RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On May 26, 2024

Complex League Hitters (min 20 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Dameury Pena	MIN	100	100
2	Brailer Guerrero	TBR	89	93
3	Jeremy Rodriguez	NYM	99	92
4	Starlyn Caba	PHI	86	89
5	Edgleen Perez	NYY	84	88
6	Robert Calaz	COL	91	85
7	Andruw Musett	BOS	77	83
8	Enrique Jimenez	DET	80	83
9	Eduardo Quintero	LAD	79	82
10	Demetrio Crisantes	ARI	75	82
11	Larry Martinez	TBR	74	81
12	Filippo Di Turi	MIL	96	80
13	Leandro Arias	BAL	74	80
14	Franyerber Montilla	DET	73	80
15	Franklin Arias	BOS	75	79
16	Welbyn Francisca	CLE	71	77
17	Edwin Amparo	BAL	70	77
18	Yassel Soler	ARI	71	76
19	Brian Sanchez	NYY	69	76
20	Richard Ramirez	PIT	75	75
21	Felnin Celesten	SEA	82	75
22	Yeiker Reyes	COL	78	74
23	Alexander Albertus	LAD	68	74
24	Jhonny Severino	PIT	80	74
25	Mario Baez	ATL	84	73

The catching prospect renaissance continues. A pair of 18-year-old Venezuelan receivers find themselves in the top 10: Enrique Jimenez (Tigers No. 23 prospect) and Andruw Musett (Red Sox). Jimenez was a $1.25 million international signing for Detroit in 2023 on the strength of his switch-hitting gap power and athleticism behind the dish. The Red Sox signed Musett for only $90,000. So far in 2024, they are showing similar hitting profiles at the Complex League. 

They both have an OPS above .900, more walks than strikeouts, and—more concerningly—groundball rates above 50%. They’re also showing similar Statcast data: plus contact rates, plus swing decisions for the level, along with solidly average exit velocities and barrel rates. Tigers catching prospect Josue Briceno is an obvious comparison after dominating the FCL last year. But to put it in context, although Musett and Jimenez are performing at a level one standard deviation above the average Complex League hitter, neither have been as dominant as Briceno was in 2023. One interesting defensive note? Mussett has thrown out 55% of base stealers, though he has played first base as often as catcher. 

Two other 19-year-old middle infielders, Demetrio Crisantes (Diamondbacks) and Franyerber Montilla (Tigers), find themselves near the top of the rankings. They both have huge Statcast data and more walks than strikeouts. 

Crisantes may even be a better prospect than fellow D-backs prospect Yassel Soler, who we discussed last week. Amongst Complex League hitters with 40 plate appearances or more (over 170 hitters), Cristante has the 11th-highest contact rate and the 12th-highest barrel rate, with a Z-Swing% minus O-Swing%—a proxy for swing decisions—of nearly 17% ranking 11th. That’s the trifecta of Statcast ingredients we look for: swing decisions, contact skills, and an ability to barrel the ball with authority—including a 90th percentile exit velocity above 104 mph. The Arizona prep product also has plus speed. Crisantes is one of the hitters I’m most eager to see promoted to full-season ball. He’s a target for me this week.

Meanwhile, we identified Montilla as a name to know outside the Tigers’ Top 30 prior to the season. He’s an athletic middle infielder with a plus arm and a solid hit tool. Although he repeated the DSL in 2023, improving his contact and barrel rates, he has really taken a step forward stateside, ranking 14th and 25th respectively for contact rate and barrel rate for Complex League hitters with 40 plate appearances or more. He has shown even better swing decisions than Crisantes and has already exceeded his 2023 maximum exit velocity on two occasions this year.

Despite being older, I would have both Crisantes and Montilla well ahead of Musett and Jimenez on any prospect list.

Angels LHP Sadiel Baro turned in the best pitching performance of the week, striking out 15 batters over 10.2 innings with only one walk. He has a 29% strikeout-minus-walk rate and a 68% groundball rate this year. 

Despite limited data, the Cuban has a quite interesting arsenal. He showed a six-pitch mix last year that didn’t seem overly impressive. He showed an 88 mph fastball from a high release point and extremely short extension and a 77 mph curveball that has some two-plane movement. RoboScout is exercising caution when folding in the Stuff+.

