prospects solidify their positions in the tiers, where the week-to-week volatility is not extreme enough to drastically change our evaluations of their “true talents” (based on their statistical production).

A key note this week is that there was a slight revision to the calculations and analysis, as Matt Eddy’s must-read park factors article came out—which also included the influence of the pre-tacked ball in the Southern League from Kyle Glaser’s article. After I applied the adjustments, surprisingly, there weren’t any real significant changes to the rankings or scores (a few rankings up and down here and there), most likely because park factors and run environment were already being applied (from last year’s numbers).

Still, we are starting to get to the point where we should be gaining confidence in using these performances this year to help inform our prospect rankings. Of course, one month’s worth of data in the context of a player’s body of work (and scouting report) needs to be appropriately weighted—but still, in dynasty leagues, the ROI of taking some waiver wire shots on these names—even this early—is significant enough to be well worth the FAAB cost..

As usual, I’ll start at Low-A and work my way up to Triple-A. Rankings through Friday’s (May 5, 2023) games.

Low-A:

Top Hitters per RoboScout (min 40 plate appearances):
1. Jackson Holliday (BAL No. 3 prospect)
2. Ryan Clifford (HOU No. 20 prospect)
3. Cole Young (SEA No. 2 prospect)
4 . Moises Ballesteros (CHC No. 16 prospect)
5. Creed Willems (BAL unranked)
6. Samuel Basallo (BAL No. 15 prospect)
7. Nelson Rada (LAA No. 9 prospect)
8. Maick Collado (CLE unranked)
9. Leonardo Bernal (STL No. 12 prospect)
10. Carlos Jorge (CIN No. 17 prospect)

A lot of these names are familiar from previous weeks’ articles and podcasts, but there is a new conspicuous name: Ballesteros, who appears on the heels of a .529/.619/.824 week with two home runs over 21 plate appearances. Last year, the Cubs’ catcher was RoboScout’s 16th-highest ranked hitter at the Arizona Complex League—and, coupled with his excellent Statcast data (plus exit velocities, barrel rates and better-than-average contact and chase rates for the level)—was a consideration as a preseason breakout. The main concern with Ballesteros is that, despite a strong arm, Ballesteros will be hard pressed to stay behind the plate on account of his heavy-set lower half (which, as a 1B/DH type leaves his future overly-reliant on the bat with very little margin for error in his development journey). But for now, the bat is still as advertised: his swing decisions continue to be excellent, while both his contact rate and 90th percentile exit velocity are over a standard deviation higher-than-average for Low-A; i.e. 60 hit, 60 power, all while being one of the youngest hitters at the level.

Top Pitchers per RoboScout (min 10 innings pitched):
1. David Sandlin (KCR unranked)
2. Steven Zobac (KCR No. 29 prospect)
3. Samuel Aldegheri (PHI unranked)
4. Wen Hui Pan (PHI unranked)
5. Blake Adams (COL unranked)
6. Frank Mozzicato (KCR No. 5 prospect)
7. Alexander Vallecillo (MIL unranked)
8. Rafael Sanchez (TOR unranked)
9. Robby Snelling (SDP No.5 prospect)
10. Cedric De Grandpre (ATL unranked)

Sandlin was the helium name in the most recent Prospect Hot Sheet and in Geoff Pontes’ top 10 underrated pitching prospects article, so no more digital ink needs to be spilled on him.

An interesting name is Hui Pan, who caught scouts’ eyes in spring training this year. And why wouldn’t he? He throws an upper-90s fastball (touching 101 mph) that just chews up Low-A hitters, so much so that he uses it nearly 75% of the time. As with many Asian pitchers—Pan was signed out of Taiwan five months ago—he also throws a tumbling splitter (that is almost 20 mph slower than the fastball). If he wants to be more than a high leverage reliever, his slider will have to emerge as a useful pitch. Right now it’s low-to-mid 80s but with little movement currently.

