Top 20 Rookies For 2016
The 2015 rookie class might not be matched for another decade. The guys who were supposed to be great were great, from Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and shortstops Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor, to Mets flamethrower Noah Syndergaard. The 2014 draft delivered fast-moving first-rounders, from pitchers Aaron Nola and Carlos Rodon to the Mets’ Michael Conforto and the Cubs’ Kyle Schwarber, who became key playoff performers as rookies.
Then surprise contributors of all stripes buttressed the class. Few expected the Giants’ Matt Duffy to become a more than suitable replacement for Pablo Sandoval, or for Rule 5 draft pick Odubel Herrera to match Duffy with an identical .762 OPS, or for 20-year-old Roberto Osuna to lead big league rookies with 20 saves and help lead the Blue Jays to the postseason for the first time in 22 years, after never having played above Class A.
In other words, it’s more fair to compare this year’s class of rookies—with our picks, determined by the Baseball America staff, for the Top 20 presented below—to themselves, rather than to last year’s class. We shan’t see their like again. (Ages are as of Opening Day, 2016).
1. Corey Seager, ss, Dodgers (21)
Credentials: A first-round pick in 2012, Seager hit .307/.368/.523 in more than 1,500 minor league at-bats, hitting his way to Los Angeles by the end of his third full pro season. The Dodgers instantly installed him as the three-hole hitter for a 92-win team, and he displaced veteran Jimmy Rollins at shortstop as well.
2016 Outlook: Expectations for Seager are so high as to be almost unfair. Yet his all-fields approach and tremendous strike-zone judgment set him up to be successful, if not at the level of his 98-at-bat debut last September with his .986 OPS. Seager should be a better version of his all-star brother Kyle, with more power potential and better pure hitting ability.
2. Byron Buxton, of, Twins (22)
Credentials: The 2013 Minor League Player of the Year has maintained electric athleticism and premium tools despite a series of injuries that have included a wrist problem and a concussion that ended his 2014 season, and a sprained thumb that interrupted his 2015 campaign. When healthy, he dazzled in the minors in 2015 before getting 129 big league at-bats.
2016 Outlook: Buxton’s bat looked raw in the majors, where he seemed to be just trying to survive rather than drive the ball. The experience should serve him well this season, as he’s seen big league pitching, experienced some failure but still seen how he can help the Twins compete. If Buxton gets some confidence, he should thrive at the plate, with the glove and on the base paths.
3. Kenta Maeda, rhp, Dodgers (27)
Credentials: Already 27, Maeda has been a durable star in Japan for eight seasons, winning two Sawamura Awards, the Japanese version of the Cy Young Award. He’s been a stalwart for his country’s national team as well in the 2013 World Baseball Classic and 2015 Premier 12. He combines sharp stuff with strike-throwing ability (1.9 BB/9 IP in 1,510 innings in his NPB career).
2016 Outlook: Maeda has present command stuff and a needed righthanded arm in a Dodgers rotation that leans to the left. He doesn’t have to be the ace—not with the planet’s best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, at the head of the rotation—and the Dodgers have plenty of experience integrating Japanese pitchers into the clubhouse and the L.A. community.
4. Steven Matz, lhp, Mets (24)
Credentials: Matz’s career almost ended before it got started, but he’s thrown at least 140 innings each of the last two seasons, exceeding 150 last year while making three playoff starts for the Mets. He’s made such progress with his changeup that in his short big league stint, he handled righthanded hitters (.644 OPS in 104 ABs) better than lefthanders (.650 in 32 ABs).
2016 Outlook: The Mets probably can’t expect Matz go pitch 200 innings yet, but he doesn’t have to. Being a lefty with power stuff as well as some feel for pitching, Matz seems like a perfect fit in a rotation otherwise stuffed with righthanders throwing 95-100 mph heat . . . and Bartolo Colon.
5. Trea Turner, ss, Nationals (22)
Credentials: Another 2014 first-rounder who reached the majors in his first full pro season, Turner got there fast, which is appropriate given his 70-grade speed. While the Padres traded him quickly after taking him 13th overall, all Turner has done as a pro is hit, batting .322/.384/.454 in 733 minor league at-bats.
2016 Outlook: With Ian Desmond leaving Washington as a free agent, Turner will compete with veteran Danny Espinoza, who has much better facial hair than the baby-faced Turner but who struck out 355 times in his two seasons as a regular in 2011-2012. Turner’s table-setting abilities and speed, as well as his solid defense, should push him into the regular role sooner than later.
6. Orlando Arcia, ss, Brewers (21)
Credentials: The younger brother of Twins outfielder Oswaldo, Arcia keeps getting better every season. He’s moved from second base to playing some shortstop to becoming an everyday player at short, with range, arm strength and infield actions to go with surprising pop and whip in his swing. Now he’s poised to become the key building block in Milwaukee’s rebuild.
