Chris Paddack

Organization Prospect Rankings

• 
  Ranked San Diego Padres #6 prospect in 2019
  Track Record: The Padres' 2016 summer sell-off kicked into high gear when they traded Fernando Rodney to the Marlins for Paddack in June. Paddack succumbed to Tommy John surgery three starts into his Padres career and missed the next 22 months, but he returned with a vengeance in 2018. The big Texan delivered a 2.10 ERA between high Class A Lake Elsinore and Double-A San Antonio, with a jaw-dropping 120 strikeouts and eight walks in 90 innings.
  
  Scouting Report: Paddack earned the nickname "The Executioner"at Lake Elsinore for his ruthless precision in eliminating opponents. He sits 91-94 mph and reaches 97 on his lively fastball with carry, dialing it up and down with pristine command in all four quadrants of the strike zone. He pairs his plus fastball with an 82-84 mph changeup that is one of the best in the minors. He sells it with identical arm speed before it falls off the table with late depth at the bottom of the strike zone, getting both swings and misses and called strikes on both sides of the plate. Paddack's fastball, changeup and control are all plus or better, but his loopy 72-76 mph curveball is firmly below-average. He uses it less than 10 percent of the time, knowing it's extremely hittable the few times it lands in the strike zone.
  
  The Future: The list of successful big league righthanders without a breaking ball is a short one. Paddack will debut in 2019 and try to show he's an exception.
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  Ranked San Diego Padres #21 prospect in 2018
  Paddack put up insane numbers to start his first full season in 2016, posting a 0.95 ERA with 48 strikeouts and two walks in 28.1 innings for the Marlins low Class A affiliate Greensboro. The Padres acquired him in a one-for-one trade for Fernando Rodney that June. Paddack was similarly dominant for three starts at low Class A Fort Wayne but succumbed to Tommy John surgery in July, ending his season and wiping out all of 2017 as well. When healthy, Paddack excelled with a darting 90-95 mph fastball, a plus-plus mid-80s changeup and elite control. His fastball-changeup combination was his bread-and-butter, but his mid-70s curveball gradually improved to a usable pitch with decent depth as he became more consistent with his release point. Paddack got bigger and stronger during his rehab and showed hints of a velocity bump during bullpen sessions in instructional league, but shut down early with elbow tenderness. Health is Paddack's biggest question mark. He missed six weeks with biceps tendinitis even before having Tommy John and has never thrown more than 45.1 innings in a season. He'll return to game action at the start of the 2018 season with a careful eye on his health and workload.
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  Ranked San Diego Padres #15 prospect in 2017
  The Marlins made Paddack the first player ever drafted out of Cedar Park (Texas) High in 2015 and signed him away from a Texas A&M commitment for $400,000. Almost one year to the day after drafting him, the Marlins sent him to the Padres in a one-for-one swap for Fernando Rodney. Paddack used his darting 90-95 mph fastball and double-plus mid-80s changeup to put up video-game numbers at low Class A Greensboro in 2016, where he recorded an 0.85 ERA with 71 strikeouts to just five walks in 42.1 innings. His fastball-changeup combo has been evident since high school, but he also made strides with his mid-70s curveball by finding a consistent release point and giving it increased depth, making it project now as a possibly average pitch. Health concerns overshadow Paddack's pitch mix and strong control. He missed the first six weeks of 2016 with biceps tendinitis and then had Tommy John surgery in August after just three starts in the Padres system, which will keep him out all of 2017. Paddack is a potential mid-rotation starter with room in his projectable body to still add velocity, but he must prove he can stay healthy to reach that ceiling.
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  Ranked Miami Marlins #17 prospect in 2016
  Paddack went 11-0, 0.46 with 134 punchouts in 75 innings as a Cedar Park (Texas) High senior in 2015, and the Marlins gambled that they could sign him away from a Texas A&M pledge--and it worked. Miami secured Paddack for $400,000, more than double the value for his draft slot in eighth round. While still a work in progress, he looked dominant in 45 innings in the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League after signing. Paddack showed command of three pitches, including a double-plus changeup, in recording a 39-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His fastball sat 93-94 mph--up from 89-92 in high school--and his slider shows promise, though it's new to his arsenal. Paddack has plenty of projection in his lean 6-foot- 4 frame, because scouts believe he'll eventually grow to 6-foot-6 with plenty of room for good weight. One evaluator saw similarities with Cardinals starter Michael Wacha because of Paddack's outstanding changeup and connection to Texas A&M, but he stopped short of a direct comparison. The Marlins could assertively promote Paddack to low Class A Greensboro.

Draft Prospects

• Ranked #273 prospect in 2015 draft
  Paddack is nowhere near a finished product, but he has a chance to be pretty special. The Texas A&M commit has a present average fastball (89-92 mph) with room to add more strength to his 6-foot-5, 200-pound frame, with more velocity to come. He mixes the fastball with a very advanced changeup for a high school pitcher that could end up as an above-average pitch. He's turned his curveball into a slider, which has given it a better look, but it's still fringy. Paddack needs to add strength and good weight, but if he does, he could be one to watch in a few years.

Minor League Top Prospects

• 
  Ranked California League #3 prospect in 2018
  Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery and showed 22 months away from pitching didn’t have any negative effect on his stuff. He ranked first in WHIP (0.90), second in strikeouts (83), third in ERA (2.24) and fourth in opponent average (.224) during his time in the league before being promoted to Double-A. His 83-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio was especially eye-popping. Paddack parked his fastball at 90-93 mph and reached back for 95-96 when he wanted, commanding it expertly to both sides of the plate. His heater played up with late riding life through the zone, and he cut, ran or sinked his devastating changeup at will for swings and misses. “Paddack just seems more mature,” Inland Empire manager Ryan Barba said. “He’s more of a pitcher right now than most of the other guys.” The continued development of Paddack’s third pitch—presently a below-average curveball that is loopy and soft at 72-76 mph—will be key moving forward. He also needs to build endurance after being limited to 85 pitches per start.

Top 100 Rankings

• Ranked Baseball America's #66 prospect in 2019

• July, 2018 Scouting Report
  Paddack’s numbers in his return from Tommy John surgery look like something out of a video game: 6-2, 2.08, and an 95-to-7 strikeout-to-walk mark, but his below-average curveball raises concern about how he’ll perform at higher levels. Paddack is pitching at 90-93 mph and reaching back for 95-96 when he wants, has advanced fastball command and his changeup is one of the best in the minors. His third pitch development is just way behind, to the point it limits his ceiling. Paddack has limited pitches to try and improve it, with his pitch count presently capped at 85.