Low-A Hitters
Min 40 PA Peak Projection 600PA
Name Team Age PA BB% K% xBA xOBP wRC+ HR SB Robo
Jackson Holliday BAL 19 65 13% 17% .253 .333 98 19 8 100
Ryan Clifford HOU 19 111 13% 17% .252 .334 97 16 6 99
Cole Young SEA 19 115 11% 14% .258 .329 96 10 14 98
Moises Ballesteros CHC 19 88 11% 12% .260 .332 94 26 3 94
Creed Willems BAL 20 78 9% 20% .243 .311 92 31 4 90
Samuel Basallo BAL 18 84 7% 18% .248 .307 93 24 3 88
Nelson Rada LAA 17 110 11% 16% .249 .321 90 15 13 87
Maick Collado CLE 20 98 13% 12% .256 .331 87 12 11 87
Leonardo Bernal STL 19 72 8% 11% .258 .317 89 21 4 85
Carlos Jorge CIN 19 84 9% 20% .237 .303 87 18 11 82
Nate Furman CLE 21 110 13% 14% .246 .321 80 7 22 81
Gabriel Gonzalez SEA 19 82 7% 11% .258 .314 89 15 5 81
Jared Serna NYY 21 86 9% 11% .255 .320 84 14 14 81
Rosman Verdugo SDP 18 90 10% 22% .235 .306 87 13 8 79
Daniel Guilarte MIL 19 102 10% 19% .237 .307 81 10 23 79
Cam Collier CIN 18 69 11% 19% .239 .312 87 21 6 79
Daylen Lile WSN 20 84 9% 18% .241 .307 84 19 11 78
Samuel Zavala SDP 18 95 10% 21% .236 .308 86 20 5 77
Luke Adams MIL 19 83 13% 20% .234 .311 80 21 12 77
Leonardo Balcazar CIN 19 82 11% 23% .233 .306 87 15 5 77
Enmanuel Terrero PIT 20 98 10% 17% .242 .309 83 14 13 77
Jett Williams NYM 19 91 12% 20% .234 .310 81 14 12 76
Rayne Doncon LAD 19 109 9% 21% .233 .301 82 23 4 74
Anthony Gutierrez TEX 18 84 7% 17% .242 .301 83 17 14 74
Diego Velasquez SFG 19 100 8% 18% .240 .302 84 14 6 73
Justin Crawford PHI 19 78 8% 18% .237 .298 80 11 22 72
Daniel Vazquez KCR 19 95 8% 18% .237 .297 78 14 18 72
Graham Pauley SDP 22 98 9% 14% .246 .310 81 13 8 71
Sal Stewart CIN 19 82 13% 14% .247 .322 81 15 3 71
Xavier Isaac TBR 19 88 14% 16% .241 .320 80 15 3 71
Emaarion Boyd PHI 19 73 9% 18% .233 .296 74 11 33 71
Cutter Coffey BOS 19 79 14% 18% .236 .316 78 11 9 71
Brady House WSN 20 72 10% 21% .232 .302 82 20 4 71
Luis Ravelo BOS 19 85 9% 18% .237 .304 81 19 5 70
Won-Bin Cho STL 19 78 9% 18% .235 .301 77 21 15 69
Jacob Reimer NYM 19 98 11% 15% .242 .311 80 14 5 69
Shalin Polanco PIT 19 72 11% 27% .219 .295 82 20 6 69
Jesus Castillo PIT 19 106 13% 15% .243 .320 79 10 4 69
Michael Curialle STL 22 102 10% 24% .228 .300 83 10 6 68
Thayron Liranzo LAD 19 84 11% 29% .216 .292 83 23 2 68
Onil Perez SFG 20 52 8% 14% .244 .305 78 14 7 68
Hector Rodriguez CIN 19 79 7% 19% .235 .295 80 29 4 67
Yeison Morrobel TEX 19 66 13% 18% .234 .310 75 12 17 67
Chris Newell LAD 22 95 10% 25% .222 .292 78 23 10 67
Jorge Ruiz LAA 19 110 7% 17% .240 .298 80 10 7 65
Alexander Mojica PIT 20 75 12% 21% .229 .305 79 15 2 65
Roman Anthony BOS 19 85 13% 18% .232 .308 75 11 12 65
Angel Del Rosario TOR 20 41 7% 26% .218 .280 76 19 20 65
Stiven Acevedo BAL 20 91 7% 21% .228 .287 77 19 10 64
Ricardo Rosario PHI 20 50 10% 17% .235 .301 74 11 15 63
Danny De Andrade MIN 19 95 10% 25% .222 .294 78 11 3 63
Miguel Bleis BOS 19 101 7% 24% .221 .282 76 14 14 63
Cristian Hernandez CHC 19 78 7% 28% .216 .279 80 19 5 63
Andy Perez COL 19 105 6% 12% .247 .300 77 10 4 63
Lizandro Rodriguez KCR 20 88 8% 21% .228 .291 76 18 7 62
Jose Devers CLE 20 88 8% 19% .229 .291 71 15 20 62
Juan Chacon BOS 20 84 12% 21% .225 .300 73 9 18 62
Elijah Green WSN 19 94 9% 36% .197 .270 77 17 15 61
Lexer Saduy CLE 20 88 11% 21% .226 .299 74 12 12 61
Brayan Buelvas OAK 21 105 9% 25% .217 .285 74 14 13 60
Ahbram Liendo BOS 19 79 13% 23% .220 .297 72 11 15 60
JoJo Blackmon TEX 20 70 11% 31% .206 .283 76 17 12 60
Gabriel Rincones Jr. PHI 22 102 9% 27% .211 .280 71 18 23 60
Christian Cerda ARI 20 88 12% 24% .222 .297 75 12 2 60
Denzer Guzman LAA 19 103 9% 27% .217 .287 77 14 6 60
Luis Mendez COL 20 66 14% 17% .235 .315 75 10 4 60
Bryan Rincon PHI 19 82 9% 22% .225 .291 74 14 9 60
Jose Ramos SFG 20 102 8% 20% .228 .292 74 9 11 59
Dominic Keegan TBR 22 82 8% 21% .229 .293 76 14 2 59
Armando Cruz WSN 19 91 9% 15% .239 .301 74 11 7 59
Tayden Hall MIL 20 40 13% 19% .231 .307 73 11 3 59
Ambioris Tavarez ATL 19 96 8% 35% .200 .270 77 14 11 59
Jorel Ortega MIN 22 111 11% 23% .222 .296 74 8 10 58
Kevin Villavicencio NYM 19 86 8% 21% .226 .290 73 11 10 58
Andrew Cossetti MIN 23 91 8% 20% .230 .294 77 18 2 58
Ethan Workinger ATL 21 85 9% 20% .228 .292 73 17 5 58
Matthew Wood MIL 22 79 11% 20% .227 .299 72 16 4 58
Adrian Pinto TOR 20 75 9% 20% .225 .290 70 10 19 58
Juan Corniel ARI 20 89 11% 18% .231 .301 71 9 13 58
Kyle Nevin LAD 21 74 8% 23% .224 .289 76 8 4 58
Brenner Cox WSN 19 62 9% 34% .199 .272 74 16 15 58
Javier Sanoja MIA 20 108 6% 13% .241 .293 71 8 13 57
Cooper Kinney TBR 20 89 8% 19% .230 .291 74 16 2 57
Tucker Mitchell TEX 22 63 7% 23% .224 .284 76 15 6 57
Tucker Toman TOR 19 97 9% 25% .221 .289 77 11 2 57
Wuilfredo Antunez CLE 21 48 11% 20% .226 .298 72 9 8 57
Guy Lipscomb CLE 22 90 10% 22% .219 .286 66 6 29 57
Omar Martinez NYY 21 81 10% 28% .214 .285 76 18 2 56
Tyler Whitaker HOU 20 64 8% 32% .206 .275 77 14 6 56
Allan Castro BOS 20 100 11% 18% .230 .301 71 12 9 56
Sammy Hernandez TOR 19 49 5% 21% .227 .282 75 16 3 56
Jesus Galiz LAD 19 75 6% 20% .230 .286 74 14 2 56
Ryan Ritter COL 22 102 11% 27% .213 .287 74 23 4 55
Tres Gonzalez PIT 22 82 10% 17% .231 .298 69 9 13 55
Ronald Rosario BOS 20 64 11% 27% .213 .287 74 14 2 54
Gleider Figuereo TEX 19 82 10% 25% .217 .288 73 15 3 54
Pedro Ramirez CHC 19 82 7% 22% .224 .284 73 11 7 54
Sammy Infante WSN 22 80 9% 25% .215 .281 69 13 16 54
Cristian Santana DET 19 91 12% 21% .224 .298 70 14 3 54
Jair Casanova ATL 19 53 9% 27% .213 .281 74 16 7 54
Chandler Simpson TBR 22 92 7% 17% .228 .282 63 6 32 54
Junior Tilien NYM 20 98 8% 23% .221 .285 73 15 2 54
Jorge Caballero MIA 23 87 9% 21% .224 .288 71 9 12 53
Ariel Almonte CIN 19 88 8% 28% .213 .278 76 14 2 53
Ian Moller TEX 20 71 9% 33% .200 .272 73 17 4 53
Joshua Baez STL 20 61 8% 30% .206 .274 74 15 4 53
Brenny Escanio NYY 20 96 9% 24% .217 .284 69 9 14 53
Rikelbin De Castro TOR 20 55 8% 27% .213 .278 73 14 2 52
Victor Acosta CIN 19 76 8% 21% .225 .287 72 11 4 52
Jordan Viars PHI 19 77 7% 21% .225 .283 72 18 6 52
Robert Hassell III WSN 21 68 13% 16% .233 .307 69 12 6 52
Zachary Cole HOU 22 105 7% 34% .196 .262 70 21 15 52
Thomas Gavello SFG 22 83 7% 25% .218 .279 73 16 3 52
Agustin Ramirez NYY 21 74 9% 17% .231 .294 69 15 6 51
Erick Brito PHI 21 78 7% 15% .234 .291 69 11 9 51
Jordan Dissin PHI 21 41 9% 26% .215 .283 72 13 3 51
Nicolas Deschamps TOR 20 50 9% 22% .221 .285 70 18 2 51
Josh Hood SEA 22 116 5% 24% .216 .269 69 16 15 51
Jaden Rudd TOR 20 70 10% 23% .218 .285 69 10 10 51
Anthony Vilar SDP 24 70 13% 28% .210 .290 72 17 4 51
Jadher Areinamo MIL 19 72 7% 15% .233 .289 68 11 6 51
Juan Benjamin CLE 20 91 7% 26% .212 .272 70 9 15 51
Reivaj Garcia CHC 21 66 9% 23% .221 .287 72 8 4 51
Yosy Galan TEX 22 77 9% 27% .211 .278 71 21 6 50
Druw Jones ARI 19 46 9% 25% .217 .286 73 13 3 50
Lizandro Espinoza STL 20 91 10% 21% .221 .287 66 13 12 50
Brooks Baldwin CHW 22 58 7% 20% .222 .280 67 11 14 50
Bryant Betancourt COL 19 91 6% 18% .230 .285 71 11 2 49
Juan Alonso LAD 19 41 8% 34% .198 .267 74 13 6 49
Carlos Aguiar MIN 21 100 8% 29% .207 .272 72 17 4 49
Milkar Perez SEA 21 82 10% 22% .221 .291 70 8 2 49
Erick Pena KCR 20 81 11% 44% .175 .256 71 24 7 48
Jesus Rodriguez NYY 21 66 8% 16% .231 .288 67 12 10 48
Gregory Barrios MIL 19 93 7% 17% .229 .284 66 11 10 48
Deivis Nadal PIT 21 72 9% 28% .205 .272 66 14 16 48
Yeral Martinez NYM 20 41 7% 24% .216 .276 69 15 9 48
Kaylan Nicasia MIL 21 48 12% 31% .199 .277 66 9 21 48
Ronny Rojas NYY 21 56 7% 29% .205 .267 69 20 9 48
Bill Knight SEA 23 75 5% 28% .207 .262 67 14 21 47
Alvin Guzman ARI 21 91 8% 36% .191 .258 69 13 15 47
Lazaro Benitez DET 23 65 7% 19% .229 .286 71 10 2 47
Clark Elliott OAK 22 108 10% 19% .224 .290 65 5 9 47
Tyler Robertson SDP 23 102 6% 17% .228 .282 65 8 20 47
Malvin Valdez CIN 19 66 9% 29% .206 .273 70 15 6 47
Jefrey De Los Santos NYM 20 74 8% 23% .216 .277 67 16 8 47
Tyler Collins ATL 20 68 7% 23% .215 .272 64 10 21 47
Manuel Sequera DET 20 82 5% 27% .212 .267 71 13 3 47
Glenn Santiago TOR 22 52 10% 22% .220 .287 68 15 2 47
David Martin ARI 22 43 11% 19% .225 .293 66 8 6 46
Low-A Pitchers
Min 40 PA Peak Projection  
Name Team Age IP K% BB% GB% xxFIP xFIP xERA Robo
