In New MLB Milieu, Bottom-Of-The-Order Hitters Have Become Unsung Men Of Steal

Image credit: Jorge Mateo (Photo by Brandon Sloter/Getty Images)

Major league players stole 3,503 bases at an 80% success rate in 2023. The latter is an all-time record. The former was topped only once, in 1987.

This volume of thievery is especially impressive because fewer hitters stop at first base today than they have for most of the 30-team era. The total of singles plus walks plus hit by pitches last season was 43,962, the sixth-lowest total of the past 25 full seasons.

It’s no secret that a series of rules changes spurred the stolen base surge of 2023. What may be less appreciated is where those stolen bases are coming from.

Every batting order position saw an uptick in stolen-base attempts in 2023 compared with 2022. These comparison points are a perfect snapshot, given that both seasons featured the universal DH but were played with different rules governing time between pitches, disengagements from the pitching rubber and base size. 

Stolen Bases Attempted By Batting Order Position

Order	2022	2023	Change
1	639	802	+163
2	386	584	+198
3	333	394	+61
4	233	335	+102
5	324	372	+48
6	302	412	+110
7	335	433	+98
8	369	510	+141
9	376	527	+151

The results are even more dramatic than this. 

Bottom-of-the-order hitters have fewer overall stolen-base opportunities because they bat fewer times and also reach base far less often than batters at the top of the order. If we restate the above as stolen bases attempted in relation to estimated times on first base we see the following.

Stolen Bases Attempted In Relation To Times On First Base

Order	2022	2023	Change
1	11.41	13.46	+2.06
2	7.03	10.38	+3.35
3	6.19	7.35	+1.16
4	4.59	6.56	+1.97
5	6.76	7.67	+0.91
6	6.56	8.62	+2.07
7	7.48	9.17	+1.69
8	8.47	11.45	+2.98
9	9.07	12.59	+3.52

Now we see that No. 9 hitters took advantage of the new MLB milieu more than any other lineup position, and No. 8 hitters had the third-highest increase in stolen base attempt rate.

And while leadoff hitters increased their raw stolen base output more than any batting order position but No. 2 hitters, in fact their rate of attempts increased by about two per 100 times on first base, which was just the fifth-highest year-over-year increase.

When you stop to think, it makes sense that No. 8 and 9 hitters would attempt stolen bases nearly as often as leadoff hitters.

• Many players batting eighth or ninth are strong defensive players with plus athleticism and minus hitting ability. 

On that point, the leaders in stolen bases out of the No. 9 spot last year were Jorge Mateo (15), Myles Straw (13), Esteury Ruiz (13), Brenton Doyle (13) and Jose Caballero (12).   

It’s a similar story with No. 8 hitters. The stolen-base leaders were Brice Turang (14), Ji-Hwan Bae (12), Will Benson (11), Dairon Blanco (10) and Drew Waters (10).

• Bottom-of-the-order hitters are less effective hitters overall who are more likely to gain only one base when they do reach. Since it’s easier to steal second base than third or home, these players increase their value by stealing second base occasionally.

• The benefit of a No. 9 hitter gaining an extra base often outweighs the cost of being thrown out. Advancing into scoring position for the top of the order has tremendous value, especially with two outs. Scoring a runner from first base with two outs is unlikely, so moving to second base has enhanced value in that game state.

Even if the basestealer is unsuccessful, the leadoff hitter begins the next inning. 

Early in the 2024 season, we are seeing No. 8 and 9 hitters attempting stolen bases at the same high rate as leadoff hitters, though overall takeoff rates are lower than last year—caveat: It’s early, but still much higher than they were in 2022.