2026 NCAA Baseball Tournament Bracket: Projected Field Of 64 (April 21)

Welcome to Baseball America’s latest in-season projection of the 2026 college baseball NCAA Tournament bracket.

In the past, BA utilized our College Baseball Top 25 rankings to determine a projected national seed order. In an effort to avoid large swings, though, this year we are leaning on projection to determine what the field could look like on Selection Monday, rather than present a live snapshot of the current hierarchy.

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Additionally, we are now showing our work on the two-seed line due to the NCAA selection committee’s updated seeding format. Beginning this season, the committee will rank the top 32 teams, not just the 16 regional hosts. Seeds 17-32 will be slotted into regionals based on that ranking: teams 29-32 will be paired with the top four national seeds, 25-28 with seeds 5-8, 21-24 with seeds 9-12 and 17-20 with seeds 13-16. The projected bracket below is designed to reflect how that structure will work, even if the committee ultimately does not make its full two-seed rankings public. 

The SEC continues to lead our latest projection with 12 total bids followed by the ACC (8), Big 12 (7), Big Ten (4), Sun Belt (4), Conference USA (3) and the American (3). 

Before we get into the latest bracketology, here’s a breakdown of recent results that had postseason implications and factored heavily into our latest bracket. You can also jump right to the new Field of 64 by clicking here.

Some Shifting At The Back Of the Host Line

There wasn’t much movement at the top of the projection this week, as results across the country largely aligned with expectations.

Most of the meaningful change came at the back of the host line. USC (No. 13 national seed in our April 15 projection), Virginia (No. 15) and West Virginia (No. 16) all dropped out, with Oklahoma, Nebraska and Mississippi State moving in. Here’s why:

• USC and Nebraska met head-to-head in Lincoln, and the Trojans didn’t survive the collision. Nebraska outscored USC 36-15 over the series and secured run-rule wins in Games 2 and 3 to complete the sweep. USC’s RPI remains strong, but its 0-8 record in Quad I games is difficult to overcome. Nebraska, meanwhile, is 9-6 in Quad I matchups and has just three Big Ten losses compared to USC’s eight.

• Virginia won its weekend series against Clemson but dropped a midweek game to VCU and is just 4-6 over its last 10 games. Its RPI fell to No. 19 after Week 10, putting it on the wrong side of the host line with a schedule that leans heavily toward Quad III and IV opportunities the rest of the way.

• West Virginia’s RPI dropped to No. 28 as of April 20, a number that becomes increasingly difficult to overlook despite strong overall and conference win totals. TCU finished conference tournament play with a top 20 RPI last year, and the Big 12 still did not place a team on the host line, a precedent that looms with an RPI number approaching 30.

• Oklahoma and Mississippi State are coming off winning weekends and now sit inside the top 20 in RPI. Neither has cracked the top 16 yet, but history suggests 16 SEC wins can be enough to push into a national seed position given the league’s strength. With several comparable cases, we leaned toward the SEC, which is consistent with how the committee has historically evaluated those profiles.

Arizona State Survives Big Quad I Series In Provo

Two months ago, it would have sounded unlikely that Arizona State at BYU would carry significant Quad I weight for both sides. But that’s exactly what it became.

Arizona State entered the weekend coming off an RPI slide following a midweek loss to rival Arizona in a Quad IV result. BYU, meanwhile, had played its way into a strong RPI position. The Sun Devils responded by taking the series, outscoring the Cougars 12-1 after the third inning of the finale to erase an early 7-0 deficit.

The win pushed Arizona State back into the top 40 in RPI, enough for us to move it back onto the two-seed line after sitting as a high three last week.

The remaining schedule will continue to shape that profile. Arizona State still has series against Baylor, UCF, Oklahoma State and Houston, with all but the finale carrying significant postseason implications for both sides.

Cruisin’ Conference USA

If there’s one mid-major league outside the Sun Belt we feel confident about sending at least three teams to the field, it’s Conference USA. There was even internal discussion this week about whether one of its teams belongs on the host line.