David Sandlin KCR 22 23.2 22% 9% 43% 4.14 4.64 4.53 100
Steven Zobac KCR 22 11 21% 9% 44% 4.19 4.61 4.55 98
Samuel Aldegheri PHI 21 15.2 20% 8% 46% 4.13 4.81 4.62 94
Wen Hui Pan PHI 20 11 20% 8% 48% 4.13 4.79 4.61 93
Blake Adams COL 22 23 18% 8% 51% 4.15 4.72 4.58 93
Frank Mozzicato KCR 20 23.2 23% 10% 42% 4.23 4.87 4.70 92
Alexander Vallecillo MIL 20 14 20% 8% 44% 4.27 4.84 4.71 90
Rafael Sanchez TOR 23 29.2 18% 8% 47% 4.32 4.64 4.63 90
Robby Snelling SDP 19 21 19% 8% 45% 4.36 4.81 4.74 86
Cedric De Grandpre ATL 21 15.2 19% 8% 46% 4.33 4.87 4.75 86
Zebby Matthews MIN 23 24.1 19% 8% 43% 4.47 4.76 4.77 85
Justin Lange NYY 21 14.2 21% 10% 44% 4.35 4.96 4.81 85
Orion Kerkering PHI 22 10.1 18% 9% 47% 4.40 4.79 4.75 84
Dalton Rogers BOS 22 12.2 21% 10% 45% 4.35 4.97 4.82 84
Jack Choate SFG 22 17.1 18% 9% 47% 4.44 4.74 4.74 84
Hayden Birdsong SFG 21 15.2 20% 9% 44% 4.40 4.98 4.84 83
Isaiah Lowe SDP 20 11.1 18% 8% 46% 4.39 4.90 4.80 83
Cade Horton CHC 21 14.1 20% 9% 42% 4.44 4.98 4.87 82
Edwin Jimenez MIL 21 18 18% 9% 47% 4.40 4.92 4.82 82
Owen Kellington PIT 20 16.2 19% 9% 44% 4.46 4.88 4.83 82
Trey Dombroski HOU 22 21 20% 9% 42% 4.50 4.92 4.87 81
Jake Bennett WSN 22 21.1 18% 9% 49% 4.38 4.94 4.82 81
Liam Simon SFG 22 17 19% 10% 48% 4.37 5.03 4.85 80
Kendry Rojas TOR 20 17.1 18% 8% 45% 4.54 4.85 4.85 79
Henry Baez SDP 20 16 18% 9% 50% 4.35 5.01 4.83 79
Jose Fleury HOU 21 19 20% 10% 48% 4.37 5.05 4.87 79
D.J. McCarty TEX 20 10.1 18% 9% 47% 4.45 4.95 4.85 79
Jerming Rosario LAD 21 21 18% 9% 45% 4.54 4.89 4.87 78
Owen Murphy ATL 19 15.1 18% 8% 38% 4.65 4.93 4.95 78
Caden Dana LAA 19 15 18% 8% 41% 4.61 4.99 4.96 77
Carson Whisenhunt SFG 22 13.2 18% 9% 46% 4.51 5.02 4.92 76
Aidan Curry TEX 20 16.1 19% 9% 43% 4.55 5.06 4.97 76
Max Rajcic STL 21 25.2 15% 7% 45% 4.66 4.91 4.94 74
Jhancarlos Lara ATL 20 11.1 18% 9% 46% 4.51 5.14 4.99 74
Brock Selvidge NYY 20 24.2 14% 8% 50% 4.60 4.83 4.88 74
Michael Morales SEA 20 20.1 17% 9% 42% 4.70 4.95 4.98 74
Brandon Schaeffer SEA 23 22.2 18% 9% 43% 4.65 5.02 5.00 73
Shane Murphy CHW 22 20 18% 8% 40% 4.67 5.12 5.06 73
Marcus Johnson TBR 22 20 16% 8% 43% 4.68 4.99 5.00 73
Cory Lewis MIN 22 24 17% 9% 44% 4.65 5.03 5.01 72
Yaqui Rivera BAL 19 10 16% 9% 46% 4.68 4.92 4.96 72
Maddux Bruns LAD 21 17.1 19% 10% 45% 4.55 5.20 5.04 72
Andrew Taylor HOU 21 14.2 19% 9% 40% 4.69 5.17 5.09 71
Payton Martin LAD 19 11.2 15% 8% 46% 4.69 5.00 5.01 70
Joey Mancini HOU 22 20.2 17% 9% 45% 4.63 5.17 5.07 70
Michael Knorr HOU 23 17.1 18% 10% 47% 4.60 5.15 5.04 70
Seth Keller ATL 19 15 14% 7% 49% 4.63 5.04 5.00 69
Leonard Garcia LAA 19 15.1 17% 9% 40% 4.78 5.08 5.10 69
Cole Kirschsieper MIA 22 17.1 18% 10% 44% 4.68 5.15 5.08 69
Manuel Castro SDP 21 14 16% 9% 47% 4.67 5.09 5.04 69
Jose Corniell TEX 20 15 16% 9% 45% 4.70 5.10 5.07 68
Connor McCullough CHW 23 19.1 17% 9% 45% 4.71 5.11 5.08 68
Nate Peterson MIL 23 18.2 18% 10% 45% 4.66 5.24 5.12 67
Brock Porter TEX 20 16 19% 10% 44% 4.62 5.33 5.14 67
Eliander Alcalde TOR 19 14.2 16% 9% 44% 4.74 5.13 5.10 67
Patricio Aquino MIL 20 18.1 16% 9% 46% 4.67 5.21 5.11 66
Wesley Moore PHI 23 11 17% 10% 44% 4.84 4.98 5.07 66
Jose Dicochea OAK 22 16 17% 10% 48% 4.64 5.22 5.10 66
Lucas Wepf LAD 23 12.1 15% 9% 44% 4.92 4.92 5.08 65
Leonardo Pestana NYY 24 16.2 17% 10% 49% 4.62 5.28 5.12 65
Troy Melton DET 22 20.2 15% 8% 46% 4.77 5.12 5.12 65
Jake Madden LAA 21 15 17% 10% 47% 4.68 5.26 5.14 65
Michael Darrell-Hicks LAA 25 12.2 17% 10% 41% 4.94 5.00 5.14 64
Ryan Jennings TOR 24 16.2 20% 10% 36% 4.81 5.40 5.28 64
Nolan DeVos HOU 22 19.2 19% 11% 44% 4.73 5.31 5.19 64
Edwin Nunez STL 21 10.1 15% 9% 45% 4.85 5.07 5.13 63
Jacob Miller MIA 19 17 15% 9% 47% 4.78 5.16 5.14 63
Jorge Marcheco LAA 20 20.2 16% 8% 36% 5.01 5.18 5.27 61
Tyler Schweitzer CHW 22 20 14% 9% 47% 4.81 5.18 5.16 61
Mason Albright LAA 20 18 14% 8% 43% 4.91 5.16 5.21 61
Brycen Mautz STL 21 21.1 15% 9% 46% 4.81 5.27 5.21 60
Jordy Vargas COL 19 24 16% 8% 37% 5.02 5.19 5.28 60
Alex Ayala Jr. TBR 21 12 15% 9% 45% 4.82 5.30 5.23 60
C.J. Culpepper MIN 21 13 15% 9% 46% 4.82 5.29 5.22 60
Michael Prosecky COL 22 17 17% 9% 42% 4.85 5.36 5.28 59
Marco Jimenez DET 23 13.2 17% 10% 44% 4.87 5.29 5.25 59
Alex McFarlane PHI 22 13.2 17% 11% 51% 4.65 5.43 5.21 59
Nic Swanson HOU 23 18.1 17% 10% 46% 4.76 5.41 5.26 59
Michael Arias CHC 21 11.2 18% 10% 41% 4.87 5.39 5.30 59
Breidy Encarnacion MIA 22 11.2 14% 9% 44% 5.01 5.04 5.19 59
Shane Smith MIL 23 12.1 15% 10% 43% 4.96 5.16 5.23 59
Pete Hansen STL 22 23.1 16% 10% 42% 4.92 5.30 5.28 59
Jorge Bautista ATL 22 16 17% 10% 46% 4.83 5.33 5.25 58
Drew McDaniel CHW 22 16 14% 8% 46% 4.88 5.24 5.23 58
Landon Harper ATL 22 17.2 12% 8% 47% 5.00 5.00 5.17 58
Cade Halemanu TBR 22 12 16% 10% 46% 4.83 5.37 5.27 58
Brody McCullough CHC 23 16.1 15% 9% 45% 4.88 5.29 5.26 58
Jake Garland OAK 22 26.1 12% 8% 52% 4.84 5.15 5.17 58
Jared Poland MIA 23 16 15% 9% 45% 4.94 5.20 5.24 58
Peter Heubeck LAD 20 16 16% 10% 43% 4.86 5.39 5.30 57
Manuel Mercedes SFG 20 20 11% 8% 53% 4.83 5.13 5.15 57
Jared Beck BAL 22 19.1 15% 9% 47% 4.86 5.31 5.25 57
Sean Hermann NYY 20 24.2 11% 8% 52% 4.85 5.15 5.17 57
Edgardo Ibarra DET 20 14.1 15% 9% 43% 4.96 5.25 5.28 57
Jose Atencio WSN 21 10.2 15% 9% 46% 4.89 5.29 5.26 57
Yorlin Calderon NYY 21 12 13% 9% 45% 5.06 5.04 5.22 56
Pablo Aldonis WSN 21 16 16% 9% 44% 4.87 5.41 5.31 56
Matt Brosky TEX 23 15 13% 9% 45% 5.06 5.04 5.22 56
Karson Milbrandt MIA 19 23 15% 9% 42% 5.00 5.25 5.30 56
Alex Rao PHI 23 14 16% 10% 42% 4.91 5.42 5.34 56
Jarlin Susana WSN 19 11.2 16% 10% 46% 4.83 5.46 5.32 56
Jawilme Ramirez NYM 21 22.1 13% 8% 40% 5.11 5.19 5.32 56
Deivy Cruz BAL 19 14.2 16% 10% 43% 4.88 5.46 5.34 55
Liam Norris ARI 21 15.1 14% 9% 44% 5.05 5.12 5.26 55
Austin Peterson CLE 23 18 13% 8% 47% 4.95 5.26 5.27 55
Chris McElvain CIN 22 20.1 15% 9% 42% 5.00 5.33 5.34 55
Ben Kudrna KCR 20 21 14% 9% 45% 4.98 5.26 5.29 55
Moises Chace BAL 20 16.1 16% 10% 47% 4.81 5.50 5.32 55
Fernando Sanchez SDP 22 11.2 14% 9% 45% 5.06 5.13 5.27 55
Yorman Gomez CLE 20 17.2 13% 8% 49% 4.91 5.26 5.25 55
J.P. Massey PIT 23 13.1 15% 10% 47% 4.88 5.39 5.31 55
Yaifer Perdomo ARI 21 12.2 14% 10% 43% 5.10 5.12 5.28 54
Parker Messick CLE 22 17 14% 9% 44% 5.00 5.31 5.33 54
Derek Diamond PIT 22 18 12% 8% 45% 5.03 5.23 5.30 54
Dominic Perachi PIT 22 15.2 14% 10% 47% 4.95 5.30 5.30 54
Luis Velasquez NYY 21 14 12% 9% 51% 4.99 5.11 5.22 53
Mason Vinyard NYY 24 13.1 15% 10% 44% 5.04 5.25 5.32 53
Trevor Martin TBR 22 14.2 16% 10% 43% 4.95 5.46 5.38 53
Jose Ramirez BOS 22 18 15% 10% 47% 4.92 5.37 5.32 53
Ricardo Yan ARI 20 15 16% 10% 45% 4.86 5.56 5.39 53
Walbert Urena LAA 19 18.1 15% 9% 41% 5.02 5.40 5.39 53
Oscar Rayo KCR 21 11 14% 9% 45% 5.01 5.32 5.34 53
Matt Wyatt TBR 22 12.2 14% 10% 51% 4.93 5.27 5.27 52
Thomas Harrington PIT 21 24.2 14% 9% 41% 5.07 5.36 5.39 52
Dylan MacLean TEX 20 17.2 14% 9% 41% 5.07 5.38 5.40 52
Johzan Oquendo CHC 22 10 15% 10% 45% 5.04 5.29 5.34 52
Armando Vasquez ARI 22 12.1 13% 9% 40% 5.26 5.09 5.35 51
Shane Gray NYY 23 13.2 13% 9% 43% 5.19 5.14 5.34 51
Bryan Sanchez WSN 20 12.2 15% 10% 46% 4.92 5.54 5.41 51
Adrian Rodriguez TEX 22 10 15% 10% 45% 4.99 5.43 5.39 51
Mauricio Veliz KCR 20 12 14% 9% 48% 4.93 5.45 5.37 51
Luis De La Rosa BOS 20 18 14% 9% 43% 5.10 5.33 5.39 50
Tyler Guilfoil HOU 23 19.2 16% 10% 41% 5.02 5.57 5.47 50
Austin Krob SDP 23 14.2 17% 11% 45% 4.96 5.54 5.43 50
Starlyn Castillo PHI 21 12.1 14% 10% 49% 4.90 5.52 5.38 50
Christian Romero LAD 20 15.2 11% 8% 48% 5.15 5.12 5.31 49
Tanner McDougal CHW 20 11.2 16% 10% 44% 4.96 5.58 5.45 49
Ulices Campos DET 21 13 13% 9% 44% 5.12 5.33 5.40 49
Jacob Steinmetz ARI 19 12 14% 10% 43% 5.08 5.40 5.42 49
Lazaro Estrada TOR 24 13.1 14% 10% 41% 5.18 5.31 5.42 49
Joshua Loeschorn PIT 23 10.1 12% 9% 43% 5.23 5.15 5.37 49
Darlin Alcantara BAL 21 10.1 11% 8% 47% 5.19 5.12 5.33 49
Ben Ethridge MIN 21 13 13% 10% 44% 5.19 5.19 5.37 49
Shawn Rapp CLE 22 11.1 14% 10% 44% 5.13 5.34 5.41 48
Leandro Lopez TEX 21 12 15% 11% 47% 4.95 5.57 5.44 48
Joseph Montalvo TEX 21 17.2 16% 10% 40% 5.11 5.55 5.51 47
Douglas Orellana NYM 21 13 14% 9% 43% 5.08 5.53 5.48 47
Develson Aria MIN 22 16.1 15% 10% 44% 5.06 5.51 5.46 47
Marino Santy CHC 21 15 14% 11% 52% 4.98 5.40 5.36 47

