BA Hot 100: Dynasty First-Year Player Draft Rankings 2022

By Ben Badler Carlos Collazo Geoff Pontes
on January 10, 2022

The owners’ lockout of the players has all but extinguished the offseason hot stove, leaving baseball fans with little to look forward to in the short term.

Yet for a subgenre of baseball fans—dynasty league players—the early months of each year are critical to their fandom, whether or not a Collective Bargaining Agreement is in place.

Dynasty leagues typically conduct their first-year player drafts in January, February or March, with managers in those leagues hard at work each offseason reviewing the most recent MLB Draft class and incoming international signees. A shrewd FYPD pick in 2022 can pay off exponentially in the future, either as the player graduates to the major leagues or is used in a trade for MLB talent.

Dynasty leagues have exploded in popularity in the fantasy baseball space the past five to 10 years, and with that uptick in participation has come the tradition of ranking prospects for annual FYPDs.

This is Baseball America’s third crack at ranking the top 100 first-year prospects for dynasty leagues—you can see how we did in 2020 and 2021—and it's a ranking we call the Hot 100. Our focus this year is on 2021 draft picks plus the international free agents who sign when the 2021-22 period opens on Jan. 15. Also featured prominently is a 27-year-old Japanese professional coming off a 38-homer season.

BA is excited to have prospect writer Geoff Pontes on board for this edition. He brings extensive prospect knowledge, years of dynasty experience and overall passion to our proceedings. Pontes joins BA draft guru Carlos Collazo and international guru Ben Badler to provide what we believe is the best combination of scouting, analytical and fantasy expertise available for dynasty league managers as they prepare for their FYPDs.

We hope you enjoy the 2022 installment of the Hot 100.

A note about this ranking:

As the Hot 100 moves beyond the top 20, a grouping of similar player types emerges—lots of high school hitters and college pitchers—and this is in some ways by design. Different fantasy managers value different things outside of the top talents available in any given FYPD.

A competitive team at the top of the standings might value the lower risk of a collegiate hitter or starting pitcher, while a rebuilding squad may value high-upside, high-risk prep or international hitters. Drafting is largely a matter of preference, and our Hot 100 allows readers to see how each grouping blends together to inform their decision-making.

As always, we focus more on upside and positional talent versus pitching. This is a primary reason why players who rank highly on draft or organizational top prospects rankings may rank lower here. It’s a matter of applying the proper context through the lens of fantasy baseball, where power, speed and the hit tool are the most valuable attributes a position prospect can have. Conversely, pitching is all about power. The value of strikeouts is paramount in dynasty baseball and there is a heavy bias toward pitchers with swing-and-miss arsenals.

Key
— H stands for batting/pitching hand, where an asterisk (*) denotes lefthanded, blank signifies righthanded and a pound sign (#) means switch-hitter.
— BA Grades appear in the 2022 Prospect Handbook and estimate players' projected major league value on the 20-80 scouting scale. Each BA Grade comes with an assessment for Risk. In this exercise all players are assessed as either medium (M), high (H), very high (V) or extreme (X) risk.
— Click through each player to access all scouting reports we have on file for him.

