Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects
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| TOP 10 PROSPECTS | |
| 1. Michael Fulmer, rhp | |
| 2. Beau Burrows, rhp | |
| 3. Mike Gerber, of | |
| 4. Christin Stewart, of | |
| 5. JaCoby Jones, ss | |
| 6. Kevin Ziomek, lhp | |
| 7. Joe Jimenez, rhp | |
| 8. Dixon Machado, ss | |
| 9. Spencer Turnbull, rhp | |
| 10. Derek Hill, of | |
After winning the American League Central division four years in a row, the Tigers plummeted to last place with a 74-87 record in 2015.
Where they go from here remains uncertain. The World Series-champion Royals are now the favorites in the AL Central, and while the rest of the division isn’t insurmountable, the Tigers look like a team whose window for contention has closed, without the young talent on the farm system to help turn things around.
Since 2010, the highest the Tigers’ farm system has placed on the talent rankings is No. 22, so a thin prospect crop has never hampered them before. Shrewd trades and one of the game’s top payrolls were key during the organization’s stretch of division titles from 2011-14, but the architect of those deals is no longer in the organization. The Tigers fired general manager Dave Dombrowski in August and promoted Al Avila from assistant GM to take over, with the rest of the front office mostly remaining intact.
Now the Tigers are at a crossroads. Owner Mike Ilitch doesn’t want a full tear-it-down rebuild, so the Tigers continue to focus on 2016 instead of taking a step back.
A lot of things would have to go right for the Tigers to return to the postseason. Their offense ranked third in baseball with a .748 team OPS. The pitching staff, however, allowed the third-most runs in baseball.
David Price anchored the rotation, but he’s now gone. Justin Verlander looks more like a mid-rotation arm than an ace, while Anibal Sanchez’s ERA swelled to 4.99.
After losing Max Scherzer following the 2014 season and trading Price in 2015, the Tigers signed righthander Jordan Zimmermann to a five-year, $110 million contract. They also signed No. 5 starter Mike Pelfrey and reliever Mark Lowe while trading for bullpen arms Francisco Rodriguez and Justin Wilson.
The Tigers will need breakout seasons from the pitchers they acquired in 2015. Lefthanders Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd arrived from the Blue Jays in the Price deal. Norris has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter if he can improve his command. Righthander Michael Fulmer, acquired from the Mets for Yoenis Cespedes, is now the organization’s top prospect. He could get to the big leagues by midseason.
A handful of relief prospects with low ceilings could help in 2016, but the best talent in the system still is at least a couple of years away. Top arms Beau Burrows and Kevin Ziomek and outfielders Mike Gerber and Christin Stewart have promise, but they won’t be factors in 2016.
In a perfect-world scenario, veterans such as Verlander and Miguel Cabrera stay healthy and produce at close to peak levels, third baseman Nick Castellanos takes a step forward and the bullpen outperforms expectations, while young pitchers like Norris and Fulmer contribute in a hurry. More likely, the Tigers might find their 2016 record will look a lot like it did in 2015.
Last Year’s Tigers Top 10 Prospects
1. Michael Fulmer, rhp
Born: March 15, 1993. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 200. Drafted: HS—Edmond, Okla., 2011 (1st round supp.). Signed by: Steve Gossett (Mets).
| SCOUTING GRADES Fastball: 60 Slider: 60 Changeup: 45 Control: 55 Based on 20-80 scouting scale—where 50 represents major league average—and future projection rather than present tools. |
Background: Going back to his amateur days, Fulmer always has been a talented arm overshadowed by others.
| TOP PROSPECTS OF THE DECADE | ||
| Year | Player, Pos. | 2015 Org. |
| 2006 | Justin Verlander, rhp | Tigers |
| 2007 | Cameron Maybin, of | Braves |
| 2008 | Rick Porcello, rhp | Red Sox |
| 2009 | Rick Porcello, rhp | Red Sox |
| 2010 | Jacob Turner, rhp | Cubs |
| 2011 | Jacob Turner, rhp | Cubs |
| 2012 | Jacob Turner, rhp | Cubs |
| 2013 | Nick Castellanos, of | Tigers |
| 2014 | Nick Castellanos, 3b/of | Tigers |
| 2015 | Steven Moya, of | Tigers |
As a high school senior in 2011 in Oklahoma, when he was teammates with current Marlins farmhand Brian Anderson, Fulmer drew the attention of scouts for his big fastball, but he was considered to be in the second tier of the state’s high school class behind Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley. He signed with the Mets that year for $937,500 as the No. 44 overall pick and made slow, steady progress through the system, though again he got upstaged in a system replete with talented power arms like Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. Limited to nine starts in 2013 after having surgery in spring training to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, Fulmer put together a solid season in 2014 and finally reached Double-A at the end of the year for one start before he had surgery to clean out a bone spur and bone chips from his elbow. While the promise and potential was always evident, the results never quite matched the pure stuff until 2015, when Fulmer led the Eastern League in ERA (2.12) and strikeouts per nine innings (8.9) and was named the EL pitcher of the year. He changed teams but stayed in the league when he was the primary trade chip (along with righthander Luis Cessa) in the July 31 deal that sent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes from the Tigers to the Mets. The Tigers placed Fulmer on the 40-man roster in November, shielding him from the Rule 5 draft.
