Midseason Chat: MLB All-Star Races, Trade Deadline Questions & More
Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, Happy Friday. Lot of fun stuff going on. We've hit the midway point of the season, trade deadline is just over a month away, All-Star and Futures Game selections coming out, it's a fun time in the baseball calendar. Look forward to talking about all of it. Let's get chatting
Rick M. (Walnut Creek, CA):
- What kind of Return can the Giants expect from trades of Madison Bumgarner and Will Smith? Top 50 Prospects, or does their pending Free Agency prevent that kind of return?
Kyle Glaser: If I’m the Giants (or a Giants fan), last year’s Cole Hamels deal scares the hell out of me. Hamels was pitching at a very similar level to Bumgarner right now (99 ERA+ for Hamels, 101+ for Bumgarner), had similar pedigree as former top of the rotation lefthander still striking guys out, and all Hamels brought back was Eddie Butler, Rollie Lacy and Alexander Ovalles (as the PTBNL). That’s an up-and-down guy now playing in Korea, a fringe prospect and a then-DSL wild card at least 5-6 years away. And that was with Hamels having a club option on his deal. Bumgarner is a pure rental. That might be the type of return you’re looking at, crazy as it seems. I would imagine with how many teams need a solid starter they could get more – maybe something like the Darvish package of a top 100 prospect and two lower level guys – but the same could have been said of Hamels last year. We just keep seeing the price to acquire big leaguers at the deadline, and impact ones, become lower and lower every year, to the point it’s shocking. As for Will Smith, you’re talking about a rental reliever as good as he is. Those guys aren’t bringing back more than a semi-interesting low-level prospect or two. All the relievers who brought back guys of note (Hand/Cimber, Kela, Osuna, Pressly) had multiple years of control left. We’ve just seen teams prioritize years of control so much, the prospect returns so often don’t line up with the talent of the actual big leaguer. Farhan and Co. have a big task ahead trying to convince teams to buck the industry trend of recent years and get back much in return for their rental players, as good as they are.
- Do you think the rays will trade Shane McClanahan or Liberatore at the deadline?
Kyle Glaser: It would surprise me. It's just not the Rays MO to trade from the top of their prospect well. I would expect whatever prospects they move to come more from their depth, but never say never.
- simply put, which top 100 prospect is most likely to get traded during the trading deadline?
Kyle Glaser: Based on the way things have trended in recent years, it's more likely to be someone from the back half of the list than than the top 50. I could see scenarios where Kyle Tucker or Keibert Ruiz move, but we've seen teams rarely trade that level of prospect at the deadline the last couple years.
Michael (Regina, SK):
- Thanks for chatting! Are the Giants and Cardinals realistic trade partners? Would the Giants accept a trade package that includes Tyler O'Neill for MadBum?
Kyle Glaser: They do match up well given the Cardinals outfield depth and the Giants' desperate need for outfielders. Whether O'Neill is part of that package or other, lesser outfielders is going to depend some on how well the Giants are able to get a bidding war going for Bumgarner
Jim (New Jersey):
- Existential question: would the Harper signing have happened if the Phils had selected Senzel over Moniak (2016) and Adell over Haseley (2017)? How detrimental is it to have back-to-back picks that high and walk away only with league average contributors (if they're lucky).
Kyle Glaser: Senzel would be playing 3B and Adell would be rising as a CF in your alternate universe. That wouldn't preclude the Phillies from signing Harper. And having picks not work out as hoped is going to happen. What's important is you find other ways to come up with the talent you need, and the Phillies did a nice job of that with a really strong offseason that positions them well for both this year and future years.
Roger (Washington DC):
- The trade market has been so slack the last couple of years it's hard to even imagine what a sell-off might look like anymore. Generally speaking, what kind of a return do you believe the Giants are realistically looking at for Bumgarner and Will Smith as well as the rest of their potential pieces like Dyson, Watson, Sandoval. What should they hope to walk out of July with?
