2022 Top 100 Prospects Chat

Baseball America staffers answered your Top 100 Prospects questions throughout the day, starting at 11 a.m. ET.

Molly (New Jersey):

 Thanks everyone for the chat! Who are some prospects not currently on the list that you could see rocketing up it this year? Similar to a Cavalli or Moreno ascension last season

Geoff Pontes: Hi Molly! Thanks for joining us today. A few names that came up in conversations with contacts that just missed are the Brewers Sal Frelick, the Dodgers Andy Pages, the Reds Matt McLain, and the Orioles Coby Mayo. I’m not sure any have that sort of climb in 2022 but they’re early enough in their careers that a jump could happen. – Geoff

Frederick (Boston):

 It’s surprising to see Jordan Groshans fall from the top half of the list last season to off it this season, especially given that he had a pretty decent year at an advanced level. Are there new reports and feeling about his future now around the league? Thanks!

Geoff Pontes: Thanks for the question Frederick! Groshans just missed the list and was discussed at the back end. There’s no question about his ability to hit, but there is some concern around the amount of power he’ll develop. He’s also likely headed for third and has dealt with injuries early on in his career. – Geoff

Taylor V. (Seattle, WA):

 Dustin Harris… Was he close/in consideration? Does he have the potential to breakout and shoot up the list this season if he keeps hitting?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Taylor, thanks for the question! Harris was in the group of 20 prospects just outside our top 100. Evaluators that saw him in 2021 are impressed by his ability to make contact and control the strike zone. His power hasn’t fully gelled yet in game, but we have positive feedback around his power projection. There were concerns around his positional value long term and some that see him as a full-time first baseman eventually. – Geoff

CJ Abrams (#9 on the list):

 More likely outcome for me: I am the #1 overall prospect going into next season or I debut and lose prospect eligibility this season?

Geoff Pontes: Hi CJ thanks for the question. I believe you’re more likely to end up the number one prospect, but I wouldn’t bet hard-earned money on either outcome. While it’s certainly possible that you could debut in 2022, the exhausting eligibility element would surprise me. – Geoff

Bernard (NJ):

 What teams have traded away the most current T100 prospects?

Geoff Pontes: Hello Bernard, and thanks for the great question! Taking a quick look it seems like a four way tie between the Dodgers (Keibert Ruiz and Oneil Cruz), the Rays (Matthew Liberatore and Joe Ryan), the Padres (Matt Brash and Gabriel Arias) and the Phillies (Sixto and Curtis Mead). There were 12 total prospects within the top 100 that have been traded before. – Geoff

Frederick (Boston):

 Thanks again for this great chat! Could you name some non-1st round FYPs that have a good chance at being prominent members of this list in the near future?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Frederick, sure! Three names that received votes during our process were James Triantos from the Cubs, James Wood from the Padres, and Zack Gelof from the Athletics. I’d personally stump for Triantos and Wood as the names outside the first round that could develop into prominent members of the list. That said, they’re very young prospects and strong seasons are needed from both to rise into the top 100 conversation. – Geoff

Taylor V. (Seattle, WA):

 Can Nate Pearson still be the best pitcher out of anyone on this list or has that upside faded? Thanks you!

Geoff Pontes: Hi Taylor and thanks for the question! I don’t think so, but he certainly has the upside to be a mid-rotation starter, maybe a touch better. Pitchers like Shane Baz, Grayson Rodriguez, George Kirby, even D.L. Hall or Daniel Espino may have a higher ceiling. That said, Pearson showed improvement during his time with the Blue Jays later in the 2021 season and I’m excited to see what he can do in 2022 with an expanded role. – Geoff

Molly (New Jersey):

 Do you have a handful of International teenagers (maybe from the current and last two signing periods) that you would peg to be on this list soon? Appreciate your thoughts!

Geoff Pontes: Hi Molly, thanks for the question and you’re in luck! I ran this by Ben Badler and he pointed to Cristian Santana (Tigers), Carlos Colmenarez (Rays), Víctor Acosta (Padres), Jackson Chourio (Brewers) all as players that he could see doing that. – Geoff

Frederick (Boston):

 Fun question for you, who would you rather build a team around for the next 10 years: This top 3, the 2020 top 3 (Franco, Adell, Robert), or the 2018 top 3 (Acuna, Ohtani, Vladdy)?

