2023 Trade Deadline Live Blog
Image credit: Justin Verlander (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
We’re going to cover all the twists and turns of the 2023 Trade Deadline with analysis, news and notes as well as links to our stories. And when the dust clears, we’re going to livestream at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT to do a quick analysis of what we think about all of today’s moves.
Aug. 1, 8:30 p.m. (ET): Signing Off For Tonight
We wrote up 15 trades today. If you missed any of our analysis pieces, here they are:
Aug. 1—Dodgers Acquire Ryan Yarbrough From Royals For Prospects Devin Mann, Derlin Figueroa
Aug. 1—Marlins Add Ryan Weathers From Padres For Garrett Cooper, Sean Reynolds
Aug. 1—Cardinals Land Cesar Prieto, Drew Rom, Zach Showalter As Orioles Bolster Rotation With Jack Flaherty
Aug. 1—Marlins Acquire Josh Bell From Guardians In Exchange For Kahlil Watson
Aug. 1—Angels Add To Bullpen, Acquire Dominic Leone From Mets For Prospect Jeremiah Jackson
Aug. 1—Yankees Acquire Keynan Middleton From White Sox For Juan Carela
Aug. 1—Dodgers Acquire Ryan Yarbrough From Royals For Prospects Devin Mann, Derlin Figueroa
Aug. 1—Marlins Add Ryan Weathers From Padres For Garrett Cooper, Sean Reynolds
Aug. 1—Cardinals Land Cesar Prieto, Drew Rom, Zach Showalter As Orioles Bolster Rotation With Jack Flaherty
Aug. 1—Marlins Acquire Josh Bell From Guardians In Exchange For Kahlil Watson
Aug. 1—Angels Add To Bullpen, Acquire Dominic Leone From Mets For Prospect Jeremiah Jackson
Aug. 1—Yankees Acquire Keynan Middleton From White Sox For Juan Carela
Here’s our 30-minute Trade Deadline Wrapup. Thanks to everyone for celebrating Trade Deadline day with us.
Aug. 1, 8 p.m. (ET): We’re Live
Aug. 1, 6:30 p.m. (ET): Our Analyses Keep On Rolling
Here’s the writeup on the Mets-D’backs trade that sends Tommy Pham to Arizona and a top 2023 international signee to New York.
And here’s our look at the Angels-Mets deal.
Aug 1, 6:15 p.m. (ET): The Angels And Mets Get Together
Billy Eppler made a trade with his old team, as the Angels acquired reliever Dominic Leone for infielder Jeremiah Jackson, the No. 18 prospect on the recently updated Angels Top 30.
We also have the return now for Kenyan Middleton.
And the Padres shipped a one-time first-round pick to the Marlins.
Aug. 1, 6:02 p.m. (ET): The Cardinals’ Return For Jack Flaherty.
In the move sending righthander Jack Flaherty to the Orioles, St. Louis receives infielder Cesar Prieto and lefthander Drew Rom in return.
Prieto ranked as the Orioles’ No. 14 prospect and Rom ranked 16th on our updated Orioles Top 30, but these were prospects the Orioles could afford to give up. With Gunnar Henderson, Jorge Mateo, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Joey Ortiz, Connor Norby and Coby Mayo as other infield options, Prieto had a whole lot of infielders between him and an MLB job. Similarly, Rom could develop into a back-of-the-rotation starter, but he has 50 starts in Double-A and Triple-A already.
Aug. 1 6:01 p.m. (ET): Officially, The Deadline Has Passed
But we may not know of every move yet. Teams are required to submit their trades to MLB by 6 p.m. ET. Sometimes we do not learn of the moves until several minutes after the trade deadline.
Aug. 1 5:57 p.m. (ET): The Yankees Join In The Fun
I don’t know if this will be enough to satiate Yankees fans, but New York is making a deadline deal to acquire White Sox RHP Kenyan Middleton.
Aug. 1 5:55 p.m. (ET): The Return For Tommy Pham
We’ll have a full trade analysis up on the Pham-Rodriguez trade before long, but to make sure you’re covered until then, here’s our look at Rodriguez when he topped the D-backs International Signing Review this year.
Aug 1 5:51 p.m. (ET): Something Else To Keep An Eye On
Aug 1 5:46 p.m. (ET): The D-backs Add An Outfielder
Aug 1 5:41 p.m. (ET): A Tasty Burger Swap
Our Josh Norris has written up the White Sox-Marlins trade that saw Miami add a power bat, while Chicago landed a lefthander who could fit into their big league plans before long.
