Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Stock Watch – Injury Updates, Camp Battles & Suspensions
Image credit: Noelvi Marte (Photo by Aaron Doster/Getty Images)
Gerrit Cole, Noelvi Marte, the Dylan Cease trade and we’ve just scratched the surface of everything that has happened since the last time we updated the stock watch two weeks ago. With so many injuries in murky territory in terms of timeline, many of these updates are noted but players haven’t been moved much, as we wait for final moves until further information becomes available. Over the last two weeks, there has been an onslaught of injuries, camp battles and suspensions. The winners and losers are detailed below.
Gerrit Cole – Elbow injury, expected to miss one to two months at minimum
This is by far the biggest news in fantasy baseball this spring, as the top pitcher in the American League will miss significant time. The report per Jon Heyman is a timeline of one to two months. However, in the same report it stated that Cole was scheduled for a consultation with Dr. Neal ElAttrache. The one to two–month timeline doesn’t seem to reflect anything realistic, and it’s reasonable to remove Cole from your draft boards for redraft and startups. We moved Cole down behind Aaron Nola for now, but further updates could see Cole tumble further. It’s reasonable to explore trade options, but the market is going to vary greatly depending on your league’s scoring, roster structure and collective risk tolerance.
Noelvi Marte – Suspended 80 games for performance-enhancing drugs
This news broke last week and immediately solved the logjam of infielders—and capable fantasy contributors—that the Reds faced. Many fantasy analysts, Baseball America included, had high expectations for Marte in 2024. He could still meet those expectations partially in the second half but this puts a damper on his redraft value. As far as his dynasty rank, he’s a slight move down for now. Marte had a good mix of skills and power and was always fairly physical. How much of Marte’s power was aided by the anabolic steroid he tested positive for remains to be seen. Marte was aggressively ranked inside the top 100 dynasty players and will move down behind teammate Christian Encarnacion-Strand and fellow third base prospect Coby Mayo.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – Injury beneficiary
Christian Encarnacion-Strand is the biggest beneficiary of the Noelvi Marte suspension, as a spot opens up in the Reds lineup. Encarnacion-Strand has a great combination of contact and power, but takes a hit in on-base percentage leagues. Encarnacion-Strand has the ability to hit 30 home runs this season with full-time run. Encarnacion-Strand already ranked just outside the top 100 on our dynasty rankings, so this move doesn’t impact his value long term, but simply boosts his 2024 potential output.
Dylan Cease – Traded to the Padres
Josh Norris wrote up the trade last night, with full reports on the prospects traded. This is an upgrade for Cease, as far as team and park, but there’s been some shaky performances over the last year that give us pause. His slider backed up in 2023 and he had a reverse in luck. For now, Cease’s value doesn’t move. Going to the White Sox were Drew Thorpe, Jairo Iriarte and Samuel Zavala. While Thorpe is the only current Top 100 Prospect, all three players have been on the Top 100 list at points over the last season. Thorpe likely joins the White Sox rotation at some point in the first half of 2024, while Iriarte is more likely a late season callup. While Thorpe has more starter traits, Iriarte is athletic with excellent stuff and could have a higher upside than Thorpe. Zavala is a power bat with good on-base skills and poor bat-to-ball ability.
Devin Williams – Will miss three months with multiple fractures in his back
This was a major shot to Williams managers in dynasty, as he will miss nearly half of 2024 and faces free agency at the end of the season. Williams moves down nearly two hundred plus spots on the Dynasty 700, as back injuries tend to be nagging. Additionally, Williams is in the last year of his contract and may end up on another team not closing in the short term. The obvious question is who steps in as the Brewers closer in his absence. Our favorite option is Joel Payamps, who was one of the better set-up men in baseball in 2023. The other option is likely Trevor Megill, who sits upper 90s but is 75% fastball usage. We’ll adjust accordingly as the fill-in becomes clear in the coming weeks.
Junior Caminero – Demoted to minors
This was stated earlier in camp, and the Rays followed through by sending Caminero down to the minors. This makes Caminero the top potential call-up this season. It’s possible Caminero is down for a few weeks to a month while the Rays try to optimize team control and it does not impact Caminero’s long-term dynasty value.
Jackson Merrill – Breaks camp with Padres
After a standout camp from Merrill and a successful move to the outfield, the Padres No. 2 prospect will break camp with the team. While he has not been named the everyday center fielder, it looks likely that the job is his. Merrill has a polished hit tool and strong plate skills. Still growing into his power, Merrill’s early seasons likely produce 17-23 home run power with strong batting average and counting stats. Merrill’s accelerated timeline and multi-position eligibility make him the biggest mover on the list, jumping from 214 overall and the 41st overall prospect to a top-20 prospect and well inside the top 150 players.
Lars Nootbaar – Two fractured ribs
Nootbaar suffered two non-displaced rib fractures after a collision with an outfield wall. He’s unlikely to be ready for the opening series of the season. This is a tough blow for the Cardinals, as Tommy Edman is also sidelined as he recovers from arthroscopic wrist surgery this offseason. While Nootbaar will likely return later in April, Edman’s timeline is more murky. This opens up the opportunity for Victor Scott to break camp with the team. Scott has had a strong camp, and in addition to being the best outfield defender in the organization, he’s also a dynamic force at the top of the lineup with contact, on-base ability and 80-grade speed and base-running ability.
Jared Jones – Dominating in spring training
Jones was left off the Spring Breakout roster for the Pirates, hinting he might have an opportunity to crack the Pirates rotation when the team breaks camp. Jones is outside the top 300 right now, and will slide into the 250 in the updated list. It’s still the Pirates, and spring training performance is not always indicative of success as a starter in the majors over a full season. Regardless, Jones has flashed legitimate stuff with a plus fastball and slider combination with elite bat-missing ability.