Geoff Pontes: Fun question, I would go with the 2018 group, but I don’t think that’s a reflection on this year’s top three. You have arguably one of the most special baseball players of the last however many decades and two perennial MVP candidates. – Geoff

Zach (Baltimore):

 Mayo and Kjerstad both seem like guys that can enter the top 100 with a good 2022 season. Is there a chance a healthy Carter Baumler does enough this season to warrant consideration?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Zach, thanks for your question. I agree with your point around Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad having a good shot to crack the top 100 with strong seasons. Baumler on the other hand would really have to set the world one fire – a la Eury Perez – to push his way into consideration. The expectation is he’ll likely begin his career in the GCL, and that really limits the amount of innings he’ll see. That’s not even factoring the injury and the time it takes to get back to 100%. – Geoff

Andrew (Alberta):

 Is there anyone in the Blue Jays system that you can see being the next one to climb into the top 100? Say by midseason 2022 or early 2023?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Andrew and thanks for your question! As mentioned earlier Jordan Groshans was really close to making the cut, and just with the mechanics of graduations I would anticipate he cracks the top 100 again. Thinking of other names and there’s no one that close. As their first round pick in 2021 Gunnar Hoglund is unlikely to pitch enough in 2022 to earn a spot, but I think mid-season 2023 he could very likely announce his presence in a big way if healthy. One sleeper I’ll throw out there is Leo Jimenez, the underlying data is good and he received strong feedback from scouts who saw him during the Arizona Fall League – Geoff

Jason (Chicago, IL):

 Which pitchers in the Top 100 have true #1 / #2 upside?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Jason and thanks for the question. There’s a few that come to mind but first and foremost Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz, and George Kirby. They all have a mix of stuff and command that puts them in a different tier. As far as stuff is concerned Daniel Espino, Eury Perez, and D.L. Hall all have top of the rotation stuff, but each has some question they will need to overcome in order to get there. – Geoff

Zach (Baltimore):

 If you had to place them right now, in what general range would the top 2022 draft prospects land? Would Druw and Termarr rank above Henry Davis? Do Lesko, Berry and Brock make it into the top 100?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Zach and thanks for the question! I bounced this one off of Carlos Collazo our draft writer for his thoughts. He thinks that Druw, Termarr, Elijah, Lesko, Lee, Jung, DeLauter, and Berry would all have compelling Top 100 cases. He would have Druw and Termarr above Davis himself, and he feels there is no reason Lesko won’t fit in the Abel and Jobe range maybe higher come this time next year. – Geoff

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, I’m taking the baton from Geoff here for the second leg of the chat. Let’s get started.

Molly (New Jersey):

 Last one for me, thank you so much! What is Gabriel Moreno’s offensive ceiling like? Is it more likely he is a great hitter FOR a catcher or that he’s a great hitter period?

Kyle Glaser: Our pleasure Molly, thanks for joining in. To use your phrasing, Gabriel Moreno has a chance to be a good hitter, period. You can find evaluators who make some sky-high predictions, such as .300 with 20 home runs, and even the “low” predictions have him as an above-average hitter with 15-20 home run pop. The one thing to keep an eye on is he really struggled with sliders down away during the tail end of the Fall League – pitchers made an adjustment and he struggled to adjust back. That’s something to watch for next year.

Casey (Maryland):

 Is there a scenario where Colton Cowser rises to the top half of this list if he continues his success from the end of the last season?

Kyle Glaser: Cowser certainly has some believers as a player who could rise into the top half of the list next season. It’s not universal, but there are some evaluators who really believe in his bat and think he could be an All-Star-caliber hitter.

Jason (Chicago, IL):

 Which hitters that are lower on the list or that missed this year’s top 100 have a chance to be in the 2023 top 25?

Kyle Glaser: Luis Matos is the main one that comes to mind.

Jeff (Idaho):

 Thanks for the chat! With the lockout, this Top 100 release and chat is great for us baseball-starved fans. Any players in the back half of this list that you anticipate making some big jumps in 2022? Also, will you be doing a “just missed” list as you’ve done in years past?

Kyle Glaser: Hey Jeff, our pleasure. We’re all hoping the lockout ends soon, but in the meantime we’ll have lots of stuff for you in the coming days and weeks in addition to today’s Top 100 release. I’m going to have a piece answering your first question that comes out tomorrow, and I believe our editor J.J. Cooper is putting together a just-missed list for tomorrow as well.

Jeff (Idaho):

 Looks like Drew Waters dropped off the list completely. Has his overall outlook changed to more of an average regular or 4th OF, or is it more just a matter of him matching tools to performance (and getting a better handle on his plate discipline)?

Kyle Glaser: Waters’ approach just never improved. An average regular is generally seen as his best-case scenario at this point, but unless he figures out an approach, even that’s going to be a stretch.

Ross (Boss):

 Who were the most divisive prospects on the list as it was being compiled?