Rk	H	Player	Pos	Org	Age	Source	T100	BA500	Bonus	Grade	Risk	ETA
1	*	Marcelo Mayer	SS	BOS	19	HS	15	2	$6,660,000	65	V	2025
Equipped with a projectable plus hit and plus power combination, Mayer has a franchise player ceiling. The Corey Seager comps make a lot of sense.
2		Brady House	SS	WAS	19	HS	59	7	$5,000,000	60	X	2025
A supremely talented prep infielder with plus raw power, a big league body and freakish athleticism for his size.
3		Jordan Lawlar	SS	ARI	19	HS	29	1	$6,710,000	65	X	2025
Feel to hit, power and speed provide a foundation to dream on; dealt with shoulder injury in first pro season.
4		Seiya Suzuki	OF	—	27	IFA	—	—	—	55	M	2022
A superstar in Japan, Suzuki must prove his power and production translate to the US. The only plug-and-play pick in this FYPD.
5	*	Kahlil Watson	SS	MIA	19	HS	60	6	$4,540,000	60	X	2025
A swing geared for power, as well as freakish twitch and athleticism make Watson anything but a consolation prize in this year’s draft.
6	*	Colton Cowser	OF	BAL	22	4YR	98	11	$4,900,000	55	H	2024
Cowser has one of the best hit tools in this year’s class. The Orioles are banking on his power to develop.
7		Henry Davis	C	PIT	22	4YR	41	4	$6,500,000	60	H	2024
The No. 1 pick in the MLB Draft is the best offensive catcher in this year’s class and arguably the best college hitter, with plate discipline and power.
8		Jack Leiter	RHP	TEX	22	4YR	25	3	$7,920,000	60	H	2024
The top pitching prospect, Leiter possesses one of the best fastballs in the class with a trio of secondaries and a fiery competitiveness.
9	*	Sal Frelick	OF	MIL	22	4YR	—	9	$4,000,000	55	V	2024
Offers double-plus speed with excellent strike-zone awareness and feel to hit. Leadoff profile, but questions remain about in-game power.
10		Matt McLain	SS	CIN	22	4YR	—	10	$4,630,000	55	H	2024
In a strong pro debut, McLain showcased above-average bat-to-ball skills and sneaky power. He will hit but for how much impact?
11	*	Trey Sweeney	SS	NYY	22	4YR	—	55	$3,000,000	50	H	2024
Sweeney is an analytical darling with advanced on-base ability and projectable plus power to dream on.
12		Harry Ford	C	SEA	19	HS	—	17	$4,370,000	55	X	2025
Ford is the rare uber-athletic catcher with power and speed. He has real offensive upside to dream on despite catcher risk.
13	*	Colson Montgomery	3B	CWS	20	HS	—	34	$3,030,000	55	X	2025
Projectable lefthanded power bat with room to add strength in his large frame; swing-and-miss concerns may lead to a power-over-hit profile.
14		James Triantos	3B	CHC	19	HS	—	59	$2,100,000	55	X	2025
Bat-first infield prospect turned in a strong pro debut. He has feel to hit and power, with more projection to come.
15	*	James Wood	OF	SD	19	HS	—	35	$2,600,000	55	X	2025
The 6-foot-7 power hitter made tweaks to his stance in his pro debut and finished strong after struggling with swing-and-miss in the spring.
16		Jay Allen	OF	CIN	19	HS	—	38	$2,400,000	55	X	2025
A multi-sport star in high school, Allen is a projectable outfielder who teased tantalizing feel to hit and power to dream on.
17		Jackson Jobe	RHP	DET	19	HS	79	8	$6,900,000	60	X	2025
Jobe features a four-pitch mix led by a mid-90s fastball and a hellacious 3,000 rpm slider.
18		Will Bednar	RHP	SF	22	4YR	—	18	$3,650,000	50	H	2024
Bednar misses bats with all three of his pitches, but his fastball shape and plus slider are his bread and butter. Starter profile.
19	*	Jordan Wicks	LHP	CHC	22	4YR	—	13	$3,130,000	50	H	2024
Midrotation starter profile with arguably the best changeup in the class, Wicks is a high-floor lefthander with feel for a four-pitch mix.
20		Sam Bachman	RHP	LAA	22	4YR	—	14	$3,850,000	55	H	2024
Bachman has one of the most electric arms in the class—but plenty of bullpen risk—with 100 mph sinkers and high-80s sliders.
21		Gunnar Hoglund	RHP	TOR	22	4YR	—	19	$3,250,000	55	X	2024
One of college baseball's top performers at the time of his injury, Hoglund has a high-spin, three-pitch mix; midrotation upside.
