The Comp: Comparing Max Fried To James Paxton

Player comparisons can be taken too far, but at their best, they are very useful for scouts, because they allow a scout to explain a player in shorthand. At times comps also help reveal an analogous player from the past who further explains a current prospect’s potential path. With that in mind, here’s a look at a current prospect and a doppelganger from the prospect past.

THE PROSPECT

Max Fried, LHP, Braves

B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 200. Age: 23.

2017 Stat Line: 2-11, 5.54, 8.6 H/9, 4.4 BB/9, 8.9 K/9 between Double-A and Triple-A. 1-1, 3.81, 10.4 H/9, 4.2 BB/9, 7.6 K/9 in 26 MLB IP.

Current Scouting Report: Fried’s fastball/curveball combo are devastating at their best. Fried’s plus curve has long been his biggest weapon. He loosens it up as a 72-74 mph get-over pitch early in counts, but then tightens it into a harder, sharper-breaking 75-77 mph swing-and-miss pitch later in counts. Fried’s 92-93 mph fastball touches 96-97 at its hottest. It is an above-average pitch, but Fried’s currently below-average fastball command limits its effectiveness. His fringe-average changeup is a usable pitch Fried unveils against righthanded hitters, but he’s a fastball/curveball pitcher almost exclusively against lefties. Fried fields his position well and has a dangerous pickoff move. He toys with hitters’ timing by varying his time over the rubber in his delivery.

THE COMP

James Paxton, LHP, Mariners

B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 220. Age: 24 in 2013.

2013 Stat Line: 8-11, 4.45, 9.8 H/9, 3.6 BB/9, 8.1 K/9 in Triple-A. 3-0, 1.50, 5.6 H/9, 2.6 BB/9, 7.9 K/9 in 24 MLB IP.

Like Fried, Paxton was a first-round pick who took a while to develop. Unlike Fried, he was a college pitcher, but their strengths (plus fastball and curveball) and weaknesses (durability issues, control problems and a less-developed changeup) match up pretty well.

2013 Prospect Handbook Scouting Report: Paxton took the long road to Seattle, the team he grew up rooting for in British Columbia. A supplemental first-round pick in 2009 by the Blue Jays, he didn’t sign and didn’t return to college after Jays president Paul Beeston told a Toronto newspaper he had negotiated with Paxton’s agent Scott Boras, effectively ending Paxton’s eligibility. He went on to play independent ball, and the Mariners drafted him in 2010, finally signing him for $942,500 in March 2011. Paxton’s fastball runs anywhere from 91-98 mph, though his velocity fluctuates because the long-limbed lefty can have trouble repeating his mechanics. His hammer curveball is a plus pitch, sitting in the low 80s at its best, but Paxton also has trouble throwing it for strikes consistently. His cutter and changeup lag behind the other two pitches. Paxton tightened his delivery considerably late in 2013, which allowed him to pitch well when he was called up to the major leagues for the first time in September. Paxton will get a chance to win a spot in the big league rotation in spring training. If he throws enough strikes, he could be a mid-rotation starter. If he moves to the bullpen, he has the stuff to pitch high-leverage innings.

WHAT’S HAPPENED

Paxton has developed into that solid mid-rotation starter that the Mariners envisioned. He’s significantly cut his walk rate as a big leaguer, which has allowed him to remain a starter, and his stuff allows him to dominate at his best. The durability problems have remained, in part because of knee issues. Paxton has averaged only 18 starts a year over the past five seasons, but when he’s on the mound, he’s been a very effective lefty.

Fried’s fastball has a tick less power than Paxton’s, but otherwise the comparisons of their strengths and weaknesses match up pretty well. Like Paxton, Fried will have to throw more strikes to be a mid-rotation starter for the Braves, but as Paxton has shown, it’s possible for a young lefty to learn improved control in on-the-job training in the big leagues.