Kyle Glaser: Austin Martin continues to be an extremely divisive prospect. If you like him, you see a mature hitter who makes contact, gets on-base and capably handled a difficult jump straight to Double-A in his pro debut. If you don’t like him, you see a light hitter who doesn’t have a position and needs to improve his power, arm and defense substantially to be even an average regular. There’s merit to both perspectives, and his jump to Triple-A next season will be instructive.

Jeff (Atlanta):

 How is Coby Mayo not in this top 100? You have 2020 Zac Veen , amd Mayos # are much better, am I missing something other then Veen was 1st rounder ? Not hating on Veen but stating facts

Kyle Glaser: Veen played a full season at Low-A. Mayo played in the complex leagues and 27 games of Low-A at the end of the season. The level of competition they faced is hugely different, and frankly not comparable.

Adam (USA):

 Does Brady house have top 10 prospect potential?

Kyle Glaser: There are still questions about how much contact House will consistently make at higher levels. That said, his performance in his pro debut was loud and lent some confidence to the notion that his pure hitting ability may be better than originally thought. If he continues on that track, it’s possible to see him becoming a top 10 overall prospect.

fishman (loanDepot Park):

 Is Ian Lewis a near top 100 prospect?

Kyle Glaser: No. Ian Lewis is an intriguing young player, but he’s not in the Top 100 discussion at this point.

Andrew (California):

 Which pitching prospects not in the Top 100 have a chance to pop big in 2022?

Kyle Glaser: Keep an eye on Hunter Brown and Landon Knack. Among high school picks, Andrew Painter is someone to watch.

Connor (Chicago, IL):

 What’s your thoughts on Owen Caissie and his chances of reaching the top 100 list by mid season. Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Caissie has a ton of power and more ability to get to it than people give him credit for. If he shows he can close a few holes against full-season pitching and improves defensively, he could certainly join the Top 100 by midseason.

Bill (Palm Beach Gardens, FL):

 Best guess as to how many ABs Riley Greene gets in 2022 (assuming no change to service time rules)?

Kyle Glaser: I’ll put the over/under at 350.

Mike (Los Angeles):

 Do you see a path back into the top 100 for guys who’s stock has fallen like Drew Waters or Simeon-Woods Richardson?

Kyle Glaser: Certainly. If Waters improves/overhauls his approach and if Woods Richardson is able to smooth out his delivery a little bit and add a few ticks of velocity, you could see them back up there.

Jimmy (Anchorage, AK):

 What pitchers on this list have the ultimate ceiling of a front of the rotation potential?

Kyle Glaser: Grayson Rodriguez, Shane Baz and George Kirby are the three that have a chance. Odds are only one of them will reach that ceiling, with a very real chance none do. There are very, very few legitimate No. 1 starters in the major leagues. The combination of stuff, control, durability and consistency required is incredibly hard to find, and even when a pitcher has it, it’s difficult to maintain year after year. If you had to bet on one of them doing it, Rodriguez would be the guy.

Michael (Raleigh):

 Were any other A’s prospects besides Soderstrom given serious consideration for the top 100? FYI, I think you were too hard on Groshans. thanks.

Kyle Glaser: No. Soderstrom is a stud, but beyond him the A’s don’t have any prospects who project to be All-Stars or significantly above-average everyday players. Groshans didn’t miss by much, but for what it’s worth, every single front office official who provided feedback said they didn’t feel he was a Top 100 prospect. There were lots of players who missed that got support to be on the Top 100 – Groshans was not one of them.

Andrew (Los Angeles):

 Were any other Angels prospects that got close to making this list?

Kyle Glaser: Sam Bachman wasn’t super close but wasn’t super far away either. No one else was particularly close.

Roy T (San Diego):

 What caused Mackenzie Gore to drop off the list completely?

Kyle Glaser: The lack of conviction he will throw strikes consistently enough in the major leagues to be an effective starting pitcher. The Padres internally believe he eventually will – no one else really does.

Sevento (Chicago):

 BA seems quite a bit lower on Max Meyer than other publications. What are BA’s concern about him?

Kyle Glaser: Personally, I think Meyer should be higher. Others have questions about how well his fastball plays in the strike zone and the fact his slider backed up in his pro debut compared to what it was in college. Just speaking for myself, I still think he’s still going to have a much more significant major league career than a lot of the players ahead of him on this list, which is ultimately what this ranking attempts to project.

