NL Central 2024 Preview: Predictions, Player Grades & More
Image credit: Dansby Swanson (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
As part of Baseball America’s season preview, Zach Buchanan asked scouts and executives to weigh in on a number of topics. Industry sources were granted anonymity to speak freely. Quotes are lightly edited for clarity. You can also find Baseball America staffers’ picks and grades for every NL Central lineup below.
MLB Predictions 2024: Baseball America’s Ultimate Season Preview
Baseball America is getting fans ready for the start of the 2024 MLB season.
WHAT SCOUTS AND EXECUTIVES ARE SAYING
SURPRISE TEAM
“I’ll go with the Cardinals since they have a good chance of making the playoffs—admittedly in a very crowded and uncertain NL Central—and they’ll be motivated to upgrade in-season and have the pieces to do so. I think the bubble for the NL wild card got softer this offseason as several teams that have been playoff contenders in recent years—Padres, Brewers, Marlins—saw their 2024 competitive outlook dim over the winter.”
“The Cardinals had an unlucky 2023 and still have quality talent. It appears the Reds and Cubs are getting all the attention in the Central.”
BREAKOUT HITTER
“Ke’Bryan Hayes had a strong late-season push. I think this will be an all-star year for the Pirates’ third baseman.”
BOUNCEBACK PLAYER
“Reds righthander Frankie Montas looks healthy and driven this year (after missing virtually all of last season to shoulder surgery).”
BASEBALL AMERICA PREDICTIONS
TOP PLAYER: Dansby Swanson, SS, Cubs
A rock-solid shortstop defender with good power and a track record of durability is an asset. So while Swanson isn’t necessarily flashy, he is an anchor for a Cubs team positioned to win the division. Many players struggle in Year 1 after signing a megadeal—Swanson signed for seven years, $177 million—so a stronger offensive performance in 2024 could be on the horizon.
TOP PITCHER: Justin Steele, LHP, Cubs
The Cubs had waited years for a homegrown pitcher to develop into a frontline starter. Steele, a 2014 fifth-rounder out of high school, has filled that role. His strong second half of 2022 turned into a full breakout in 2023, in which he finished fifth in Cy Young Award voting. Steele could be just getting started as a premier lefthander as he heads into his age-28 season.
TOP ROOKIE: Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers
Surface statistics don’t tell the whole story for Chourio. Not only was he a teenager at Double-A last season, but the Southern League also experimented with a pre-tacked baseball for much of the season. When the ball returned to normal in the second half, so did Chourio. He put up a .924 OPS in his final 51 games for Biloxi on his way to a 20-homer, 40-steal season. Chourio is the future in center field in Milwaukee, and that future begins now.
SOPHOMORE BREAKOUT: Jordan Walker, OF, Cardinals
Walker was the youngest regular position player in MLB last season, but you wouldn’t necessarily know it from his performance. As a 21-year-old, he hit .276/.342/.445 with 16 homers in 117 games. As the season progressed, Walker became more adept at driving the ball in the air. Now, it’s only a matter of time before he makes his first all-star team, with 2024 as good a guess as any.
UNDERSTATED STAR: Freddy Peralta, RHP, Brewers
With Corbin Burnes traded and Brandon Woodruff recovering from shoulder surgery, Peralta steps into the spotlight as the Brewers’ No. 1 starter. His 2023 results indicate he is up to the assignment. He bumped his velocity to 95 mph and missed more bats than ever. Since Peralta debuted in 2018, the list of starting pitchers with higher strikeout rates than his 31% is a short one, and one containing multiple Cy Young Award winners.
BOUNCEBACK: Rhys Hoskins, 1B, Brewers
Hoskins tore a ligament in his knee and had season-ending surgery last spring as a member of the Phillies, for whom he produced 30-homer seasons like clockwork. While he may face a post-surgery adjustment period early this season as he tests his repaired knee, Hoskins is a perfect fit for a power-starved Brewers lineup and a homer-friendly home park.
BEST OF THE DIVISION
C William Contreras MIL
1B Paul Goldschmidt STL
2B Nico Hoerner CHC
3B Nolan Arenado STL
SS Dansby Swanson CHC
LF Bryan Reynolds PIT
CF Cody Bellinger CHC
RF Seiya Suzuki CHC
DH Oneil Cruz PIT
SP Justin Steele CHC
SP Freddy Peralta MIL
SP Sonny Gray STL
SP Mitch Keller PIT
SP Hunter Greene CIN
SP Shota Imanaga CHC
CL David Bednar PIT
PREDICTED STANDINGS
1. Cubs
2. Reds
3. Brewers
4. Cardinals
5. Pirates
LINEUPS & GRADES
Each player’s BA Grade reflects his current ability level, not what he was at his peak or what he projects to be in the future. Grades were determined by JJ Cooper, Matt Eddy, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White.
CHICAGO CUBS
| Cubs | Overall BA Grade: 55 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| 2B | Nico Hoerner | 55 |
| SS | Dansby Swanson | 60 |
| LF | Ian Happ | 55 |
| 1B | Cody Bellinger | 60 |
| RF | Seiya Suzuki | 55 |
| 3B | Christopher Morel | 45 |
| DH | Michael Busch | 45 |
| C | Yan Gomes | 45 |
| CF | Mike Tauchman | 40 |
ON DECK: Center field wizard Pete Crow-Armstrong should be up in the summer, while 2023 first-rounder Matt Shaw could be fast-tracked.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Justin Steele | 65 |
| SP | Jameson Taillon | 50 |
| SP | Shota Imanaga | 55 |
| SP | Kyle Hendricks | 50 |
| SP | Jordan Wicks | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Adbert Alzolay | 50 |
| RP | Hector Neris | 50 |
| RP | Julian Merryweather | 45 |
WARMING UP: Drafted seventh overall in 2022, Cade Horton could be nearly ready after tearing through three minor league levels in 2023.
