Yes, The Orioles Fell Flat. But Deadline Trades Wouldn’t Change That.
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The Baltimore Orioles surprised nearly everyone by winning 101 games during the regular season. A breakout season arrived earlier than expected for a team that has produced top prospect after top prospect.
If the regular season was surprisingly good, the postseason was just as surprisingly awful for O’s fans.
Baltimore was convincingly swept by the Rangers in the Division Series. The Orioles led for exactly one inning during the three-game series and were outscored 21-11.
That led to some fans asking an understandable question. Couldn’t the Orioles have done more to bulk up at the trade deadline and avoid such a brutal exit?
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Obviously the answer to that is yes. Baltimore added Cardinals righthander Jack Flaherty, A’s reliever Shintaro Fujinami and little else. A team with such enviable prospect depth could have made more moves.
But the follow-up question is would a more robust trade deadline have made a difference?
That’s harder to argue.
The Orioles were swept in this series because their offense was only OK, their starting pitching largely imploded and their bullpen was shaky.
Baltimore’s lineup is a mix of role-players (Jorge Mateo, Adam Frazier, Ramon Urias and waiver pickup Aaron Hicks), homegrown young stars (Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman) and a relatively veteran core of outfielders/first baseman (Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins).
The players most likely to have been benched if position players were added are the ones who performed against Texas.
In this series, Mateo went 4-for-5 with two doubles, an RBI and a run scored. Hicks hit .250/.400/.625, hitting a home run and leading the team with 5 RBIs.
Among the core members of the lineup, Henderson was great (.500/.583/.750), but Rutschman (.083/.154/.167), Mountcastle (.182/.231/.273) and Mullins (0-for-12 with three strikeouts) were lineup fixtures who struggled.
Maybe the O’s would have found a spark with a deadline position player acquisition, but it seems unlikely.
Pitching was a bigger problem. But again, many of those problems were ones that would have likely occurred even with a more robust deadline.
No matter what, the Orioles likely would still have started Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez in two of their first three postseason games. Bradish was a consistent ace for the team all year. Rodriguez was reliable and at times dominant over the final two months of the season.
The Orioles lost both of their starts. While Bradish pitched well in a 3-2 loss, Rodriguez exited with the O’s trailing 5-2 in the second inning. They were trailing 10-2 just a couple of innings later.
Flaherty’s inability to fill the No. 3 starter role proved quite costly. Dean Kremer (1.2 IP, 7H, 6ER) failed to produce in that spot in the deciding game.
Flaherty’s struggles in St. Louis only got worse after he became an Orioles. He posted a 6.75 ERA and a 4.78 FIP in Baltimore and only pitched in mop-up duty in the postseason.
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The O’s likely want a mulligan on the Flaherty decision, but that wasn’t obvious at the end of July. The Rangers’ pickup of fellow Cardinals starter Jordan Montgomery proved to be much more impactful than the Orioles’ acquisition of Flaherty.
Montgomery has been a useful member of the Rangers playoff rotation. Flaherty was banished to the far end of the O’s bullpen. But when both were pitching with the Cardinals, it was reasonable to view Montgomery as the safer option while Flaherty had higher upside.
Flaherty’s peak at his best surpasses Montgomery’s. Flaherty finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2019. He misses more bats and if the O’s could find a way to help him get him back to his peak form, he would be a playoff starter.
It didn’t work out, but it wasn’t a crazy idea at the time for Baltimore. There wasn’t a lot else on the market, either. Looking at the other starting pitchers traded at the deadline, there are a lot of dead ends.
Justin Verlander has made a massive impact for the Astros, and would have been a useful pickup for anyone, but he’s the exception. He also had a no-trade clause that allowed him to somewhat pick and choose his landing spot–and he loved the option of going back to Houston.
Max Scherzer has pitched well, but he has missed significant time on the injury list.
Michael Lorenzen threw a no-hitter for the Phillies, but then lost his rotation spot. Lucas Giolito fell flat for two different teams. Lance Lynn has been adequate at best, posting a 4.36 ERA and a more concerning 6.16 FIP.
So maybe the Orioles could have gotten some additional rotation help, but there were few options at the deadline that paid off. It just happens that one of those few was pitching for the Rangers.
The Orioles’ bullpen was also a problem. Jacob Webb made two appearances and gave up two home runs. Bryan Baker recorded one out while giving up three runs. Flaherty allowed five of the 10 batters he faced to reach while giving up one run in two innings.
The Orioles needed more high-leverage relief depth. But that wasn’t an obvious problem at the deadline. Closer Felix Bautista was rolling until he went down with an elbow injury in late August. Without him, the bullpen lost its best arm, and it forced Yennier Canó to take on a larger role.
This may seem to be an overly robust defense of a 101-win team that failed to win a solitary playoff game. But it’s hard to spell out what would have turned this series around for Baltimore. If this had gone to a nail-biting Game 5, it would be easier to understand how a more aggressive front office might have finagled a series win.
It does, however, set up a very interesting offseason. Baltimore continues to have one of the best and deepest farm systems in baseball. But prospects have a shelf life before they start to grow stale. The Orioles have a large number of prospects that have reached Triple-A. Many of them helped the Norfolk Tides win the Triple-A national championship.
Prospects like Jackson Holliday (and Samuel Basallo) generally find their way to the majors no matter who is standing in front of them. But Baltimore also has a number of prospects who may find themselves blocked in the next year by better or more established big leaguers. If they aren’t moved this offseason, a number of them will likely have even less trade value a year from now.
The O’s were unlikely to turn their 2023 playoffs around by simply making one more trade. But figuring out who to trade – and what moves to make – should make this a fascinating offseason and ensure next October is a better one in Baltimore.