Joe (Daytona):

 Lot of catchers in the top 55, this has to be some sort of record. Would MLB teams really pick Shae over guys like House and Watson to start a franchise? Or is an above replacement level catcher just that valuable? Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: I had this discussion specifically with a few executives, whether there were too many catchers in the Top 100 given the attrition rate of the position. Each time, the answer came back a resounding “no.” There is an impressive collection of catching talent in the minor leagues right now, to the point many veteran executives said it’s the strongest they can remember. As for your second question, you’re vastly underrating Langeliers. He was a Top 10 pick who jumped to straight to Double-A in his first full season and held his own offensively while drawing raves defensively at a premium position. He’s a really good player and yes, a better prospect than Watson and House.

Mitch (Florida):

 How close was Rays SS Greg Jones to cracking the top 100? His tools look crazy loud, is the swing-and-miss the main thing holding him back?

Kyle Glaser: Jones wasn’t particularly close. His plate discipline has a long way to go and his defense needs to be cleaned up a good bit for him to project to be as impactful of a major leaguer as the guys on the Top 100. He’s a good player with some things to like, but he’s not at Top 100 level. He mostly projects to be a super-utility type.

Spider (Cleveland):

 What would Peyton Burdick need to do to break onto this list by end of the 22 season?

Kyle Glaser: Make more contact.

Dungeon Master (Ballard):

 Pretty impressive Corbin Carroll is ranked that high despite missing so much time. If he had played a full season how high would you guess he’d be? And what do you expect to see from him this year in terms of performance and levels?

Kyle Glaser: The injured guys are always tricky to rank. Ultimately, this list is about projecting the 100 players in the minor leagues who project to have the best major league careers. Ultimately, Carroll’s explosiveness, hitting ability, sneaky power and advanced feel for the game still make him a potential All-Star, even with his injury. (As my colleague Matt Eddy likes to point out, everyone gets hurt at some point.) He’d likely be in the same spot with a full season, because that’s where his talent fits.

Kyle Glaser: All right everyone, I’m handing the chat off to JJ Cooper. Thanks for all your questions.

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone. Glad to be here and jumping in.

James (North East, MD):

 How close was Jordan Westburg making this list? I think him and Gunnar Henderson are very comparable as prospects.

J.J. Cooper: He wasn’t in the “just missed” group but he wasn’t too far off the list. Personally I like Henderson’s glove better than Westburg and think he’s a better baserunner. He has more power than Westburg and he was at the same levels as Westburg but he was two years younger.

John (New Jersey):

 Considering Asa Lacy is the Royals No. 2 prospect and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto are 3 and 4 and are on the Top 100, where should Asa be on the list?

J.J. Cooper: We added an editor’s note to explain it. We want to have the best list we can do, and as we kept getting feedback, we were getting feedback to flip those rankings.

Chase (California):

 Which Top 100 Prospects do you think have the best chance to be on this year’s opening day roster?

J.J. Cooper: If you look at the top 10 there aren’t many of them who don’t have a shot to play in the majors at some point this year. But the best lock of the group is Shane Baz. Considering how he finished the year, it’s hard to argue that he isn’t a fit on the Rays Opening Day roster. Similarly, Keibert Ruiz seems like a logical part of the Nationals’ 2022 Opening Day roster.

Ryan (Washington):

 Emerson Hancock dropped off the list. Is this because he really hasn’t shown much since being drafted due to injuries and pitching limits, or is there something more to it?

J.J. Cooper: It’s the injury concerns. His shoulder soreness issues are somewhat concerning. Ideally you want to see him have a stretch of consistent success. He’s been promising when healthy, but shoulder injuries are worrisome traits.

Jesse (Minneapolis):

 If Jose Miranda were a bit better defensively and had a defensive home, could he legitimately be top 25?

J.J. Cooper: Right now? No. But could he end up being one of the 25 best players in this class? Absolutely. Miranda is a tough player to evaluate because his 2021 season was far beyond his pre-2021 production. There were definitely evaluators who liked Miranda’s bat before this past year, but no one seemed to forseee this (if they did he would have followed Akil Baddoo in the 2020 Rule 5 draft). If Miranda’s 2021 season is a sign of his new level of hitting? If so then it’s not hard to construct a case for a top 25 spot–he hits for average and power and can be hidden defensively to let his bat play. But there’s also the case that Miranda is a very good hitter, but one whose 2021 production was at the outer limits of what he can do. If that’s the case, then he’s a useful big leaguer, but one whose defensive deficiencies are a little more apparent. We do get consistent reports that he’s playable at multiple infield spots, so I don’t want to make it sound like this is a player who can only play DH or first base.

Jeff (Idaho):

 With tool grades on these prospects, are those independent of things like position? For example, is a 70 grade on Adley’s power have any reflection on his power compared to other catchers? Or if both he and J-Rod have 70 power tools, are they projected to have similar power projections? If that makes sense.

