NL East 2024 Preview: Predictions, Player Grades & More
Image credit: Ronald Acuña Jr. (Photo/Tom DiPace)
As part of Baseball America’s season preview, Zach Buchanan asked scouts and executives to weigh in on a number of topics. Industry sources were granted anonymity to speak freely. Quotes are lightly edited for clarity. You can also find Baseball America staffers’ picks and grades for every NL East lineup below.
MLB Predictions 2024: Baseball America’s Ultimate Season Preview
Baseball America is getting fans ready for the start of the 2024 MLB season.
WHAT SCOUTS AND EXECUTIVES ARE SAYING
BEST OFFSEASON
“The Braves added four potential impact players—Chris Sale, Jarred Kelenic, Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Bummer—but with none of the long-term risk of megadeals that teams like the Dodgers and Phillies just added to their books.”
BREAKOUT PITCHER
“Marlins lefthander Jesus Luzardo has Cy Young stuff, and if he’s healthy, I can see him helping carry the Marlins to a wild card.”
BREAKOUT HITTER
“Expect more consistent contact from the Nationals’ CJ Abrams. He’s talented with game-changing speed and flashes great defensive ability at shortstop.”
MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFSEASON
“The Marlins have a new regime, but no clear direction yet. They are a playoff team that went backward.”
BIGGEST SURPRISE
“I think the Marlins’ roster is tailored to take advantage of the new rules, especially steals, and their pitching depth is sneaky.”
BASEBALL AMERICA PREDICTIONS
TOP PLAYER: Ronald Acuña Jr., RF, Braves
The reigning National League MVP led the league in a half dozen key categories last season, as he produced the first 40-70 season in MLB history. It was also the first 40-60 or 40-50 season in history. Acuña will be hard-pressed to top his 2023 effort, but he has a lot of room to fall back to the pack and still produce at an MVP level as the leadoff man for the juggernaut Braves.
TOP PITCHER: Spencer Strider, RHP, Braves
Strider led the National League with 20 wins and 281 strikeouts last season, but finished just fourth in Cy Young Award voting. Armed with a new change-of-pace curveball this season, he will take aim at winning his first trophy.
TOP ROOKIE: James Wood, OF, Nationals
No clear-cut Rookie of the Year candidate plays in the NL East. Wood might be the best bet based on his immense power potential and how well he swung the bat in spring training. Last season, he blasted 26 home runs as a 20-year-old, while spending most of the year at Double-A. Thus, he may not require much Triple-A seasoning. Worth noting: the Nationals’ rookie record for home runs is 22, set by Bryce Harper and Juan Soto.
SOPHOMORE BREAKOUT: Francisco Alvarez, C, Mets
Last season, Alvarez did things that 21-year-old catchers don’t typically do. His 25 home runs trail only Johnny Bench, who hit 26 in 1969, among catchers who were 21 or younger. Alvarez was one of just 16 catchers that young to accrue 400 plate appearances in a season, and the first since Ivan Rodriguez in 1993. Alvarez hits the ball hard and has the “it” factor to be a star. That may not happen in 2024, but it will happen soon.
UNDERSTATED STAR: Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets
Since joining the Mets in 2021, Lindor has the sixth-highest FanGraphs WAR in baseball among position players. But because he does not hit for a high average, and because the Mets have had two losing seasons out of three, he tends to be overlooked. But the truth is that few shortstops are steadier on defense, few contribute more baserunning value and few have hit for as much power. Lindor has two ninth-place MVP finishes since 2021, but has not won a Gold Glove or made an all-star team as a Met. It’s time for that to change.
BOUNCEBACK: Tim Anderson, SS, Marlins
Anderson had a lost season for the lost cause that was the 2023 White Sox. But as a 31-year-old shortstop, who had hit .306 with a 114 OPS+ the two seasons prior, he is in a good position to rebound for a Marlins team that desperately needs a shortstop and veteran presence. Signing Anderson for one year and $5 million was a no-brainer for Miami as the shortstop seeks redemption. “He is simply too talented to not be better than last year. I like that spot for him,” one NL scout said.
BEST OF THE DIVISION
C Sean Murphy ATL
1B Matt Olson ATL
2B Ozzie Albies ATL
3B Austin Riley ATL
SS Francisco Lindor NYM
LF Brandon Nimmo NYM
CF Michael Harris II ATL
RF Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL
DH Bryce Harper PHI
SP Spencer Strider ATL
SP Zack Wheeler PHI
SP Aaron Nola PHI
SP Max Fried ATL
SP Jesus Luzardo MIA
SP Eury Perez MIA
CL Edwin Diaz NYM
PREDICTED STANDINGS
1. Braves
2. Phillies
3. Mets
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
LINEUPS & GRADES
Each player’s BA Grade reflects his current ability level, not what he was at his peak or what he projects to be in the future. Grades were determined by JJ Cooper, Matt Eddy, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White.
ATLANTA BRAVES
| Braves | Overall BA Grade: 80 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| RF | Ronald Acuña Jr. | 80 |
| 2B | Ozzie Albies | 60 |
| 3B | Austin Riley | 70 |
| 1B | Matt Olson | 70 |
| DH | Marcell Ozuna | 50 |
| CF | Michael Harris II | 60 |
| C | Sean Murphy | 60 |
| LF | Jarred Kelenic | 45 |
| SS | Orlando Arcia | 45 |
ON DECK: Position depth is not a strength, but Drake Baldwin is a lefthanded-hitting catcher with power, who has touched Triple-A.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Spencer Strider | 75 |
| SP | Max Fried | 70 |
| SP | Charlie Morton | 55 |
| SP | Chris Sale | 55 |
| SP | Reynaldo Lopez | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Raisel Iglesias | 50 |
| RP | A.J. Minter | 50 |
| RP | Joe Jimenez | 45 |
WARMING UP: The Braves have more promising arms than most, with AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep ready for callups as needed.