Kyle Glaser: We talked a little bit about this in the first answer. I do think when all is said and done, they still should be able to come out with some combination of decent young guys that will help them in the future. It's not going to be 3 or 4 Top 100 prospects or anything, but if they can successfully leverage teams against each other there is a chance the Giants come out with a Top 100 guy and some good young players, whether they be big leaguers or prospects.
- What does a realistic package look like for Ken Giles at this years trade deadline? Does it add more value if a Sogard or Galvis is included? Thank you.
Kyle Glaser: A pair of interesting guys who are in their team's top 30 is probably a reasonable expectation. And yeah, adding productive middle infielders on affordable deals will always sweeten the pot.
Jason (Pleasant Hill, CA):
- Oakland has a plethora of Triple A players backlogged and ready for full time spots on a Big league roster. Who stays and who gets traded for help around the All Star break? Franklin Barreto, Dustin Fowler, Jorge Mateo, Sheldon Neuse, Skye Bolt, et al, would likely be in the big leagues if they were on a different team.
Kyle Glaser: The reports on Barretto, Mateo and Neuse have not been good out of Las Vegas. The numbers are shiny, but few think it's real. There is not an overwhelming amount of interest based on the evaluators I've talked to or who my colleagues have talked to. But all it takes is one team to see things differently, I guess I can see a scenario where one or two of those guys helps bring back someone that helps, more in a complementary role than a game-changer.
- With the Giants need for a massive infusion of talent in their farm system, what kind of package will the Giants be able to get for MadBum and Will Smith? Is it very likely that Dyson or Watson will bring the Giants a good prospect to dream on?
Kyle Glaser: We addressed MadBum and Will Smith earlier. Dyson and Watson are interesting because they're potentially signed for longer and teams crave control. Dyson isn't a free agent until after next season and Watson has a player option for 2020. The Giants could conceivably pull something similar to how the Pirates got Oneil Cruz from the Dodgers for Watson a few years ago and Cruz blossomed into a Top 100 prospect. Watson was a pure rental at that time, so that should give Giants fans hope for a nice return.
Franco (Scottsdale, AZ):
- In theory, could the Oakland A’s trade Kyler Murray’s baseball Rights to the Arizona Diamondbacks? He might want to try being a 2-Sport Star someday and it would be easier if both of his teams were in the same City.
Kyle Glaser: In theory yes, but there's no way in heck the Arizona Cardinals would allow their No. 1 overall pick and franchise QB to play baseball 4-5 months of the year instead of practice with the team and recuperate after a long football season. People keep asking and I think they just don't want to hear the answer: It's not happening. Kyler Murray is not playing baseball as long as he's a quarterback in the NFL. If he changes positions or his NFL career flames out, different story. But as his position, with what the Cardinals have invested in him, it's not happening.
Leo (San Diego):
- If I'm the Padres, I would be targeting guys like Ian Anderson and Drew Waters from Atlanta. What kind of package from the Padres do you think would entice the Braves and do you think that's a good move for them?
Kyle Glaser: The players the Padres would have to give up to get those guys are not players they should be giving up.
Jon E (Iowa):
- The Tigers understandably want a fair amount for Matthew Boyd with his years of cheap-ish control left and his improving K-rates. However he’s been giving up plenty of dingers lately. Will one of the big market contenders view him as a critical piece to help them over the top to win a World Series now? Or will a wildcard team that likes his contract status as much as his chances of helping them this year (TB or OAK) be more inclined to pursue him? What should the Tigers hold firm to get?
Kyle Glaser: Boyd is a conundrum because he's coming back down to Earth. TBH, if I'm the Tigers I'm inclined to hold onto him. He's got plenty of time left on his deal and you can envision a rotation of Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Spencer Turnbull and Matt Boyd being what gets them back into contention somewhat, especially if Michael Fulmer comes back healthy too. If the Tigers get blown away, sure, trade him, but I'm not sure they'll get a "blow them away" offer, especially with his recent downturn
- Assuming Mad Max isn’t available, is there really any pitcher that’s going to be available that’s better than Severino? Him coming back healthy is the real key for Yanks. Him, Paxton and Tanaka are more than good enough in Oct, IMO.