Low-A Hitters (min 45 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Colt Emerson	SEA	96	100
2	Lazaro Montes	SEA	100	100
3	Jeral Perez	LAD	85	96
4	Jonny Farmelo	SEA	84	92
5	Aidan Smith	SEA	90	92
6	Kevin McGonigle	DET	77	89
7	Jaison Chourio	CLE	79	89
8	Ralphy Velazquez	CLE	83	86
9	Alfredo Duno	CIN	82	86
10	Zyhir Hope	LAD	71	85
11	Josue Briceno	DET	72	84
12	Tai Peete	SEA	76	83
13	Cristofer Torin	ARI	73	83
14	Max Clark	DET	73	83
15	Jesus Baez	NYM	72	82
16	Blake Mitchell	KCR	74	80
17	Angel Genao	CLE	65	80
18	Josue De Paula	LAD	63	78
19	Aidan Miller	PHI	67	77
20	Marco Vargas	NYM	60	77
21	Thomas Sosa	BAL	63	76
22	Jean Joseph	TOR	61	75
23	Bryce Eldridge	SFG	66	75
24	Yophery Rodriguez	MIL	77	75
25	Michael Arroyo	SEA	70	75

We’ve yet to call out Blue Jays outfielder Jean Joseph despite showing up on the Low-A hitting list the past few weeks. A 2022 international signee via the Dominican Republic, Joseph had good center field instincts and athleticism, but needed to develop power. He’s splitting time between right and center field this year and his 90th percentile exit velocities and barrel rates have improved improved each of the last three years. Couple that with his better-than-average swing decisions and plus contact rate and we have the ingredients for a potential outfield regular. In the interest of irresponsibility, below are a comparison of some key Statcast metrics between Joseph and another 19-year-old international outfielder: Lazaro Montes (Mariners No. 4 prospect).

	Contact%	zContact%	90thEV	“Barrel”%	Max EV	Chase%
L Montes	71%	75%	104 mph	18%	108 mph	24%
J Joseph	77%	85%	102 mph	17%	107 mph	17%

Yes, Montes outshines him in the power metrics but Joseph has a significant advantage in his swing decisions and contact ability. He’s an underrated outfielder in 2024.

Marco Vargas (Mets No. 17 prospect) was a standout in 2023 with the Marlins and finished the season with the Mets—after being traded for David Robertson—with the third-highest on-base percentage in the FCL. With outstanding bat-to-ball skills, the concern has been about the second baseman’s ability to provide impact on contact. Well, in 2024, he’s improved even further on his hit tool, lowering his swinging strike rate to below 5% and ranking in the top five in contact rate at Low-A.

Still, the ISO is in the 20th percentile. Additionally, his groundball rate has ballooned to above 55% as he’s raised his pull rate to above 40% for the first time in his career. The scouting report remains the same: excellent bat control and swing decisions but questions continue about his ability to inflict damage. Having just turned 19 years old a few weeks ago, RoboScout still thinks the hit tool is strong enough to rank in the top 25 at the level.

Angel Genao (Guardians No. 12 prospect) continues to climb up the RoboScout Low-A rankings. He’s one of two 20-year-olds in the top 25—Phillies No. 4 prospect Aidan Miller is the other. 

Prior to the year, it was unclear whether Genao could stick at shortstop or would inevitably slide to third base to take advantage of his arm strength. Genao appears to have improved defensively. Much like Vargas, Genao has precocious bat-to-ball ability—though is much more of a free-swinger—but has significantly more power, with five home runs on the year already and a barrel rate that is 12th amongst hitters 20 or younger who have at least 100 plate appearances. 

