NL West 2024 Preview: Predictions, Player Grades & More
Image credit: Mookie Betts (Photo by David Durochik/Diamond Images via Getty Images)
As part of Baseball America’s season preview, Zach Buchanan asked scouts and executives to weigh in on a number of topics. Industry sources were granted anonymity to speak freely. Quotes are lightly edited for clarity. You can also find Baseball America staffers’ picks and grades for every NL West lineup below.
MLB Predictions 2024: Baseball America’s Ultimate Season Preview
Baseball America is getting fans ready for the start of the 2024 MLB season.
WHAT SCOUTS AND EXECUTIVES ARE SAYING
BEST OFFSEASON
“The Dodgers got Shohei Ohtani and reshaped their rotation. They didn’t block out any of their nearly major league–ready pieces.”
Note: the Dodgers were a popular response, with more than a dozen mentions.
MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFSEASON
“Probably the Padres for a multitude of interconnected reasons: losing their owner, slashing payroll, divesting their top talent (Juan Soto) after years of being on the other end of consolidation trades, adding only Dylan Cease, seeing their major leaguers walk—notably Blake Snell, Josh Hader and Seth Lugo—and entering the year with major holes on their roster.”
BOUNCEBACK PLAYER
“I like Fernando Tatis Jr. to have a big year. I think he’ll remind people why he’s one of the best players in the game.”
BASEBALL AMERICA PREDICTIONS
TOP PLAYER: Mookie Betts, SS, Dodgers
Gavin Lux got hurt in spring training last year. Rookie Miguel Vargas didn’t hit. So when the Dodgers flashed the Betts signal, Mookie answered. After spending eight seasons as the standard in right field, Betts seamlessly moved back to second base, his prospect position from a decade earlier, and turned in his typical excellent season. Betts has one MVP award and three runner-up finishes. He has at least one more MVP season in him.
TOP PITCHER: Logan Webb, RHP, Giants
Webb is one of the more accomplished sinkerballers this century. His 58.2% groundball rate ranks sixth among starting pitchers in that time, trailing Brandon Webb, Framber Valdez, Derek Lowe and others while ranking just ahead of Tim Hudson and Dallas Keuchel. Webb is a bit of a throwback who has increased his workload and effectiveness for three straight seasons, resulting in a runner-up finish for the NL Cy Young Award last season. He might have one more level.
TOP ROOKIE: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP, Dodgers
Winning a major award such as Rookie of the Year would be nothing new for Yamamoto, who won the MVP, Gold Glove and Sawamura awards in each of the past three seasons in Japan’s Pacific League. With plus grades for his fastball, curveball, splitter and control, the 25-year-old Yamamoto is more than ready to assume a role atop the Dodgers rotation.
SOPHOMORE BREAKOUT: Bobby Miller, RHP, Dodgers
Baseball’s hardest-throwing starter is poised to become a household name this season. Miller has unparalleled weaponry and made an impressive entrée into MLB as a rookie last season. His whiff rate ticked up in the second half of 2023, and if that trend translates into more strikeouts in 2024, then he could quickly climb to elite status.
UNDERSTATED STAR: Will Smith, C, Dodgers
Talk about a tough act to follow. Smith bats fourth in the Dodgers’ lineup after the MVP trio of Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. Any hitter could get a bit overshadowed in those conditions, but Smith has held his own as one of the most productive catchers in baseball. Since Smith debuted in 2019, only JT Realmuto has created more runs or compiled more WAR among catchers.
BOUNCEBACK: Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Dodgers
Hernandez and Seattle’s T-Mobile Park were a mismatch made in heaven. The veteran slugger reported not being able to pick up the ball out of the pitcher’s hand in Mariners home games, and the park tends to suppress righthanded power in general. As a result, Hernandez hit just .217/.263/.380 at home last season. Dodger Stadium is much friendlier for righthanded power, meaning that Hernandez’s one-year, $23.5 million deal could turn out to be a bargain, much like J.D. Martinez was for the Dodgers last season.
BEST OF THE DIVISION
C Will Smith LAD
1B Freddie Freeman LAD
2B Ketel Marte ARI
3B Manny Machado SD
SS Mookie Betts LAD
LF Corbin Carroll ARI
CF Jung-Hoo Lee SF
RF Fernando Tatis Jr. SD
DH Shohei Ohtani LAD
SP Logan Webb SF
SP Zac Gallen ARI
SP Yoshinobu Yamamoto LAD
SP Tyler Glasnow LAD
SP Bobby Miller LAD
SP Joe Musgrove SD
CL Camilo Doval SF
PREDICTED STANDINGS
1. Dodgers
2. D-backs
3. Padres
4. Giants
5. Rockies
LINEUPS & GRADES
Each player’s BA Grade reflects his current ability level, not what he was at his peak or what he projects to be in the future. Grades were determined by JJ Cooper, Matt Eddy, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
| Dodgers | Overall BA Grade: 80 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SS | Mookie Betts | 80 |
| DH | Shohei Ohtani | 80 |
| 1B | Freddie Freeman | 75 |
| C | Will Smith | 65 |
| 3B | Max Muncy | 55 |
| CF | James Outman | 55 |
| LF | Teoscar Hernandez | 50 |
| RF | Jason Heyward | 45 |
| 2B | Gavin Lux | 45 |
ON DECK: Andy Pages could use a hot spring training as a springboard to playing time in a Dodgers outfield that could use righthanded presence.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Tyler Glasnow | 60 |
| SP | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 65 |
| SP | Bobby Miller | 60 |
| SP | James Paxton | 50 |
| SP | Gavin Stone | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Evan Phillips | 50 |
| RP | Joe Kelly | 45 |
| RP | Ryan Brasier | 45 |
WARMING UP: Kyle Hurt is next up on the Dodgers’ pitching assembly line. His power stuff would play in any role as needed.