22		Gavin Williams	RHP	CLE	22	4YR	—	30	$2,250,000	55	V	2024
Few teams draft pitchers better than Cleveland, and Williams is a power righthander who has been up to 100 mph with a swing-and-miss slider.
23		Michael McGreevy	RHP	STL	21	4YR	—	16	$2,750,000	55	H	2024
A pitchability righty with plus control and feel for his four-pitch mix, McGreevy is in good hands. The Cardinals have optimized advanced strike-throwers.
24		Ty Madden	RHP	DET	22	4YR	—	12	$2,500,000	50	H	2024
Led by an upper-90s fastball and swing-and-miss slider, Madden is the classic hard-throwing starter who will go deep into starts.
25		Andrew Painter	RHP	PHI	19	HS	—	15	$3,900,000	60	X	2025
With four above-average or better pitches with a projectable 6-foot-7 frame, Painter was one of the most decorated prep pitchers in recent years.
26		Benny Montgomery	OF	COL	19	HS	—	23	$5,000,000	55	X	2025
Montgomery is a player whose tools are as loud as his questions. Lightning-quick bat speed and natural power in a quirky, unorthodox swing.
27		Joshua Baez	OF	STL	19	HS	—	31	$2,250,000	55	X	2025
With a power hitter's build, Baez launches balls to all fields with authority, but questions remain around swing-and-miss issues.
28	*	Joe Mack	C	MIA	19	HS	—	22	$2,500,000	50	X	2025
Advanced hitter with a chance to hit for plus power in his prime, Mack is among the most talented offensive players in the prep class.
29		Lonnie White Jr.	OF	PIT	19	HS	—	32	$1,500,000	55	X	2025
The two-sport star was committed to Penn State for football. White's game is unrefined, but he boasts the raw power and athleticism to be a star.
30	*	Cooper Kinney	2B	TB	19	HS	—	70	$2,150,000	50	V	2025
Hit-first infield prospect with the barrel control, advanced approach and developing plus power that could make him a fantasy star.
31		Jackson Merrill	SS	SD	19	HS	—	102	$1,800,000	55	X	2025
Raw, projectable power hitter reaped the benefits of a predraft growth spurt. Still growing into his body but middle-of-the-order upside.
32		Zack Gelof	3B	OAK	22	4YR	—	79	$1,160,000	50	H	2024
Post-draft standout ranked as No. 2 prospect in the Oakland system on the strength of his average hit tool and plus raw power.
33		Max Muncy	SS	OAK	19	HS	—	52	$2,850,000	55	X	2025
California prep standout with athleticism and projectable 20-home run power to dream on. Less refined than the top prep hitters in the class.
34	*	Tyler Black	2B	MIL	21	4YR	—	82	$2,220,000	50	H	2024
Pull-heavy, hit-first second baseman with advanced feel for the barrel. Black was one of the strongest hitters in the college ranks in 2021.
35		Connor Norby	2B	BAL	22	4YR	—	43	$1,700,000	50	H	2024
Norby has everyday regular upside because of a well-rounded game with an advanced approach and sneaky power and speed
36	*	Ethan Wilson	OF	PHI	22	4YR	—	26	$1,510,000	50	H	2024
Strong combination of power, hitting ability and on-base skills. Small-conference questions and early struggles in the spring.
37		Ryan Cusick	RHP	ATL	22	4YR	—	39	$2,700,000	50	H	2024
The massive 6-foot-6 righthander comes armed with a high-90s fastball and swing-and-miss curveball but comes with a high level of relief risk.
38		Carson Williams	SS	TB	19	HS	—	41	$2,350,000	55	X	2025
The two-way talent advanced rapidly as a position player. Williams possesses plus power but plenty of questions about his hit tool.
39	#	Roderick Arias	SS	NYY	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Arias projects to stick at shortstop with a well-rounded set of tools and skills on offense and defense, showing good plate coverage, speed and power potential.
40		Chase Petty	RHP	MIN	19	HS	—	29	$2,500,000	55	X	2025
The high school righthander has touched 100 mph with a deceptive delivery. Questions surround his mechanics and remaining projection.
41		Ricardo Cabrera	SS	CIN	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Cabrera should be one of the top international performers in his pro debut, with polished hitting ability for his age and a chance to hit for power too.
