Midseason Prospect Update: Padres
The Midseason Top 10 Prospect lists are compiled from conversations with front office officials and scouts from all 30 teams. Players who have exhausted prospect eligibility or were in the Major Leagues as of June 22 are not eligible. Draftees from the 2016 draft and July 2, 2016 signees are also not eligible.
SEE ALSO: Midseason Top 100
Not much has gone right in the first half for the Padres, who are on track for not only their sixth straight losing season, but a 69-win pace that would be their worst record in that time.
| 2019 PROJECTED LINEUP |
| C Austin Hedges |
| 1B Wil Myers |
| 2B Cory Spangenberg |
| SS Javier Guerra |
| 3B Yangervis Solarte |
| LF Matt Kemp |
| CF Manuel Margot |
| RF Hunter Renfroe |
| No. 1 Starter Tyson Ross |
| No. 2 Starter Drew Pomeranz |
| No. 3 Starter Colin Rea |
| No. 4 Starter Luis Perdomo |
| No. 5 Starter Dinelson Lamet |
| Closer Brandon Maurer |
Veteran pitchers James Shields and Fernando Rodney have already been traded for prospects, with more deals expected to come before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.
While things have not gone well at the major league level, many of San Diego’s prospects have taken big leaps forward this season, brightening the franchise’s future outlook. Previously in-house prospects Hunter Renfroe, Michael Gettys, Luis Urias, Jacob Nix and Dinelson Lamet have all made adjustments leading to career-best seasons, while offseason acquisitions Manuel Margot, Logan Allen, Carlos Asuaje, Enyel De Los Santos and Jean Cosme have shined in their first year in the Padres organization. Their successes have made up for disappointing campaigns from preseason No. 1 prospect Javier Guerra, Ruddy Giron, Austin Smith and others.
The Padres also went big during this year’s international signing period, signing eight of BA’s Top 50 international prospects, plus Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon for $11 million. It marked the largest pivot toward Latin America in franchise history, and an expected trend under general manager A.J. Preller, who cut his teeth in international scouting.
Another losing season under first-year manager Andy Green appears all but assured at this point, but the progress of the prospects, along with excellent 2016 campaigns from age 28-and-under players Wil Myers, Drew Pomeranz and Yangervis Solarte, gives the Padres a glimpse of a possible light at the end of the tunnel.
MIDSEASON TOP 10
1. Manuel Margot, of
The Padres aggressively started Margot at Triple-A El Paso after acquiring him in the Craig Kimbrel trade, and the 21-year old Dominican has justified the assignment emphatically. One of youngest players in the Pacific Coast League, Margot ranks among the league leaders in hits, triples, runs, and stolen bases and has been the league’s toughest batter to strike out. He has also improved his jumps and reads in center field—including a home run-robbing catch in the Futures Game—and, most dramatically, his arm. Margot was leading the PCL with 14 outfield assists after extensively working on his strength and footwork, making him a true all-around contributor.
2. Hunter Renfroe, of
Renfroe closed his stance a bit, and the adjustment has led to a shortened swing that still packs plenty of power. His strikeout rate has dropped from 23.6 percent to 18.8 percent, and he is on pace to set career-highs in doubles, home runs, batting average and OPS at Triple-A El Paso. He also retains a strong throwing arm, racking up 13 assists before opponents stopped running on him.
3. Javier Guerra, ss
Guerra is young for high class A Lake Elsinore and has shown promising power in his wiry 5-foot-11, 155-pound frame, but otherwise little has gone right in his first season as a Padre. Struggles recognizing offspeed pitches have led to 106 strikeouts in 82 games and a .206 batting average, and he has made an organization-worst 24 errors.
4. Michael Gettys, of
A raw athlete dripping with tools, Gettys has started turning his athletic gifts into baseball success this year. He demonstrated contact ability (.304 average), speed (24 SB) and a cannon arm (11 outfield assists) at low class A Fort Wayne to earn promotion to Lake Elsinore, where he recorded a hit in 15 of his first 18 games.
5. Chris Paddack, rhp
Acquired for Fernando Rodney, the 6-foot-4 righthander was a standout in his first pro campaign and has continued to progress. Now with low class A Fort Wayne, Paddack has great angle to his pitches, including a 93-95 mph fastball, a double-plus changeup and a promising slider he can now throw for strikes.