Scouting Report: Ranked No. 13 in the Mets’ farm system a year ago, Fulmer was one of the most improved pitching prospects in baseball in 2015. He has a big, physical frame and has two plus pitches, starting with a fastball that parks at 91-94 mph and can reach 97. It’s a lively fastball with heavy sink that helps him generate an abundance of weak contact, with his groundball rate jumping to a career-high level in 2015. Fulmer can generate weak contact early in the count with his heavy fastball, or he can put hitters away when he gets to two strikes by using his power slider, a plus pitch with sharp, two-plane break and good depth. He mostly relies on those two pitches, but he mixes in an occasional curveball along with a fringe-average changeup. Throwing slightly across his body, Fulmer has been a solid strike-thrower, but he tightened his control and his command in 2015 as he became more consistent with his ability to repeat his mechanics and his release point. Durability still remains a question for Fulmer. He logged a career-high 125 innings in 2015 and already has had one elbow operation.
The Future: Fulmer has the stuff to be a No. 3 starter if he proves he can handle the increased workload. If not, he has the stuff to dominate in the back of the bullpen, which has been a perennial weakness for the Tigers. Fulmer provides more value if he can start, so the organization plans to keep him in that role. He probably will begin 2016 at Triple-A Toledo, but he could reach the big leagues by the all-star break.
| 2015 Club (Class) | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| Binghamton (AA) | 6 | 2 | 1.88 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 73 | 3 | 23 | 83 | .227 |
| Erie (AA) | 4 | 1 | 2.84 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 27 | 4 | 7 | 33 | .231 |
2. Beau Burrows, rhp
Born: Sept. 18, 1996. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 200. Drafted: HS—Weatherford, Texas, 2015 (1st round). Signed by: Chris Wimmer. Video
Background: Burrows put himself on the scouting radar at a young age, showing a plus fastball as a high school sophomore. The Tigers drafted him in 2015 at No. 22 overall and signed him for $2,154,200. He pitched effectively in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League, though the Tigers kept him on a tight leash, and he never threw more than three innings in a start.
Scouting Report: Burrows is generously listed at 6-foot-2, but he packs electric stuff into his compact build and is a solid strike-thrower. His best pitch is his fastball, which sits at 93-95 mph and can climb to 98. He can miss bats with his power curveball, which is still inconsistent but flashes plus and is a pitch he’s able to throw for strikes. Burrows didn’t need a changeup in high school, but when he did throw the pitch, it made quick progress and showed good sink, giving him a chance to have a third average to above-average pitch. While Burrows is generally around the plate, his delivery features an extreme amount of tilt and is a concern for some scouts, as is his size. Others believe he will be durable and can develop into a frontline starter.
The Future: The pitching prospect with the highest ceiling in the organization, Burrows is still several years away from contributing at the big league level. He will begin his first full season at low Class A West Michigan in 2016.
| 2015 Club (Class) | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| GCL Tigers (R) | 1 | 0 | 1.61 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 18 | 0 | 11 | 33 | .184 |
3. Mike Gerber, of
Born: July 8, 1992. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 175. Drafted: Creighton, 2014 (15th round). Signed by: Marty Miller.
| TOP DRAFT PICKS OF THE DECADE | ||
| Year | Player, Pos. | 2015 Org. |
| 2006 | Andrew Miller, lhp | Yankees |
| 2007 | Rick Porcello, rhp | Red Sox |
| 2008 | Ryan Perry, rhp | Tigers |
| 2009 | Jacob Turner, rhp | Cubs |
| 2010 | Nick Castellanos, 3b (1st round supp.) | Tigers |
| 2011 | James McCann, c (2nd round) | Tigers |
| 2012 | Jake Thompson, rhp (2nd round) | Phillies |
| 2013 | Jonathon Crawford, rhp | Reds |
| 2014 | Derek Hill, of | Tigers |
| 2015 | Beau Burrows, rhp | Tigers |
Background: It didn’t take long to realize that the Tigers snagged a sleeper in Gerber as a 15th-round senior sign out of Creighton in 2014. After impressing scouts in his pro debut at short-season Connecticut that summer, he followed it up by hitting well in a conservative assignment to low Class A West Michigan in 2015, then built upon that with a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League.