J.J. Cooper: Independent of position for things like hit, power, speed and arm. Defense is one that is dependent on position which can complicate things because a player might be a 45 defensively at shortstop, a 55 at third and a 50 at second. Or an outfielder may be a 40 in center but a 50 in a corner outfield spot. (Or there are times where that may even be reversed if a speedy outfielder runs everything down in center but struggles with the tougher reads on balls in left or right).

John (Minnesota):

 The Twins have an interesting mix of pitching upper level pitching .. How far from the top 100 are guys like Josh Winder, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and Matt Canterino??

J.J. Cooper: Winder was closest to making the list. Yes I agree that the Twins have what could be very interesting AAA and AA rotations in 2022. There are a lot of plausible big leaguers here. Not any one who stands out as a slam-dunk front-of-the-rotation type, but a whole lot of pitchers who could be MLB starters and a number of those who could be starters or could be relievers. Between Balazovic, Ryan, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Canterino, Duran, Sands, Vallimont, etc. that’s a lot of pitching in the upper levels. That’s good news for the Twins when you consider that right now their MLB starting rotation consists of Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober and a whole lot of we’ll see.

Parlay (Severna Park, MD):

 Were there any Orioles (like Coby Mayo or Jordan Westburg) who came close to making the list?

J.J. Cooper: I mispoke earlier now that I’ve checked our ballots. While Westburg wasn’t a guy we talked about as far as making the top 100 (among the last names we discussed) he did rank 107th overall in our balloting. So he was close. If Geoff Pontes has his way Mayo would be on the 100 right now.

Ross (Boss):

 Which prospects on the back half of the list have the best chance to be top 10 on next year’s version?

J.J. Cooper: We will have a story looking at exactly that going up (hopefully) tomorrow.

Bob (Scarsdale):

 Simeon Woods Richardson struggled some last year with his control and now is off the top 100 list. What would it take for him to regain the momentum that he had going into 2021 and vault back up in the rankings?

J.J. Cooper: It’s hard to see him being much higher on our preseason 2023 Top 100 ranking. If he fixes the control problems that plagued him in 2021, he could realistically graduate from prospect status this year. If he doesn’t or if the concerns that he’s better off in the bullpen are confirmed than he wouldn’t move up on next year’s list.

Lee (Seattle):

 How wide is the delta of outcomes for Matt Brash compared to other larger starters with similar stuff? He seems like his repertoire is as good as almost anyone on this list, but is it reasonable to think he could actually be a 180-200 inning guy like Jose Berrios/Sonny Gray or some other smaller fireballers?

J.J. Cooper: He’s a tough one where we could rank him anywhere from where we did to 30-40 spots lower (which was some of the feedback we received from MLB sources). His stuff is exceptional. The confidence that he will hold up as an MLB starter does not match his stuff. There are a significant number of evaluators who believe Brash is best suited to be a reliever. So why is he ranked where he’s ranked? You can find evaluators who do think he’ll start (he has a plethora of pitches, the concerns are more durability based than stuff based). And even among evaluators who think he’ll be a reliever, there are those who think he could end up as one of the best relievers in the game. If that’s the case, than ranking him where he ranks makes sense. I do feel more confident about Matt Brash lights out reliever than I do Matt Brash 200 IP starter.

Justin (Austin):

 Who were the highest ranked guys on your personal list that didn’t make the BA Top 100?

J.J. Cooper: I had Greg Jones, Asa Lacy and Andrew Painter all in my 100.

Cameron (New York):

 Is there any player who was injured for most of 2021 who you are most excited to see healthy? Really excited to see what guys like Evan Carter and Kyren Paris do with a full season.

J.J. Cooper: As part of our Top 100 coverage we wrote a story specifically on that here: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/15-mlb-prospects-we-hope-have-a-healthy-2022/

AJ Preller (San Diego):

 Can you name some Padres players who you think could become top 100 prospects in the next 1-2 years?

J.J. Cooper: James Wood is the most obvious choice. He wasn’t going to make this year’s Top 100, but with a strong 2022, I could definitely see him on next year’s list.

Wayne (Mpls):

 JJ – looks like you and Kyle need to have a battle about Greg Jones! He thought he was just a super-utility type, not close to the top 100.

J.J. Cooper: We can respectfully disagree. I do think time is running out on him to have his breakout season (he’ll turn 24 early in the 2022 season) but I love the tools and he had a very solid 2021 season.

WIlliam (Colorado):

 Any concern over Jack Leiter’s durability given his shorter stature? Given where he is ranked he looks to have #1/#2 upside? Thanks!

