After posting a 5.63 ERA in two years of Rookie ball, Alvarez had a breakthrough season in the 2009, leading the low Class A Midwest League in fewest walks (1.4) and homers (0.1) allowed per nine innings. Interestingly, his pure stuff improved last year but his performance didn't. After ranging from 86-94 mph the previous season, his fastball sat at 92-94 and touched 97 during the high Class A Florida State League all-star game in 2010. His changeup remained a plus pitch with splitter action. Yet despite possessing two plus pitches, Alvarez was more hittable and his strikeout rate declined. He may have gotten caught up in his newfound power and lost some feel for pitching. He throws too many strikes and doesn't try to get hitters to chase pitches enough when he's ahead in the count. His breaking ball lags well behind his other two pitches at this point. It's a hybrid of a curveball and a slider, though he'll show an average slider on occasion. If he can refine his breaking ball, he could become a No. 3 starter. With a good spring, Alvarez could open 2011 in Double-A.
Signed out of Venezuela as a 16-year-old, Alvarez posted a 5.63 ERA in two years in Rookie ball before breaking out at low Class A Lansing in 2009. He went 9-6, 3.47 for a last-place team, leading the Midwest League in fewest walks (1.4) and homers (0.1) allowed per nine innings. Managers rated his changeup as the MWL's best. All three of Alvarez's pitches have a chance to be average or better. His best offering is his changeup, which has splitter action. When he's at his best, his fastball sits at 89-92 mph and touches 94. He commands his fastball and changeup very well, and complements them with a three-quarters breaking ball. Alvarez needs to polish his breaking ball into a true slider or curveball. His velocity fluctuates, as there are games where he works at 86-89 mph, and adding more strength would help. He's not overpowering, so he'll have little margin for error against more advanced hitters. He has some recoil and falls off to first base in his delivery, and he tends to rush his mechanics with runners on base. The Blue Jays' want to be conservative with Alvarez because of his youth, and they shut him down last August because of his innings total. Projected as a No. 4 starter, he'll step up to high Class A in 2010.
Along with Balbino Fuenmayor and 19-year-old outfielder Johermyn Chavez, Alvarez stands at the forefront of young Venezuelan talent in Toronto's system. Signed in October 2006 at age 16, he has such a live arm that he makes the cut here despite compiling a career 5.63 ERA in his two pro seasons in Rookie ball. He has a chance for three plus pitches, headlined by his dancing 92-93 mph two-seam fastball. Alvarez's four-seamer touches 94 and features natural cutting action. His hard slurve clocks in at 85-87 mph and flashes plus potential, but it's just usable now because he doesn't command it. He also shows hitters a fading changeup that he's still ironing out. Batters just don't seem comfortable facing Alvarez, in part because he lacks reliable fastball command. His control is fine, though, as he has walked just 14 batters in 72 pro innings. Like many teenagers with plus arm strength, Alvarez tries to overthrow everything. He also needs to be mindful of staying on top of his pitches so that they don't flatten out. At times his mound composure breaks down as well. Alvarez has the raw arm strength to profile as either a starter or power reliever, though he's probably still not ready for full-season ball.
Minor League Top Prospects
After being New Hampshire's best starter in the first half and pitching in the Futures Game for the second straight season, Alvarez shot to the major leagues. He held his own in Toronto over 10 starts by doing what worked in Double-A: pitching off his two- and four-seam fastballs. He can sit in the low 90s with a sinker or work in the mid-90s with his four-seamer, which touched 100 mph this year. Alvarez' changeup, his best secondary pitch, has sink similar to his two-seamer, helping him combat lefthanders effectively and giving him a solid average No. 2 pitch. He throws two breaking balls and is inconsistent with both, getting better bite with a cutter/slider that can reach the upper 80s. If he could develop a true slider with more depth, he could be a future No. 2 starter. "He has some pitch feel," a National League scout said. "He cruised at 92-94, then was up to 94-97 to finish. He showed a sense of urgency that I liked."
With his stuff, Alvarez seemingly should rank higher on this list. His velocity improved 2-3 mph in 2010, giving him a 92-94 mph fastball that touches 98. He also had one of the best changeups in the FSL, threw strikes and fielded his position well. But scouts still have some doubts about Alvarez. "Why doesn't he miss more bats?" a scout asked. "He's got a plus fastball and a plus changeup. But there's not a whole lot of swing and miss." Opponents batted .300 against Alvarez in 2010, and he struck out only 6.2 batters per nine innings. He throws too many strikes, giving opponents hittable pitches instead of trying to get them to chase out of the zone when he's ahead in the count. His fastball and curveball lack life, and his slider is just fringy right now.
Best Tools List
Rated Best Fastball in the Eastern League in 2011
Rated Best Changeup in the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011
Rated Best Changeup in the Florida State League in 2010
Rated Best Changeup in the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010
Rated Best Control in the Toronto Blue Jays in 2010
Rated Best Changeup in the Midwest League in 2009
Career Transactions
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Leones del Caracas.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Guerreros de Oaxaca.
Saraperos de Saltillo released RHP Henderson Alvarez III.
Saraperos de Saltillo placed RHP Henderson Alvarez III on the 15-day injured list.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Saraperos de Saltillo.