2016 Outlook: The Brewers traded Jean Segura, whose offensive struggles contributed to the team’s decline the last two seasons. While Jonathan Villar and Yadiel Rivera could buy Arcia time in Triple-A, Arcia’s talent should win out, at least by the second half.
7. J.P. Crawford, ss, Phillies (21)
Credentials: Crawford combines athleticism with polish at the plate to make for a star-quality profile. He’s a lefthanded-hitting shortstop with a track record for hitting, burgeoning power potential and plate discipline (160 walks, 163 strikeouts in 1,088 career minor league at-bats). And the Phillies are rebuilding, with Crawford as the future focal point.
2016 Outlook: Freddy Galvis is a capable placeholder, so if Crawford stumbles a bit out of the gate in Triple-A, the Phils won’t panic. But sooner than later, talent usually wins out in these situations, and Crawford should hit his way to Citizens Bank Park and into rookie of the year consideration.
8. Jose Berrios, rhp, Twins (21)
Credentials: Berrios already has started two Futures Games and is ready to leave the minors behind. The Puerto Rico product led the minors in strikeouts in 2015, showed his durability by racking up 166 innings and set himself up for a spot in Minnesota’s 2016 rotation.
2016 Outlook: Minnesota’s low-strikeouts rotation has been a feature and a bug in recent years. Berrios lacks the pure power and physicality of a typical No. 1 starter, but he should contribute to the Twins’ resurgence and earn 15-20 starts as a rookie on a team that had only two pitchers surpass 100 strikeouts in 2015.
9. Blake Snell, lhp, Rays (23)
Credentials: The Minor League Player of the Year in 2015, Snell took The Leap in 2015, starting the year in high Class A and finishing with a dominant stretch in Triple-A. Along the way, he improved his fastball command and breaking ball (slider) while retaining his lively fastball up to 97 mph and devastating changeup.
2016 Outlook: Snell still has plenty of upside, but the Rays may need him now, particularly with Alex Cobb still on the mend from surgery. Snell checks a lot of the same boxes Matt Moore did on his way to Tampa Bay; the Rays just hope Snell stays healthier than Moore—who’s coming back this season—and remains in command of the strike zone.
10. A.J. Reed, 1b, Astros (22)
Credentials: Reed dominated the minors in 2015, leading all minor leaguers with 34 homers, 127 RBIs and a 1.044 OPS. That followed his 2014 College Player of the Year star turn. While high Class A Lancaster and the offense-heavy California League aided Reed’s numbers, his swing, strike-zone judgment and track record say his bat is for real.
2016 Outlook: The Astros have many options at first base, from ex-prospect Jonathan Singleton to Tyler White to big league utility man Marwin Gonzalez. Reed doesn’t offer much defensively, but his bat grades out superior in this peer group, and the Astros could use his lefthanded power bat. He should hit his way to Houston by the second half.
11. Hector Olivera, of/3b, Braves (30)
Credentials: Olivera was one of Cuba’s best hitters for years, starring for national teams and in Cuba’s top domestic league, Serie Nacional. While he signed for $62.5 million with the Dodgers in May 2015—including a $28 million signing bonus—Olivera has had medical issues, from thrombosis in his left biceps in Cubs to an elbow injury last season.
2016 Outlook: Olivera played left field in Puerto Rico in a short winter ball stint and may do it for the Braves this season. As long as he stays healthy, he still gives scouts confidence in his offensive abilities as a consistent hitter with average or better power potential. His time is now—he turns 31 the day after Opening Day.
12. Joey Gallo, 3b/1b, Rangers (22)
Credentials: Gallo has as much raw power as any hitter on the planet. He hit 29 home runs over three stops last year, the first time in three full minor league seasons that he fell short of 40. He’s athletic enough despite his massive 6-foot-5, 230-pound frame to be an option at several spots for the Rangers, from third base to first base to the outfield corners.
2016 Outlook: Gallo has struggled with contact above Double-A, with 147 strikeouts and a .198 average in 308 at-bats between Triple-A and the big leagues last season. Still, the Rangers will find a spot for Gallo’s power if he continues his career-long trend of adjusting to higher levels in his second attempt.
13. Jose De Leon, rhp, Dodgers (23)
Credentials: No college pitcher ranked higher on BA’s Top 100 Prospects than the De Leon, who checked in at No. 23. He did so despite being a 24th-round pick out of Southern, but he’s made rapid progress as a pro since getting on a strength and conditioning program. He throws plenty of quality strikes with his fastball, making him close to big league-ready.
2016 Outlook: While lefty Julio Urias is the better prospect, he’s still just 19 and has yet to exceed 90 innings in a season. If the Dodgers need help in the rotation from within, De Leon’s combination of fastball command, physicality and upside make him the best internal bet.