J.J. Cooper: That’s a part of baseball that has somewhat flipped. Nowadays I’d say there are a number of teams more interested in 6-foot righthanders than 6-foot-8+ righthanders. It’s a good time to be a shorter pitcher.

J.J. Cooper: Sorry I have to head out and Geoff will be coming back in, but it will be around 3:30 p.m. ET., so there will be a short gap here.

Evan (New York):

 Everson Pereira enjoyed a breakout season with the Yankees last year and seems to have tapped into the potential that had him well ranked a couple years back. How close was he to making the top 100?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Evan and thanks for the question. Pereira did receive some votes for the top 150, but finished in the back half of that group. With the amount of graduations we’re likely to see he has a strong chance to earn a spot on the mid-season top 100. He just needs to continue to refine his approach.

John B (Pennsburg, PA):

 Thanks for both the chat and updated list! The fairly significant drop in rank of Luis Matos caught my eye. Have industry concerns been raised? Have other prospects leap-frogged him? Thanks!

Geoff Pontes: Hi John and thanks for joining us today. He’s a curious case of being a victim of his system rank and then being pushed down by a group players on the cusp of the major leagues. Matos is a player that Carlos, Kyle and myself discussed on the forthcoming podcast. Long and the short, we all view him as a player that could make a big jump this year. More mechanics of the list than any negative feedback.

nb (philly):

 Great work on the Top 100 and thanks for the chat! Curious about some young Cubs prospects. Were any of Alcantra, Cassie, Preciado, or Triantos in the conversations? Which (if any) do you see making a move into the 2023 Top 100? Thanks!

Geoff Pontes: Hi NB and thanks for the question! There’s a group of young Cubs prospects that all received votes, among them were Alcantara, Caissie, Triantos, and DJ Herz. I think there’s a good chance the three hitters just listed could play their way onto this list next year. All have strong offensive tools that have flashed already, just a matter of sustained success against higher levels of competition. Preciado is very exciting and we did get good feedback on him, just a matter of adding polish to the overall skillset.

Justin (Austin):

 The Pirates are tied for the most players in the top 100, but would they also be in contention for the most players in the 101-200 range with the depth of their system? Are the Pirates the deepest farm system is baseball right now?

Geoff Pontes: Hi Justin and thanks for chatting. I’m not sure about the 101-200 range, a lot of teams have top 10 guys left in that range, so probably not. However, after that they boast as deep a group of prospects as any system in the game. Internal discussions here at BA have included the Pirates, The Rays, the Guardians and a few others around this question of depth. The general feeling is the Pirates have a deep system and it’s about to get better in the coming year. Good news for Pirates fans, who I’m sure could use some.

Kevin (Birmingham, AL):

 Brady House hasn’t moved much in the rankings, but has made a pretty significant leap in his overall grade, 55-60 (now being basically on par with Kahlil Watson among 2021 draftees). Does this reflect meaningful post-draft improvements, or just that he was really on the border to start with?

Geoff Pontes: Hey Kevin, thanks for the question! I think the latter, he was on the line and depending on who you spoke with some had House ranked as the number one player between Mayer, Lawlar, and Watson. He’s a tremendous athlete and has the body and physicality you look for. His improvements to his swing and bat to ball skills over the last 18 months have been noticeable.

David (Seattle):

 Couple Mariners Questions. What caused the small slide for Marte? Feels silly nit picking 10 vs 18 but just curious Also This is quite the jump for Matt Brash. More of a believer that he will able to make it as a starter? Or is it a mix of potential mid-rotation starter with very high upside in the bullpen if that doesn’t work out?

Geoff Pontes: Hi David and thanks for the your question. The first part is heavily based on feedback from scouts and front office personnel that we spoke with. Still a very exciting prospect with a high ceiling, but there’s some concerns around his defensive role and just consistency. Everyone we spoke we raves about the tools, but they want them to develop into skills. Brash got great reviews across the board with some evaluators placing him above Marte within the Mariners system. He’s really unique in the sense that he throws 97 mph but it’s predominantly breaking balls. His sweeper curveball/slider is one of the best pitches in the top 100 and his changeup drives better results than you’d expect. It’s a good pitch mix, but can he be a five and dive type starter? Possibly, but there’s no question he has the ability to be a top multi-inning high leverage weapon right away.

Josh (Boston):

 Hey Geoff! Interested on what you think about the Gaurdians – They have a ton of really young depth, who do you think has the highest ceiling? Martinez, Greene, etc.

