MLB Draft History: 'Bonanzas' Yield Mixed Results At Best
Every few years, a series of events transpires to give one team an oversized share of picks at the top of a draft. When it happens, it’s colloquially referred to as a draft "bonanza.”
This year, the D-backs are the proud owners of such a bonanza with seven of the top-75 selections. In addition to holding their own first-round (No. 16) and second-round (No. 56) picks, they also have a compensation pick (No. 26) for failing to sign 2018 first-rounder Matt McLain, two compensation picks (Nos. 33 and 34) for losing Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock in free agency, a competitive balance pick (No. 74) for being a small-market team and a second competitive balance pick (No. 75) they acquired from the Cardinals in the trade for Paul Goldschmidt.
Having seven picks before the start of the third round represents a prime opportunity for the D-backs to provide an infusion of talent into their farm system, which ranked No. 21 entering this season.
But while the opportunity is present, nothing is guaranteed. In fact, the history of teams taking advantage of such "bonanzas” is mixed, at best.
The D-backs themselves had one just 10 years ago. In 2009, they owned seven of the top 64 picks, an even higher concentration of selections at the top than they have now. They landed one future All-Star in A.J. Pollock and two other players who have had extended major league careers in Chris Owings and Matt Davidson.
That outcome—one All-Star and one or two complementary players—is in line with the best-case scenario of similar bonanzas, historically.
"Our (philosophy) was always the top players, the impact players, are what you’re looking for throughout the top part of the draft,” said Tom Allison, who was the D-backs' amateur scouting director in 2009 and is now the Mariners' pro scouting director. "On the backside, I reiterate the pool of players is only what the pool of players is. Those are the things that are important to keep in perspective. As much as you want to be risk-adverse in certain areas, you also have to use common sense.”
A wrinkle to modern draft bonanzas is that they are operating under a different system than their predecessors. Prior to this year, every instance of a team having at least seven picks before the third round came before the 2012 Collective Bargaining Agreement, which introduced the current bonus pool system and placed formal restrictions on how much money teams could spend on draft signing bonuses without incurring penalties.
Such restrictions have forced teams to take signability into account more than ever, and it can sometimes lead to mistakes when teams have to pack so much talent at the top into a set, limited pool of available dollars.
"It’s tough. You cannot fall into the trap of, ‘Hey, this guy is a great multiple-pick guy,’” said Padres special assistant to the GM David Post, who has helped oversee top-heavy drafts with the Padres and Astros. "You have to line up the talent and take them for what they are. I’ve heard it a thousand times, ‘This guy is a great multiple-pick guy.’ You cannot have that mindset.”
With an assist from Baseball America founder Allan Simpson, here is every instance of a team having at least seven picks prior to the start of the third round—as the D-backs do this year—and how those bonanzas turned out.
Bold = Reached major leagues.
10 of top 53 picks
3B Shane Andrews (11)
OF Rondell White (24)
LHP Gabe White (28)
RHP Stan Spencer (35)
LHP Ben Van Ryn (37)
OF Stan Robertson (40)
SS Mike Hardge (49)
RHP Tavo Alvarez (RHP)
LHP Chris Haney (51)
SS Chris Martin (53).
White had an excellent 15-year career and White and Andrews were solid contributors. None of the other players amassed more than one career WAR.
Seven of top 66 picks
Van Poppel was the star of the draft and signed for a then-record $1.2 million bonus, but he was released by Oakland six years later and retired with a career 5.58 ERA. He was the most successful of the A’s picks.
Seven of top 50 picks
*RHP John Burke (6)
SS Shawn Livesey (29)
C Jimmy Gonzalez (40)
3B Mike Groppuso (44)
OF Buck McNabb (48)
RHP Jim Lewis (49)
3B Eddy Ramos (50)
*Burke did not sign
The Astros famously tried to save money in this draft and got nothing out of it, coming away empty despite a bounty of picks.
Nine of top 74 picks
The Expos picked high schoolers with eight of their nine picks and came up mostly empty. Tucker spent parts of five seasons with the Expos and Nationals pitching in relief. Hebson, their lone college selection, pitched two career innings. None of the other seven picks made it to the majors.