Also like Vargas, Genao has a groundball rate that is above 50% but encouragingly has a much higher proportion of his balls in play fall between 10 and 30%—actually higher than league average—indicating that there is much less of a launch angle concern with Genao. Having just left his teenage years a week ago, the arrow is way up on Genao, especially if he can stick at shortstop.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Matt Wilkinson	CLE	100	100
2	Jonah Tong	NYM	90	97
3	Quinn Mathews	STL	84	95
4	George Klassen	PHI	80	92
5	Santiago Suarez	TBR	76	88
6	Bishop Letson	MIL	77	88
7	Alejandro Rosario	TEX	73	86
8	Didier Fuentes	ATL	74	85
9	Yujanyer Herrera	MIL	83	85
10	Franklin Gomez	NYM	76	82
11	Luis Serna	NYY	75	81
12	Thomas White	MIA	70	80
13	Manuel Rodriguez	MIL	75	80
14	Michael Forret	BAL	72	80
15	Gary Gill Hill	TBR	75	79
16	Welinton Herrera	COL	65	78
17	Jace Kaminska	COL	68	78
18	Barrett Kent	LAA	69	78
19	Luis De Leon	BAL	73	77
20	Josh Grosz	NYY	66	77
21	Kohl Drake	TEX	73	77
22	Jarlin Susana	WSN	61	76
23	Tyler Gough	SEA	59	76
24	Noble Meyer	MIA	64	75
25	Jedixson Paez	BOS	75	75

Didier Fuentes ranked 23rd last week and then—poof!—he’s now eighth after dissecting Low-A Kannapoliks on Wednesday. He struck out 11 batters and walked none over five innings predominantly utilizing a two-pitch mix. The four-seam fastball sits 93 mph with an extremely flat VAA. He relies on it nearly two-thirds of the time, and why not? It generates whiffs over 35% of the time coming in with with high extension and an extremely low-release slot. The 83 mph slider has bullet spin and is a solid complement. On the season, the 19-year-old has a 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate—but over his last five starts, he has had a 34% strikeout rate.

Keep an eye on Rockies reliever Welinton Herrera. He’s the highest-ranked Low-A relief pitcher on the list, even despite getting dinged for having the lower future expected fantasy value of a bullpen arm. Herrera has a 47% strikeout rate, only a 5% walk rate, and a 71% groundball rate on the season. The lefthander has been even more unhittable recently with a 0.49 WHIP and 0.00 ERA over his last nine appearances spanning 15 innings. 

The 20-year-old reliever has a 94 mph four-seam fastball that comes in extremely flat from a low release, leading to a 49% whiff rate—more than double the average whiff rate for a Low-A four-seam fastball. His slider comes in at 83 mph and has bullet spin, getting slightly below-average whiffs but that he lands for strikes. From a movement and velocity point of view, his slider comps quite closely to Samuel Aldegheri (Phillies No. 12 prospect) which we have graded as a 50. The only other three pitchers who were in their age-20 season or younger and posted a higher strikeout minus walk rate in Low-A with at least 10 innings pitched since 2006 were Craig Kimbrel (2008), Chris Paddack (2016) and Jaime Melendez (2021). Strong company.

High-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Luke Keaschall	MIN	100	100
2	Carter Jensen	KCR	96	96
3	Sal Stewart	CIN	87	87
4	Alex Freeland	LAD	80	84
5	Xavier Isaac	TBR	81	84
6	Yohendrick Pinango	CHC	77	81
7	Jefferson Rojas	CHC	77	79
8	Ethan Salas	SDP	92	78
9	Mike Boeve	MIL	72	78
10	Luke Adams	MIL	76	78
11	Cam Collier	CIN	80	77
12	Jay Allen II	CIN	82	77
13	Thayron Liranzo	LAD	78	77
14	Sebastian Walcott	TEX	88	77
15	Samuel Zavala	CHW	74	76
16	Hector Rodriguez	CIN	71	75
17	C.J. Kayfus	CLE	72	75
18	Henry Bolte	OAK	79	74
19	Nate Furman	CLE	67	74
20	Ricardo Olivar	MIN	67	72
21	Joe Mack	MIA	72	71
22	Hendry Mendez	PHI	68	70
23	Pedro Ramirez	CHC	69	69
24	Rubel Cespedes	MIN	60	67
25	Will Simpson	OAK	61	67

Rangers prospect Sebastian Walcott is quietly getting hot after a slow start. He has three home runs, three steals and a 119 wRC+ in his last 100 plate appearances after posting a 38 wRC+ in his first 50 plate appearances. He chased 25% of the time entering May, but has cut it to an excellent 15% this month, bringing his season rate down to a one-standard-deviation-better-than-average 20.5% on the year. We all know about his incredible power—he has had more than seven balls off the bat recorded at over 106 mph—and boasts the highest 90th percentile exit velocity and max exit velocity among teenagers in High-A, including Cam Collier.

