Samuel Basallo, Carson McCusker Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (May 19)
Image credit: Samuel Basallo (Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images)
Every Monday morning, we’ll highlight 10 players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. Data will usually be through Saturday of that week, but may include some data from Sunday games. These are not full scouting reports, but often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last week, we did a deep dive on what makes Andrew Painter so special and dug into Jacob Misiorowski‘s rise. This week we’ll discuss:
- Samuel Basallo’s ability to barrel pitches at the top and bottom of the zone
- Carson McCusker is going to surprise a lot of people
- Bryce Rainer vs. Konnor Griffin
- Hao-Yu Lee vs. Marcelo Mayer is closer than you think
- A breakout prospect from Uganda
- A pitcher who debuted for the Royals over a decade ago
- A Reds prospect with huge power potential
- A Guardians hitter maximizing his tools
10 Statcast Standouts
Samuel Basallo, C, Orioles
We wrote this about Basallo more than four years ago, long before his breakout:
So how does our 2021 report hold up in 2025 now that Basallo is on the cusp of the majors and cruising with a 128 wRC+ as a 20-year-old in Triple-A?
Pretty, pretty good:
Four hundred pitches is a robust sample and one in which we can have a great deal of confidence in the metrics we see. We wrote that Basallo might have plus-plus (i.e. 70 grade) power. Let’s see how that looks based on his metrics:
- 90th percentile exit velocity of 108.3 mph maps to 70-grade raw power
- 116 mph maximum exit velocity maps to 75-grade raw power.
- 93 mph average exit velocity maps to 70-grade raw power.
Air EV, which is is the average exit velocity on balls hit at a 20-degree launch angle or higher, is a metric that captures how much game power a player has. Basallo’s 94.6 mph average is a true 80-grade tool. One of the key performance indicators with power hitters rests on whether they make their best contact on the ground or in the air.
To assess that, I generally like to look at these two comparisons:
- Average EV vs. Air EV
- Average launch angle vs. Hard-hit launch angle
When we see Air EV substantially higher than average, it suggests a player is making better contact when they get the ball in the air. Similarly, If a player’s hard-hit launch angle is higher than his average launch angle, it means when a player makes their best contact, they are getting the ball in the air. Often, comparing these metrics can be quite instructive in player eval.
What does this mean for Basallo? We see that when Basallo makes weaker contact, his balls are more ground-ball oriented. However, when he makes his hardest contact, he elevates and celebrates. That strongly suggests he has a swing optimized for hard contact in the air, the tried-and-true formula for hitting lots of home runs.
Basallo might have already blown past our 2021 projection, with present 70 to 75 power—that might touch 80—if he can continue to mash balls in the air against major league pitching.
What makes Basallo truly exciting is not the raw power metrics, however—it’s his precocious bat-to-ball ability and zone coverage. Let’s show you what that looks like with a chart that splits pitches into either a ball hit into play or a whiff:
Let’s begin with sliders. Above, you’ll see a suite of metrics for Basallo vs. sliders showing a 91% zone contact along with plus swing decisions and a .900 slugging on contact on sliders in the zone. Those are great metrics, but they undersell just how successful he is against sliders, often the biggest swing-and-miss weapon a pitcher has.
A well-located slider is usually one at the very bottom of the zone. In the chart, we see three gold bubbles representing hard-hit contact, including a home run at 104 mph at the very bottom of the zone. We also see a gold bubble down and in to Basallo that resulted in a 94 mph exit velocity at 56 degrees. It takes pure, raw talent to be able to do that. This means that a pitcher can execute a slider perfectly, and Basallo might still crush it for a home run. We see four bad chases on sliders low and away, but his overall chase rate is still quite low against sliders, suggesting room for growth. Basallo’s ability to barrel up sliders in locations that are ideal from a pitcher’s standpoint is arguably the most exciting aspect of his profile.
For a player to succeed in the majors, he needs to be able hit four-seam fastballs and not have an exploitable zone. Basallo shows the incredibly rare ability to make hard contact in the air on both pitches at the bottom of the zone and the very top of the zone. He does show a slight propensity to chase pitches well above the zone, especially with two strikes, but that should come down as he accumulates more experience. He is, after all, only 20 years old.
Sometimes, I’ll dig deeper on a player and find some flaws. With Basallo, I’m blown away by how freakishly talented the kid is. However good you think Basallo is, he’s probably better.
Carson McCusker, OF, Twins
The Twins plucked McCusker out of independent ball and have developed him into a major league hitter:
McCusker has a lot of swing-and-miss against fastballs, both in the zone and out. That may lead you to dismiss him as a player with no shot at succeeding in the majors. About that:
If a pitcher successfully gets the ball above the zone, McCusker will whiff a lot, but he still make a lot of really good contact when he gets it in play. However, any time a pitcher fails to get their fastball above the middle of the zone, McCusker turns into an absolute monster, crushing baseballs with almost no whiffs. That makes the game plan simple on the surface: throw him lots of fastballs at the top of the zone, but don’t miss.