Geoff Pontes: Hey Josh and thanks for the question! The Guardians have a great system and they do a tremendous job of developing players within their organization. As for the highest ceiling in the system I’d go with Daniel Espino on the pitching side and George Valera on the positional side, though several players are in the discussion on both sides. I am hung up on the idea of Espino developing into a front of the rotation type if his command continues to develop. Valera is arguably the best hitter in the organization and is still very young, he could develop into a top four hitter on a competitive team.

Philly (In Philly):

 Geoff, sounds like you are the high man on the Coby Mayo totem pole. What do you think makes him a top 100 prospect and what kind of offensive ceiling are we looking at?

Geoff Pontes: Hey thanks for the question! I am indeed a big fan of Mayo and was impressed by his early performances. First off it’s a good swing, and he has a very refined approach for a player who had no competitive professional experience coming into the summer. It’s a good body and he’s an above-average athlete with a strong arm, so the overall skillset supports a prototype third base profile. He’ll need to continue to improve his footwork and develop in game power, but it’s all there. Ceiling wise it’s tough to say with any degree of accuracy but let’s say he’s Kyle Seager, I think Baltimore would be really happy with that outcome.

Brandon (NY):

 Wondering about Mark Vientos, was he close to making the list? Is his defensive liability holding him back? Seems to have fairly high upside offensively.

Geoff Pontes: Hey Brandon and thanks for the question. He just missed and is listed within 5-10 spots. I believe he may have even been toward the backend on an earlier version of this list. The bat is good but the questions around his defensive home drove him off the list eventually. I always say there’s a group of players from about 80-130 that all have good cases to be made for the last 20 spots or so every year, Vientos is the high end of that group.

JH (Denver):

 I see Jose Miranda and Vinnie Pasquantino as fairly similar profiles — defensively limited players who came from off the radar to have monster offensive seasons showing elite hit tools. What separates the two as prospects in your eyes such that Miranda is on the list and Pasquantino is at the end of the Royals top-10 (and presumably not close to in the discussion for the list)?

Geoff Pontes: Hi JH and thanks for the question. Both of them received love for the backend of the top 100, Vinnie Pasquantino was just a little behind Miranda and some of that was his system ranking. The bigger part was Miranda’s success at Triple-A and his ability to play a few positions, even if he’s below-average at each, was a differentiator.

Ben (Florida):

 Where do you think Kyren Paris ranks after this season? I could see him having an Anthony Volpe rise if he stays healthy.

Kyle Glaser: Paris is a good player who could certainly rise if he stays healthy. While I wouldn’t predict an Anthony Volpe type of rise (Paris doesn’t have as much power), I could see him sliding onto the back of the list as he continues to grow as a hitter and produces a high average and on-base percentage with a ton of stolen bases.

Erik (Chicago):

 Was Johan Rojas anywhere close to a top 100 position? What can he do to get there?

Kyle Glaser: Not really. Rojas is very raw as a hitter and has a long way to go. He needs to continue to improve at recognizing secondary pitches, hit the ball in the air more and make more hard contact against hittable pitches. He has tools to dream on, but his bat has a ways to go before he enters the Top 100 discussion.

Andrew (Home Office):

 Who are your picks for AL and NL rookie of the year?

Kyle Glaser: Fun question. I’ll go with Adley Rutschman in the AL and Hunter Greene in the NL. Both are going to have the opportunity to play big roles early and I think both will put up solid numbers over the course of the season.

Wayne (Mpls):

 How close were Endy Rodriguez and Landon Knack to the Top 100? Just a couple of my favorite prospects. Did Xavier Edwards fall off solely because his power hasn’t developed?

Kyle Glaser: Landon Knack isn’t too far off. Rodriguez is a ways off. Edwards fell off because he isn’t hitting the ball hard enough. He’s never going to develop over-the-fence power, but he needs to sting the ball more to project to hit enough in the majors. He’s not even really driving it for extra bases, which is an issue.

Malik (Atlanta, GA):

 2020 – wander franco 2021 – wander franco 2022 – Adley Rutchman 2023 – ? 2024 – ???

Kyle Glaser: It may very well be Anthony Volpe if the nine guys ahead of him graduate. Most of them will, but there is a chance a few of them don’t.

JH (Denver):

 I was a Julio Rodriguez skeptic until he came back from the Olympics and went supernova in Double-A (.395/.483/.565 after his return from the Olympics, with his strikeouts way down). Now I think he’s got a decent case for #1 overall. Did any industry sources specifically mention him reaching another level late in the season?

Kyle Glaser: Not so much him reaching another level as much as just being amazed at his stamina and focus. His travel schedule during the season – Everett to Florida to Everett to Mexico to Arkansas to Denver to Arkansas to Tokyo and back to Arkansas again – would have taken a toll on almost any player. The fact he not only did it but flourished spoke to the talent, physical stamina and mental strength he possesses.