Aug. 1 5:38 p.m. (ET): The Moves Are Getting Smaller
Now we have a trade of a Triple-A non-40-man reliever for a Triple-A non-40-man catcher.
Thanks to Durham Bulls play-by-play broadcaster Patrick Kinas, we actually have video of McKendry finding out he was being traded.’
Aug 1 5:35 p.m. (ET) And Another Minor Trade
The Rangers have added catching depth, which helps them as Jonah Heim recovers from a significant wrist injury. Picking up Austin Hedges also clears space in Pittsburgh for the Pirates to give Henry Davis a chance to catch. So far, Davis has caught just two innings in Pittsburgh.
Aug 1 5:28 p.m. (ET): Rays Send Patino To White Sox For Cash
This is another trade we won’t do a writeup for, but to clear roster space, the Rays have sent righthander Luis Patino to the White Sox in exchange for cash considerations. This is a sign of how far Patino’s star has fallen in recent years. Patino was a key part of the return in the Blake Snell trade. He earned a spot in the Rays’ rotation in 2021, but he has been exceptionally hittable this year. His velocity remains solid (93-95 mph), but his fastball has gotten destroyed this year (.326/.441/.621 at Triple-A). He will be a reclamation project for the White Sox.
Aug 1 5:25 p.m. (ET): Analyzing The Astros Move With Foul Territory
If you want to get more of our thoughts on what’s been today’s biggest move, here’s a clip where JJ Cooper discussed it with Foul Territory.
Aug 1 4:43 p.m. (ET): The Storm Breaks
The Marlins are adding another bat in a trade with the White Sox.
The return is lefthander Jake Eder.
Eder ranked as the Marlins’ No. 2 prospect, so that’s a significant get for the White Sox.
JJ Cooper Instant Analysis: The Marlins are proving to be one of the more aggressive teams in the National League when it comes to making solid moves to upgrade a team in need of lineup help. Burger is the opposite of the Marlins’ general emphasis on high-contact hitters, but he immediately becomes one of the team’s best power threats. The White Sox add a pitcher who is still working back from Tommy John surgery, but at his best he could step into Chicago’s rotation next season.
Aug 1 4:40 p.m. (ET): The Calm Before The Storm?
With so many moves already in the books, it will be interesting to see who still gets moved. But we’re now an hour since the last major move, with only 80 minutes until the trade deadline. With Eduardo Rodriguez, Jack Flaherty and maybe Dylan Cease still available, there is remaining starting pitching. The likely available impact bats are fewer in number.
Aug 1 4:36 p.m. (ET): What A Difference A Year Makes
A year ago, Trey Mancini was a significant trade deadline acquisition by the Astros. Today, he was designated for assignment by the Cubs.
Aug 1 4:28 p.m. (ET): Some Prospect News Today As Well
Jordyn Adams, the Angels’ first-round pick in 2018, is now a big leaguer.
Aug 1 4:21 p.m. (ET): Will The Yankees Come Out And Play?
So far, the New York Yankees have been quiet at the trade deadline. There still are a little over 90 minutes to change that.
Aug 1 4:11 p.m. (ET): The Brewers Get Busy
No word yet on the return, but the Brewers have added to their bullpen with 100 minutes until the trade deadline.
Aug 1 4:00 p.m. (ET): Another Trade, Not As Big As Verlander’s Deal
Bazardo was designated for assignment, so we won’t be writing this one up. Rinehart, a 16th-round pick out of California Baptist in 2019, is having an effective year in the bullpen for High-A Everett. He has missed significant time as a pro as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. He has an effective hard (86-88 mph) slider that he can locate well to pair with a low-90s fastball.
Aug. 1 3:46 p.m. (ET): Further Analysis Of the Phillies-Tigers Trade
Here’s our Phillies rankings, where Hao-Yu Lee slotted in at eighth. That’s two spots down from where he ranked at the start of the season. Here’s a story about Lee from March, as well as another one from January.
And here’s the full writeup of the trade penned by Chris Trenkle, who does our Phillies rankings.