42	*	Frank Mozzicato	LHP	KC	19	HS	—	42	$3,550,000	55	X	2025
A projectable cold-weather lefty with a smooth, easy operation and feel for spin, Mozzicato will be a slow burn in fantasy. Is the upside worth it?
43		Bubba Chandler	RHP	PIT	19	HS	—	20	$3,000,000	55	X	2025
The draft's top two-way player, Chandler should likely be developed as a pitcher, where he could develop into a power starter.
44	*	Anthony Solometo	LHP	PIT	19	HS	—	28	$2,800,000	55	X	2025
A funky, low-slot lefty with power stuff and a starter's build to dream on, Solometo boasts midrotation upside.
45	*	Kyle Manzardo	1B	TB	21	4YR	—	80	$747,500	—	—	2024
Manzardo rose from obscurity in 2021 to post some of the gaudiest offensive production in Division I. Hit-over-power bat with advanced approach.
46	#	Cristian Vaquero	OF	WSH	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Vaquero is a sleek, athletic center fielder with power and speed potential, with his bonus likely to be the highest among this year's IFA signings.
47	*	Wes Kath	3B	CWS	19	HS	—	54	$1,800,000	55	X	2025
The power-hitting infielder with plus exit velocities maxes out at 108 mph. He has plenty of power to dream on, but hit tool concerns surfaced this summer.
48	*	Aaron Zavala	OF	TEX	22	4YR	—	125	$830,000	50	H	2024
Elite on-base ability and plate approach drive Zavala's profile, and his fringe-average power still has some projection remaining.
49		Ben Kudrna	RHP	KC	19	HS	—	47	$3,000,000	55	X	2025
A strike-throwing prep righthander with projectable stuff, Kudrna was up to 97 mph predraft with a slider that flashed plus.
50	*	Matt Mikulski	LHP	SF	23	4YR	—	40	$1,200,000	50	H	2023
Up to 98 mph last spring with high-spin stuff, Mikulski broke out early in the spring due to a reworked mechanics and a shortened arm action.
51	*	Lazaro Montes	OF/1B	SEA	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Montes has huge power potential, with limited defensive value but a chance to be a 30-plus home run hitter in the middle of a lineup.
52	*	Izaac Pacheco	SS	DET	19	HS	—	36	$2,750,000	55	X	2025
The prep slugger is likely to move off shortstop long term, but he impressed in his pro debut by flashing projectable power and on-base ability.
53		Tyler Whitaker	OF	HOU	19	HS	—	60	$1,500,000	50	X	2025
A double-plus runner with off-the-charts athleticism and plenty of projection remaining, Whitaker has an unrefined game with swing-and-miss concerns.
54	*	Ky Bush	LHP	LAA	22	4YR	—	46	$1,750,000	45	H	2024
An athletic lefthander from the college ranks, Bush's four-pitch mix is led by a mid-90s fastball with heavy ride and above-average command.
55	*	Daylen Lile	OF	WAS	19	HS	—	62	$1,750,000	45	X	2025
A born hitter with a track record of performance on the prep circuit, Lile faces questions around his power and overall impact.
56	*	Adrian Del Castillo	C	ARI	22	4YR	—	25	$1,000,000	45	H	2024
A hit-over-power, bat-first catcher, Del Castillo needs to show he can translate his raw power to games.
57	*	Alex Binelas	3B	BOS	22	4YR	—	77	$700,000	45	H	2024
A prodigious slugger at Louisville, Binelas produced strong numbers in pro ball before the Brewers traded him to the Red Sox this offseason.
58		Christian Franklin	OF	CHC	22	4YR	—	57	$425,000	—	—	2024
A tooled-up center fielder with plus power and major questions around his feel to hit, Franklin is a high-upside college hitter who could break out in 2022.
59	*	Maddux Bruns	LHP	LAD	19	HS	—	48	$2,200,000	55	X	2025
The unrefined lefthander from the prep ranks has a plus fastball that already sits 93-95 mph and has a trio of secondaries for the Dodgers to develop.
60	*	Cody Morissette	SS	MIA	22	4YR	—	45	$1,400,000	45	H	2024
Collegiate star who formed a formidable duo at Boston College with Sal Frelick has a sweet lefthanded swing with projectable power.
61	#	Noah Miller	SS	MIN	19	HS	—	74	$1,700,000	55	X	2025
Younger brother of the Guardians' Owen Miller, Noah is a standout defender with raw offensive skills and room for development at the plate.