BOLD PREDICTION: Seiya Suzuki found his groove late in 2023 and, if he truly figured something out, is prepared to step forward as the Cubs’ team MVP.
CINCINNATI REDS
| Reds | Overall BA Grade: 50 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CF | TJ Friedl | 50 |
| SS | Elly De La Cruz | 55 |
| 2B | Matt McLain | 55 |
| 3B | Jeimer Candelario | 50 |
| LF | Spencer Steer | 50 |
| DH | Jonathan India | 50 |
| RF | Will Benson | 45 |
| 1B | C. Encarnacion-Strand | 50 |
| C | Tyler Stephenson | 45 |
ON DECK: The Reds graduated four rookie position regulars in 2023. They might add a fifth when Noelvi Marte returns from his PED suspension.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Frankie Montas | 50 |
| SP | Hunter Greene | 55 |
| SP | Graham Ashcraft | 50 |
| SP | Nick Martinez | 50 |
| SP | Andrew Abbott | 50 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Alexis Diaz | 50 |
| RP | Emilio Pagan | 45 |
| RP | Lucas Sims | 45 |
WARMING UP: The Reds may integrate several young pitchers, including Connor Phillips, Chase Petty and 2023 first-rounder Rhett Lowder.
BOLD PREDICTION: Elly De La Cruz scuffled in the second half of 2023 but is installed as the Reds’ No. 2 hitter and shortstop this season, when he will earn MVP votes.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
| Brewers | Overall BA Grade: 50 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| LF | Garrett Mitchell | 45 |
| C | William Contreras | 65 |
| DH | Christian Yelich | 55 |
| 1B | Rhys Hoskins | 55 |
| SS | Willy Adames | 55 |
| RF | Sal Frelick | 50 |
| CF | Jackson Chourio | 55 |
| 2B | Brice Turang | 45 |
| 3B | Joey Ortiz | 45 |
ON DECK: Tyler Black brings an on-base-oriented lefthanded bat, along with the versatility to play multiple infield and outfield positions.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Freddy Peralta | 65 |
| SP | Wade Miley | 45 |
| SP | Jakob Junis | 45 |
| SP | Colin Rea | 45 |
| SP | DL Hall | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Devin Williams | 55 |
| RP | Joel Payamps | 50 |
| RP | Trevor Megill | 45 |
WARMING UP: Lefthander Robert Gasser led all Triple-A pitchers in strikeouts last season and should make his MLB debut in 2024.
BOLD PREDICTION: Joey Ortiz will begin the season at third base but will finish it at shortstop. His quality all-around game will set him up for a long run in Milwaukee.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
| Cardinals | Overall BA Grade: 50 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| DH | Brendan Donovan | 50 |
| 1B | Paul Goldschmidt | 60 |
| 2B | Nolan Gorman | 55 |
| 3B | Nolan Arenado | 55 |
| C | Willson Contreras | 55 |
| LF | Lars Nootbaar | 55 |
| RF | Jordan Walker | 55 |
| CF | Dylan Carlson | 45 |
| SS | Masyn Winn | 45 |
ON DECK: Thomas Saggese led the minors with 170 hits last season and Victor Scott II was second with 166. Both have a shot to see MLB time.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Sonny Gray | 60 |
| SP | Miles Mikolas | 50 |
| SP | Kyle Gibson | 50 |
| SP | Lance Lynn | 45 |
| SP | Steven Matz | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Ryan Helsley | 50 |
| RP | Giovanny Gallegos | 45 |
| RP | JoJo Romero | 45 |
WARMING UP: Trade deadline pickup Tekoah Roby could get a look later in the season if he can remain healthy and locked in.
BOLD PREDICTION: Nolan Gorman completes a full breakout with his first 30-home run season, while continuing his improvement at second base and versus lefthanders.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
| Pirates | Overall BA Grade: 30 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SS | Oneil Cruz | 55 |
| LF | Bryan Reynolds | 55 |
| 3B | Ke’Bryan Hayes | 55 |
| DH | Andrew McCutchen | 45 |
| CF | Jack Suwinski | 50 |
| C | Henry Davis | 45 |
| 1B | Rowdy Tellez | 45 |
| RF | Edward Olivares | 40 |
| 2B | Liover Peguero | 45 |
ON DECK: Jared Triolo started games at three positions as a callup last season. His on-base-oriented bat should provide value in a utility role.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Mitch Keller | 55 |
| SP | Martin Perez | 45 |
| SP | Marco Gonzales | 45 |
| SP | Luis L. Ortiz | 40 |
| SP | Jared Jones | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | David Bednar | 50 |
| RP | Aroldis Chapman | 50 |
| RP | Colin Holderman | 45 |
WARMING UP: The Pirates’ pitching-rich system should produce an MLB debut from Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in last year’s draft.
BOLD PREDICTION: Gold Glove third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes will make his first all-star team, fully realizing his hitting potential and 20-homer upside.
