Analyzing Our 2022 Top 100 Rankings Movement

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When we upped the frequency of our in-season Top 100 and Team Top 30 updates, we did so to try to ensure that our subscribers continue to get the best, most-up-to-date and most insightful prospect rankings available.

But that does lead to a worthwhile question. By updating our Top 100 monthly and our Top 30s three times during the season, are we increasing the amount of insights we provide, or are we adding noise by shuffling players up and down the list based on smallish samples?

To get an idea of that, we wanted to study how we moved players up, down or on or off the list in 2022. We’re showing our work, so you can make your own decisions as to how useful our in-season movement was.

So here are our Top 100 Prospect lists from January 2022, May 2022, June 2022, July 2022 and August 2022. We have noted how many spots up or down a player moved in each update, and color coded moves of 10 spots or more up or down with green (for moves up) and red (for moves down).

Here’s a complete look at all 161 players who ranked on the Top 100 Prospects list at some point in 2022.

Player	JAN	+-	MAY	+-	JUN	+-	JUL	+-	AUG
Adley Rutschman	1	0	1	0	1		Grad.		Grad.
Julio Rodriguez	2	0	2		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Bobby Witt Jr.	3	0	3		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Riley Greene	4	0	4	2	2	1	1		Grad.
Spencer Torkelson	5	0	5		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Grayson Rodriguez	6	0	6	3	3	-1	4	0	4
Gabriel Moreno	7	0	7	2	5	2	3	0	3
Shane Baz	8	0	8	2	6	4	2	-13	15
CJ Abrams	9	0	9	1	8	-5	13	2	11
Anthony Volpe	10	0	10	1	9	-7	16	6	10
Keibert Ruiz	11		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
George Kirby	12	1	11	4	7		Grad.		Grad.
Francisco Alvarez	13	1	12	1	11	5	6	0	6
Oneil Cruz	14	1	13	-8	21	9	12		Grad.
Marcelo Mayer	15	1	14	2	12	-2	14	1	13
Brennen Davis	16	1	15	-25	40	-7	47	-4	51
Marco Luciano	17	1	16	2	14	-5	19	1	18
Noelvi Marte	18	1	17	-35	52	4	48	13	35
Triston Casas	19	1	18	-2	20	-9	29	-1	30
Corbin Carroll	20	1	19	15	4	-1	5	0	5
Tyler Soderstrom	21	-1	22	-1	23	-22	45	11	34
Zac Veen	22	-1	23	-6	29	-3	32	3	29
Diego Cartaya	23	-3	26	1	25	15	10	1	9
Jordan Walker	24	4	20	10	10	2	8	1	7
Jack Leiter	25	1	24	0	24	-13	37	-30	67
Cade Cavalli	26	-1	27	-11	38	-25	63	8	55
Reid Detmers	27	-1	28		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Jordan Lawlar	28	-1	29	16	13	2	11	-1	12
Robert Hassell III	29	4	25	3	22	-5	27	2	25
Nick Yorke	30	-3	33	1	32	-18	50	-51	Dropped
Alek Thomas	31	1	30	-4	34	Grad.		Grad.
Jose Barrero	32	-2	34	7	27	-43	70	Grad.
Nolan Gorman	33	2	31	12	19	Grad.		Grad.
Hunter Greene	34	-1	35	7	28	Grad.		Grad.
Nick Lodolo	35	-1	36		??		23	3	20
Aaron Ashby	36		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Seiya Suzuki	37	5	32		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Bobby Miller	38	1	37	7	30	4	26	2	24
Josh Jung	39	1	38	-3	41	2	39	-5	44
Brett Baty	40	1	39	0	39	8	31	3	28
Miguel Vargas	41	1	40	9	31	1	30	3	27
Henry Davis	42	1	41	8	33	-11	44	-42	86
MJ Melendez	43	-3	46	3	43		Grad.		Grad.
Nick Pratto	44	-3	47	-7	54	-6	60	-10	70
Josh Lowe	45	-3	48	-5	53	-8	61		Grad.
Matt Brash	46	-3	49	-25	74	3	71		Grad.
Michael Harris	47	5	42	24	18		Grad.		Grad.
Austin Martin	48	-38	86	-15	Dropped
Eury Perez	49	6	43	27	16	7	9	1	8
Nick Gonzales	50	0	50	-17	67	-34	Dropped
Matthew Liberatore	51	0	51	7	44	8	36	-43	79
Taj Bradley	52	0	52	7	45	27	18	2	16
Daniel Espino	53	32	21	4	17	2	15	-2	17
Mick Abel	54	1	53	-3	56	-10	66	0	66
D.L. Hall	55	1	54	3	51	0	51	-10	61
Luis Campusano	56	1	55	0	55	-7	62	-3	65
Shea Langeliers	57	1	56	-13	69	-16	85	1	84
Oswald Peraza	58	1	57	-9	66	-15	81	0	81