Another slow starter, Samuel Zavala (White Sox No. 7 prospect) has also turned it on in May. After hitting an anemic .185/.254/.296 in his first 60 plate appearances with only one home run, the former Padre has a 108 wRC+ in his last 100 plate appearances. Although the batting average is still just barely above the Mendoza line—heretofore referred to as the “Gallo line”—Zavala raised his contact rate from 70% in his first 60 plate appearances to 75% on the year.

More encouragingly, in 2023 over 515 plate appearances, Zavala had a maximum exit velocity of just over 106.7 mph (with a 90th percentile exit velocity of 101 mph). Already in 2024, the outfielder has had nine instances of balls of the bat exceeding 105 mph and set a new maximum exit velocity of 111 mph. A once-highly ranked fantasy prospect, it will be interesting to see how the rest of 2024 plays out, but so far the results have been encouraging.

Ricardo Olivar (Twins) didn’t make our Twins Top 30 but is showing a solidly red Statcast profile. In 2023, he had above-average marks for contact rate, barrel rate, chase rate, and 90th percentile exit velocity. In 2024, he’s met or exceeded each of these metrics while adding more velocity. Playing approximately two-thirds of his games behind the dish, and one-third split between left field or DH, the Venezuelan is showing an intriguing power bat profile who will pose an interesting Rule 5 decision quandary for the Twins as he will be eligible at the end of the season, along with Rubel Cespedes. RoboScout thinks the Twins should probably add both to the 40-man roster.

Finally, two players in the High-A Top 10 have slumped significantly: Jefferson Rojas (Cubs No. 5 prospect) has zero home runs and only a 66 wRC+ in his last 115 plate appearances and Cam Collier (Reds No. 3 prospect) has a .186/.243/.335 slash line, though with three home runs, over that same time period.

High-A Pitchers (min 13 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Noah Schultz	CHW	99	100
2	Luis Perales	BOS	98	99
3	Owen Murphy	ATL	100	98
4	Zebby Matthews	MIN	88	90
5	Jaden Hamm	DET	96	89
6	Chase Dollander	COL	87	89
7	Brett Wichrowski	MIL	84	84
8	Winston Santos	TEX	81	84
9	Moises Chace	BAL	79	82
10	Sean Sullivan	COL	94	81
11	Trevor Martin	TBR	85	80
12	Edgar Portes	BAL	76	80
13	Quinn Mathews	STL	79	80
14	Nolan McLean	NYM	74	79
15	Andry Lara	WSN	86	76
16	Alessandro Ercolani	PIT	70	76
17	Juan Daniel Encarnacion	BOS	74	75
18	Jake Bloss	HOU	71	75
19	Andrew Morris	MIN	82	75
20	Peter Heubeck	LAD	74	74
21	Rhett Lowder	CIN	78	74
22	Juan Nunez	BAL	71	74
23	Joseph Montalvo	TEX	75	73
24	Cam Schlittler	NYY	70	73
25	Mitch Bratt	TEX	81	73

Red Sox RHP Luis Perales ranked fifth last week, then exploded for a 12-strikeout performance at the beginning of the week that Josh Norris happened to catch and write about here. Perales has the highest swinging strike rate among all High-A pitchers since April 20 who have accrued at least 11 innings, the fourth-highest strikeout rate, and has managed to keep his walk rate below 9% during that span of 21 innings.

Rangers No. 29 prospect Joseph Montalvo has crept into the top 25 after performing like a top-five pitcher in the last month. This past week, the 24-year-old Puerto Rican righthander hurled 11 innings, striking out 17 hapless batters while only walking one. The 2021 20th-round draft pick has a three-pitch mix headlined by an 80 mph slider that has over 13 inches of horizontal break and gets over 40% whiffs while limiting damage against it to the tune of a .150 xwOBA.

