AL Central 2024 Preview: Predictions, Player Grades & More
Image credit: Bobby Witt Jr. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
As part of Baseball America’s season preview, Zach Buchanan asked scouts and executives to weigh in on a number of topics. Industry sources were granted anonymity to speak freely. Quotes are lightly edited for clarity. You can also find Baseball America staffers’ picks and grades for every AL Central lineup below.
MLB Predictions 2024: Baseball America’s Ultimate Season Preview
Baseball America is getting fans ready for the start of the 2024 MLB season.
WHAT SCOUTS AND EXECUTIVES ARE SAYING
BIGGEST SURPRISE
“I think the Twins will have the division wrapped up by the all-star break. They have a lot of good stuff coming and a lot of good players as it is. They’re pretty deep and they’re sharp. They’ve got a chance to run roughshod over that division.”
“I don’t really consider the Royals to be a ‘good’ team, and I think their lineup is weak, but it appears they hit a home run by trading for Cole Ragans, they signed a couple viable starters in Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, and the division is really bad. I think they’ll win a lot more games than expected.”
MOST DISAPPOINTING OFFSEASON
“The Guardians play in a division that’s winnable. They’ve got plenty of young talent to go get what you need to go get. They’re always going to have financial limitations, but it was just more of the same.”
BREAKOUT HITTER
“Riley Greene showed flashes of it last year, but still hasn’t put it together for a full season due to injuries. I love the bat speed and contact quality and believe it is only a matter of time before he is one of the game’s next young stars.”
BASEBALL AMERICA PREDICTIONS
TOP PLAYER: Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Royals
Witt shored up a lot of the areas he needed to address last season—defensive reliability, chase rate, impact frequency—and even made strides in terms of production versus righthanders in the second half. He came within one stolen base of a 30-50 season in 2023 and should be sufficiently motivated this year to become the second 40-40 shortstop in history. Alex Rodriguez got there first in 1998. All signs point to MVP upside for Witt. If he finishes top three this year, then the Royals add a PPI draft pick in 2025.
TOP PITCHER: Pablo Lopez, RHP, Twins
Growing up in Venezuela, Lopez idolized Johan Santana, so it’s only fitting that he assumes the role of Twins ace and is the most dominant pitcher in franchise history since Santana. Last season, Lopez remained healthy and pushed his strikeout total above 200 for the first time. If his innings total eclipses 200 this year, then a top-three finish for the Cy Young Award will follow.
TOP ROOKIE: Colt Keith, 2B, Tigers
Keith hit the ball hard and made good swing decisions as a 22-year-old at Triple-A last season. He’s a fringy defender, but it might not matter much once he settles into second base, not when he’s a potential plus hitter with a chance to hit 25 homers a year. Keith is a darkhorse Rookie of the Year candidate and will have plenty of runway after signing a six-year extension in January.
SOPHOMORE BREAKOUT: Royce Lewis, 3B, Twins
No. 1 overall draft pick. Two seasons lost to a torn ACL in his right knee. A rookie record four grand slams in 2023. Lewis has experienced the highs and lows of pro ball. What he hasn’t experienced is a full, healthy MLB season. If that happens in 2024, then look out. Lewis is capable of big things at the plate, including aesthetically pleasing .300-30-100 seasons and down-ballot MVP consideration.
UNDERSTATED STAR: Jose Ramirez, 3B, Guardians
Ramirez has been a fixture in Cleveland since 2016 and is quietly building a case for Cooperstown. Not many third basemen in history have accumulated more WAR through age 30 than Ramirez. The list includes seven Hall of Famers, a probable future Hall of Famer in Manny Machado and also perennial all-stars Buddy Bell, Evan Longoria and David Wright, who all faded in their 30s. With another four to six quality seasons, Ramirez will put himself firmly in the HOF column.
BOUNCEBACK: Carlos Correa, SS, Twins
Fresh off signing a six-year, $200 million contract, Correa turned in his worst full season for the Twins in 2023. This seems aberrational for a 29-year-old who was valued at more than $300 million in offers by the Giants and Mets just a year earlier. Correa did not exactly prove his doubters wrong last season when he was slowed with plantar fasciitis, but he modified his offseason routine heading into 2024 with an eye toward being more explosive.
BEST OF THE DIVISION
C Bo Naylor CLE
1B Spencer Torkelson DET
2B Andres Gimenez CLE
3B Jose Ramirez CLE
SS Bobby Witt Jr. KC
LF Steven Kwan CLE
CF Luis Robert Jr. CWS
RF Riley Greene DET
DH Royce Lewis MIN
SP Pablo Lopez MIN
SP Tarik Skubal DET
SP Shane Bieber CLE
SP Dylan Cease CWS
SP Tanner Bibee CLE
SP Cole Ragans KC
CL Emmanuel Clase CLE
PREDICTED STANDINGS
1. Twins
2. Guardians
3. Tigers
4. Royals
5. White Sox
LINEUPS & GRADES
Each player’s BA Grade reflects his current ability level, not what he was at his peak or what he projects to be in the future. Grades were determined by JJ Cooper, Matt Eddy, Geoff Pontes and Dylan White.
MINNESOTA TWINS
| Twins | Overall BA Grade: 60 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| 2B | Edouard Julien | 50 |
| CF | Byron Buxton | 55 |
| 3B | Royce Lewis | 60 |
| SS | Carlos Correa | 55 |
| RF | Max Kepler | 50 |
| 1B | Carlos Santana | 45 |
| LF | Matt Wallner | 45 |
| C | Ryan Jeffers | 45 |
| DH | Alex Kirilloff | 45 |
ON DECK: The Twins graduated three lineup regulars last year: Julien, Lewis and Wallner. Now, 2022 first-rounder Brooks Lee could be next.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Pablo Lopez | 70 |
| SP | Joe Ryan | 55 |
| SP | Bailey Ober | 55 |
| SP | Chris Paddack | 45 |
| SP | Louie Varland | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Jhoan Duran | 55 |
| RP | Griffin Jax | 45 |
| RP | Brock Stewart | 45 |
WARMING UP: The next Twins’ wave of young pitchers includes David Festa, Matt Canterino and Simeon Woods Richardson.