Vidal Brujan	59	1	58	-5	63		Grad.		Grad.
Gunnar Henderson	60	1	59	23	36	29	7	6	1
Brady House	61	1	60	-4	64	-37	Dropped
Kahlil Watson	62	1	61	-26	87	-14	Dropped
Cole Winn	63	1	62	-39	Dropped
Nate Pearson	64	-37	Dropped
Tyler Freeman	65	2	63	-12	75	Dropped
Brayan Rocchio	66	2	64	-12	76	-15	91	15	76
Bryson Stott	67	2	65	-12	77		Grad.		Grad.
George Valera	68	2	66	-6	72	31	41	-4	45
Edward Cabrera	69	1	68	9	59	3	56	-2	58
Korey Lee	70	-6	76	-25	Dropped
Joey Bart	71		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Jeremy Peña	72	3	69		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Luis Matos	73	3	70	-16	86	-15	Dropped
Max Meyer	74	30	44	7	37	12	25	-7	32
Orelvis Martinez	75	4	71	-18	89	-12	Dropped
Michael Busch	76	4	72	14	58	18	40	-10	50
Elly De La Cruz	77	4	73	11	62	41	21	-1	22
Liover Peguero	78	4	74	6	68	0	68	-14	82
Jackson Jobe	79	2	77	-6	83	5	78	4	74
Roansy Contreras	80	2	78	28	50		Grad.		Grad.
Cristian Hernandez	81	2	79	-5	84	5	79	-22	Dropped
Royce Lewis	82	7	75	26	49	-10	59	-1	60
Brandon Williamson	83	3	80	-21	Dropped
Cristian Pache	84		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Jordan Balazovic	85	-13	98	-3	Dropped
Joe Ryan	86		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Jasson Dominguez	87	-14	Dropped
Quinn Priester	88	7	81	1	80	5	75	6	69
Geraldo Perdomo	89	7	82		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Jose Miranda	90	7	83		Grad.		Grad.		Grad.
Jarren Duran	91	7	84	-16	100		Grad.		Grad.
Ronny Mauricio	92	7	85	0	85	-16	Dropped
Blake Walston	93	6	87	-14	Dropped	5	96	-5	Dropped
Heliot Ramos	94	6	88	-13	Dropped
Kyle Harrison	95	28	67	21	46	24	22	3	19
Ryne Nelson	96	-5	Dropped
Curtis Mead	97	8	89	18	71	43	28	2	26
Colton Cowser	98	-3	Dropped						97
Ryan Pepiot	99	9	90	12	78	23	55	1	54
Gabriel Arias	100	9	91	12	79	-22	Dropped
Elehuris Montero						1	100	0	100
Jace Jung									99
Jordan Westburg						2	99	1	98
Logan Allen						3	98	2	96
Wilmer Flores						6	95	0	95
Alex Ramirez						8	93	-1	94
Ivan Herrera						9	92	-1	93
Brandon Pfaadt						11	90	-2	92
Jackson Merrill						12	89	-2	91
Luisangel Acuna								11	90
Owen White						13	88	-1	89
Emmanuel Rodriguez						14	87	-1	88
Ceddanne Rafaela						15	86	-1	87
Logan O’Hoppe						7	94	9	85
Carson Williams				11	90	8	82	-1	83
Andy Pages		9	92	1	91	17	74	-6	80
Vaughn Grissom									78
Jonathan Aranda									77
Sal Frelick		1	100	7	93	-8	Dropped	26	75
Gordon Graceffo						24	77	4	73
Alec Burleson						25	76	4	72
Jacob Berry									71
Cam Collier									68
Bo Naylor				4	97	33	64	0	64
Tink Hence						4	97	34	63
Masyn Winn						34	67	5	62
Adael Amador				28	73	15	58	-1	59
Ezequiel Duran				36	65	13	52	-5	57
Gavin Stone				34	67	44	57	1	56
Kevin Parada									53
Elijah Green									52
Pete Crow-Armstrong		6	95	48	47	13	34	-15	49
Vinnie Pasquantino				41	60	14	46	-2	48
Edwin Arroyo						52	49	2	47
Termarr Johnson									46
Evan Carter				40	61	18	43	0	43
Hunter Brown				6	95	41	54	12	42
Jackson Holliday									41
Brooks Lee									40
James Wood						36	65	26	39
Colson Montgomery						48	53	15	38
Gavin Williams				31	70	28	42	5	37
Drew Romo				76	35	2	33	-3	36
Andrew Painter		5	96	39	57	19	38	5	33
Ricky Tiedemann				13	88	53	35	4	31
Brayan Bello		4	97	49	48	24	24	1	23
Druw Jones									21
Ezequiel Tovar				75	26	9	17	3	14
Jackson Chourio				69	42	22	20	18	2
Josh Winder				19	82	13	69		Grad.
Joey Wiemer				7	94	22	72	-29	Dropped
Yosver Zulueta						28	73	-28	Dropped
Jhoan Duran						21	80		Grad.
Xavier Edwards							83	-18	Dropped
Caleb Kilian				2	99	15	84	-17	Dropped
MacKenzie Gore		56	45	30	15		Grad.		Grad.
Brice Turang		7	94	13	81	-20	Dropped
Matt McLain		2	99	7	92	-9	Dropped
Steven Kwan		8	93	-3	96		Grad.		Grad.
Spencer Strider				3	98		Grad.		Grad.