His four-seam fastball is “only” 92 mph but he has over six and a half feet of extension on it, leading it to play up and generate above average whiffs. Interestingly, two weeks ago, he hadn’t hit 93 mph on the gun yet, but has reached 94 mph in the last two weeks. The concern with Montalvo has been his ability to command his pitches, and his 38% ball% on the season for his fastball shows it’s still a work-in-progress. However, judging from his 6% walk rate over his last 24 innings, he is making progress and has put himself in a better position to become a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Double-A Hitters (min 50 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Agustin Ramirez	NYY	100	100
2	Carson Williams	TBR	96	96
3	Emmanuel Rodriguez	MIN	95	92
4	Alex Freeland	LAD	87	90
5	Matthew Lugo	BOS	89	88
6	Moises Ballesteros	CHC	82	86
7	Harry Ford	SEA	86	86
8	Cole Young	SEA	81	84
9	Roman Anthony	BOS	77	81
10	Jett Williams	NYM	75	79
11	Zac Veen	COL	79	74
12	Samuel Basallo	BAL	79	74
13	Deyvison De Los Santos	ARI	82	71
14	Jacob Wilson	OAK	71	71
15	Dylan Beavers	BAL	75	71
16	Colby Thomas	OAK	67	70
17	Marcelo Mayer	BOS	66	69
18	James Triantos	CHC	64	69
19	Mike Boeve	MIL	61	69
20	Brady House	WSN	79	69
21	Tyler Locklear	SEA	68	69
22	Brooks Baldwin	CHW	68	68
23	Nacho Alvarez Jr.	ATL	67	68
24	Benjamin Cowles	NYY	65	67
25	Edgar Quero	CHW	63	67

On April 20, Mariners top prospect Cole Young had no home runs and an 87 wRC+ in 57 plate appearances. It appeared on the surface that perhaps being assigned to Double-A Arkansas at 20 years old was too aggressive. Since then, however, in just under 120 plate appearances, he’s hit four bombs while stealing four bases and chipped in a wRC+ of 120. As one of only seven players who are 20 years old or younger in Double-A, Young is in the 90th percentile for avoiding strikeouts and RoboScout sees him as a hitter with above-average batting average and on-base ability, 20 home run power at peak and 10 to 15 stolen bases. Add in the fact that he also plays solid up-the-middle defense and you have an easy top-50 fantasy prospect.

Alex Freeland (Dodgers No. 27 prospect) has not stopped hitting since being promoted to Double-A at the end of April. He has a 185 wRC+, three home runs and six stolen bases at the level with more walks than strikeouts. Continuing to show his excellent swing decisions, and maintain the incredible halving of his whiff rate from 2023, Freeland is one of the top breakouts of 2024 for me.

After beginning the Double-A season as the youngest hitter in the league, Nelson Rada (Angels No. 2 prospect) started off abysmally slow with a 32 wRC+ in his first 53 plate appearances. Since then, the Angels outfielder has a 116 wRC+ with 15 stolen bases in just over 100 plate appearances. As a reminder, he is the youngest hitter in the league and on the season has a lower strikeout rate than Carson Williams (Rays No. 2 prospect), Emmanuel Rodriguez (Twins No. 2 prospect) and Roman Anthony (Red Sox No. 1 prospect) while having a higher on-base percentage than James Triantos (Cubs No. 10 prospect) and Samuel Basallo (Orioles No. 2 prospect). 

There are certainly valid concerns. Rada has a 58% groundball rate. His exit velocities are much improved from last year: His 90th percentile exit velocity is higher than Kyle Teel (Red Sox No. 3 prospect) for example, and a maximum exit velocity that is nearly 6 mph higher than Jett Williams (Mets No. 1 prospect). But his 6% barrel rate speaks to his inability to actualize his hardest hit balls at the ideal launch angles. Although he is not currently on the season rankings on account of his slow start, his solid May would have him firmly in the top 20 Double-A rankings if RoboScout ignored the first three weeks of the season.

Double-A Pitchers (min 13 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Zebby Matthews	MIN	97	100
2	Yilber Diaz	ARI	100	98
3	Chandler Champlain	KCR	99	95
4	Carson Palmquist	COL	94	94
5	Tink Hence	STL	99	92
6	Ben Casparius	LAD	87	91
7	Blade Tidwell	NYM	86	91
8	Spencer Schwellenbach	ATL	97	90
9	Ian Seymour	TBR	100	90
10	Miguel Ullola	HOU	84	88
11	Justin Wrobleski	LAD	86	88
12	Zach Penrod	BOS	94	87
13	Brandon Young	BAL	95	87
14	Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	87	86
15	Kyle McGowin	CHC	84	85
16	Jackson Jobe	DET	79	85
17	Mason Adams	CHW	94	85
18	Mason Barnett	KCR	88	84
19	Ian Mejia	ATL	90	84
20	Tyler Stuart	NYM	85	83
21	Ty Madden	DET	88	83
22	Jake Bloss	HOU	80	83
23	Cameron Weston	BAL	86	81
24	Tyler Woessner	MIL	95	80
25	Doug Nikhazy	CLE	82	80

