Despite Setbacks, MacKenzie Gore Remains On Normal Timeline For High School Pitchers

Of the 507 high school pitchers drafted and signed between 2010-16, just 42 have gone on to pitch 100 innings in a major league season. It took those pitchers an average of six years from the time they were drafted until they crossed the 100-inning threshold in the majors for the first time. The median was six years, as well.

Even as additional pitchers from those drafts reach 100 innings for the first time in the coming years, it won’t shorten the average or median timeline—the 2022 season marks six years for the 2016 draftees and seven or more years for earlier draftees. 

Taking that long has no bearing on a pitcher’s ability to develop into a frontline starter. The list of high school draftees who took six or more years to throw 100 innings in the majors from the time they were selected includes White Sox all-star Lucas Giolito (six years), 2018 American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell (six years), Braves World Series hero Max Fried (seven years) and Rays ace Tyler Glasnow (seven years).

Six years would put Gore on track to pitch 100 innings for the first time in 2023. If Gore is able to regain his previous form in 2022, earn an early callup to the majors and spend a good chunk of the year in the Padres rotation, he would beat the average and join excellent company among pitchers who posted their first 100-inning season only five years after they were drafted.

That list includes reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, all-stars Jose Berrios and Noah Syndergaard and burgeoning Braves standout Ian Anderson. Even the “worst” pitcher who pitched 100 innings in the majors five years after being drafted, Nationals righthander Joe Ross, has settled into a career as roughly a league-average starter when healthy.

As much as Gore’s pitch mix, command and athleticism excited when he was at his best, expecting him to be a rotation regular any earlier than 2022 was probably unrealistic. It is exceedingly rare for a high school draftee to throw 100 innings in a major league season fewer than five years after he was drafted.

Of those 507 high school pitchers drafted and signed between 2010-16, just six—Jose Fernandez, Lance McCullers Jr., Matt Wisler, Jack Flaherty, Mike Soroka and Chris Paddack—pitched 100 innings in an MLB season less than five years after they were selected.

Notably, those few exceptions are all righthanders. The last high school lefthanders to throw 100 innings in the majors less than five years after being drafted were Madison Bumgarner and Danny Duffy, both drafted in 2007.

Gore still has a lot of work ahead to regain his place as one of baseball’s top pitching prospects. The success rate of high school draftees ever throwing 100 innings in a major league season, even once, is less than 10%. The more than 90% who failed to do it include prospects who were every bit as touted as Gore.

But just because Gore isn’t in the majors yet or is taking longer than hoped for doesn’t mean he’ll never live up to expectations or be a regular member of a rotation. High school pitchers take time, a mantra repeated again and again but often forgotten as soon as one flashes immense potential in the low levels of the minor leagues. The long list of pitchers who stormed through the low minors before hitting roadblocks in the upper minors includes Giolito, Fried and Ray, all of whom still became some of the top starters in the game.

Taking six years to become an established member of a starting rotation is standard for a high school draftee. Taking five is an accelerated track. Anything less than five is extremely rare and should never be the expectation, especially for lefthanders.

Despite Gore’s recent struggles, he’s still on the pace to be expected from a high school pitcher. Even if it’s not until 2023 he establishes himself as a bonafide big league starter, he’ll still be in great company.