High-A:

Top Hitters per RoboScout (min 40 plate appearances)
1. Junior Caminero (TBR No. 8 prospect)
2. Ignacio Alvarez (ATL No. 15 prospect)
3. Jonatan Clase (SEA No. 12 prospect)
4. Jackson Holliday (BAL No. 3 prospect)
5. Carter Jensen (KCR No. 10 prospect)
6. Harry Ford (SEA No. 1 prospect)
7. Yiddi Cappe (MIA No. 4 prospect)
8. Sterlin Thompson (COL No. 8 prospect)
9. Yeiner Fernandez (LAD No. 24 prospect)
10. Alejandro Osuna (TEX unranked)

To no one’s surprise, Caminero remains atop of the leaderboard in High-A as he continues to massacre pitchers for Bowling Green. We talked about Clase, who received a promotion to Arkansas and, interestingly, despite only 41 plate appearances, Holliday finds himself barely qualifying for the High-A leaderboard and landing in fourth.

The most interesting name for me is Alvarez, who was the fourth-youngest hitter in the South Atlantic League when the season started. He has the fielding chops and arm to adequately handle multiple infield positions but has been playing shortstop for Rome exclusively. The pitch recognition, swing decisions and bat-to-ball skills were hinted at last year over 71 plate appearances, and he has maintained or improved on them in 2023—while also adding mph to his 90th percentile exit velocity, which is currently average for the level despite his young age. The under-the-hood data fully supports the ridiculous 25% walk rate and 9% strikeout rate. If he can cut the ground balls and manifest the raw power into game power, he may be able to find himself in the Top 100 conversation by the end of the year.

Top Pitchers per RoboScout (min 10 innings pitched):
1. Noah Cameron (KCR No. 23 prospect)
2. Kumar Rocker (TEX No. 10 prospect)
3. Luinder Avila (KCR unranked)
4. AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL No.1 prospect)
5. Dylan Ray (ARI No. 20 prospect)
6. Mitch Bratt (TEX No. 6 prospect)
7. Keider Montero (DET unranked)
8. Ronan Kopp (LAD No. 15 prospect)
9. Jairo Iriarte (SDP No. 13 prospect)
10. Will Dion (CLE unranked)

I’m happy to see Rocker finding early season success, placing himself just behind Cameron (who also was named in Geoff’s underrated pitching prospect article). For this week, I’ll switch gears and discuss Ray (ARI No. 20 prospect). The D-backs are trying to stretch him out as a starter and thus far, he’s had success and has been able to repeat his loose delivery. His four-seamer is in the mid 90s, touching 97, and is one of only a handful of minor league fastballs that has over 20 inches of IVB and 11 inches of run. His tight bullet slider has 2 inches of lift and 2 inches of cut and generates a ton of ground balls. The changeup has nearly 10 mph of separation and has 7 inches of vertical separation from the fastball. In his most recent start, he only punched out four batters over five innings, but on the season still finds himself with a 34% strikeout rate and a minuscule 3.2% walk rate. All in all, the aggregate stuff grades out as above-average and looks like he might be able to carve out a back-of-the-rotation role (or a solid middle reliever with his fastball/slider combo).