Aug. 1 3:40 p.m. (ET): Full Analysis Of The Justin Verlander Deal
JJ Cooper: Our Geoff Pontes dives deep into what the Mets are getting in return for Verlander. He explains both why Mets fans have reasons to be excited, but also why neither Gilbert nor Clifford is currently a Top 100 Prospect in our estimation.
Aug. 1 3:35 p.m. (ET): Next Up, The Phillies
There was no chance Dave Dombrowski was going to sit today out, was there?
Aug. 1 3:11 p.m. (ET): This May Seem Anti-Climatic
But we do have a writeup on the Paul Dejong trade to the Blue Jays. And we analyzed the Pirates-Padres deal. Our next one up is the analysis of the Verlander-Mets deal.
Aug. 1 3:05 p.m. (ET): What The Mets Are Getting Back
Here’s the return according to Jeff Passan: OFs Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford. That’s the Astros’ No. 1 and No. 3 prospects.
JJ Cooper: The instant reaction is this seems like a solid return for Verlander, and another boost to a Mets farm system that is quickly getting a lot better. Between the Astros, Angels and Rangers moves, the AL West is going to be incredibly fun over the next two months.
And if you want to see what Ryan Clifford’s swing looks like, here you go.
Aug. 1 2:58 p.m. (ET): Drew Gilbert Is Headed To New York
The return for Justin Verlander will include Astros outfielder Drew Gilbert, the team’s No. 1 prospect and its 2022 first-round pick.
We talked to him at the Louisville Slugger Prospect Pad last month.
Aug. 1 2:47 p.m. (ET): A Blockbuster Happening?
There are multiple reports that Justin Verlander is once again an Astro. Full Astros Top 30 Prospects list (updated last week) to peruse while we wait for the names.
Aug. 1 2:35 p.m. (ET): A Quick Recap While We Wait
If you missed our analyses on any of the trades that have already happened:
Aug. 1—Pirates Acquire Jackson Wolf, Two Others In Deal Sending Rich Hill and Ji-Man Choi to the Padres.
Aug. 1–In Modest Move, Rays and Cubs Swap Relievers
Aug. 1—Braves Bolster Bullpen With Addition Of Brad Hand
July 31—A’s Add Hard-Throwing Joe Boyle, Reds Land Sam Moll
July 31—Cubs Send Prospects DJ Herz, Kevin Made To Nationals For Jeimer Candelario
July 31—Giants Acquire A.J. Pollock, Mark Mathias From Mariners
July 31—Mets Acquire Righthander Justin Jarvis From Brewers In Deal For Mark Canha
July 31—D-backs Bolster Bullpen, Acquire Paul Sewald From Mariners For Josh Rojas and Two Prospects
July 31—Rays Acquire Aaron Civale From Guardians For Top Prospect Kyle Manzardo
Aug. 1 2:25 p.m. (ET): A Top 100 Prospect Explainer
JJ Cooper: For once, I’m not going to rail about how it’s pointless to look at preseason rankings when evaluating a trade deadline deal, I’m assuming you have heard that from me multiple times over the past week. OK, one more reminder, our rankings are updated. In some cases, a prospect’s evaluation hasn’t changed much from January-February. Most of the time, it has, so check the updated rankings.
But this is another subject. You will see writers say that to land a certain target will require “multiple Top 100 Prospects” or “a Top 100 Prospect.” I want to explain how that’s pretty vague, and doesn’t fully explain the massive difference between different levels of Top 100 Prospects.
At any moment there are three or four different tiers of Top 100 Prospects on the Top 100. There’s the truly elite, top-of-the scale tier. Think of Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Carroll coming into this season. This was where Adley Rutschman was a few years ago. Those are the type of prospects who are almost never traded. They are even really the subject of trade talks in most cases, as teams know that they are effectively off limits.
If any prospects are in that tier right now on the current Top 100, it’s Jackson Holliday, Jackson Chourio and maybe James Wood. (Dylan Crews, our No. 3 prospect is not eligible to be traded yet).
Then there is the next tier of prospects. Normally that is the group that ranks from No. 5 to No. 25-30 on the Top 100. These are the prospects who can serve as true cornerstones of big deals. There are very rarely traded unless it is for massive returns. While the success rate of a Top 25 prospect does not compare to the success rate of a Top 5 prospect, it is still so significant that teams are generally extremely wary of including one or more in a deal.