We placed Liberty, Missouri State and Jacksonville State in the field, all as projected two-seeds, with Liberty and Missouri State in the upper tier of that group. If the season ended today, Missouri State would have a case to host, but our projection has all three landing on the two line barring movement from power conference teams like Mississippi State, Nebraska or Oklahoma, which would need to stumble in a meaningful way to finish with a host resume that falls short of a Conference USA representative.

In other words, it’s far from impossible, just not the most likely outcome.

NC State Is The Last Team In

It didn’t feel like a death sentence at the time, given that the skid included six losses to Florida State and Georgia Tech—both very likely hosts—but NC State’s seven-game losing streak in late March raised clear concerns about its postseason trajectory. 

It answered with seven wins in its next eight games, but gave much of that back in Week 10 when it dropped two of three at Wake Forest, including losses by a combined 40-8 in the first two games.

At 26-14 overall and 9-9 in the ACC, NC State owns the No. 49 RPI. Its remaining schedule is demanding, with series at Virginia Tech, at home against a surging Miami team, on the road at Stanford and a final weekend against No. 2 North Carolina.

With key righthander Jacob Dudan sidelined by a UCL tear, the Wolfpack appears headed for a tight battle to secure its tournament spot through Selection Monday.

Sun Belt Teams Fighting For At-Large Berths

The Sun Belt powers at the top are just that. At 15-3 in conference play with a top 15 RPI and the impending return of ace Cameron Flukey, Coastal Carolina looks like a strong bet to host, with a real chance to push into the top eight national seeds.

Southern Miss sits on the hosting bubble at 11-7 in Sun Belt play, but if that trajectory continues, it has a clear path into the top 16.

Beyond that is a cluster of mixed resumes. As of April 20, Texas State and Arkansas State sit No. 36 and No. 37 in RPI, respectively, but are 9-9 in conference play. That’s the same mark as UL Monroe (No. 145) and Marshall (No. 139), and one game behind South Alabama (No. 80), App State (No. 108) and Troy (No. 60).

BA projects Arkansas State and Texas State into the field, with the latter among the last four in. Troy sits just outside the next four out.

LSU Out Of The Picture, Vanderbilt Hanging On

It’s becoming increasingly difficult to envision LSU in this year’s postseason, a surprising turn after the Tigers opened the season ranked No. 2 in the Baseball America Top 25, with some arguing they should have been No. 1 following their second championship in three years.

Recent history suggests the selection committee is willing to show leniency toward SEC teams. Programs that go 13-17 in conference play have made the field comfortably, and last year no SEC team landed in the Last Four In. In 2024, Florida reached the postseason just one game above .500 overall.

LSU, though, lacks the same resume strength as some of those past teams. The Tigers are 23-18 overall, 6-12 in SEC play and sit at No. 67 in RPI. While series at Mississippi State and Georgia, along with a home set against Florida, offer a path to improve the profile, recent performance doesn’t suggest they will stack enough wins in those matchups.

Vanderbilt, despite trailing LSU in RPI, is in a better position. The Commodores are 9-9 in SEC play, which is a more manageable mark entering the final four weekends. In practical terms, they likely need 4-5 more conference wins to enter serious at-large consideration—an attainable total with Missouri and South Carolina remaining. Series against Texas and Alabama also present opportunities for significant resume gains.

An Eye-Catching Schedule Change For An Intriguing Bubble Team

There’s a strong argument that Michigan (No. 42 RPI) should already be in the field rather than sitting as the first team out. At 2-7 in Quad I games and 6-10 across Quad I and II combined, we opted to give the Wolverines one more week.

A schedule change could help things change fast. Michigan was originally set to face Dayton, a Quad IV opponent, but will instead travel to Oxford, Ohio, to take on Miami (OH), the MAC’s hottest team. The matchup currently qualifies as a Quad I opportunity, though it could settle as Quad II.

Either way, it gives Michigan a chance to add a meaningful result to its profile and potentially move quickly onto the right side of the bubble.