Dynasty Shortstop Targets, Sleepers And Fades For 2024
Image credit: (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
As with the other positions, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White reveal who they’re targeting, who they think are sleepers, and which auld acquaintances should be forgot at the hot corner – where they identify players who they think will meet or exceed their current fantasy value; those whose starting value is outside the top tier at the position but who have a good chance of jumping substantially in value; and those players who are potentially at the peak of their dynasty value.
You can find all of positional rankings, target/sleeper/fades lists, deep dives, articles about strategy and all things fantasy in BA’s Fantasy Baseball 2024 HQ here.
Shortstops To Target
Oneil Cruz, Pirates
It’s quite possible Cruz has been somewhat overlooked coming into 2024 after an ankle injury robbed him of all but 40 major league plate appearances in 2023. A combination of Elly De La Cruz type power, speed and arm strength before De La Cruz burst onto the scene, Cruz appears to be back to full strength as he prepares for his age-25 season. If he recovers back to his 2022 major league levels—where he had a 98th percentile sprint speed, a 96th percentile barrel rate, and a 97th percentile arm strength—20 home runs and 20 stolen bases should be his floor for the next handful of years.
— Dylan White
Matt McLain, Reds
McLain had a 128 wRC+ (.290/.357/.507) with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases in 400 plate appearances upon arriving in Cincinnati in May. He’s eligible at both second base and shortstop and the positional flexibility gives him even more value than his 2024 projection of 25 home runs and 20 stolen bases. McLain is most likely to accrue the most plate appearances in 2024 of the Reds’ glut of major league-ready infielders. Add in the great home ballpark and the fact that he’ll be 24 years old for most of the 2024 season, it’s a big arrow up.
— Dylan White
Elly De La Cruz, Reds
How high is your risk tolerance? This is the question you must ask yourself before drafting or trading for Elly. De La Cruz debuted in June and hit .307/.358/.523 over his first 21 games. The league adjusted and De La Cruz struggled over the final 77 games of the season, hitting .213/.284/.377 with a 34.6% strikeout rate. Despite these struggles, De La Cruz finished 20th overall among shortstops. He has explosive qualities that few players possess, with true 30-home run and 30-steal upside. Under the hood, De La Cruz showed growth over the final months of the season, as his rate of swings outside the zone steadily dropped and his contact rate rose. With the negative feelings around De La Cruz’s debut, the smart money is buying the dip heading into 2024.
— Geoff Pontes
Francisco Lindor, Mets
Lindor has reached the point where he’s beginning to go underrated in dynasty leagues due to his age and some negative feelings after down 2020 and 2021 seasons. Lindor has record second and third overall among shortstops in each of the last two seasons since his down year in 2021. Entering his age-30 season, Lindor has multiple seasons left of elite production with true five-category contributions. His value remains consistent across a variety of scoring formats, whether it’s standard 5×5 roto, OBP and points. While Lindor may not have the same preseason helium of other names on this list, his production puts him among the elite at the position.
— Geoff Pontes
Shortstop Sleepers
Matt Shaw, Cubs
We have Matt Shaw ranked ahead of Dansby Swanson, Carlos Correa, and Willy Adames even before taking a major league at bat. After hitting .357/.400/.618 across three levels and reaching Double-A in his age-21 season, it seems clear that he will be an exciting combination of hitting ability, power and speed. It’s the latter—likely putting up 18 to 25 stolen bases yearly—that elevates him a tier above the solid veterans.
— Dylan White
Colt Emerson, Mariners
Emerson was an advanced high school bat with a 60-grade hit tool in the Mariners’ Top 10 entering 2024. He ranks seventh on our FYPD list entering 2024 after he hit .374/.496/.549 across two levels. Despite a small sample size of 79 plate appearances with Low-A Modesto, RoboScout ranked Emerson’s performance even higher than fellow teenage phenom Ethan Salas. Emerson could eventually be a plus defender at third base if he’s unable to stick at shortstop. We ranked him No. 35 in our overall shortstop rankings. Adael Amador (No. 15) is the highest-ranked prospect yet to debut in the majors. Don’t be surprised if Emerson finds himself in that tier entering the 2025 season.
— Dylan White
Adael Amador, Rockies
Amador’s bat-to-ball ability and advanced plate approach put him in rare company among prospects. Over his three seasons as a professional, Amador has showcased elite contact and approach metrics while showing solid underlying exit velocity data. Amador is rarely beaten in the zone, and avoids strikeouts as well as any prospect at the moment. He reached Double-A in 2023 and should return to the level to begin 2024. If Amador continues to hit to begin 2024, he could force his way to the Rockies active roster by mid-summer. Amador has the potential to be a long-term category winner in batting average. Think Luis Arraez with more power and speed.
Colson Montgomery, White Sox
Injuries have limited Montgomery over his first few professional seasons, but when the shortstop is healthy he shows some of the best batted ball data in the minor leagues. Montgomery has elite barrel control, which allows him to optimize his best contact. His underlying expected number like xWOBA (.408) and xWOBAcon (.433) rank among the best in the game, highlighting his robust offensive skill set. Back injuries have plagued Montgomery, adding an element of risk, but his price has yet to meet his value in the public space.
Shortstops To Fade
Carlos Correa, Twins
Correa aggregated over 10 WAR with an wRC+ of 137 (37% more runs created per plate appearance than league average) in 2021 and 2022. Plagued by recurring plantar fasciitis, Correa’s bat took a large step back to below league average last year. He is still under 30 years old but we’ve seen these types of injuries significantly accelerate the fantasy decline of once-formidable hitters—see Kris Bryant and Albert Pujols— and there’s a reasonably high chance that Correa may be another one. It should be noted, though, that projection systems thus far foresee a bounceback and consider 2023 a blip. Don’t count on any stolen bases though—Correa hasn’t stolen a base in the major leagues since April 2019.
— Dylan White
Oneil Cruz, Pirates
As Dylan covered above, Cruz is an incredibly fun player to roster in fantasy. The potential upside for 30 home runs with a solid average and some steals is tantalizing. But is Cruz capable of reaching those heights in the coming years? In 2022, Cruz hit .232/.336/.422 with nine home runs and 11 steals over 55 Triple-A games. Not since his time at Double-A in 2021 has Cruz shown he can dominate competition. Coming off an injury and still plenty of swing-and-miss risk, Cruz is unlikely to return value in dynasty leagues for a few more years.
— Geoff Pontes