Braves righty Spencer Schwellenbach has made a big impression at Double-A despite only making two appearances at the level. He debuts at eighth after striking out 39% of batters and walking just 2% through 13 innings. The 24-year-old throws a 95 mph four-seam and an 86 mph slider that’s two ticks faster than 2023. Both get above-average whiffs and an above-average xwOBA against both (compared to league average for both offerings). He also adds in a curveball and an effective changeup. Injury risk was the concern for the former two-way player and so far in 2024 he seems to be showing excellent durability, going six innings and seven innings respectively in his last two starts. For more details on the pitch mix, read Geoff’s Friday Intel piece here. 

Another 24-year-old Braves pitcher popping recently in Double-A—and was promoted to Triple-A earlier this week—is Ian Mejia, who famously was part of a no-hitter last week, striking out 11 over seven innings and only walking two. Primarily a fastball/slider mix with a changeup thrown in for good measure, Mejia doesn’t have eye-popping stuff—his fastball only averages 92 mph—but he commands its above-average ride characteristics and it has limited opposing quality of contact in 2024.

In his first 14.1 innings to start the year, preseason revelation Logan Evans (Mariners No. 7 prospect) had a 4.6 K/9, walked more than he struck out and only managed to get hitters to swing and miss at 7% of his pitches. Since that time, the 12th-round pick has a 0.87 WHIP, an identical 0.87 ERA, and a 53% groundball rate over his last 31 innings as he is starting to command and sequence his six-pitch mix better.

Triple-A Hitters (min 45 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	James Wood	WSN	100	100
2	Heston Kjerstad	BAL	86	89
3	Coby Mayo	BAL	83	87
4	Jackson Holliday	BAL	85	87
5	Jose Fermin	STL	80	86
6	Kyle Manzardo	CLE	75	83
7	Miguel Vargas	LAD	73	79
8	Jonah Bride	MIA	71	77
9	Niko Kavadas	BOS	69	75
10	Andy Pages	LAD	69	74
11	Joey Loperfido	HOU	73	73
12	Tyler Black	MIL	66	72
13	Addison Barger	TOR	63	71
14	Javier Sanoja	MIA	62	71
15	Junior Caminero	TBR	67	70
16	Ji Hwan Bae	PIT	65	70
17	Jonatan Clase	SEA	62	67
18	Caleb Durbin	NYY	66	67
19	Chase Meidroth	BOS	57	67
20	Isaac Collins	MIL	55	67
21	Daniel Schneemann	CLE	60	66
22	Heliot Ramos	SFG	55	65
23	Orelvis Martinez	TOR	65	64
24	Jordan Beck	COL	57	64
25	Enmanuel Valdez	BOS	52	63

Marlins No. 21 prospect Javier Sanoja is interesting. He’s one of six Triple-A hitters in their age-21 season or younger, and fits the Jose Fermin (Cardinals), Marco Vargas (Mets No. 17 prospect) and Chase Meidroth (Red Sox No. 12 prospect) mold of excellent bat-to-ball skills but not much oomph. In just over 120 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors, Sanoja hit his first home run yesterday and has only three stolen bases. But he’s striking out at a sub-6% clip, the second-lowest rate behind Fermin. Despite playing against pitchers who are six years older than him on average, Sanoja has managed to increase his 90th percentile exit velocity, reduced his chase rate, and increased his contact and barrel rates from 2023 when he spent most of the year in Low-A. 

His 112 wRC+ at 21 years old in Triple-A implies he should be an above-average hitter in the majors with batting averages that could get as high as .280 to .290. He might not be any more impactful than 10 to 12 home runs and 10 to 12 stolen bases, but for those who value the potential Luis Arraez types in fantasy, that looks to be his ceiling, with Nick Madrigal as the likelier profile. With a 5.6% strikeout rate, Sanoja has the 10th-lowest strikeout rate since 2016 amongst hitters age 23 or younger with over 70 plate appearances and the second lowest amongst 21 year olds. Just to put it into perspective, in 2019 Arraez was 22 years old in Triple-A and had a 2.7% strikeout rate while Madrigal was 22 years old in Triple-A in and had a 3.7% strikeout rate.