May Movers

May was our most modest adjustment, as we had few big moves up or down the list.

Big Moves Up: Daniel Espino (+32), Max Meyer (+30), Kyle Harrison (+28), MacKenzie Gore (+56)

Big Moves Down: Austin Martin (-38), Nate Pearson (-37), Jordan Balazovic (-13), Jasson Dominguez (-14).

How Did We Do? Meyer and Espino both eventually were sidelined with injuries, but they have stayed pretty high on our Top 100 despite their injuries because of their talent. Harrison also has stuck around the top 50 ever since, so that seems so far like a solid move up. Gore was moved back on the Top 100 after a strong start. He served as a key part of the Juan Soto trade later in 2022, and is a member of the Nationals rotation this year.

As far as the moves down, all four of the prospects listed soon moved off the Top 100. Only Dominguez has returned so far. We may have been a tad hasty with Dominguez, who did rally to have a solid season, but the other three were all drops we’d definitely do again.

June Jumps

Big Jumps: Corbin Carroll (+15), Jordan Walker (+10), Jordan Lawlar (+16), Nolan Gorman (+12), Michael Harris (+24), Eury Perez (+27), Gunnar Henderson (+23), Michael Busch (+14), Elly De La Cruz (+11), Roansy Contreras (+28), Royce Lewis (+26), Kyle Harrison (+21), Curtis Mead (+18), Ryan Pepiot (+12), Gabriel Arias (+12), Carson Williams (+11), Adael Amador (+28), Ezequiel Duran (+36), Pete Crow-Armstrong (+48), Vinnie Pasquantino (+41), Evan Carter (+40), Gavin Williams (+31), Drew Romo (+76), Andrew Painter (+39), Ricky Tiedemann (+13), Brayan Bello (+49), Ezequiel Tovar (+75), Jackson Chourio (+69), Josh Winder (+19), MacKenzie Gore (+30), Brice Turang (+13).

Big Drops: Cade Cavalli (-11), Brennen Davis (-25), Noelvi Marte (-35), Matt Brash (-25), Austin Martin (-15), Nick Gonzales (-17), Shea Langeliers (-13), Kahlil Watson (-26), Cole Winn (-39), Tyler Freeman (-12), Brayan Rocchio (-12), Bryson Stott (-12), Korey Lee (-25), Luis Matos (-16), Orelvis Martinez (-18), Brandon Williamson (-21), Jarren Duran (-16), Blake Walston (-14), Heliot Ramos (-13).

How Did We Do: This is why we comprehensively update our Top 100 every month in-season. If you paid attention to our June 2022 Top 100 update, you got a sneak peak of our 2023 January Top 100 Prospects list.

Some of the big climbers would graduate before 2023 (Gorman, Harris, Bello, Pasquantino), but the makings of the top of our initial 2023 Top 100 Prospects list are apparent here. The climbers included the No. 1 (Henderson), No. 2 (Carroll), No. 3 (Choruio), No. 4 (Walker), No. 5 (Painter), No. 7 (Perez), No. 8 (De La Cruz), No. 13 (Lawlar), No. 17 (Tovar), No. 20 (Williams) and No. 25 (Crow-Armstrong) prospects. There were another five climbers who slotted into the 26-50 range on the 2023 initial Top 100.

Chourio and Tovar both went from off of the list to inside the Top 50 in one jump. Roughly 10 months later, we have zero regrets. If you were reading Baseball America’s rankings, you got an early heads-up on young prospects with bright futures. At the time of this update, Chourio had less than a month in the full-season minors.

Some of the prospects we moved down did settle down and stick around for the rest of the year. After moving Marte significantly down this month, he didn’t move down again and moved up slightly over the rest of the season. But this also was a useful assessment of Gonzales, Watson, Martin, Lee and Ramos’ struggles. All would soon move off of the Top 100 and none have as of yet returned.