Kyle Glaser: Probably not. And yes, that is a good enough top three to get you through October with Sabathia as the four. It's a just a matter of the confidence level in Severino getting and staying healthy, and you can never really have too much pitching.
Janet M (NJ):
- Did Mets regret trading Kelenic/Dunn for broken Cano and unreliable closer Diaz?
Kyle Glaser: I wrote before the season about the really poor track record of incoming GMs making prospect-for-veteran deals the first winter they take over. Diaz was fine for the first two months, it's really just been one bad month, but taking on as much of Cano's salary as they did never really made sense given where he was at in his career and what they gave up.
Daniel C (Tampa FL):
- We’ve all heard the common names (Stroman, MadBum, etc). Who could moved at the deadline that would catch everyone off-guard? Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: Francisco Lindor. I don't think it will happen and the Indians are only a half game back of a playoff spot so it wouldn't make sense to do it, but if things were to go really south this next month, that would be my "off-guard, shocker" pick. But again, I don't actually think it will happen.
- Would either Marcus Stroman or Ken Giles have enough value to fetch a top 100 prospect? Both pitchers have 2 seasons of control left.
Kyle Glaser: Stroman yes.
Steve (San Francisco):
- Given what you say about the paltry return the Giants are likely to be offered for Bum and/or Smith, what’s the incentive to make that deal? What’s the likelihood of bringing them back on new contracts next year? Thanks.
Kyle Glaser: If they can get the Darvish deal for MadBum (a top 100 prospect and two interesting low level guys) it wouldn't be paltry. And if they're really interested in trying to bring them back on new contracts next year, what would be most optimal would be for the Giants to pull a Yankees-Chapman situation. Trade them, get prospects back, and then re-sign them in the offseason. Whether that happens or those guys would want to resign, who knows.
- Mike Brosseau is just such a good story. All he's done in his career is hit, hit, and hit. Is he more than just a feel-good placeholder?
Kyle Glaser: He might be. Not gonna put it past him.
- do you see Dipoto making more trades?
Kyle Glaser: Ohhh yeah. Leake, Seager, Gordon, Milone, Beckham, Haniger and Healy (pending health)....there's a lot of options for teams to pursue. It's going to be open season in Seattle.
Brian (San Diego):
- If the Padres look to acquire an established top of rotation arm with control via trade in the offseason (Kluber, Scherzer, deGrom type) would teams accept 6-7 prospects from the Padres depth or would the Padres need to include Gore+1 or two other mid tier prospects in any trade for that level of talent?
Kyle Glaser: The Padres aren't moving Gore. But it would need to be 2-3 other guys from their top 10 at the top of the deal. You're not getting those guys without surrendering some top 50-type prospects. Luckily for the Padres, they've got a lot of those guys.
Taylor (So Cal):
- Hey Kyle, Thanks for taking the chat. Who in the San Diego organization needs to have their bags packed? Do you see them being big players at the deadline?
Kyle Glaser: A lot of that is going to depend on what happens in the next three weeks. They've got a decently difficult portion of the schedule coming up (Cardinals, Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, but also series against the Giants and Marlins). Keep in mind the Padres are no longer in full sell mode. They're building toward a playoff run next year. Anything that would hurt their ability to compete next year would be a step backward - that includes trading young, productive big leaguers just because they have trade value. This isn't the 2016-18 Padres. It's a different dynamic.
Travis (Omak, WA):
- Could Roenis Elias return a decent prospect for the M’s with the number of teams seeking bullpen help?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, although the way the market is going to be flooded with relievers will affect the return. But there absolutely should be interest in him, no doubt.
- Do you see the Reds as buyers or sellers?
Kyle Glaser: They're sellers, barring a huge turnaround in the next 2-3 weeks.
Morgan (Wheeling Ohio):
- Thanks for taking questions! What kind of return might the reds expect for Puig and Rourke?