62		Denzel Clarke	OF	OAK	22	4YR	—	133	$700,000	50	X	2024
The 6-foot-5, 220-pound Clarke has some of the best power potential in this year’s class. He's an improving talent who blossomed in 2021.
63	*	Andrew Abbott	LHP	CIN	23	4YR	—	67	$1,300,000	45	H	2024
The crafty lefthander has advanced sequencing and feel for spin. Abbott jumped from the Virginia bullpen to the rotation in 2021 and performed.
64	*	Doug Nikhazy	LHP	CLE	22	4YR	—	76	$1,200,000	45	H	2024
The ace of the Ole Miss staff in 2021, Nikhazy is an advanced strike-thrower with projection who Cleveland could refine.
65		Ryan Bliss	SS	ARI	22	4YR	—	97	$1,250,000	45	H	2024
Bliss is a college performer who packs average or better game power despite his undersized frame. He is a max-effort player with well-rounded tools.
66	#	Peyton Wilson	2B	KC	22	4YR	—	78	$1,000,000	—	—	2024
A switch-hitter with advanced strike-zone awareness, Wilson's explosive hands should allow him to be an average hitter from both sides.
67		Sean Burke	RHP	CWS	22	4YR	—	53	$900,000	45	H	2024
The athletic righthander has a plus mid-90s fastball that was up to 97 mph with plus analytical traits this summer in Low-A.
68	#	Tyler McDonough	2B	BOS	23	4YR	—	128	$828,600	45	H	2024
Elite plate approach and versatility give McDonough super-utility upside, with the ability to impact the game in a variety of ways.
69		Javier Osorio	SS	DET	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Osorio has strong, quick wrists that help him whip the barrel through the zone with ferocity, showing the tools to be a power-hitting infielder.
70		Diego Benitez	SS	ATL	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Likely a third baseman in pro ball, Benitez is one of the more advanced international hitters. He has a smooth swing with good bat speed, contact skills and power potential.
71		Hunter Goodman	C	COL	22	4YR	—	63	$600,000	—	—	2024
Double-plus raw power from a catcher at Coors Field is a dynasty dream, but his significant strikeout woes remain an issue.
72	#	Jonathan Mejia	SS	STL	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
An offensive-minded infielder, Mejia sticks out for his bat speed and ability to drive the ball with authority from both sides of the plate.
73	*	Jordan Viars	OF	PHI	18	HS	—	405	$747,500	50	X	2025
An early pro breakout in a very small sample size, Viars teased contact, power and approach. Is the early pro performance a mirage?
74	*	Yendry Rojas	INF/OF	SD	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Rojas is one of the top pure hitters in this year's international class, showing a mature approach for his age with a knack for barreling balls in games.
75		Peter Heubeck	RHP	LAD	19	HS	—	105	$1,270,000	50	X	2025
Up to 94 mph this summer with a high-spin, heavy ride four-seam fastball and a pair of projectable secondaries led by a 12-6 curveball.
76		Spencer Schwellenbach	RHP	ATL	22	4YR	—	51	$1,000,000	50	X	2024
Two-way player at Nebraska who had Tommy John this summer. A pitching prospect long-term with a fastball that touched triple digits this spring.
77	#	Reed Trimble	OF	BAL	22	4YR	—	104	$800,000	45	H	2024
Super athletic outfielder with double-plus speed and a leadoff hitter's skill set. Some questions around his impact despite sneaky raw power.
78	#	Edwin Arroyo	SS	SEA	18	HS	—	72	$1,650,000	50	X	2025
Glove-first middle infielder who impressed with surprising offensive prowess this summer, limited power upside.
79		Dylan Smith	RHP	DET	22	4YR	—	56	$1,120,000	45	H	2024
Athletic righty with a lean frame trending in the right direction from a strength standpoint, Smith has a four-pitch mix and a fast arm.
80		Ryan Reckley	SS	SF	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
This year's top talent from the Bahamas, Reckley is a smooth athlete with plus speed and an offensive skill set that could make him a tablesetter at the top of a lineup.
81		Jose Torres	SS	CIN	22	4YR	—	92	$622,500	50	H	2024