Scouting Report: Gerber is a well-rounded player with a mature hitting approach. He puts together quality at-bats, recognizes pitches well and has a sound swing with good balance. He’s a short-armed hitter who keeps the barrel in the hitting zone for a long time, which enables him to make frequent contact and stay through the middle of the field. His strong wrists and forearms help him generate solid-average raw power to go deep to any part of the field. A center fielder in college, Gerber moved to right field as a pro and has played well there, with average speed and an above-average arm.
The Future: Some scouts remain skeptical of Gerber, believing he might top out as an extra outfielder. Others see a player who could develop into an everyday right fielder with the ability to contribute at the plate and in the field, a la the Angels’ Kole Calhoun. After Gerber hit .280/.371/.440 in the AFL, he’s a candidate to open 2016 at Double-A Erie.
| 2015 Club (Class) | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| West Michigan (Lo A) | .292 | .355 | .468 | 513 | 74 | 150 | 31 | 10 | 13 | 76 | 49 | 97 | 16 |
4. Christin Stewart, of
Born: Dec. 10, 1993. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Tennessee, 2015 (1st round). Signed by: Harold Zonder. Video
Background: As a high school junior, Stewart set a single-season Georgia state record with 26 home runs, then tied Micah Owings for the career mark (69). He added to his power-hitting pedigree at Tennessee and signed with the Tigers in 2015 for $1,795,100 as the No. 34 overall pick, which the Tigers received as free agent compensation for Max Scherzer.
Scouting Report: Stewart has a strong, physical build with plus bat speed and good leverage in his swing, which produces plus raw power to all fields. He’s an aggressive hitter whose swing gets long, and he is prone to swinging through breaking balls with a pull approach, which gave scouts concern about his strikeout rate as an amateur. In college, Stewart had a habit of getting topspin on balls to his pull side, but in pro ball he started to pull balls with backspin, showing big power without excessive swing and miss. Stewart’s below-average speed and arm strength limit him to left field.
The Future: If Stewart can make the adjustment to breaking balls and continue to improve his contact rate, he could be an everyday left fielder. He is ready to be tested at high Class A Lakeland in 2016.
| 2015 Club (Class) | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| GCL Tigers (R) | .364 | .462 | .682 | 22 | 5 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| Connecticut (SS) | .245 | .322 | .490 | 49 | 7 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| West Michigan (Lo A) | .286 | .375 | .492 | 185 | 29 | 53 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 18 | 45 | 3 |
5. JaCoby Jones, ss
Born: May 10, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 205. Drafted: Louisiana State, 2013 (3rd round). Signed by: Jerome Cochran (Pirates).
| LARGEST BONUSES IN CLUB HISTORY | ||
| Jacob Turner, 2009 | $4,700,000 | |
| Rick Porcello, 2007 | $3,580,000 | |
| Andrew Miller, 2006 | $3,550,000 | |
| Eric Munson, 1999 | $3,500,000 | |
| Nick Castellanos, 2010 | $3,450,000 | |
Background: At Louisiana State, Jones mostly played second base, but he moved to shortstop when he joined the Pirates, staying there despite a knee injury that ended his pro debut. He reached Double-A in late July 2015, then a few days later was traded to the Tigers for Joakim Soria. He went to the Arizona Fall League, but he drew a 50-game suspension after a second positive test for what MLB classified as a “drug of abuse.”
Scouting Report: Jones has a promising power-speed combination, though it remains questionable whether he will ever hit enough for his tools to translate. He has strong wrists and plus raw power. He rolls over too many groundballs, but when he gets the ball airborne, he uses the whole field and can go deep to any part of the park. Jones strikes out too much, a combination of a long swing and poor pitch recognition. With his plus speed, he’s a constant threat to steal. Jones isn’t built like a prototype wiry shortstop, but he’s a good athlete with a strong arm who improved his jumps off the bat.
The Future: If Jones can tighten his plate discipline and make more contact, he could be a dynamic shortstop, but it’s a high-risk profile. He will likely return to Double-A to begin 2016.
| 2015 Club (Class) | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| Bradenton (Hi A) | .253 | .313 | .396 | 379 | 48 | 96 | 18 | 3 | 10 | 58 | 31 | 113 | 14 |
| Altoona (AA) | .500 | .545 | .500 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Erie (AA) | .250 | .331 | .463 | 136 | 26 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 17 | 52 | 10 |
6. Kevin Ziomek, lhp
Born: March 1, 1992. B-T: R-L. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 200. Drafted: Vanderbilt, 2013 (2nd round). Signed by: Harold Zonder.