Old friend alert! Pedro Leon has always shown loud tools but his below-average hit tool has hampered his performance since he arrived on the scene in 2021. The Astros prospect has never posted a strikeout rate below 28% in the minors. Now 26, it seemed like Leon may never actualize his potential as a center fielder with a huge arm. But so far in 2024, his 23% strikeout rate is the lowest of his professional career and he owns a .301/.386/.568 slash line with 10 home runs and 12 stolen bases. 

In his first 80 plate appearances in 2024, it looked like more of the same song: he had a 27% strikeout rate and only one home run. Since then, however, he’s had a 150 wRC+ and hit nine home runs over 124 plate appearances, adding eight bags. Comparing his Statcast year over year, he’s reduced his chase rate by six percentage points and added 3 mph to his 90th percentile exit velocity while holding most of the other metrics at his career norms. Whether the swing-decision improvements and newly-consistent hard contact holds is still up for debate, but for the fun of it, let’s compare his statcast data to Owen Caissie (Cubs No. 4 prospect), who it should be noted is five years younger than the Cuban:

	Contact%	zContact%	90thEV	“Barrel”%	Max EV	Chase%
P Leon	70%	79%	109 mph	17%	114 mph	23%
O Caissie	70%	80%	108 mph	13%	115 mph	24%

The Astros have just gotten Chas McCormick back from injury and Jake Meyers has been hitting well too, so it’s not clear whether Leon will get a playing time opportunity this year. But if he does, RoboScout expects per plate appearance performance in the Sam Hilliard and (pre-2024) Dylan Moore mold: above-average power and speed while trading off batting average and conducive to streaks.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 12 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Paul Skenes	PIT	100	100
2	Christian Scott	NYM	92	92
3	Jack Leiter	TEX	90	89
4	Cade Povich	BAL	89	80
5	Matt Manning	DET	76	78
6	David Festa	MIN	83	78
7	Louie Varland	MIN	78	76
8	Chayce McDermott	BAL	75	76
9	Brant Hurter	DET	76	75
10	Mason Black	SFG	72	74
11	Tobias Myers	MIL	69	74
12	Elieser Hernandez	LAD	70	72
13	Carson Spiers	CIN	69	72
14	Robert Gasser	MIL	67	71
15	Will Warren	NYY	66	71
16	Alek Manoah	TOR	74	71
17	Quinn Priester	PIT	81	71
18	Chad Patrick	MIL	71	71
19	Gerson Garabito	TEX	71	69
20	Osvaldo Bido	OAK	70	69
21	Albert Suarez	BAL	73	68
22	Jacob Waguespack	TBR	77	68
23	Joe Rock	TBR	77	68
24	Shaun Anderson	TEX	70	67
25	Jhonathan Diaz	SEA	79	67

The two hottest pitchers in Triple-A the last five weeks have been Chayce McDermott (Orioles No. 7 prospect) and David Festa (Twins No. 5 prospect) who have put up near identical lines (through Friday’s games) with the notable exception of their groundball rates:

	IP	K%	BB%	SwStrk%	IP/G	GB%
Chayce McDermott	26	40.3%	9.2%	16.5%	4.3	22%
David Festa	21.2	40.4%	9.0%	16.4%	4.2	43.5%

They both have above-average four-seam, slider and changeup arsenals that each elicit an above-average whiff rate compared to league average—and both mix in the occasional curveball.The surprise of the week belongs to Chad Patrick (Brewers) who struck out 12 batters over five innings, while walking only two and finds himself in the Top 15 as a result. Originally viewed as a depth arm when acquired from the Athletics for Abraham Toro, Patrick has a cutter with high IVB that is his best pitch per Stuff+ and an ultra-flat 93 mph four-seam that generates plus whiffs. Hitters have an xwOBA one standard deviation worse than league average against it. Not a pitcher on my radar even as recently as last week, RoboScout thinks he could very well be a positive contributor in a rotation this year. That’s the stuff we love RoboScout for!