BOLD PREDICTION: No pitcher has reached 300 strikeouts since 2019. This year, Spencer Strider will meet the mark. A slight bump up from 186.2 innings will get him there.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
| Phillies | Overall BA Grade: 70 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| DH | Kyle Schwarber | 55 |
| SS | Trea Turner | 65 |
| 1B | Bryce Harper | 65 |
| C | J.T. Realmuto | 55 |
| 2B | Bryson Stott | 55 |
| 3B | Alec Bohm | 50 |
| RF | Nick Castellanos | 50 |
| LF | Brandon Marsh | 50 |
| CF | Johan Rojas | 45 |
ON DECK: The pickings are slim. First baseman Darick Hall has shown big power at Triple-A; Gabriel Rincones Jr. probably needs another year.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Zack Wheeler | 70 |
| SP | Aaron Nola | 65 |
| SP | Ranger Suarez | 55 |
| SP | Cristopher Sanchez | 50 |
| SP | Taijuan Walker | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Jose Alvarado | 50 |
| RP | Jeff Hoffman | 50 |
| RP | Gregory Soto | 45 |
WARMING UP: Reliever Orion Kerkering had the best breaking pitch in three minor leagues, per Best Tools voting, and made his MLB debut.
BOLD PREDICTION: Teammates rave about Ranger Suarez’s stuff. Now, after his first uninterrupted spring training, the 28-year-old is ready to go wire-to-wire as a No. 3 starter.
NEW YORK METS
| Mets | Overall BA Grade: 50 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| LF | Brandon Nimmo | 60 |
| 2B | Jeff McNeil | 45 |
| SS | Francisco Lindor | 70 |
| 1B | Pete Alonso | 65 |
| C | Francisco Alvarez | 55 |
| RF | Starling Marte | 50 |
| DH | Ji-Man Choi | 40 |
| CF | Harrison Bader | 45 |
| 3B | Brett Baty | 45 |
ON DECK: Outfielder Drew Gilbert and shortstop Luisangel Acuña should start at Triple-A as they get ready for their MLB debuts.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Jose Quintana | 50 |
| SP | Luis Severino | 50 |
| SP | Sean Manaea | 45 |
| SP | Adrian Houser | 45 |
| SP | Tylor Megill | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Edwin Diaz | 60 |
| RP | Adam Ottavino | 45 |
| RP | Brooks Raley | 45 |
WARMING UP: This is a key season for Mets pitcher development, as Christian Scott, Mike Vasil, Blade Tidwell and Dom Hamel could debut.
BOLD PREDICTION: Pete Alonso is motivated in his final season before free agency. He will top 50 homers for the second time after hitting a franchise record 53 in 2019.
MIAMI MARLINS
| Marlins | Overall BA Grade: 45 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| 2B | Luis Arraez | 50 |
| 1B | Josh Bell | 45 |
| 3B | Jake Burger | 50 |
| CF | Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 55 |
| SS | Tim Anderson | 45 |
| RF | Jesus Sanchez | 45 |
| DH | Avisail Garcia | 45 |
| LF | Bryan De La Cruz | 45 |
| C | Christian Bethancourt | 45 |
ON DECK: Xavier Edwards is a career .312 minor league hitter with a healthy walk rate. The 24-year-old plays second base and center field.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Jesus Luzardo | 60 |
| SP | Eury Perez | 60 |
| SP | AJ Puk | 50 |
| SP | Edward Cabrera | 50 |
| SP | Trevor Rogers | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Tanner Scott | 50 |
| RP | Andrew Nardi | 45 |
| RP | JT Chargois | 45 |
WARMING UP: Righthander Max Meyer could be a factor in the second half if his return from Tommy John surgery goes as planned.
BOLD PREDICTION: AJ Puk made good on his spring opportunity and won a rotation spot. He is 28, the same age as Carlos Rodon was when he got his career on track in 2021.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
| Nationals | Overall BA Grade: 30 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SS | CJ Abrams | 50 |
| RF | Lane Thomas | 45 |
| 1B | Joey Gallo | 45 |
| DH | Joey Meneses | 45 |
| LF | Eddie Rosario | 45 |
| C | Keibert Ruiz | 50 |
| 3B | Nick Senzel | 40 |
| 2B | Luis Garcia Jr. | 45 |
| CF | Victor Robles | 40 |
ON DECK: Outfielders Dylan Crews and James Wood could team up to deliver capitol punishment to opposing pitchers later in the summer.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Josiah Gray | 50 |
| SP | MacKenzie Gore | 50 |
| SP | Jake Irvin | 45 |
| SP | Trevor Williams | 40 |
| SP | Patrick Corbin | 30 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Kyle Finnegan | 45 |
| RP | Hunter Harvey | 45 |
| RP | Tanner Rainey | 40 |
WARMING UP: Power-armed Cade Cavalli reached MLB briefly in 2022 and could return in the second half following Tommy John surgery.
BOLD PREDICTION: Bryce Harper and Juan Soto share the Nationals rookie record with 22 homers. The powerful, 6-foot-6 James Wood will take aim at that mark this season.