Background: A Massachusetts prep who pitched for Vanderbilt, Ziomek signed with the Tigers for $956,600 as a second-round pick in 2013. For a fairly polished college draft pick, he has moved slowly through the system one level at a time. He led the low Class A Midwest League in ERA (2.27) in 2014, then spent all of 2015 in the high Class A Florida State League, which he led with 143 strikeouts.
Scouting Report: While system-mates Michael Fulmer and Beau Burrows have high-octane stuff to blow hitters away, Ziomek relies more on his feel for pitching and a repertoire of solid stuff across the board. His fastball jumped slightly in 2015, sitting more 89-92 mph and touching 94 with good life and downhill plane to help him generate groundballs. His changeup lagged in college, but he threw it with much more frequency in 2015 and it now flashes as a tick above-average pitch. He throws an average slider and a fringy curveball, though they can get sweepy and run together. Ziomek throws slightly across his body and isn’t smooth with his mechanics, but it adds to his deception and he repeats his delivery, which makes him a prolific strike-thrower. He struggles to hold baserunners and allowed an FSL-high 38 steal attempts in 2015.
The Future: Ziomek is ready for Double-A Erie and could reach Detroit by the end of 2016 if the organization wants to push him. He could eventually slot into the back of the rotation.
| 2015 Club (Class) | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| Lakeland (Hi A) | 9 | 11 | 3.43 | 27 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 155 | 142 | 3 | 34 | 143 | .242 |
7. Joe Jimenez, rhp
Born: Jan. 17, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 220. Signed: HS—Gurabo, P.R., 2013 (NDFA). Signed by: Rolando Casanova/German Geigel.
| BEST TOOLS | ||
| Best Hitter for Average | Mike Gerber | |
| Best Power Hitter | Steven Moya | |
| Best Strike-Zone Discipline | Mike Gerber | |
| Fastest Baserunner | Derek Hill | |
| Best Athlete | Derek Hill | |
| Best Fastball | Spencer Turnbull | |
| Best Curveball | Beau Burrows | |
| Best Slider | Joe Jimenez | |
| Best Changeup | Jeff Ferrell | |
| Best Control | Kevin Ziomek | |
| Best Defensive Catcher | Arvicent Perez | |
| Best Defensive Infielder | Dixon Machado | |
| Best Infield Arm | Dixon Machado | |
| Best Defensive Outfielder | Derek Hill | |
| Best Outfield Arm | Steven Moya | |
Background: Teams whiffed on Jimenez as an amateur, when he went undrafted out of the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy in 2013 and signed with the Tigers as a free agent. His velocity jumped quickly as a pro, and he served as closer for low Class A West Michigan during its 2015 Midwest League championship run.
Scouting Report: Developed as a reliever since he signed, Jimenez struck out 38 percent of the batters he faced for West Michigan. He gets results with two pitches, starting with a fastball that ranges from 94-99 mph. His fastball has sneaky late life, which combined with his velocity makes it a swing-and-miss pitch. Jimenez can also miss bats with his solid-average slider, which he adds and subtracts from, throwing it with more force as a putaway pitch when he gets to a two-strike count. Jimenez’s delivery features effort, and his arm stroke is long, but he has deception, repeats his mechanics and is able to throw consistent strikes, with his stuff effective against both righties and lefties so far.
The Future: Being a relief prospect limits Jimenez’s ceiling, and he still has several levels to climb to reach the majors, but he has the stuff and control to be a closer. The Tigers could fast-track him through the system in 2016, particularly after a strong performance in the Puerto Rican League that included a 20-to-1 strikeout-walk ratio in 16 innings.
| 2015 Club (Class) | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| West Michigan (Lo A) | 5 | 1 | 1.47 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 43 | 23 | 2 | 11 | 61 | .153 |
8. Dixon Machado, ss
Born: Feb. 22, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 170. Signed: Venezuela, 2008. Signed by: German Robles.
Background: Machado was once so frail that he managed just three extra-base hits in 124 games at low Class A West Michigan in 2012. The next year, he struggled with leg injuries and didn’t perform, so the Tigers removed him from the 40-man roster. Since then, Machado has remained healthy, and he followed up a strong 2014 campaign at Double-A with a steady 2015 season at Triple-A Toledo. He made his big league debut in May for a few games before returning as a September callup.