High-A Hitters
Min 40 PA Peak Projection 600PA
Name Team Age PA BB% K% xBA xOBP wRC+ HR SB Robo
Junior Caminero TBR 19 92 7% 19% .249 .311 98 26 6 100
Ignacio Alvarez ATL 20 107 15% 9% .263 .346 90 10 13 95
Jonatan Clase SEA 21 106 11% 24% .229 .304 85 20 28 92
Jackson Holliday BAL 19 41 12% 17% .246 .322 88 16 16 88
Carter Jensen KCR 19 101 17% 21% .234 .326 84 17 8 83
Harry Ford SEA 20 108 14% 18% .240 .320 84 15 10 81
Yiddi Cappe MIA 20 103 7% 16% .245 .303 86 18 8 81
Sterlin Thompson COL 22 78 7% 12% .252 .308 81 13 12 80
Yeiner Fernandez LAD 20 89 10% 15% .248 .316 85 15 6 79
Alejandro Osuna TEX 20 79 15% 19% .235 .320 80 11 18 77
Max Acosta TEX 20 86 8% 23% .230 .295 83 16 17 77
Cayden Wallace KCR 21 107 10% 19% .236 .305 83 16 11 77
Adam Zebrowski ATL 22 70 11% 25% .224 .299 81 21 5 77
Tsung-Che Cheng PIT 21 94 10% 17% .239 .306 80 14 16 76
Chase Meidroth BOS 21 86 14% 20% .234 .315 81 12 10 76
Juan Brito CLE 21 89 10% 12% .251 .317 82 13 4 75
Nathan Martorella SDP 22 98 9% 15% .246 .311 82 20 4 75
Roberto Campos DET 20 94 8% 21% .235 .300 86 17 2 74
Dalton Rushing LAD 22 99 13% 24% .226 .308 83 17 2 74
DJ Gladney CHW 21 103 5% 23% .229 .286 84 23 4 74
Blake Dunn CIN 24 97 8% 20% .231 .293 77 17 24 74
Marcelo Mayer BOS 20 101 10% 19% .237 .305 82 13 7 73
Austin Gauthier LAD 24 97 11% 21% .233 .305 82 10 5 73
Aaron Palensky NYY 24 67 7% 23% .224 .285 77 22 18 73
James Wood WSN 20 91 8% 23% .229 .294 81 14 11 72
Kala’i Rosario MIN 20 94 10% 23% .230 .301 84 13 4 71
Adael Amador COL 20 75 7% 11% .249 .305 77 14 17 71
Blaze Jordan BOS 20 95 7% 19% .237 .298 82 17 4 71
Hao-Yu Lee PHI 20 90 10% 18% .236 .305 78 12 11 71
Haydn McGeary CHC 23 90 9% 20% .233 .300 80 14 7 70
Wilfred Veras CHW 20 98 6% 20% .235 .291 81 16 10 69
Kevin Made CHC 20 88 9% 20% .233 .298 80 13 6 69
Loidel Chapelli CHW 21 81 10% 23% .225 .295 77 13 10 68
Carson Williams TBR 20 68 10% 29% .214 .287 80 15 9 68
Izaac Pacheco DET 20 97 7% 26% .221 .284 80 20 2 67
Dayan Frias CLE 21 58 11% 17% .237 .306 75 10 5 67
Jackson Merrill SDP 20 82 8% 13% .246 .305 78 16 6 67
Victor Scott II STL 22 107 6% 18% .233 .287 74 9 33 67
Eduardo Lopez BOS 21 60 10% 26% .216 .288 76 14 17 67
Kevin Alcantara CHC 20 100 6% 22% .229 .287 79 17 13 66
Alexander Vargas NYY 21 81 8% 23% .224 .287 76 16 12 66
Nathan Church STL 22 111 7% 11% .248 .304 74 9 12 66
Noah Miller MIN 20 99 9% 19% .232 .298 78 13 7 65
Willy Vasquez TBR 21 83 10% 19% .233 .302 76 14 10 65
Terrell Tatum CHW 23 94 12% 23% .221 .297 73 10 21 65
Javier Vaz KCR 22 54 9% 13% .243 .306 72 9 13 65
Frederick Bencosme BAL 20 71 11% 17% .237 .308 76 11 9 65
Joe Lampe CLE 22 88 8% 17% .236 .296 75 11 13 64
Danny Serretti DET 23 86 7% 22% .227 .287 78 13 6 64
Yordys Valdes CLE 21 68 6% 20% .232 .290 78 14 5 64
Alex Ramirez NYM 20 90 7% 18% .235 .295 77 12 9 64
Jakob Marsee SDP 22 105 13% 20% .228 .305 72 7 18 64
Victor Bericoto SFG 21 90 8% 18% .234 .297 77 15 2 64
Wade Meckler SFG 23 52 8% 17% .237 .297 75 10 6 64
T.J. White WSN 19 75 13% 26% .219 .299 79 15 3 64
Eddinson Paulino BOS 20 95 6% 17% .235 .289 74 13 16 63
Ben Rice NYY 24 68 14% 19% .228 .307 71 10 9 63
Aeverson Arteaga SFG 20 101 9% 22% .227 .293 78 14 5 63
Gabriel Martinez TOR 20 77 6% 15% .243 .298 78 13 3 63
Noah Mendlinger STL 22 50 11% 18% .232 .303 74 12 9 63
Jace Jung DET 22 100 10% 23% .224 .294 75 17 4 63
Chris Meyers DET 24 66 8% 22% .227 .291 76 24 3 62
Caleb Durbin NYY 23 89 9% 13% .239 .300 69 6 29 62
Dylan Beavers BAL 21 97 9% 24% .222 .290 75 12 7 62
Luis Toribio SFG 22 88 9% 28% .214 .284 76 21 2 62
Stanley Consuegra NYM 22 87 8% 21% .227 .289 75 16 6 61
Jeremy Rivas STL 20 91 10% 23% .223 .292 76 10 7 61
Yohendrick Pinango CHC 21 104 10% 19% .229 .298 73 11 10 61
Drew Gilbert HOU 22 90 6% 22% .225 .282 75 16 7 61
Jacob Melton HOU 22 68 13% 26% .211 .291 69 13 20 60
Kevin Parada NYM 21 90 9% 23% .223 .289 75 13 4 60
Jimmy Crooks STL 21 83 13% 21% .228 .307 75 9 4 60
Arol Vera LAA 20 102 9% 24% .221 .289 75 13 7 59
Ben Malgeri DET 23 54 7% 24% .222 .283 75 19 3 59
Yunior Garcia LAD 21 67 6% 23% .223 .282 76 21 3 59
Juan Guerrero COL 21 94 7% 14% .241 .298 73 12 4 59
Keshawn Ogans ATL 21 62 12% 16% .235 .306 71 10 7 59
Adrian Sugastey SFG 20 73 7% 16% .237 .293 75 13 3 59
Edwin Arroyo CIN 19 73 7% 20% .231 .289 77 15 5 59
Alberto Rodriguez SEA 22 97 10% 21% .226 .295 74 9 4 58
Spencer Jones NYY 22 98 6% 31% .205 .266 74 16 14 58
Adrian Placencia LAA 20 86 13% 26% .215 .296 74 10 8 58
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr. ATL 22 107 11% 25% .215 .288 70 11 13 57
Alex Freeland LAD 21 105 10% 26% .215 .286 72 13 13 57
Justice Bigbie DET 24 58 6% 20% .228 .285 73 18 5 57
J.J. D’Orazio ARI 21 87 13% 15% .236 .309 71 9 6 57
Robert Moore MIL 21 101 8% 20% .228 .290 72 13 8 57
Geraldo Quintero ATL 21 101 8% 19% .228 .289 71 11 15 57
Lazaro Armenteros OAK 24 57 8% 34% .196 .264 71 23 20 56
Tyler Locklear SEA 22 106 7% 20% .227 .287 73 14 5 56
Jose Salas MIN 20 81 8% 22% .221 .283 71 13 14 56
Jake Thompson MIA 25 64 10% 21% .225 .291 71 18 5 56
Caeden Trenkle OAK 22 87 10% 24% .219 .288 71 12 9 56
Jorge Burgos CLE 21 78 9% 15% .238 .301 72 11 3 55
Ben Ross MIN 22 90 8% 24% .220 .283 74 13 4 55
Alexander Ramirez LAA 20 91 7% 27% .214 .276 75 10 13 55
Max Muncy OAK 20 94 8% 35% .200 .270 77 15 4 54
Benny Montgomery COL 20 97 8% 22% .225 .287 75 12 4 54
Drake Baldwin ATL 22 75 11% 25% .215 .287 72 16 3 54
Leandro Pineda PHI 21 81 8% 22% .222 .286 71 14 8 54
Jesus Chirinos MIL 21 63 10% 30% .208 .280 74 15 5 54
Miguel Palma HOU 21 76 8% 20% .226 .288 71 12 6 54
Daniel Mateo TEX 21 88 5% 20% .227 .279 70 12 15 54
Eduardo Garcia MIL 20 91 9% 31% .206 .275 74 13 4 54
Jordan Beck COL 22 82 5% 22% .221 .275 70 18 4 54
Fabian Pertuz CHC 22 94 7% 21% .222 .280 69 12 16 53
Marcus Lee Sang PHI 22 88 12% 28% .207 .285 69 9 11 53
Yanquiel Fernandez COL 20 92 6% 18% .231 .286 73 14 2 53
Alan Roden TOR 23 75 9% 15% .235 .295 68 9 9 53
Jase Bowen PIT 22 98 7% 28% .207 .270 70 13 10 53
Zach Kokoska COL 24 71 10% 24% .216 .285 67 11 15 53
Walking Cabrera SEA 22 58 9% 30% .206 .275 70 17 5 53
Rafael Flores NYY 22 63 7% 18% .230 .289 70 8 5 53
Dru Baker TBR 23 84 8% 25% .211 .273 66 8 25 52
Troy Schreffler PHI 22 46 11% 25% .212 .284 66 9 28 52
Justice Thompson CIN 22 78 12% 34% .197 .278 72 10 6 52
Sammy Siani PIT 22 62 9% 29% .204 .274 68 10 19 52
Bryan Gonzalez BOS 21 65 8% 32% .202 .269 74 15 5 52
Kervin Pichardo SDP 21 44 9% 27% .211 .278 72 14 4 51
Jud Fabian BAL 22 87 9% 24% .216 .282 67 13 9 51
Noah Cardenas MIN 23 78 8% 24% .217 .280 70 9 6 51
Hudson Head PIT 22 83 7% 28% .208 .270 69 11 8 51
Alex De Jesus TOR 21 80 8% 25% .216 .279 70 14 2 50
Jackson Glenn PIT 25 79 8% 17% .230 .290 67 12 4 50
Joe Mack MIA 20 91 9% 23% .220 .286 72 10 2 50
Aaron McKeithan STL 23 70 8% 19% .227 .288 68 12 5 50
Wilderd Patino ARI 21 91 11% 26% .211 .283 66 9 25 50
Junior Sanquintin CLE 21 52 8% 24% .217 .280 71 10 6 50
Wes Kath CHW 20 81 7% 34% .199 .264 74 17 2 49
Devonte Brown TOR 23 45 7% 28% .208 .269 69 11 9 49
Zach Dezenzo HOU 23 81 9% 26% .212 .279 68 9 6 49
Shane Sasaki TBR 22 87 9% 20% .222 .284 65 9 13 49
Tanner Schobel MIN 22 97 6% 22% .219 .275 68 15 4 49
Eliezer Alfonzo DET 23 68 6% 11% .243 .294 68 11 3 49
Christian Cairo CLE 22 53 10% 21% .222 .288 69 9 3 49
Jake Vogel LAD 21 80 7% 23% .220 .281 70 9 2 49
Axel Sanchez SEA 20 82 9% 29% .204 .272 67 10 14 49
Euribiel Angeles OAK 21 67 5% 19% .227 .279 69 12 9 48
Isaiah Greene CLE 21 71 9% 36% .191 .264 70 14 9 48
Daniel Susac OAK 22 90 6% 26% .212 .271 70 12 4 48
Shawn Goosenberg CHW 23 70 7% 26% .209 .270 65 11 22 48
Austin Hendrick CIN 22 101 9% 34% .195 .266 68 9 10 48
Jaylen Palmer NYM 22 81 9% 31% .199 .268 66 10 21 48
Will Bartlett CLE 22 47 12% 33% .198 .276 69 14 3 48
Jacob Young WSN 23 80 6% 19% .222 .276 63 8 27 48
Darrien Miller MIL 22 74 8% 19% .225 .286 66 10 5 48
Cody Freeman TEX 22 65 6% 23% .218 .274 68 14 5 47
Nathan Hickey BOS 23 78 9% 26% .212 .281 69 12 3 47
Ben Metzinger MIL 24 63 14% 30% .203 .288 68 12 3 47
High-A Pitchers
Min 40 PA Peak Projection  
Name Team Age IP K% BB% GB% xxFIP xFIP xERA Robo
