There’s A Clear Winner In The Pablo Lopez, Luis Arraez Trade
Image credit: (Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Getty Images)
Whenever Twins righthander Pablo Lopez stepped onto the mound this postseason or Marlins second baseman Luis Arraez stepped to the plate, broadcasters immediately seem compelled to note they were swapped for each other last offseason in “one of those trades that helped both teams.”
Arraez was great. Lopez was great. Everyone benefitted. This was that rare trade that both teams would do again even with the benefit of hindsight.
I’ve heard this enough in recent weeks that it seems as likely to be heard during a Lopez start as the disclaimer that “any broadcast, retransmission or account of this game, without the express permission of Major League Baseball is prohibited.”
I don’t agree.
This is nothing against Arraez. He had an excellent season. He’s the best pure hitter in baseball. He was a key part of the Marlins getting to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game season since 2003.
But as good as he was, I think it’s also incredibly clear that given the choice between a valuable second baseman and a front-of-the-rotation starter, you want to land the starting pitcher every time.
Arraez-Lopez Swap
Here’s how we evaluated every player in the January 2023 trade.
The Marlins, to their credit, were as well-equipped as any team to trade away a big league starting pitcher.
Even without Lopez this year, the Marlins had one of baseball’s best rotations with Sandy Alcantara (until he went down with an elbow injury), Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett, plus the emergence of Eury Perez.
But every team would improve its rotation by adding Lopez. He’s exactly what the Twins lacked in previous postseason runs.
The Twins did get solid starts from José Berrios and Kenta Maeda in 2020. Johan Santana was an ace for the Twins in the early 2000s. But Minnesota has also relied on Randy Dobnak, Ervin Santana, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing, Nick Blackburn, Boof Bonser, Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse and Brad Radke to make starts during its now-extinct 18-game playoff losing streak.
All too often, the Twins went into the postseason with a distinct starting pitching disadvantage. The Twins won 101 games during the 2019 regular season. But after losing with Berrios on the mound in Game 1, they asked Dobnak to make a do-or-die Game 2 start in Yankee Stadium. That went as well as you would expect.
Lopez has changed that. He won his first two postseason starts by allowing one run in 5.2 innings against Toronto and dominating Houston for seven shutout innings. Those two postseason wins equals Radke for the most by any Twins pitcher in the 21st century.
By acquiring Lopez to pair with Sonny Gray, Minnesota entered the postseason with the strongest starting pitching it has had in years. It has struggled to produce front-of-the-rotation starters internally, and it has generally found acquiring them on the free agent market to be too expensive. In Lopez, they landed a pitcher that can maintain swing-and-miss stuff deep into outings.
Filling a hole at second base proved to be a much easier problem to solve.
Arraez was about as good as Arraez could be this year. He won a second consecutive batting title and became the first player to hit .350 in a season since 2010.
So how did the Twins’ cope with losing him? His main replacement was Edouard Julien. Jorge Polanco (54 starts at second), Kyle Farmer (20 starts) and Donovan Solano (10 starts) also pitched in.
Julien, a rookie, didn’t win the job for good until mid-June, so he finished with 408 plate appearances compared to Arraez’s 617.
Arraez hit .354/.393/.469 this season. Julien could not come close to matching Arraez’s batting average, but his .263/.381/.459 slash line is actually close to Arraez’s overall. Arraez doesn’t strike out, which is useful, but he also hit into 18 double plays this year (second most in the majors).
Offensively, their numbers were actually quite similar.
Arraez had a 133 OPS+, Julien had a 130 OPS+.
Arraez had a .369 weighted On Base Average (wOBA). Julien’s was .366.
Arraez’s weighted runs created (wRC+) was 132. Julien’s was 136.
Both Arraez and Julien were top-of-the-order hitters who got on base, scored runs and played below-average defense. Arraez’s better contact ability is valuable, but so is Julien’s vastly superior power. Arraez is playable against everyone, while Julien is best off sitting against tough lefties (he hit .196/.229/.217 against lefties and .274/.401/.497 against righties).
I’m not arguing that a team would rather have Julien than Arraez, but the difference is much closer than one would think if you focused purely on batting average. The Marlins also already had an all-star second baseman on their roster in Jazz Chisholm, who moved to center field following Arraez’s arrival.
Additionally, the Twins received minor league infield Jose Salas and outfielder Byron Chourio from Miami. Salas struggled in his first year with Minnesota, but it’s worth noting that the Twins received two additional players in the deal.
More importantly, it’s much easier to find a second baseman than above-average starting pitchers. In addition to Julien and Polanco, the Twins could consider Royce Lewis, 2022 first-round pick Brooks Lee, Tanner Schobel and Austin Martin as long-term candidates to fill the spot. Lewis and Lee are shortstops, but on a team with Carlos Correa, they may need to find somewhere else to play. Moving a shortstop to second base generally produces an above-average defender at second.
We received some other examples of the value of second basemen at the trade deadline. The Rangers acquired Jordan Montgomery from the Cardinals. One of the key pieces they gave up was second baseman Thomas Saggese. Saggese is a quality prospect who had one of the most productive years in the minors this season.
The Rangers felt comfortable trading Saggese because they have Marcus Semien in the majors, as well as Ezequiel Duran as a depth piece on the MLB roster. And Justin Foscue is not too far away in the minors.
The Orioles’ trade for Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty has not gone as well, but who was a key piece in the Cardinals’ return? Infielder/second baseman Cesar Prieto. The Orioles were comfortable trading Prieto, who is a solid prospect with Triple-A experience, because they have Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Joey Ortiz and Connor Norby as long-term options at the position. Many of these prospects have position flexibility and aren’t purely second basemen, but that’s part of the point, a whole lot of one-time shortstops can handle second base. And that list didn’t include Adam Frazier who was the Orioles second baseman for much of 2023.
Now, the Cardinals are facing a second base logjam of their own, as Saggese and Prieto both finished the year in Triple-A while Nolan Gorman hit 27 home runs in a solid season at second base for the big league club.
The Dodgers were expecting to field a middle infield of Gavin Lux (last year’s second baseman) and Miguel Vargas this year. Lux was lost for the season to a knee injury and Vargas failed to hold the second base job. So what did they do? They slid all-star Mookie Betts back to second base regularly and still got exceptional all-round production from the position over the second half of the season.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ rotation has limped into the playoffs in much shakier condition.
Both the Twins and Marlins can look back on last offseason’s moves with some satisfaction, as both teams made the playoffs. This is a trade where both players lived up to each team’s hopes.
But when it comes to this trade, there does seem to be a clear winner, because it’s a lot harder to find starting pitchers who can impact a postseason series.