The reason this bodes well for McCusker is that he doesn’t chase the non-fastballs, resulting in solid gold chase rates in the chart above. That forces pitchers to challenge him with the fastball. Baseball is a numbers game, and no matter how good the pitchers are, even the best command artists miss their locations. Over time, he’ll get enough fastballs that he can handle, and his power metrics are right up there with the very best power hitters in all of baseball.
He’ll whiff a lot, but he more than makes up for it with his damage on contact. The valleys will be deep, but the hills will be spectacular. Patience is the key with a batter like this. When it comes together, it will be a lot of fun.
David Matoma, RHP, Pirates
Baseball is very much a global sport, and it is heavily concentrated in the Americas, as well as Japan and South Korea. It’s rare when we get a true prospect from Africa, so we’re very intrigued by Matoma, who was signed out of Uganda in 2023. Since Geoff Pontes’ early report last year, Matoma has grown into even more velocity, topping out at 99.9 mph and holding 96 mph. It’s still largely a two-pitch mix with the four-seam fastball and gyro slider.
The shape on the fastball is roughly average, and he doesn’t have the ability to spin the ball, so he’ll struggle to develop a wide arsenal, but he might have success with a splitter. Right now, this is looking like a bullpen profile, but even that outcome would do wonders for inspiring future ballers on the African continent.
Wilking Rodriguez, RHP, Yankees
Rodriguez first debuted for the Royals over a decade ago, pitching two scoreless innings. Since then, it’s been a long and winding road that featured a PED suspension, playing professionally in Venezuela and Mexico, finding his way back to affiliated ball, a shoulder surgery, and, finally, slinging some top-level stuff in Triple-A for the Yankees.
On the season, Rodriguez’ fastball has been roughly average with good velocity but poor shape. However, he also flashed the ability to do this:
If he can get to that kind of velocity, his cutter will play up and be a whiff machine. He also mixes in a true gyro slider and hard curveball with great depth.
Tyson Lewis, SS, Reds
Through Saturday, we have four tracked batted-ball events for Lewis ranging from 97.7 mph to 119.4 mph. There are maybe a handful of humans who can hit a ball as hard as 119.4 mph in a game situation. This is coming against pitching vastly inferior to what Lewis will face in full-season ball, but he’s showing he has elite power potential and will be a very interesting name to follow.
C.J. Kayfus, 1B, Guardians
Kayfus is an extreme example of a player who makes considerably better contact when he gets the ball in the air, as evidenced by both a seven mph boost for his flyball exit velocities and a seven degree increase in average launch angle on his hard-hit balls. While his raw power is probably below-average, his high-level decision making, along with his extremely optimized contact, will make him outperform his tools. It’s not a surprise he’s surging up BA’s Top 100 Prospects list.
Hao-Yu Lee, SS, Tigers
Lee is really underperforming his metrics in Triple-A so far, sitting about league average. Do not be fooled by the surface level slash line, however, as Lee is a really good hitter who is hitting the ball much harder than he ever has while maintaining his contact skills. We’re talking 60-grade power with 50 hit for a player who can play short but is more likely to stick at second base. If he were a true shortstop, I’d call him lock for a Top 100 spot, but even as a second baseman, the power metrics he’s showing might be enough to push him there. His metrics compare favorably to Marcelo Mayer, who we’ll look at next.
Marcelo Mayer, SS, Red Sox
Mayer has the edge on Lee on defensive utility, which is a big factor in his valuation. He also makes better swing decisions overall, as well as more contact when he chases. However, Lee is now hitting the ball harder than Mayer across most power metrics. Their in-game power should be close to equivalent due to Mayer’s more optimized launch angles, though.
Mayer is universally regarded as a top 15 prospect, or better. Lee’s metrics are roughly equal to Mayer’s on the offensive side of the ball, suggesting he’s made a huge leap.
Konnor Griffin, SS, Pirates vs. Bryce Rainer, SS, Tigers
If you’ve read my weekly series, you’ll know that I often like to leave a superstar for the very end of the piece as a bonus for those who read the entire article. Today, I’m going to tease something I’ve been ruminating on doing for a while: a deep dive comparing Griffin and Rainer, both of whom are exceeding expectations.
Where Griffin shines:
- Much better contact when he chases, which suggests more natural hitting ability than Rainer.
- More contact in and out of the zone.
- Griffin is performing better overall.
Where Rainer shines:
- Elite swing decisions. Rainer picks his pitches to attack very well, which becomes increasingly important as you move up the ladder. Griffin is no slouch here, but Rainer has the clear edge.
- Rainer’s power is likely a full grade better than Griffin’s, which might be partly due to his superior swing decisions.
- Rainer’s average exit velocity on fly balls is significantly higher than Griffin’s.
So which player would I prefer, solely as a hitter? At this point, I’m leaning Rainer, but it’s very close. It’s extremely rare to have such a consistent exit velocity profile and, when combined with such a disciplined approach, it’s very much a Jackson Holliday-type of profile, but with significantly more power.
