SEC Baseball: Six Questions Entering Conference Play
Image credit: Charlie Condon (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
After four weeks of non-conference action, SEC baseball this weekend opens conference play.
We’ve learned a fair amount about these teams through the first four weeks of the season, but there are still some big questions to be answered. Is Georgia for real? What’s going on with Florida’s pitching?
Here, we try to answer those questions and a few more that are facing the league as conference play begins.
NCAA Top 25
Our latest college baseball Top 25 rankings entering another weekend of action.
Is Georgia’s hot start real?
The Bulldogs have raced out to a 17-1 start and will carry a nine-game winning streak into the start of SEC play. First-year coach Wes Johnson has the Bulldogs off to their best start in program history. That’s loud. But Georgia’s weekend opponents have been UNC Asheville, Northern Kentucky, Georgia Tech and Northern Colorado. The Yellow Jackets (12-4) are a solid team, but UNCA, Northern Kentucky and Northern Colorado all ranked 201+ in RPI last season. Even Tuesday’s win against Iowa, the preseason Big Ten favorite, would have looked good a few weeks ago, but the Hawkeyes are just 7-9 this season. And Georgia has played just three games away from home, all in the state and two of which came at neutral sites.
So, what does it all mean for the Bulldogs? 17-1 against any schedule is hard to do in baseball. Georgia is improved from last season, but it’s also fair to view it with skepticism at this stage. We’re going to learn a lot more about Georgia in the next few weeks. It this weekend travels to Kentucky for its SEC opener and first road test of the season. A series at home against No. 18 Alabama and a visit to No. 6 Tennessee follow.
Can South Carolina’s pitching staff keep this up?
Pitching was supposed to be the Gamecocks’ big question entering the season. All they’ve done through the first 17 games, however, is pitch to a 2.21 team ERA, the second best in the nation. Eli Jones (2-0, 1.40) and Dylan Eskew (2-1, 2.89) have formed a strong 1-2 punch at the front of the rotation and there are a plethora of quality arms behind them in the bullpen.
I’m bullish, but I’ve been bullish on South Carolina since the preseason. If you’re more skeptical, that’s fair given the schedule. Outside of the abbreviated series against Clemson (when the Gamecocks held the Tigers to 10 runs in 21 innings), it’s been light, nearly all at home and all in the state. That changes this weekend when they travel to Mississippi. Ultimately, I think this is a strong pitching staff, but it’s not likely the elite one that it’s production so far has indicated.
Have the Mississippi schools turned a corner?
The season began slowly for both Mississippi and Mississippi State. The Rebels started 2-4 and lost their first two home games to Arkansas State and High Point. The Bulldogs were 3-4 with home losses to Air Force, Austin Peay and Georgia Southern. Now, however, both teams are 13-5 going into SEC play. Are the turnarounds real?
Ole Miss feels like it has worked through some things. It’s averaging 10.58 runs per game since that 2-4 start and its pitching staff has given up more than five runs just twice. Mississippi State’s schedule has lessened, of late, but it did pick up a win against Southern Miss (11-6).
I think Ole Miss has proven more than Mississippi State in non-conference play, but both face much larger tests this weekend. The Rebels host No. 12 South Carolina, while the Bulldogs host No. 2 LSU. If either team did turn a corner, we’ll truly find out this weekend.
Can Florida’s pitching turn it around?
At 10-6, the Gators are off to their worst start since 2014 and in large part that falls on the pitching staff. Their 5.72 team ERA ranks last in the SEC and on Tuesday they gave up 12 runs in a loss to Florida State, the most they had surrendered against the Seminoles since 2008. Lefthander Jac Caglianone (2-0, 1.80) and righthander Ryan Slater (1-0, 3.15) has emerged as a reliable reliever. Otherwise, Florida has struggled for answers on the mound.
Coach Kevin O’Sullivan built Florida into a powerhouse based on pitching and defense, which has remained strong this season (.984 fielding percentage). It’s early and Florida has not played an easy slate. But to be last in the SEC in pitching is jarring. And there are not easy fixes. O’Sullivan after Sunday’s victory against Saint Mary’s talked about reordering the rotation, but the harsh reality is that Florida doesn’t have anyone knocking the door down to grab a starting spot. If lefthander Pierce Coppola can get healthy that would help, but he’s still working his way back from surgery and won’t be ready for another few weeks.
So, Florida needs Opening Day starter Cade Fisher (1-1, 7.56), star freshman Liam Peterson (1-1, 5.06) and all-SEC closer Brandon Neely (0-0, 8.00) to get on track. And it needs that rebound to happen quickly. Florida faces No. 5 Texas A&M (17-0) and travels to No. 2 LSU (15-2) over the next two weekends.
Does Kentucky have enough offense?
The Wildcats are 14-3 and were humming along well until last weekend when they lost a home series to Kennesaw State, which beat them 13-1 in eight innings Friday and 10-2 Saturday. The Wildcats are last in the SEC in scoring at 7.4 runs per game. They’re also last in batting (.270), on-base percentage (.404) and slugging (.430). They’ve dealt with a few injuries – shortstop Grant Smith has missed the last week – but this is a significant drop off from a team that hit .290/.413/.446 in 2023.
Kentucky’s small-ball approach is different from the rest of the conference and means they’ll never top the charts in slugging. I think it’s fair to have some concerns about the lineup, which lost its top two hitters from a season ago (Jackson Gray and Hunter Gilliam). Slugger Nick Lopez (.367/.400/.633), a transfer from Southern California, is doing his best to replace them, but the Wildcats could really use another impact hitter to step up.
Will the SEC player of the year race come down to Jac Caglianone and Charlie Condon or can someone else break through?
Condon has been otherworldly so far this season. He’s hitting .569/.670/1.308 with 13 home runs, 18 walks and 10 strikeouts in 18 games. He leads the nation in batting, on-base percentage, slugging, home runs and hits (37). You could not ask for a better start to the season. Caglianone is hitting .412/.500/.647 with five home runs, 11 walks and seven strikeouts and is 2-0, 1.80 with 27 strikeouts and eight walks in 15 innings on the mound.
No one could be surprised if the award race came down to Caglianone and Condon. But, even as good as they’ve been, they haven’t completely separated from the pack, however. Alabama’s Gage Miller is hitting .478/.548/.910 with eight home runs. Mississippi State outfielder Dakota Jordan is hitting .419/.550/.968 with nine home runs. Texas A&M outfielder Braden Montgomery is hitting .403/.543/.871 with seven home runs. Tennessee’s Billy Amick and Florida’s Colby Shelton both have nine home runs. And while Tommy White (.318/.410/.439, 2 HR) is off to a slower start, he can hardly be counted out.
All that means the next 10 weeks should be a lot of fun.