1997 White Sox
Seven of top 62 picks
*Weaver did not sign
Like the 1991 Astros, the White Sox also tried to save money and came away with little to show for it. Dellaero had 33 major league at-bats, and Parque, Biddle and Myette all finished with career ERA’s above 5.40. Weaver was re-drafted in the first round by the Tigers the following year and had an 11-year career.
Seven of top 72 picks
The Giants landed three major leaguers in their bonanza, but none was more than a bit player for a short time.
Seven of top 50 picks
Roberts became a two-time All-Star and Bigbie had some nice years as a contributor. Of the other five picks, Reed had six career plate appearances and Rice reached the majors as a reliever—14 years later.
Seven of top 79 picks
Only Bynum reached the majors, and he had a career 7.73 ERA in what stands as one of the least successful draft bonanzas of all-time. The Padres made up for it later, though, when they drafted Alabama prep righthander Jake Peavy in the 15th round.
Eight of top 67 picks
Swisher had an 12-year career that included an All-Star selection, Blanton was a solid pitcher for more than a decade and Teahen had some decent years with the Royals. None of the other five, headlined by the "Moneyball”-famous Brown, had careers of note.
Seven of first 79 picks
Five of the Marlins’ seven picks got to the majors, but only Volstad had more than one season as even a semi-regular.
Eight of top 87 picks
Injuries short-circuited Luebke’s career, and Sogard is still bouncing around the majors with the Blue Jays. None of the other six played in the major leagues.
2007 Blue Jays
Seven of top 88 picks
Arencibia and Cecil carved out major league careers, with Cecil garnering an All-Star selection. Magnuson pitched nine games in the majors and was the only other pick to make it to the big leagues.
Seven of top 64 picks
The D-backs had one of the better draft bonanzas by landing three accomplished major leaguers who are still active today. They also picked Paul Goldschmidt (eighth round), Chase Anderson (ninth) and Keon Broxton (third) later in what became a banner draft class.
2010 Blue Jays
Seven of first 80 picks
The Blue Jays snagged two future All-Star righthanders in Syndergaard and Sanchez. None of their other five selections are in the majors today.
12 of top 89 picks
RHP Taylor Guerrieri (24)
OF Mikie Mahtook (31)
SS Jake Hager (32)
SS Brandon Martin (38)
OF Tyler Goeddel (41)
RHP Jeff Ames (42)
LHP Blake Snell (52)
OF Kes Carter (56)
LHP Grayson Garvin (59)
OF James Harris (60)
CF Granden Goetzman (75)
RHP Lenny Linsky (89).
The Rays whiffed on 11 of their 12 picks in the largest draft bonanza of all-time, but their one hit—Snell—was enormous.
2011 Blue Jays
Seven of top 78 picks
*Beede did not sign
The Blue Jays landed four big leaguers, but the players’ success has largely come elsewhere. Beede did not sign, Musgrove was traded as a minor leaguer, and Norris and Smith Jr. were also traded after short stints in Toronto.
Baseball America Prospect Report -- May 21, 2019
Domingo Leyba nearly hits for the cycle, welcomed signs for Ronaldo Hernandez and Casey Mize looks more like himself.
There has not been a bonanza as large as this year’s D-backs since 2011, primarily because of changes governing free agent compensation introduced in the 2012 Collective Bargaining Agreement. However, there have been other, smaller bonanzas since the 2011 Rays and Blue Jays. Here is how they turned out.
Six of top 70 picks
Fried and Eflin blossomed into rotation staples on playoff contenders and Jankowski has been a solid contributor when healthy. The last three picks of their bonanza are career minor leaguers to date.
2012 Blue Jays
Six of top 81 picks
Stroman became an ace at his peak and De Jong reached the majors. None of Toronto’s other four picks advanced past Double-A.
Six of top 86 picks
The Cardinals hit on Wacha and Piscotty, while Kelly and Wisdom reached the majors and are still in the early stages of their big league careers.
Six of top 89 picks
The Braves have received promising early returns from their 2015 draft. Soroka is one of MLB’s top young pitchers, Minter has been a part of the Braves bullpen the last three years and Riley is the club’s No. 1 prospect. Allard also reached the majors.
Six of top 85 picks
Quantrill and Lauer have reached the majors and are part of the young wave of arms the Padres are trying to ride to contention. Potts, Reed and Lawson are in Double-A and rank among the club’s Top 30 prospects.