Kyle Glaser: Puig not much. When you strip away all the hoopla, he's a corner outfielder declining for the second straight year who is a free agent at the end of the season. He's not going to bring back much on his own unless the Reds do an incredible sell job or he goes off in the next couple of weeks. Roark could bring back an interesting prospect or two. Think like the Mike Fiers deal last year.
- Does Kolby Allard have any trade value? It sounds like he's gotten some of his velo back
Kyle Glaser: Some, but not a ton. He'd be more the second or third piece in a deal than a headliner if we're talking about a big trade.
George Valera (The Hype Train):
- Am I striking out too much, especially in short season ball? Have evaluators oversold my hit tool and knowledge of the strike zone?
Kyle Glaser: It's been 12 games. He's batting .289/.385/.556. Chill
Old Timer (Raleigh):
- Between the juiced ball and the AAA Las Vegas environment, how do you evaluate the break out seasons of Mateo,Bolt, and Neuse.
Kyle Glaser: You talk to as many evaluators getting eyes on them as possible to find out what is real and what isn't. We do that anyway, with all prospects, but it's especially critical now with the major league ball in Triple-A.
- What's a reasonable 2019 workload for Sixto Sanchez -- 120 innings, all at AA? And a do-over question: would you rather have Grandal and Sanchez in your organization, or Realmuto?
Kyle Glaser: Your second question is intrigues me. I might lean Realmuto but can see the argument the other way. As for Sixto's workload, 100 innings might be closer just because he only threw 46.2 last year, but 120 wouldn't be unreasonable considering he's held up over 90+ innings before.
TJ (United States):
- Is Sam Huff a serious catching prospect? Or do you see him moving off the position.
Kyle Glaser: He is. He can catch. He's a big boy though so staying fit enough to remain mobile back there will be key.
- Talk to me about Jake Cronenworth. Seems like he's developed as a hitter and his stuff looks crisp (if poorly located). Two-way potential?
Kyle Glaser: He's a nice player. Solid at shortstop, got a really good feel for the strike zone and makes a lot of contact (although it's softer, singles and doubles type contact), and the pitching is obviously an interesting wrinkle. He's got a chance at the majors, it's just more as the 23rd guy on a 25-man roster type of deal. Play the middle infield, fill in at the bottom of the lineup, maybe give you an inning or two on the mound if you want to get creative. A nice player to have on your team in kind of a complementary role.
Jonathan (New Jersey):
- Is there any chance we see Wander Franco in the Bigs this year?
Kyle Glaser: No.
Travis (Omak, WA):
- How close are Evan white and Justin Dunn to the top 100? Do they both finish the year in AAA?
Kyle Glaser: Evan White is in the mix. Justin Dunn not yet. And yeah, there's a chance, especially if the Mariners sell big-time at the deadline and call up a bunch of guys at Triple-A to fill the spots.
DepressedYankeesFan (Yankees Stadium at Bronx):
- In terms of Madison Bumgarner trade value, according one of rumors , Giants looking to trade equivalent of Happ trade when Jays traded him Last season to Yankees or Jon Lester trade to A's from Redsox. What is Bumgarner value ? He be free agent after this season
Kyle Glaser: It would be interesting if the Giants went the "acquire big leaguers" route for Bumgarner as the Jays did with Happ (Drury and McKinney) and the A's did with Lester (Cespedes). They desperately need young talent so I don't think they'll do that, but you gotta see what takes shape and take the best deal you can.
Jason L (Tracy):
- What Giants prospect other than Luciano has top 100 potential?
Kyle Glaser: You mean other than Bart, Ramos and Bishop? None right now, although please remember there are plenty of really good prospects who don't cross the Top 100 threshold. The top 100 is generally guys seen as future All-Stars or close. There are plenty of really good, solid players who aren't Top 100 prospects who will go on to have really nice careers. The Giants do have a few of those guys like Sean Hjelle, who everyone likes as a solid No. 4 starter, which every team needs.
Kyle Glaser: Alright everyone that will do it for today. Thanks for chatting with me. I'll be out on vacation next week, but keep it here at BA for all the latest July 2 coverage and keep an eye out for the next Top 100 update. Have a great Fourth of July everyone, and stay safe.