BOLD PREDICTION: Royce Lewis will have a monster first half and make his first all-star team on his way to a 35-homer season for the high-scoring Twins.
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
| Guardians | Overall BA Grade: 50 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| LF | Steven Kwan | 55 |
| 2B | Andres Gimenez | 55 |
| 3B | Jose Ramirez | 75 |
| DH | Josh Naylor | 50 |
| RF | Ramon Laureano | 40 |
| C | Bo Naylor | 50 |
| 1B | Kyle Manzardo | 45 |
| SS | Gabriel Arias | 45 |
| CF | Myles Straw | 40 |
ON DECK: A raft of middle infielders includes Brayan Rocchio, Angel Martinez and Juan Brito. Outfielder Chase DeLauter could add a big bat.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Shane Bieber | 55 |
| SP | Triston McKenzie | 55 |
| SP | Tanner Bibee | 60 |
| SP | Logan Allen | 50 |
| SP | Gavin Williams | 55 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Emmanuel Clase | 55 |
| RP | Scott Barlow | 45 |
| RP | Sam Hentges | 45 |
WARMING UP: Lefthander Joey Cantillo has a live arm he showed off at the Futures Game. Can he throw enough strikes to factor?
BOLD PREDICTION: Andres Gimenez was one of the best players in MLB in 2022. Still just 25 years old, he will rebound to form and earn his second all-star appearance.
DETROIT TIGERS
| Tigers | Overall BA Grade: 40 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CF | Parker Meadows | 45 |
| RF | Riley Greene | 55 |
| 1B | Spencer Torkelson | 50 |
| DH | Kerry Carpenter | 50 |
| LF | Mark Canha | 45 |
| 2B | Colt Keith | 50 |
| SS | Javier Baez | 45 |
| 3B | Gio Urshela | 45 |
| C | Jake Rogers | 45 |
ON DECK: Justyn-Henry Malloy should get some run in left field. Jace Jung—or Keith—could be the answer at third base in the second half.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Tarik Skubal | 65 |
| SP | Jack Flaherty | 50 |
| SP | Kenta Maeda | 50 |
| SP | Matt Manning | 45 |
| SP | Reese Olson | 45 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Alex Lange | 45 |
| RP | Jason Foley | 45 |
| RP | Shelby Miller | 45 |
WARMING UP: Alex Faedo, drafted in the first round in 2017, missed a ton of bats in spring training and could fill a key role on the pitching staff.
BOLD PREDICTION: Tarik Skubal flashed ace potential in the second half last season. If he is healthy for all of 2024, he is a darkhorse candidate to win the Cy Young Award.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
| Royals | Overall BA Grade: 40 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| 3B | Maikel Garcia | 45 |
| SS | Bobby Witt Jr. | 70 |
| 1B | Vinnie Pasquantino | 55 |
| C | Salvador Perez | 45 |
| LF | MJ Melendez | 45 |
| RF | Hunter Renfroe | 45 |
| 2B | Michael Massey | 45 |
| DH | Nelson Velazquez | 40 |
| CF | Kyle Isbel | 40 |
ON DECK: Nick Loftin should see time as a multi-position player, while center fielder Drew Waters could work his way into the outfield mix.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Cole Ragans | 60 |
| SP | Seth Lugo | 55 |
| SP | Michael Wacha | 50 |
| SP | Brady Singer | 45 |
| SP | Jordan Lyles | 40 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | James McArthur | 45 |
| RP | Will Smith | 45 |
| RP | John McMillon | 45 |
WARMING UP: Mason Barnett was the Royals’ minor league pitcher of the year and could be on call for spot starts this season.
BOLD PREDICTION: Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha joining Cole Ragans in the rotation will bring the team’s ERA closer to MLB average, sharply improving their wins totals.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
| White Sox | Overall BA Grade: 30 | |
| LINEUP | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| LF | Andrew Benintendi | 45 |
| 3B | Yoan Moncada | 50 |
| CF | Luis Robert Jr. | 60 |
| DH | Eloy Jimenez | 50 |
| 1B | Andrew Vaughn | 45 |
| RF | Dominic Fletcher | 40 |
| SS | Paul DeJong | 40 |
| 2B | Nicky Lopez | 40 |
| C | Martin Maldonado | 40 |
ON DECK: Shortstop and top prospect Colson Montgomery is the big attraction, but outfielders Oscar Colas and Zach DeLoach are on standby.
| ROTATION | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| SP | Erick Fedde | 50 |
| SP | Michael Kopech | 45 |
| SP | Michael Soroka | 45 |
| SP | Chris Flexen | 40 |
| SP | Garrett Crochet | 40 |
| TOP RELIEVERS | ||
| Pos | Player | BA Grade |
| CL | Steven Wilson | 45 |
| CL | John Brebbia | 45 |
| RP | Deivi Garcia | 40 |
WARMING UP: Trade pickups Drew Thorpe, Nick Nastrini and Jake Eder could be rotation options. Jairo Iriarte and Prelander Berroa could relieve.
BOLD PREDICTION: Third baseman Yoan Moncada’s bat has gone cold since 2021. Bryan Ramos waits in the wings and has the offensive chops to take over in the second half.