Leones de Yucatan activated RHP Henderson Alvarez III from the 15-day injured list.
Leones de Yucatan placed RHP Henderson Alvarez III on the 15-day injured list.
Navegantes del Magallanes activated RHP Henderson Alvarez III.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Navegantes del Magallanes.
Leones de Yucatan activated RHP Henderson Alvarez III from the reserve list.
Leones de Yucatan placed RHP Henderson Alvarez III on the reserve list.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Leones de Yucatan.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Venezuela.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III, and assigned to Navegantes del Magallanes.
Tigres de Quintana Roo released RHP Henderson Alvarez III.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Navegantes del Magallanes.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Navegantes del Magallanes.
Tigres de Quintana Roo activated RHP Henderson Alvarez III.
Tigres de Quintana Roo signed free agent RHP Henderson Alvarez III.
Fresno Grizzlies released RHP Henderson Alvarez III.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Fresno Grizzlies from Auburn Doubledays.
Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Auburn Doubledays from Fresno Grizzlies.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III assigned to Fresno Grizzlies.
RHP Henderson Alvarez III roster status changed by Washington Nationals.
Washington Nationals signed free agent RHP Henderson Alvarez to a minor league contract.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Mexican League Sur All-Stars.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Tigres de Quintana Roo.
RHP Henderson Alvarez loaned to Navegantes del Magallanes from Aguilas del Zulia.
RHP Henderson Alvarez transferred to Aguilas del Zulia from Tiburones de La Guaira.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Tiburones de La Guaira.
RHP Henderson Alvarez elected free agency.
Philadelphia Phillies selected the contract of RHP Henderson Alvarez from Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
Philadelphia Phillies signed free agent RHP Henderson Alvarez to a minor league contract.
Oakland Athletics sent RHP Henderson Alvarez outright to Nashville Sounds.
RHP Henderson Alvarez elected free agency.
Oakland Athletics sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Stockton Ports.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to AZL Athletics.
Oakland Athletics transferred RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list. Recovering from July 2015 right shoulder surgery.
Oakland Athletics sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Nashville Sounds.
Oakland Athletics sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Stockton Ports.
Oakland Athletics sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Nashville Sounds.
Oakland Athletics sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Stockton Ports.
Oakland Athletics sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Nashville Sounds.
Oakland Athletics sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Stockton Ports.
Oakland Athletics placed RHP Henderson Alvarez on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to March 25, 2016. Recovering from July 2015 right shoulder surgery
Oakland Athletics signed free agent RHP Henderson Alvarez.
RHP Henderson Alvarez elected free agency.
Miami Marlins activated RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 60-day disabled list.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Tiburones de La Guaira.
Miami Marlins transferred RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list. July 2015 right shoulder surgery
Miami Marlins sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Jupiter Hammerheads.
Miami Marlins placed RHP Henderson Alvarez on the 15-day disabled list. Right shoulder inflammation
Miami Marlins activated RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 15-day disabled list.
Miami Marlins sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Jupiter Hammerheads.
Miami Marlins placed RHP Henderson Alvarez on the 15-day disabled list. Right shoulder inflammation.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Tiburones de La Guaira.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Tiburones de La Guaira.
Miami Marlins activated RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 15-day disabled list.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to National League All-Stars.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Tiburones de La Guaira.
Miami Marlins placed RHP Henderson Alvarez on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to July 30, 2013. Right Shoulder Inflamation
Miami Marlins activated RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 60-day disabled list.
Miami Marlins sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Jacksonville Suns.
Miami Marlins sent RHP Henderson Alvarez on a rehab assignment to Jupiter Hammerheads.
Miami Marlins transferred RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 15-day disabled list to the 60-day disabled list. Right shoulder inflammation.
Miami Marlins placed RHP Henderson Alvarez on the 15-day disabled list retroactive to March 27, 2013. Mild right shoulder inflammation.
Henderson Alvarez roster status changed by Miami Marlins.
Miami Marlins traded 2B Emilio Bonifacio, C John Buck, LHP Mark Buehrle, RHP Josh Johnson and SS Jose Reyes to Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Henderson Alvarez, SS Yunel Escobar, SS Adeiny Hechavarria, C Jeff Mathis, RHP Anthony DeSclafani, CF Jake Marisnick and LHP Justin Nicolino.
Toronto Blue Jays selected the contract of Henderson Alvarez from New Hampshire Fisher Cats.
Henderson Alvarez assigned to New Hampshire Fisher Cats from Dunedin Blue Jays.
Henderson Alvarez roster status changed by Dunedin Blue Jays.
Dunedin Blue Jays placed RHP Henderson Alvarez on the 7-day disabled list.
Toronto Blue Jays invited non-roster RHP Henderson Alvarez to spring training.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Tiburones de La Guaira.
Dunedin Blue Jays activated RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 7-day disabled list.
Dunedin Blue Jays placed RHP Henderson Alvarez on the 7-day disabled list.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Dunedin Blue Jays from Lansing Lugnuts.
Lansing Lugnuts activated RHP Henderson Alvarez from the 7-day disabled list.
Lansing Lugnuts placed RHP Henderson Alvarez on the 7-day disabled list.
RHP Henderson Alvarez assigned to Lansing Lugnuts from GCL Blue Jays.
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