14. Josh Bell, 1b/of, Pirates (23)
Credentials: Since signing for $5 million, a record for a second-round pick, Bell has overcome a major knee injury and switched positions, adding first base to fill a Pirates need and avoid being blocked by Pittsburgh’s impressive big league outfield talent. Bell also keeps hitting, including a .347 stint in his 35-game Triple-A stint last year.
2016 Outlook: Bell’s patient, line-drive approach plays much better from the lefthanded batter’s box, so for now, he’s best served as a platoon option. He also needs considerable defensive polish at first base. But Pittsburgh doesn’t have an everyday first baseman on its big league roster, so we’re betting on the talent.
15. Byung-Ho Park, 1b/dh, Twins (29)
Credentials: Last year’s Top 20 featured Korean infielder Jung Ho Kang at No. 20, as he blazed a trail for other Korean position players to follow. Park is a completely different player from Kang, who was more athletic, with defensive versatility and good power potential. Park is a DH coming off consecutive 50-homer seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization.
2016 Outlook: Signed for $12 million in the offseason on a four-year deal, Park is expected to bring more power to a Twins lineup that needs it with Joe Mauer’s declining production at first base. He doesn’t bring much defensive value, but if Park hits half as many homers as he did in his last two KBO seasons, the Twins will be happy with their investment.
16. Jorge Lopez, rhp, Brewers (23)
Credentials: Lopez was a prospect entering 2015, but few pitchers made as big of a leap as the Puerto Rican righthander did last year. Usually the Florida State League is easier on pitchers, but going from the FSL to the Double-A Southern League, Lopez improved his strikeout rate (from 7.8 to 8.6 per 9 IP) and dropped his ERA by more than two runs per game.
2016 Outlook: Lean and lanky, Lopez attacks hitters with two plus pitches in his fastballs and curve, with a strong changeup giving him another weapon. The rebuilding Brewers can afford to give Lopez, who made a pair of big league starts last season, his first Triple-A time. They have few better options than Lopez, who figures to spend the second half back in Milwaukee.
17. Nomar Mazara, of, Rangers (20)
Credentials: The Rangers’ aggressive scouting in Latin America seemed most personified by Mazara and his $4.95 million bonus signed in 2011. His pro career got off to a fitful start, but he has made adjustments to his swing to become one of the most polished bats in the upper minors. He reached Triple-A as a 20-year-old.
2016 Outlook: Signing Ian Desmond gives the Rangers more outfield depth, but Prince Fielder, Josh Hamilton and Shin-Soo Choo all are on the wrong side of 30. Mazara’s combination of improved right-field defense, mature plate approach and significant lefthanded power potential could force the issue in the second half if Texas needs him.
18. Gary Sanchez, c, Yankees (23)
Credentials: Signed for $3 million in 2009, Sanchez has slowly worked his way up the Yankees’ farm system, maturing physically and emotionally along the way. Reports of his low-energy approach to catching or difficulties with teammates and coaches have fallen further into the past, and he electrified scouts with a strong Arizona Fall League showing.
2016 Outlook: Sanchez has the plus arm and plus power teams look for in backup catchers, and his righthanded bat complements lefthanded-hitting veteran starter Brian McCann well. With John Ryan Murphy traded in the offseason, the Yankees have opened the backup spot for Sanchez. It’s up to him to win it.
19. Tyler Glasnow, rhp, Pirates (22)
Credentials: No one has been tougher to hit in the minor leagues than Glasnow since he signed in 2012. Opponents have hit just .171 against him; the 6-foot-8 righty has had his share of control issues but consistently gives up very few hits. Glasnow’s combination of mid-to-upper 90s fastball velocity and downhill plane makes the pitch difficult to square up, even for advanced hitters.
2016 Outlook: Glasnow has walked 4.2 per nine innings over his career, and Triple-A hitters were both more patient against him and hit .220 against him, the worst mark of his career. He’ll have to find the strike zone with more frequency to get big league hitters to bite, but Pittsburgh pitching coach Ray Searage has earned a reputation for straightening out pitchers with control issues such as Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez.
20. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Nationals (21)
Credentials: The top righthanded pitching prospect in the minors, Giolito has lived up to his billing from 2012, when he entered the spring as the prep class’ top prospect. While Lance McCullers zoomed to the majors last year ahead of him, McCullers didn’t have Tommy John surgery in his history. Giolito has stayed healthy as a pro and finished 2015 in Double-A.
2016 Outlook: The Nationals are in win-now mode but lost some pitching depth with the offseason loss of Jordan Zimmermann. Giolito’s combination of premium velocity to go with one of the minors’ best curveballs could force the issue in the Nationals’ rotation if he continues to throw quality strikes against higher-level hitters.
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