Noah Cameron KCR 23 24.2 25% 9% 46% 3.68 4.22 4.08 100
Kumar Rocker TEX 23 23.1 24% 8% 50% 3.67 4.43 4.18 95
Luinder Avila KCR 21 21.1 22% 8% 49% 3.81 4.22 4.15 93
AJ Smith-Shawver ATL 20 14 24% 8% 43% 3.79 4.50 4.28 92
Dylan Ray ARI 22 24 20% 7% 47% 3.98 4.54 4.40 84
Mitch Bratt TEX 19 16.2 19% 6% 47% 4.02 4.35 4.32 84
Keider Montero DET 22 16 20% 8% 47% 4.12 4.48 4.45 81
Ronan Kopp LAD 20 14.2 23% 9% 42% 4.16 4.54 4.50 79
Jairo Iriarte SDP 21 18 22% 9% 44% 4.17 4.52 4.49 79
Will Dion CLE 23 13.2 22% 9% 44% 4.14 4.71 4.57 78
Chad Dallas TOR 23 20.2 22% 9% 48% 4.03 4.86 4.60 77
Jean Pinto BAL 22 22 21% 9% 46% 4.13 4.80 4.61 75
Chase Hampton NYY 21 13.2 22% 9% 42% 4.22 4.82 4.67 74
Carson Ragsdale SFG 25 20.2 21% 8% 46% 4.15 4.96 4.71 73
Josh Stephan TEX 21 22 19% 8% 49% 4.13 4.83 4.63 73
Carlos Pena DET 24 19.1 19% 9% 47% 4.32 4.63 4.63 73
Alexander Cornielle MIL 21 13.1 19% 8% 44% 4.39 4.57 4.63 72
Kyle Luckham WSN 23 15 20% 8% 46% 4.23 4.86 4.70 72
Tyler Mattison DET 23 14 20% 9% 41% 4.51 4.54 4.68 71
Gabriel Hughes COL 21 18.2 19% 8% 47% 4.22 4.87 4.69 71
Juan Mercedes SEA 23 21 19% 8% 45% 4.31 4.84 4.73 70
Julian Aguiar CIN 22 17.1 19% 9% 46% 4.38 4.65 4.66 70
Nick Sinacola SFG 23 21 19% 8% 46% 4.28 4.96 4.78 68
Tyler Stuart NYM 23 18.2 20% 9% 48% 4.30 4.88 4.74 68
Trace Bright BAL 22 13 22% 10% 41% 4.41 4.94 4.83 67
Drew Thorpe NYY 22 22 19% 9% 46% 4.36 4.87 4.77 67
Isaac Coffey BOS 23 26.2 19% 8% 42% 4.44 4.92 4.84 66
Pierson Ohl MIN 23 20 17% 8% 43% 4.57 4.71 4.80 65
Juan Carela NYY 21 20.2 18% 8% 44% 4.41 4.93 4.83 65
Dustin Saenz WSN 24 22.1 18% 9% 49% 4.32 5.04 4.83 64
Marlon Perez WSN 23 10.1 19% 9% 41% 4.64 4.81 4.88 63
Adam Macko TOR 22 12.2 18% 9% 47% 4.41 4.99 4.86 62
Angel Bastardo BOS 21 23 19% 9% 46% 4.37 5.08 4.88 62
Dahian Santos TOR 20 11.1 20% 9% 40% 4.46 5.08 4.93 62
Chandler Champlain KCR 23 26.2 16% 8% 50% 4.48 4.84 4.82 62
Daniel Federman BAL 24 19.2 19% 9% 42% 4.50 5.13 4.98 61
Ian Bedell STL 23 16 19% 9% 38% 4.76 4.77 4.92 61
Danny Watson NYY 22 12.2 18% 9% 46% 4.56 4.86 4.87 61
Reid VanScoter SEA 24 24.2 17% 10% 56% 4.35 4.97 4.81 61
Blade Tidwell NYM 22 16.2 21% 10% 40% 4.51 5.18 5.01 60
Reid Johnston CLE 24 14.2 19% 10% 45% 4.53 5.05 4.95 60
Tommy Sommer CHW 24 12 20% 10% 45% 4.44 5.21 4.99 60
Luke Little CHC 22 17.1 17% 9% 49% 4.46 5.04 4.91 59
Anthony Solometo PIT 20 21 18% 9% 45% 4.51 5.00 4.92 59
Wilkin Ramos NYM 22 12.2 16% 9% 50% 4.55 4.83 4.85 59
Mason Barnett KCR 22 20.1 19% 9% 43% 4.59 4.98 4.95 59
Alex Cornwell STL 24 24 15% 8% 49% 4.62 4.80 4.87 59
Trenton Wallace TOR 24 20 17% 8% 46% 4.52 5.12 4.98 59
Jarrod Cande COL 23 21.2 18% 8% 44% 4.56 5.11 5.00 58
Robinson Pina LAA 24 11 18% 9% 47% 4.59 4.97 4.94 58
Kohl Franklin CHC 23 19.1 20% 10% 40% 4.66 5.07 5.03 58
Victor Juarez COL 20 18.1 16% 7% 45% 4.54 5.06 4.96 57
Donovan Benoit CIN 24 10.2 16% 9% 43% 4.80 4.78 4.95 57
Peyton Plumlee HOU 26 12 19% 9% 43% 4.61 5.19 5.06 57
Tyson Guerrero KCR 24 19 17% 9% 43% 4.70 4.99 5.01 57
Michell Miliano PIT 23 14 18% 10% 43% 4.74 4.89 4.98 57
JJ Goss TBR 22 16 17% 9% 46% 4.54 5.19 5.03 56
Jonah Scolaro CHW 24 10.2 18% 9% 41% 4.72 5.07 5.06 56
Jose Acuna CIN 20 17.1 15% 7% 44% 4.71 4.90 4.97 55
Patrick Wicklander TBR 23 18 18% 9% 46% 4.60 5.17 5.05 55
Blake Holub DET 24 13.2 15% 8% 43% 4.88 4.79 5.00 54
Bubba Chandler PIT 20 22.1 17% 9% 51% 4.50 5.10 4.96 54
Brayan De Paula HOU 24 13.1 17% 10% 50% 4.59 5.11 5.01 54
Cristhian Tortosa DET 24 11.1 16% 9% 47% 4.75 4.93 5.00 53
Jake Lyons BAL 24 14.2 17% 9% 47% 4.63 5.20 5.08 53
Regi Grace MIN 23 12.2 16% 9% 45% 4.74 5.01 5.04 53
Jorge Juan OAK 24 11.1 18% 11% 44% 4.82 4.93 5.04 53
Tyler Schoff WSN 24 13.2 15% 9% 49% 4.74 4.92 5.00 53
Larson Kindreich TEX 24 14 18% 9% 43% 4.65 5.29 5.14 53
Jaylen Nowlin MIN 22 15.2 17% 9% 42% 4.79 5.04 5.08 53
Zach Messinger NYY 23 26 18% 9% 40% 4.69 5.34 5.18 52
Jack Perkins OAK 23 20.1 15% 9% 47% 4.73 5.04 5.05 52
Kyle Jones MIN 23 19.1 14% 8% 50% 4.72 4.96 5.01 52
Cooper Hjerpe STL 22 21.2 18% 10% 42% 4.74 5.18 5.13 52
Victor Lizarraga SDP 19 15.2 13% 7% 44% 4.86 4.80 4.99 52
Rafael Marcano PHI 23 10 17% 9% 45% 4.68 5.25 5.13 52
Jake Pilarski LAD 25 11.2 16% 10% 48% 4.78 5.00 5.05 51
Richard Gallardo CHC 21 25.1 13% 7% 48% 4.79 4.90 5.01 51
Wikelman Gonzalez BOS 21 13.2 19% 11% 47% 4.55 5.36 5.12 51
Trent Baker STL 24 22.2 15% 8% 41% 4.92 5.02 5.14 50
Ryan Brady MIL 24 14.2 13% 9% 49% 4.86 4.87 5.03 50
Nick Pogue WSN 23 13.2 14% 8% 45% 4.85 5.04 5.11 50
Jonathan Cannon CHW 22 21.1 14% 8% 52% 4.67 5.07 5.03 50
Alejandro Hidalgo MIN 20 14 17% 9% 42% 4.77 5.15 5.13 50
Abdiel Mendoza TOR 24 14 17% 9% 45% 4.72 5.27 5.17 50
Keyshawn Askew TBR 23 18.1 17% 10% 50% 4.57 5.41 5.16 49
Nick Jones LAA 24 10.1 13% 8% 47% 4.88 4.96 5.08 49
Luis Vargas ATL 21 17.2 17% 9% 43% 4.69 5.37 5.20 49
Chris Roycroft STL 26 11.1 15% 9% 46% 4.92 4.97 5.11 49
Taylor Floyd MIL 25 10.1 14% 8% 45% 4.96 4.93 5.11 49
Jordan Carr MIN 25 18 15% 9% 46% 4.86 5.08 5.14 49
Cy Nielson PIT 22 11 15% 9% 49% 4.75 5.12 5.10 49
Yon Castro LAD 24 21 16% 9% 41% 4.90 5.16 5.20 49
Andrew Marrero STL 23 10.2 17% 10% 43% 4.90 5.10 5.17 48
Edinson Batista HOU 21 16.2 15% 8% 45% 4.72 5.32 5.19 48
Kohl Simas CHW 23 18 17% 10% 44% 4.78 5.29 5.20 48
Franco Aleman CLE 23 12 15% 9% 43% 4.96 5.01 5.15 48
John Swanda LAA 24 22.1 13% 8% 50% 4.73 5.22 5.15 48
Luis Palacios MIA 22 14 14% 8% 44% 4.89 5.08 5.15 47
Hunter Parks CIN 22 19.2 14% 9% 46% 4.89 5.06 5.14 47
Daniel Lloyd BAL 22 15 16% 9% 45% 4.76 5.33 5.22 47
Gerald Ogando ARI 22 14 14% 9% 49% 4.81 5.11 5.13 47
Valente Bellozo HOU 23 19.1 16% 9% 46% 4.70 5.45 5.25 47
Malik Barrington MIN 25 11.2 17% 10% 43% 4.96 5.11 5.20 47
Connor Noland CHC 23 18.1 14% 9% 46% 4.90 5.09 5.16 47
Tommy Mace CLE 24 18.1 17% 10% 41% 4.95 5.19 5.24 47
Wilkel Hernandez DET 24 22.2 16% 9% 44% 4.86 5.28 5.24 46
Justin Wrobleski LAD 22 17.1 16% 9% 41% 4.92 5.19 5.23 46
Spencer Giesting ARI 21 18.1 17% 10% 48% 4.67 5.37 5.19 46
Alex Pham BAL 23 13.1 17% 10% 45% 4.77 5.40 5.25 46
Miguel Cienfuegos SDP 26 17 15% 10% 50% 4.81 5.24 5.19 45
Ryan Long BAL 23 18.1 15% 9% 43% 4.88 5.30 5.26 45
Sammy Natera Jr. LAA 23 15.2 18% 10% 46% 4.71 5.51 5.28 45
Tyler Owens ATL 22 10.1 16% 9% 42% 4.83 5.43 5.30 45
Russell Smith MIL 24 11.1 16% 10% 41% 4.97 5.24 5.28 45
Alex Williams MIA 23 16 15% 9% 42% 4.97 5.19 5.25 45
Javi Rivera CIN 23 20.2 13% 8% 47% 4.92 5.13 5.20 45
Carson Palmquist COL 22 13 18% 10% 41% 4.85 5.41 5.30 45
Gavin Collyer TEX 22 14.1 15% 9% 48% 4.72 5.45 5.25 45
Orlando Ortiz-Mayr LAD 25 17.1 15% 10% 51% 4.79 5.26 5.20 44
Thomas Farr CIN 24 25 14% 8% 40% 5.07 5.13 5.27 44
Williander Moreno DET 24 10.1 15% 9% 44% 4.98 5.19 5.25 44
Carson Rudd CIN 24 17 15% 9% 45% 4.92 5.26 5.26 44
Hunter Gregory TOR 24 13.1 15% 9% 45% 4.86 5.35 5.28 44
Carlos Betancourt PHI 22 14 14% 9% 47% 4.92 5.15 5.20 44
A.J. Blubaugh HOU 22 19 15% 9% 45% 4.79 5.46 5.30 44
Ryan Gusto HOU 24 15 16% 9% 45% 4.81 5.47 5.31 44
William Fleming KCR 24 22.2 14% 9% 45% 4.97 5.21 5.26 44
Christian Fernandez OAK 23 18.2 14% 9% 45% 4.97 5.18 5.24 43
Evan Fitterer MIA 23 15.2 16% 10% 49% 4.80 5.32 5.23 43
Zane Mills STL 22 25 12% 8% 47% 4.96 5.10 5.20 43
Listher Sosa ARI 21 14.2 12% 8% 51% 4.84 5.16 5.17 43
Yilber Diaz ARI 22 15 17% 9% 39% 4.89 5.53 5.39 43
Braxton Ashcraft PIT 23 11 14% 8% 45% 4.91 5.34 5.30 43
Avery Short ARI 22 17 13% 8% 47% 4.89 5.30 5.26 42
Ben Casparius LAD 24 23.1 15% 10% 45% 4.99 5.22 5.28 42
Ryan Bergert SDP 23 14 16% 10% 41% 5.02 5.29 5.32 42
Edgar Manzo STL 22 12.1 12% 8% 43% 5.14 4.98 5.23 42
Matt Givin MIA 24 10.2 13% 9% 43% 5.12 5.05 5.26 42
Luarbert Arias MIA 22 10.1 13% 8% 41% 5.15 5.03 5.26 42
Ben Peoples TBR 22 19.1 16% 10% 46% 4.83 5.48 5.33 42
Ryan Anderson NYY 24 12.2 12% 9% 47% 5.04 5.12 5.25 41
Jack Kochanowicz LAA 22 17.2 11% 8% 51% 4.86 5.27 5.23 41
Edgar Sanchez MIA 22 17.2 14% 9% 47% 4.93 5.30 5.29 41
Andrew Alvarez WSN 24 19.2 14% 10% 49% 4.90 5.34 5.29 41
Daniel Martinez ATL 24 10.1 16% 9% 41% 4.99 5.46 5.40 41
Jack Owen OAK 25 14.2 13% 8% 42% 5.11 5.22 5.34 41
Nelson L. Alvarez TBR 25 11.2 13% 9% 49% 4.96 5.26 5.28 40
Eric Silva SFG 20 18.2 13% 8% 46% 4.88 5.37 5.30 40