Scouting Report: While at Double-A Erie in 2014, Machado simplified his swing and approach, which provided the springboard for his offensive turnaround. He still profiles as a bottom-of-the-order hitter, but he uses his hands well at the plate, recognizes balls and strikes and puts the ball in play with a line-drive approach. He can sneak a ball over the fence to his pull side but is mostly a singles hitter. Where Machado shines is in the field. Once a plus runner, he has filled out, battled leg injuries and now has average speed, but he has a quick first step, good range, smooth hands and a plus arm at shortstop.
The Future: Machado won’t supplant Jose Iglesias in Detroit, and his bat looks light to be an everyday player, but his glove could make him a utility candidate.
| 2015 Club (Class) | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| Toledo (AAA) | .261 | .313 | .332 | 509 | 61 | 133 | 22 | 1 | 4 | 48 | 36 | 85 | 15 |
| Detroit (MLB) | .235 | .307 | .279 | 68 | 6 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
9. Spencer Turnbull, rhp
Born: Sept. 18, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 215. Drafted: Alabama, 2014 (2nd round). Signed by: Bryson Barber.
| PROJECTED 2019 LINEUP | ||
| Catcher | James McCann | |
| First Base | Miguel Cabrera | |
| Second Base | JaCoby Jones | |
| Third Base | Nick Castellanos | |
| Shortstop | Jose Iglesias | |
| Left Field | Mike Gerber | |
| Center Field | Cameron Maybin | |
| Right Field | J.D. Martinez | |
| Designated Hitter | Christin Stewart | |
| No. 1 Starter | Jordan Zimmermann | |
| No. 2 Starter | Justin Verlander | |
| No. 3 Starter | Daniel Norris | |
| No. 4 Starter | Michael Fulmer | |
| No. 5 Starter | Matt Boyd | |
| Closer | Joe Jimenez | |
Background: The Tigers have shown an affinity for drafting power arms out of the Southeastern Conference, a mold Turnbull fits. Signed for $900,000 as a second-round pick from Alabama in 2014, he pitched well in his first full season at low Class A Michigan, where he didn’t allow a home run in 117 innings, making him the only qualified minor league starter to accomplish that feat.
Scouting Report: Playing in a pitcher-friendly park in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League helped Turnbull keep the ball in the yard, but it’s also difficult for hitters to get his fastball in the air. He added an extra tick of velocity in 2015, sitting at 93-95 mph and peaking at 99. His fastball combined big velo and movement, with hard, heavy sink that produces a lot of groundballs. Turnbull’s fastball is his best pitch, but his slider has become an average pitch, though not a consistent swing-and-miss offering. He also throws a below-average changeup. The biggest developmental focus for Turnbull will be to improve his below-average control. With the effort in his delivery and his long arm action, that might be tricky for him to fix.
The Future: Turnbull has a chance to stay in the rotation if he improves his changeup and his command, but many scouts see his most likely role as a reliever, with the power stuff that could play in the back of the bullpen. High Class A Lakeland will be next in 2016.
| 2015 Club (Class) | W | L | ERA | G | GS | CG | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| West Michigan (Lo A) | 11 | 3 | 3.01 | 22 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 117 | 106 | 0 | 52 | 106 | .242 |
10. Derek Hill, of
Born: Dec. 30, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 195. Drafted: HS—Elk Grove, Calif., 2014 (1st round). Signed by: Scott Cerny. Video
Background: Hill, whose father Orsino played 12 pro seasons and now scouts for the Dodgers, signed with the Tigers for $2 million as their first-round pick in 2014. He missed time with lower back pain in 2014, then in 2015 went on the disabled list for two weeks in April after pulling his left quadriceps. He returned, but re-aggravated the injury on July 10 and finished the year on the DL.
Scouting Report: Hill is the system’s most explosive athlete, a double-plus runner who glides around the outfield. His defensive instincts are polished for his age, and he gets good jumps off the bat and takes direct routes to the ball, helping him cover plenty of ground in center field to go with an average, accurate arm. Hill has a quick swing, but he has a long way to go to become a productive hitter. Just before he got hurt, he had shown progress hitting the ball where it’s pitched, but he has to work to keep his swing short. He still is learning how to turn on the ball with authority, and right now he typically only pulls the ball when he rolls one over for a groundout to the left side. He has below-average power, so he will have to improve his ability to hit for average and get on base to have value.
The Future: Hill has proven to be more raw than the Tigers initially expected. After struggling in the Midwest League in 2015, he could return there to start 2016.
| 2015 Club (Class) | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| West Michigan (LoA) | .238 | .305 | .314 | 210 | 33 | 50 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 16 | 20 | 44 | 25 |
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