If we had to do it over again, Romo’s jump may have been a little much. He’s still a Top 100 Prospect now, but this jump meant we had to course correct a little in future updates.

I cannot find where we ranked Nick Lodolo in our June update. I believe this is a data entry issue, but if not, dropping him out completely from our May rankings before moving him up to 23 in our July rankings would be an issue. I feel reasonably confident that this was not actually the case.

July Jumbles

Moves Up: Diego Cartaya (+15), Taj Bradley (+27), Gunnar Henderson (+29), George Valera (+31), Max Meyer (+12), Michael Busch (+18), Elly De La Cruz (+41), Kyle Harrison (+24), Curtis Mead (+43), Ryan Pepiot (+23), Brandon Pfaadt (+11), Jackson Merrill (+12), Owen White (+13), Emmanuel Rodriguez (+14), Ceddanne Rafaela (+15), Andy Pages (+17), Gordon Graceffo (+24), Alec Burleson (+25), Bo Naylor (+33), Adael Amador (+15), Ezequiel Duran (+13), Gavin Stone (+44), Pete Crow-Armstrong (+13), Vinnie Pasquantino (+14), Edwin Arroyo (+52), Evan Carter (+18), Hunter Brown (+41), Colson Montgomery (+48), Gavin Williams (+28), Andrew Painter (+19), Ricky Tiedemann (+53), Brayan Bello (+24), Jackson Chourio (+22), Josh Winder (+13), Joey Wiemer (+22), Yosver Zulueta (+28), Jhoan Duran (+21), Caleb Kilian (+15), James Wood (+36), Masyn Winn (+34). 

Moves Down: Tyler Soderstrom (-22), Jack Leiter (-13), Nick Yorke (-18), Jose Barrero (-43), Henry Davis (-11), Nick Gonzales (-34), Mick Abel (-10), Shea Langeliers (-16), Oswald Peraza (-15), Brady House (-37), Kahlil Watson (-14) Brayan Rocchio (-15), Luis Matos (-15), Orelvis Martinez (-12), Royce Lewis (-10), Ronny Mauricio (-16), Gabriel Arias (-22), Brice Turang (-20).

How Did We Do: This was another month of major movement, and most of it looks quite good with hindsight. Henderson, Cartaya, Bradley, De La Cruz, Mead, Merrill, Brown, Montgomery, Williams, Painter, Tiedemann and Chourio were all big leaps by prospects who kept climbing for our 2023 Top 100.

On the other end of the spectrum, the drops of House, Watson, Leiter and Yorke were strong hints that they wouldn’t crack our preseason Top 100 list in 2023.

Not every move looks as good in hindsight. Turang has hovered at the cusp of the Top 100 ever since (he’s back on now, but wasn’t in January). Soderstrom’s movement wasn’t an indicator of anything and Zulueta and Kilian’s moves up would soon be followed by equivalent moves down.

August Adjustments

Moves Up: Noelvi Marte (+13), Tyler Soderstrom (+11), Brayan Rocchio (+15), Luisangel Acuna (+11), Sal Frelick (+26), Tink Hence (+34), Hunter Brown (+12), James Wood (+26), Colson Montgomery (+15), Jackson Chourio (+18). 

Moves Down: Shane Baz (-13), Jack Leiter (-30), Nick Yorke (-51), Henry Davis (-42), Nick Pratto (-10), Matthew Liberatore (-43), D.L. Hall (-10), Michael Busch (-10), Liover Peguero (-14), Cristian Hernandez (-22), Pete Crow-Armstrong (-15), Joey Wiemer (-29), Yosver Zulueta (-28), Xavier Edwards (-18), Caleb Kilian (-17).

How Did We Do: There were less big moves in August, as most of the adjustments were built around adding 2022 draftees to the Top 100, but there were a few significant changes to note. James Wood and Tink Hence’s big climbs were signs of more to come. Among the move downs, Leiter, Yorke and Hernandez were all steps toward dropping off the list, but for Liberatore and Crow-Armstrong they were indicative of nothing when you look to our January 2023 Top 100.

Here are some examples of where we may have been a little hasty with our moves or we got some noise in our data. Wiemer, Zulueta, Edwards and Kilian all dropped back off after jumping on the previous month. The addition of 2022 draftees for the first time didn’t help their chances of sticking around.

Final Summary

Overall, there seems to be plenty of value to updating monthly. While there is a little more noise that leads to some prospects moving up one month, down the next and up the following month, that’s actually quite limited, and the prospects who made big jumps, or big drops, were generally the ones we should have been highlighting for our readers.

We want to make sure that Baseball America readers are getting the best rankings and reports, updated more quickly and more accurately than anywhere else. In looking at our Top 100 movement, you have all the information you need to judge for yourself if we’re living up to that goal.