Double-A:

Top Hitters per RoboScout (min 40 plate appearances):
1. Evan Carter (TEX No. 1 prospect)
2. Tyler Black (MIL No. 8 prospect)
3. Luis Matos (SFG No. 5 prospect)
4. Owen Caissie (CHC No. 13 prospect)
5. Jasson Dominguez (NYY No. 3 prospect)
6. Edgar Quero (LAA No. 4 prospect)
7. Henry Davis (PIT No. 3 prospect)
8. Nick Yorke (BOS No. 7 prospect)
9. Jorbit Vivas (LAD No. 20 prospect)
10. Hunter Goodman (COL No. 14 prospect)

Honorable Mentions: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC No. 1 prospect), Jackson Chourio (MIL No. 1 prospect), Ethan Wilson (PHI No. 9 prospect)

Black continues to be a breakout revelation for Biloxi, though be aware that he has the lowest contact rate and the lowest 90th percentile exit velocity of any of the top 20 RoboScout names at Double-A. He does, however, make excellent swing decisions and seemingly has optimized his swing path, hitting balls in the ideal launch angle at frequency that is better-than-average.

The biggest mover this week was Goodman, who delivered three bombs over 20 plate appearances with a .368/.400/.947 slash line. After being recognized in mid-April as impressing early in the season, Goodman had slowed down at the plate for a few weeks before exploding again last week. The slugger has always had massive power—with a 90th percentile exit velocity in the top 10 of hitters in Double-A—but it’s the swing decisions that have impressed, chasing significantly less than last year, and he has the second-highest contact rate of any of the Double-A hitters who have a 90th percentile exit velocity over 108 mph. He will likely end up in left field and should find himself in Triple-A Albuquerque before too long.

Top Pitchers per RoboScout (min 10 innings pitched):
1 Andrew Abbott (CIN No. 11 prospect)
2 Cristian Mena (CHW No. 6 prospect)
3 Ricky Tiedemann (TOR No. 1 prospect)
4 Emmett Sheehan (LAD No. 13 prospect)
5 Kai-Wei Teng (SFG unranked)
6 Mike Vasil (NYM No. 12 prospect)
7 Eury Perez (MIA No. 1 prospect)
8 Will Warren (NYY No. 7 prospect)
9 Ben Brown (CHC No. 6 prospect)
10 Coleman Crow (LAA No. 21 prospect)

There are two names that I want to deep-dive into this week: Crow and Warren.