The next tier usually ranges from 25-30 to 60-65 on the Top 100. Robert Hassell, James Wood and Noelvi Marte all sat in this range at the time they were traded last July. These are elite prospects, but ones who are either a little further away from the majors or ones who have a limit to their potential impact. Some of these players turn into stars, others take steps back. This is usually the upper limit of the range where teams feel comfortable including these players in significant deals. There’s more risk for the acquiring team, but still plenty of upside. Look at Hassell and Wood as examples. Hassell has taken a step back since the Nationals acquired him while Wood has taken two steps forward and has moved into that top tier of prospects.
Kyle Manzardo’s trade to the Guardians hovers right around this line. But you could also argue that he fits in the next tier, which is the group of prospects in the back third of the Top 100. They are all excellent prospects, but they are ones who have a few more questions to answer. In Manzardo’s case, it’s his ability to hit lefthanders and his struggles in a first taste of Triple-A combined with his limited position versatility. The trades of Luisangel Acuna and Edgar Quero also fit in this range.
But here’s where it’s worth understanding something else. If we think of the Top 100 as a sloping curve, there are way fewer prospects who fit at the top of the 100 than do at the bottom of the list. There’s much less difference between the No. 80 prospect who sits firmly on the Top 100, and the unranked No. 120 prospect than there usually is between the No. 15 prospect on the list and the No. 30 prospect.
The difference between a prospect who ranks 90th on our Top 100 and another who just missed the list is extremely negligible. If the Brewers swung a deal that included Robert Gasser (No. 98 on our Top 100) or Tyler Black (No. 100 on our Top 100), it wouldn’t be dramatically different than the Astros sending Drew Gilbert in a deal, even if Black or Gasser is just inside the Top 100 and Gilbert’s just outside it.
Aug. 1, 2:09 p.m. (ET): Quick Thoughts On Some Modest Deals
Aug. 1, 1:50 p.m. (ET): The Deals Keep Coming, Mainly As Appetizers
We’re seeing a lot of smaller scale deals in the lead-up to the deadline.
Svanson did not rank on our updated Blue Jays Top 30 Prospects list. He does appear in the most recent RoboScout update. He also was our pick as the Blue Jays’ best late-round pick in 2021, and he ranked 25th on our Pennsylvania Draft Prospects list in 2021. This is a low-cost move for the Blue Jays that gives them some insurance with Bo Bichette leaving yesterday’s game with a sore knee.
And In another move, which we analyzed here.
JJ Cooper: This is the type of move that Alex Anthopoulos excels at year after year. Hand lengthens the Braves bullpen by giving them another reliable, if unspectacular, bullpen arm. In return, the Braves gave up a pitcher who did not rank on our updated Braves Top 30, in a system that is very thin in prospects. And Barger is Rule 5 eligible after the season if the Rockies do not add him to their 40-man roster.
Aug. 1, 12:45 p.m. (ET): Rays-Cubs Swing A Deal
We have reports of our first deal of the day. Geoff Pontes is writing this up for us, but here’s the latest deal.
JJ Cooper:
Aug. 1, 12:25 p.m. (ET): A Useful Reminder
Aug. 1, 12 p.m. (ET): Hear Kyle Glaser Talk About The Candelario Trade
Aug. 1, 11:30 a.m. (ET): Most Trades Make Sense For Both Teams
JJ Cooper: The understandable reaction to most trades by fans is some form of “so who won the trade?”
My boring answer usually is that the deal makes sense for both teams. Now, this isn’t always true, but nowadays, it’s very often the case, because of the steady spread of information around the sport.
If you rewind the clock to 20+ years ago, information was often scarce. Simply knowing how hard a Class A pitcher threw might be a valuable piece of information. Knowing that 19-year-old had just added a promising slider would be an exceptionally valuable nugget.
Nowadays, there are still advantages to be found, but data is much more pervasive, so there are fewer avenues for a team to “win” a trade. Often both teams know the other team’s logic in the trade, and both agree that the deal makes sense from both their perspective and the other team’s. Sometimes both teams “win” the trade from their perspective. Sometimes both teams “lose.” But usually both sides can see the logic of the other team’s approach.
Take yesterday’s Sam Moll-Joe Boyle A’s-Reds trade. In my mind, this is a trade that makes perfect sense for both teams. For the Reds, it’s a way to immediately lengthen their bullpen. Moll isn’t going to pitch the ninth inning. He may not even pitch the sixth inning of close games. But he’s another reliable arm who David Bell can turn to three times a week. If he throws three to four innings a week, that’s a way to make sure that the higher-leverage relievers in the Reds’ bullpen aren’t overused.