Tooled-up middle infielder who was a standout defender at NC State, Torres has projectable offensive tools, but is yet to put it all together.
82		Tommy Mace	RHP	CLE	23	4YR	—	65	$1,100,000	45	H	2023
Highly-decorated college starter with limited upside, but the opportunity to develop under Cleveland's pitching dev make him more interesting.
83		Jaden Hill	RHP	COL	22	4YR	—	24	$1,690,000	55	X	2024
A first-round talent who fell due to a poorly timed elbow injury that resulted in Tommy John surgery. Possible plus fastball and changeup combo.
84		Dominic Hamel	RHP	NYM	23	4YR	—	152	$755,300	45	H	2023
Standout pitch shape plus feel for the zone make Hamel a sleeper among the college starter's in this FYPD; a high-upside late round lotto ticket.
85	*	Ricky Tiedemann	LHP	TOR	19	JC	—	90	$644,800	50	X	2025
Armed with a plus changeup and a deceptive, low lefthanded slot, Tiedemann's increased physicality brought with it a jump in stuff.
86	*	William Bergolla Jr.	SS	PHI	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Bergolla's quickness stands out in the field and at the plate. He might never be a power threat, but he has a high-contact bat from the left side.
87		Griff McGarry	RHP	PHI	23	4YR	—	311	$322,500	50	X	2024
The best stuff in the class with some of the worst command, McGarry has the stuff to be a big league starter but lacks the required feel for the zone.
88		Yasser Mercedes	OF	MIN	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
Mercedes is one of the top international power-speed threats, with some swing-and-miss risk but big athleticism, tools and physical upside.
89		Carlos Pacheco	OF	OAK	17	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2027
A speedy, athletic center fielder, Pacheco has the bat-to-ball skills and strike-zone discipline that could make him a high OBP threat.
90	*	Robert Gasser	LHP	SD	23	4YR	—	64	$884,200	45	H	2023
Reworked his body during the 2020 shutdown and emerged with increased velocity, an improved slider and above-average command.
91	*	Steven Hajjar	LHP	MIN	22	4YR	—	61	$1,130,000	45	H	2024
Polished lefty strike-thrower with feel for a four-pitch mix, Hajjar's fastball features plus ride, with projectable velocity in his 6-foot-5 frame.
92		Austin Love	RHP	STL	23	4YR	—	99	$600,000	45	H	2023
Love spent two years in the UNC bullpen before making the jump to the rotation; he features a low-90s fastball, mid-80s slider and a changeup.
93	*	Brock Selvidge	LHP	NYY	19	HS	—	142	$1,500,000	50	X	2025
The prep lefty has a projectable four-pitch mix, led by an above-average curveball and a fastball that's been up to 95 mph.
94		Calvin Ziegler	RHP	NYM	19	HS	—	272	$910,000	50	X	2025
Canadian high school righty with a plus fastball that's been up to 97 mph and an above-average breaking ball.
95		Mat Nelson	C	CIN	23	4YR	—	50	$2,100,000	50	H	2024
A power-hitting catcher with good defensive skills, Nelson may be relegated to a backup role long-term because of contact issues.
96	*	Jordan McCants	SS	MIA	20	HS	—	89	$800,000	50	X	2025
An extremely athletic shortstop with plus speed, above-average defense at short and strong contact skills, McCants faces questions around power projection.
97	*	Nathan Hickey	C	BOS	22	4YR	—	132	$1,000,000	45	H	2024
Hickey is a slugging catcher with huge raw power but also many questions about his ability to stick behind the plate.
98	#	TJ White	OF	WAS	18	HS	—	362	$400,000	—	—	2025
A switch-hitter with plus raw power, White was impressive in his debut, hitting .283/.356/.547 with four home runs in 15 games.
99		John Rhodes	OF	BAL	21	4YR	—	173	$1,380,000	45	H	2024
Rhodes has a short, quick swing with a pull-side approach and above-average raw power. He faces questions around his feel to hit and ultimate power upside.
100	*	Oscar Colas	OF	CWS	23	IFA	—	—	—	—	—	2023
Likely a left fielder or first baseman, Colas will have to hit a ton—and quickly, since he's already 23—but he does have big raw power.