The first thing that may jump out at you with Crow is that he is pitching in the Southern League—and with an IVB that has jumped from 12 inches in 2022 to 19 inches in 2023, it seems like the pre-tacked ball has had an inordinate influence on his early season success. I don’t disagree that the results need to be seen through that lens, however, it is extremely unlikely that sticky stuff would have that much influence on his pitches. He must have also made mechanical changes to achieve those gains. Looking deeper, we can see that his four-seam velocity has increased by about 1.5 mph from last year while releasing his pitches from an even lower slot (at just below 5-foot-2-inches). This low release slot, paired with the dramatically increased IVB has led to an incredibly flat -3.9 VAA (up from last year’s -4.7 VAA). We’ll keep an eye on that after he gets promoted to Triple-A but to me these are substantive gains that can’t just be attributed to the ball. The curveball has elite spin (and would be top 10 in MLB for a curveball) with sweep that exceeds the horizontal movement of nearly all major league curveballs. I’m hesitant to put a double-plus handle on that without seeing how it behaves in Triple-A, but it’s downright nasty. I find it hard to believe that his step forward this year is only pre-tack related. Add in the fact that Crow has seen 25 and 27 batters, respectively in his last two starts (ie. three times through the order), and the recipe to be a major league starter is starting to fall into place. I’m interested.

As much as I’m fawning over Crow’s results and stuff, I’m also incredibly intrigued by Warren. This year Warren has added 1.5 mph to his bread-and-butter slider and it (still) achieves over 15 inches of horizontal break on it, in large part due to his high spin rate (which would be the fifth-highest spin rate of any slider in the major leagues). Major league sliders with that sort of horizontal break do not usually have velocity that high. In fact, there are only a few that cluster in that “velocity” vs “horizontal sweep” zone (with Slider Stuff+, per Fangraphs, in parentheses): Drew Rasmussen (120), McKinley Moore (139), Kaleb Ort (118), Sonny Gray (123) and Shohei Ohtani (144).

HIs slider is by no means his only weapon. His four-seam fastball sits 94 mph (touching 96 mph) and has befuddled hitters. He also has a curveball that (also) has over 15 inches of horizontal sweep. If he can continue improving his command and continue working on cleaning up his delivery, he could potentially be a starter for the Yankees. At the very least, Warren should be able to be an effective Matt Brash-type reliever.

Double-A Hitters
Min 40 PA Peak Projection 600PA
Name Team Age PA BB% K% xBA xOBP wRC+ HR SB Robo
Evan Carter TEX 20 112 15% 15% .265 .352 107 19 9 100
Tyler Black MIL 22 94 14% 16% .257 .341 100 19 31 99
Luis Matos SFG 21 97 11% 11% .269 .341 101 13 13 90
Owen Caissie CHC 20 96 12% 31% .230 .315 108 22 6 88
Jasson Dominguez NYY 20 88 16% 22% .244 .337 98 17 22 88
Edgar Quero LAA 20 88 15% 18% .256 .344 105 12 2 87
Henry Davis PIT 23 87 12% 21% .245 .324 100 24 13 86
Nick Yorke BOS 21 94 12% 20% .250 .329 103 18 8 85
Jorbit Vivas LAD 22 111 9% 16% .257 .324 101 16 7 85
Hunter Goodman COL 23 99 9% 23% .244 .315 104 27 2 85
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC 21 83 6% 18% .248 .306 95 17 21 79
Jackson Chourio MIL 19 114 8% 19% .250 .316 99 19 15 79
Ethan Wilson PHI 23 54 7% 18% .251 .312 99 22 6 79
Bladimir Restituyo COL 21 87 5% 18% .252 .308 100 18 15 78
Joey Loperfido HOU 24 58 12% 22% .240 .319 94 18 16 78
Colt Keith DET 21 113 7% 19% .249 .314 100 19 2 75
Coby Mayo BAL 21 96 10% 20% .247 .321 98 16 2 75
Kyren Paris LAA 21 112 12% 27% .230 .311 97 20 12 75
Heston Kjerstad BAL 24 98 7% 19% .247 .309 97 22 8 74
Matt Rudick NYM 24 81 12% 18% .246 .324 92 13 11 73
Noelvi Marte CIN 21 106 9% 18% .246 .314 93 19 13 72
Corey Rosier BOS 23 70 6% 21% .237 .297 89 14 31 70
Andy Pages LAD 22 108 12% 23% .234 .314 89 12 14 69
Jonny DeLuca LAD 24 108 7% 21% .240 .301 90 22 14 68
Nasim Nunez MIA 22 116 13% 19% .238 .318 86 12 25 68
Jordan Lawlar ARI 20 100 12% 26% .228 .308 89 18 17 68
Darell Hernaiz OAK 21 85 8% 19% .243 .306 91 16 13 68
Luisangel Acuna TEX 21 124 8% 20% .240 .303 89 11 23 67
Mason Martin PIT 24 70 14% 27% .225 .313 89 16 10 66
Jeferson Quero MIL 20 58 8% 24% .236 .302 94 20 6 66
Victor Mesa Jr. MIA 21 105 7% 27% .230 .296 95 14 6 65
Jose Ramos LAD 22 98 9% 24% .231 .299 90 21 10 64
Cesar Prieto BAL 24 100 6% 11% .259 .314 89 11 8 64
Max Burt NYY 26 68 7% 27% .226 .292 90 17 17 64
Drew Millas WSN 25 62 11% 22% .238 .311 90 13 6 64
Wenceel Perez DET 23 81 9% 20% .239 .305 88 14 11 64
David Calabrese LAA 20 91 10% 27% .227 .301 92 18 4 63
Liover Peguero PIT 22 89 9% 19% .239 .308 86 12 20 63
Shay Whitcomb HOU 24 99 6% 23% .233 .292 87 22 10 62
Damiano Palmegiani TOR 23 92 14% 23% .233 .317 88 13 4 62
Zach Britton TOR 24 45 13% 24% .230 .311 86 12 13 62
Tyler Fitzgerald SFG 25 78 8% 28% .224 .294 92 12 9 61
Johan Rojas PHI 22 109 8% 17% .245 .306 87 11 14 61
Pablo Aliendo CHC 22 51 8% 25% .231 .300 91 18 3 61
Aaron Bracho CLE 22 52 9% 27% .224 .295 88 23 3 61
Brooks Lee MIN 22 105 8% 18% .243 .306 88 12 6 61
Cody Milligan ATL 24 60 10% 30% .219 .294 89 11 16 61
Zac Veen COL 21 65 10% 21% .235 .305 86 14 18 61
Petey Halpin CLE 21 87 9% 24% .232 .301 90 16 7 60
Javier Valdes ATL 24 59 7% 22% .235 .299 90 21 3 60
BJ Murray Jr. CHC 23 106 12% 23% .232 .309 86 13 7 60
Trey Sweeney NYY 23 90 10% 22% .234 .305 85 10 12 60
Steward Berroa TOR 24 73 11% 25% .225 .300 83 13 23 60
Miguel Amaya CHC 24 56 9% 29% .221 .294 89 18 6 60
Carlos De La Cruz PHI 23 101 7% 26% .230 .295 92 18 2 60
Noah Campbell MIL 24 67 13% 26% .227 .309 88 15 3 59
Orlando Martinez LAA 25 97 5% 25% .232 .289 91 15 4 59
Luis Vazquez CHC 23 85 6% 27% .226 .288 89 19 5 58
Lawrence Butler OAK 22 107 8% 22% .232 .295 84 11 16 58
Ryan Bliss ARI 23 103 5% 22% .232 .287 84 12 16 58
Dustin Harris TEX 23 110 13% 28% .217 .299 82 11 19 57
Gage Workman DET 23 61 11% 27% .223 .299 88 15 8 57
Julio Carreras COL 23 56 8% 23% .230 .297 86 15 11 57
Patrick Bailey SFG 24 60 8% 23% .230 .296 86 14 8 57
Brett Harris OAK 25 103 9% 17% .243 .309 85 11 9 56
Troy Johnston MIA 26 100 8% 22% .234 .300 86 16 6 56
Angel Martinez CLE 21 103 10% 24% .230 .300 86 18 8 56
Quincy McAfee CIN 25 66 10% 23% .232 .303 86 12 3 56
Eric Wagaman NYY 25 43 6% 23% .228 .285 80 14 26 56
Colin Barber HOU 22 73 11% 26% .225 .302 86 14 3 56
Freddy Zamora MIL 24 71 10% 23% .229 .300 82 17 10 55
Grant Lavigne COL 23 90 10% 26% .225 .298 88 15 4 55
A.J. Vukovich ARI 21 94 8% 25% .227 .292 85 16 10 55
Juan Fernandez SDP 24 53 9% 23% .231 .300 86 9 6 54
Cooper Bowman OAK 23 92 9% 24% .223 .291 76 13 31 54
Robbie Tenerowicz SEA 28 106 8% 24% .232 .298 89 19 4 54
Everson Pereira NYY 22 76 8% 29% .219 .287 86 12 9 53
Gabriel Rodriguez CLE 21 81 11% 22% .232 .308 84 14 5 53
Hayden Cantrelle SFG 24 76 10% 19% .236 .304 81 8 12 53
Imanol Vargas LAD 25 83 12% 28% .220 .298 85 18 3 53
Jose Alvarez STL 23 70