Milo M. (Boston, MA):

 Thanks for all your hard work with the list and this chat! 5 young guys I’m wondering about: Adael Amador, Yohendrick Pinango, Kevin Alcantara, Deyvison de Los Santos, and Euribel Angeles. Obviously all still very early in their professional career, but was/is there buzz for any of them appearing on this list sometime soon?

Kyle Glaser: Our pleasure. Glad you enjoyed it. Pinango, Alcantara, Amador and de Los Santos are all intriguing young players you can see making the Top 100 in the future, but you could also see each of them flaming out by Double-A. Pinango less than the other three, but we’re still talking about very high-variance prospects. Angeles is a nice player but doesn’t have the All-Star/above-average regular potential we’re talking about with Top 100 prospects. He’s more of a second-division starter/utilityman if everything clicks.

Matt (Va):

 Do you think Marcelo Mayer opens up the season in Salem or extended spring training?

Kyle Glaser: Salem, barring injury or unexpected circumstances.

David (Milwaukee, WI):

 How far off is Joey Wiemer? If he carried his 2021 full season adjustments and small fall league sample to a full 2022 season ending at AA with the same level of production where is he on this list next year?

Kyle Glaser: Wiemer got a fair bit of support from front office officials to be on the list as we gathered industry feedback. I’m going to have a list of guys who didn’t make the Top 100 but who could still end up being Top 100-worthy players when we look back on their careers a decade from now. Wiemer will be on the list.

WIlliam (Colorado):

 Thanks for chat. Does Michael Busch’s ranking assume he sticks at 2b, or is his bat good enough to play as above average 1b/DH? Mid-season some concern on his hit tool, but he seemed to turn it on in 2nd half. Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: Busch’s bat is good enough to be an above-average 1B/DH. He got hit in the hand during the summer and played through it, which depressed his overall numbers, but once he got fully healthy he raked.

Ryan (New york):

 What’s the reason for ranking Moreno higher than Alvarez?

Kyle Glaser: Moreno is the better athlete and better pure hitter.

Mike (New York):

 What’s the reasoning why Marcelo Mayer is ranked in the top 15, is it the fresh off the draft syndrome or does he really have that big of a ceiling.

Kyle Glaser: Mayer has that high of a ceiling. He has a chance to be a perennial All-Star who hits for average and power while playing a graceful, fluid shortstop. Even if he bulks up, slows down and moves to third base, he’s a good enough hitter to still be a perennial All-Star. Think of him as a cross between Corey Seager and Eric Chavez. He’s that legit.

Robert F (Rockland, NY):

 I’m not gonna lie, I’m quite surprised and baffled as to how Kerbert Ruiz ranks higher than Francisco Alvarez right now.

Kyle Glaser: Look at Alvarez’s breakout this year and compare it to Ruiz’s back in 2017. Ruiz broke out at higher levels at a younger age. Ruiz is the better pure hitter, is a better receiver and has a better body. It’s not just about who the “newest” prospect is. It’s about who projects to be the better major leaguer. Ruiz has already conquered the levels Alvarez hopes to conquer and is both a better pure hitter and better pure receiver.

Oscar C (Modesto, CA):

 The Dodgers have a nice group of prospects at the top but I was wondering how far off Pages, Knack, and Beeter were from making the list? Also, how far are guys like Wilman Diaz, Bruns, Jose Ramos, Eddys Leonard, and Jorbit Vivas are from getting top 100 consideration?

Kyle Glaser: Pages was the first player off the list. Knack also got some consideration. The rest of the guys are pretty far off. All good players who are intriguing, but not quite the level of a Top 100 Prospect.

Mike (Least Williston):

 Reggie Preciado had a nice season as an 18 year old in Rookie ball and seems like the type to potentially break out in 2022. Was he close to the top 100, and do you see it likely he ends up moving off SS to 3rd base or the outfield?

Kyle Glaser: Preciado performed well in the complex leagues and is a good young player. He projects to move to third base and seeing how he tightens his plate discipline against higher-level pitching will be key in terms of whether he moves into Top 100 consideration. He’s not there yet.

Zach (Baltimore):

 Kyle Stowers is a bit older than most, but did he get any top 150 support?

Kyle Glaser: Stowers did get some love on individual Top 150 ballots. He’s certainly a prospect and his power production at Triple-A was intriguing. Seeing if he’s able to cut down on the strikeouts will be key, but he is someone a few of our staffers feel is one of the Top 150 prospects in the game.

Kyle Glaser: All right everyone, that will do it for today. Thanks for joining, and keep an eye out for more Top 100 content to come.