BOLD PREDICTION: The addition of Shohei Ohtani to the core of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman gives Dodgers hitters a chance to lead the league in several categories.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
| D-backs | Overall BA Grade: 55 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| RF | Corbin Carroll | 70 |
| 2B | Ketel Marte | 60 |
| C | Gabriel Moreno | 55 |
| 1B | Christian Walker | 55 |
| DH | Joc Pederson | 45 |
| LF | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 50 |
| 3B | Eugenio Suarez | 50 |
| CF | Alek Thomas | 45 |
| SS | Geraldo Perdomo | 45 |
ON DECK: Jordan Lawlar is the organization’s shortstop of the future, though that future may have to wait a few months.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Zac Gallen | 70 |
| SP | Merrill Kelly | 55 |
| SP | Eduardo Rodriguez | 55 |
| SP | Brandon Pfaadt | 50 |
| SP | Ryne Nelson | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Paul Sewald | 50 |
| RP | Kevin Ginkel | 45 |
| RP | Miguel Castro | 45 |
WARMING UP: After graduating several starters in 2023, the D-backs’ top rookie arm may be Slade Cecconi, a potential slider monster as a reliever.
BOLD PREDICTION: A July slump dropped Carroll in MVP voting as a rookie, but the super soph will take a step forward and win MVP in an improved D-backs lineup.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
| Padres | Overall BA Grade: 50 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| 2B | Xander Bogaerts | 55 |
| RF | Fernando Tatis Jr. | 70 |
| 1B | Jake Cronenworth | 45 |
| 3B | Manny Machado | 65 |
| SS | Ha-Seong Kim | 55 |
| DH | Graham Pauley | 45 |
| C | Luis Campusano | 45 |
| LF | Jurickson Profar | 40 |
| CF | Jackson Merrill | 50 |
ON DECK: Jakob Marsee put up a .413 on-base percentage in the minors and was an AFL standout, putting him on course for a 2024 debut.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Yu Darvish | 55 |
| SP | Joe Musgrove | 60 |
| SP | Dylan Cease | 60 |
| SP | Michael King | 55 |
| SP | Jhony Brito | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Robert Suarez | 50 |
| RP | Yuki Matsui | 45 |
| RP | Enyel De Los Santos | 45 |
WARMING UP: With prospects Drew Thorpe and Jairo Iriarte traded for Cease, Adam Mazur is a good half-season away from a callup.
BOLD PREDICTION: Jackson Merrill will hit his way to the top of the Padres’ lineup while handling center field. He will upset Yoshinobu Yamamoto to win Rookie of the Year.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
| Giants | Overall BA Grade: 50 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CF | Jung-Hoo Lee | 55 |
| 2B | Thairo Estrada | 50 |
| 1B | LaMonte Wade Jr. | 45 |
| DH | Jorge Soler | 55 |
| LF | Michael Conforto | 45 |
| 3B | Matt Chapman | 55 |
| RF | Mike Yastrzemski | 45 |
| C | Patrick Bailey | 50 |
| SS | Marco Luciano | 45 |
ON DECK: Center fielder Luis Matos got a taste of MLB action in 2023 and is lined up to fill in around the outfield as a 22-year-old sophomore.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Logan Webb | 70 |
| SP | Blake Snell | 65 |
| SP | Kyle Harrison | 50 |
| SP | Jordan Hicks | 50 |
| SP | Keaton Winn | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Camilo Doval | 50 |
| RP | Tyler Rogers | 45 |
| RP | Taylor Rogers | 45 |
WARMING UP: Carson Whisenhunt and Hayden Birdsong reached Double-A last season and have a chance to pitch their way into roles.
BOLD PREDICTION: The Giants added firepower with Jung-Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler. With Bob Melvin as manager, the Giants will make a run at a wild card.
COLORADO ROCKIES
| Rockies | Overall BA Grade: 20 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| DH | Charlie Blackmon | 45 |
| 1B | Kris Bryant | 45 |
| LF | Nolan Jones | 55 |
| 2B | Brendan Rodgers | 45 |
| 3B | Ryan McMahon | 50 |
| C | Elias Diaz | 40 |
| RF | Sean Bouchard | 40 |
| SS | Ezequiel Tovar | 50 |
| CF | Brenton Doyle | 45 |
ON DECK: Hunter Goodman has turned in back-to-back 30-jack seasons in the minors. He should hit a few more in Coors this year.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Kyle Freeland | 45 |
| SP | Cal Quantrill | 45 |
| SP | Austin Gomber | 45 |
| SP | Ryan Feltner | 40 |
| SP | Dakota Hudson | 40 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Justin Lawrence | 45 |
| RP | Tyler Kinley | 40 |
| RP | Jake Bird | 40 |
WARMING UP: The Rockies added hard-throwing Victor Vodnik from the Braves last July. He could carve out a key bullpen role if he throws strikes.
BOLD PREDICTION: Thrust into a full-time role at age 21, Ezequiel Tovar held his own, especially defensively. As his bat nears league average, he will post a 4 WAR season.