6. Luis Urias, 2b
Only 18, Urias was the youngest player in the California League on Opening Day and has blossomed into one of its top hitters, and just after turning 19 briefly reached Triple-A. Exceptional strike zone discipline and hand-eye coordination has led to the league’s lowest strikeout rate, and he is firmly in contention for the batting title.
7. Jose Rondon, ss
A fractured right elbow prematurely ended Rondon’s season last year, but he has fared well in his second year at Double-A San Antonio. A solid contact hitter with little power, Rondon continues to project as a bottom-of-the-order shortstop or utility option. His defensive range remains strong.
8. Enyel De Los Santos, rhp
Acquired in the Joaquin Benoit trade last offseason, De Los Santos posted a 45-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio at Fort Wayne to earn a quick promotion to high Class A Lake Elsinore. With a fastball up to 97 mph and a clean delivery, De Los Santos is quickly climbing the system.
9. Logan Allen, lhp
Another player acquired in the Kimbrel trade, Allen is holding his own the Midwest League at just 19 years old. The 6-foot-3 southpaw has a 3.07 ERA and 8.4 strikeout-per-nine rate despite being nearly three years younger than league average, although he is currently on the disabled list with elbow soreness.
10. Jacob Nix, rhp
The 2015 third-round pick found a repeatable delivery in the offseason, leading to his walk rate being cut nearly in half. He also sharpened his curveball and changeup and found consistent release points on both to go with his 92-95 mph fastball, solidifying his projection as a mid-rotation starter.
RISING
Infielder Carlos Asuaje has been one of the PCL’s top hitters at Triple-A El Paso and was selected for the Futures Game. His defense at second base has also been better than advertised with quick hands, although his range needs improvement . . . Righthander Dinelson Lamet developed a changeup as a quality third pitch to solidify his future as a starter. He went 7-1, 2.35 at high Class A Lake Elsinore before earning a promotion to Double-A less two months into the season . . . Catcher Austin Allen, a fourth-round pick last year, has cooled off since a scorching start but remains one of the Midwest League’s top hitters with low Class A Fort Wayne and has thrown out 25 percent of basestealers.
FALLING
Shortstop Ruddy Giron has spent nearly the entire season hitting below .200 at Fort Wayne a year after hitting .285 at the same level. Inconsistent swing mechanics have led to lots of weak contact, and he has yet to homer after hitting nine longballs in 96 games last season … Righthander Austin Smith, last year’s top draft pick, continues to struggle to throw strikes with 40 strikeouts and 32 walks in 67 2/3 innings at Fort Wayne. When he does find the plate he’s been hit hard, with opponents batting .302 off him in 12 starts.
HURTING
Righthander Justin Hancock has been shut down with a sore shoulder since making his first two starts with Triple-A El Paso in April. He has no timetable to return. Allen is not expected to need surgery on his elbow, although has no firm return date.
GRADUATING
Outfielder Travis Jankowski and righthander Colin Rea have become mainstays on the Padres’ roster this season, with Jankowski filling the fourth outfielder role and Rea the fifth starter spot. Versatile Jose Pirela exhausted his prospect eligibility when he came up and spent a month with the Padres, giving him 59 career major league games.
COMING ABOARD (Check the Draft Database for more picks)
The Padres’ first five picks of the 2016 draft. (s-supplemental round)
1. Cal Quantrill, rhp, Stanford. Quantrill says he is fully recovered from the Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all but three games the past two years with the Cardinal. The Padres hope his bloodlines, strong 6-foot-3 frame, filthy changeup and track record of success will allow him to move through the system quickly as a starter.
1. Hudson Potts, ss/3b, Carroll Senior HS, Southlake, Texas. Potts, who changed his last name from Sanchez, was drafted as a shortstop but will likely have to slide over to third base as a professional. Regardless, it is power potential that will carry the 6-foot-3 former Texas A&M signee.
1. Eric Lauer, lhp, Kent State. Lauer’s 0.69 ERA last season was the lowest of any Div. 1 pitcher since 1979, and his advanced feel for pitching combined with a solid four-pitch mix makes him a strong candidate to ascend the system quickly.
2. Buddy Reed, of, Florida. The switch-hitting center fielder was one of the best defensive outfielders in the country and boasts plus speed and athleticism, but questions about his bat persist after he hit .262 as a junior.
2s. Reggie Lawson, rhp, Victor Valley HS, Victorville, Calif. Once considered a possible first-round selection, Lawson possesses a promising, athletic 6-foot-4 frame and mid-90s fastball. He signed for $1.9 million, nearly $1 million over slot.
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