Chicago Cubs Breakout MLB Prospects Entering 2024

Breakout Prospects

Michael Arias, RHP

Preseason rank: 18
BA Grade: 50. Risk: Extreme.

Track Record: The Blue Jays signed Arias as a shortstop for $10,000 out of the Dominican Republic in 2018, but they released him before he ever played a professional game. The Cubs signed him in 2021, converted him to pitching and watched him flourish. Arias played his first full season in 2023 across the Class A levels and logged a 4.09 ERA in 22 starts while flashing some of the best stuff in the organization. He struck out 110 batters in only 81.1 innings and started a combined no-hitter on July 6.

Scouting Report: Arias is a lean, athletic righthander with tremendous arm strength. His two-seam fastball sits 95-96 mph and touches 98 with heavy sink out of a low arm slot and release point. Hitters struggle to square his fastball up with its velocity and movement, and it has a chance to be a plus-plus pitch as Arias gets stronger and throws even harder. Arias complements his two-seamer with an above-average, 87-90 mph changeup with late dive that he sells well to get swings and misses. His third pitch is an 83-86 mph, short slider that plays against righthanded hitters and has above-average potential. Arias keeps the ball on the ground and overwhelms hitters when he throws strikes, but his control is below-average and his arm slot creates concern about the long-term health of his elbow.

The Future: Arias is still relatively new to pitching and could improve his control enough to remain a starter. If not, he has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever.

Scouting Grades
Fastball: 70. Slider: 55. Changeup: 55. Control: 40.

---

Drew Gray, LHP

Preseason rank: 20
BA Grade: 50. Risk: Extreme.

Track Record: Gray starred at Belleville East (Swansea, Ill.) High before transferring to IMG Academy, where his teammates included fellow Cubs pitching prospect Jackson Ferris. Gray excelled as both a hitter and pitcher at the premier program and was drafted by the Cubs in the third round as a pitcher, signing for an over-slot $900,000 bonus. Gray’s first full season was delayed when he had Tommy John surgery during 2022 spring training, but he returned midway through the 2023 season and showed loud stuff in short bursts at Low-A Myrtle Beach.

Scouting Report: Gray is a lean, athletic lefthander who oozes potential. His high-spin fastball sits 91-93 mph with late carry at the top of the strike zone and plays up with the angle he generates from his low, three-quarters arm slot. He has a natural feel to spin a 77-79 mph, downer curveball and a sweeping, low-80s slider that both flash above-average. He also has a below-average, 85-88 mph changeup he rarely throws. Gray has plenty of room to add weight and strength to his frame and should add velocity as he fills out. He repeats his delivery well but occasionally falls out of sync and loses his release point, leading to fringy control. He has yet to throw more than three innings in a start and must improve his durability.

The Future: Gray requires lots of projection, but he has a chance to be a midrotation starter if he makes the necessary strength gains. He’s a breakout candidate in 2024.

Scouting Grades
Fastball: 55. Curveball: 55. Slider: 55. Changeup: 40. Control: 45.