Moll also will not be arbitration eligible until after the 2024 season. So the Reds can confidently believe he will be part of their bullpen next year. For lower-leveraged relievers like Moll, the reality is that as soon as they hit arbitration, they are non-tender candidates, but Moll won’t reach that milestone until 16 months from now.
Now take it from the A’s perspective. Moll has been a useful part of the A’s bullpen, but this year and next year’s teams are unlikely to top 65 wins. Any ability to get a higher upside, potentially more impactful player for future years is a win for a team going nowhere.
And that’s what Boyle is. He’ll need to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason if he’s not going to be exposed to the Rule 5 draft, but that’s not a big problem for the A’s right now. It is a bigger issue for the Reds. Boyle has a pair of plus-plus pitches in his fastball and slider. On the right night, he’s unhittable. In a best-case scenario, Boyle could end up as the A’s closer of the future.
But he also could end up never having a useful MLB role without significant further improvement. His control remains a 20 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. Boyle’s 19.4% walk percentage this year is the highest in the full-season minors among pitchers with 50 or more innings. He will never have plus control, but even with his exceptional stuff, he needs to get to below-average control to have success against MLB hitters. If you look at a list of pitchers who have walked batters at Boyle’s rate, there are few who have gone on to have successful MLB career. Dellin Betances, Kyle Crick and Daniel Bard are the best examples.
That’s an understandable risk for the Reds to take. If it all breaks perfectly for all players involved, Boyle could have significantly more value than Moll. Moll’s best-case scenario is that he keeps doing what he has done so far at a slightly better level. Boyle’s best-case scenario is that he makes significant improvements from where he is right now.
But there’s a ton more uncertainty revolving around Boyle’s potential, and he will likely need to be carried on the 40-man roster for a year or two before he reaches any level of that potential at an MLB level.
Moll is able to help the Reds now. The Reds are a playoff contender now. He also could help them next year. Taking a risk on losing a high-risk, high-upside reliever is a logical bet. It’s a trade that makes sense for both teams. Like many trades.
Aug. 1, 10 a.m. (ET): Are we headed toward a busy day or are many of the biggest deals done?
JJ Cooper: With so many teams in contention, and some of the worst teams in the majors rather thin on tradable talent, there’s some thought that today could be one of the quieter trade deadline days in recent years. I’ll still guess that we’ll see at least one or two big-name talents moved today, and there’s sure to be a lot of lesser moves, but sometimes those lesser moves can end up being a big deal.
Want a couple of examples? Just look back two years ago when the Braves traded Kasey Kalich to the Royals for Jorge Soler, Alex Jackson to the Marlins for Adam Duvall, Bryce Ball to the Cubs for Joc Pederson and Pablo Sandoval to Cleveland for Eddie Rosario.
Cleveland immediately released Sandoval, so the only cost for the Braves was that of taking on Rosario’s salary. Kalich was released by the Royals in 2022 without ever reaching the majors. Jackson spent the rest of the 2021 season as a light-hitting backup catcher for the Marlins, then was traded to the Brewers to clear him off the 40-man roster in 2022. The Cubs released Ball this year. He never reached the majors.
Those four moves had effectively zero talent cost to the Braves, and it’s safe to say the Braves don’t win the 2021 World Series without those moves.
Soler hit three home runs in the 2021 World Series and was named the World Series MVP. Duvall and Pederson each hit three home runs during the 2021 postseason and Rosario hit .560/.607/1.040 with three home runs against the Dodgers to be named the NLCS MVP.
It’s unlikely anyone will win the trade deadline as much as Atlanta did two years ago, but it is a reminder that the prospect cost in many of these trades for relievers and platoon bats is often minimal.
Aug. 1, 9:30 AM ET: The day before the trade deadline was a busy one.
JJ Cooper: If you want to get caught up on all of the moves from the weekend and yesterday, make sure to check out our Trade Deadline tracker. Coming into Tuesday, there are already writeups on 20 trades.
And also make sure you keep coming back to our updated Team Top 30s for all 30 teams. Don’t rely on preseason rankings to make your evaluations of trades. Way too much has happened since then. We know that, so we’ve made sure that we’ve updated our entire Top 30s for all 30 teams the week before the trade deadline.
