2017 Top 100 Prospects: By The Numbers

A collection of notes to put this year’s class of Top 100 Prospects in context.

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When Might We See Senzel In Cincy?

The Reds selected Tennessee third baseman Nick Senzel with the second overall pick in the 2016 draft and signed him for $6.2 million, the highest bonus for any player in his draft class. He hit well in a 68-game pro debut and ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the low Class A Midwest League as well as the Reds system.

The experience Senzel gained in 2016 puts him on pace to begin 2017 at high Class A and finish at Double-A. But if the recent track record for the top college position players is any guide, Senzel is just as likely to finish 2017 in the big leagues. That’s because three of the past four top college bats drafted have reached the majors in their second professional season.

Here are the top college bats selected in the past five drafts, along with peak level reached in each year and total minor league plate appearances (MiLB PA) before they reached the majors.

Draft	No	Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	MiLB PA
2016	2	Nick Senzel	Low Class A	?	—	292+
2015	1	Dansby Swanson	Short-season	Majors	—	569
2014	4	Kyle Schwarber	High Class A	Majors	—	621
2013	2	Kris Bryant	High Class A	Triple-A	Majors	773
2012	3	Mike Zunino	Double-A	Majors	—	398

Dansby Swanson, Kyle Schwarber and Mike Zunino all finished their second pro seasons in the majors, while Kris Bryant wasn’t far behind. He spent just seven games at Triple-A Iowa in his third pro season—to delay his free agent eligibility—before the Cubs called him up. Given that the Reds probably won’t be competitive in 2017, they might elect to follow the Cubs’ template with Bryant and keep Senzel in the minors until his third pro season. Note, however, that the 2013 Mariners and 2016 Braves still elected to call up Zunino and Swanson despite being in the midst of 90-loss seasons.

The reason why this five-year sample is significant is because the 2012 draft ushered in the mid-July signing deadline. This created a dynamic where more drafted players signed early enough to gain valuable pro experience during their draft years. This was less common under the previous Collective Bargaining Agreement and its mid-August draft signing deadline.

Draft	No	Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	MiLB PA
2011	6	Anthony Rendon	Did not play	Double-A	Majors	326
2010	4	Christian Colon	High A	Double-A	Triple-A	2,393
2009	2	Dustin Ackley	Did not play	Triple-A	Majors	918
2008	2	Pedro Alvarez	Did not play	Double-A	Majors	820
2007	5	Matt Wieters	Did not play	Double-A	Majors	693

Anthony Rendon, Dustin Ackley, Pedro Alvarez and Matt Wieters didn’t make their major league debuts until their third pro seasons, in part because they gained no pro experience in year one. This in turn delayed their accumulation of service time in the big leagues by one year.

This general pattern of top college bats sitting idle and not gaining pro experience in their draft years has been common all century, due mostly to holdouts while players negotiate for the highest possible bonus.

Draft	No	Player	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	MiLB PA
2006	3	Evan Longoria	Double-A	Triple-A	Majors	881
2005	2	Alex Gordon	Did not play	Double-A	Majors	576
2004	14	Stephen Drew	Did not play	Double-A	Majors	583
2003	2	Rickie Weeks	Low Class A	Double-A	Majors	909
2002	10	Drew Meyer	Double-A	Double-A	Double-A	2,088
2001	5	Mark Teixeira	Did not play	Double-A	Majors	375

Whether because of the mid-July signing deadline or because teams are more willing to entrust major league jobs to rookies, the top college position players today are breaking through to the majors earlier than they had in the past. And it’s not just the top college bats selected who reach the majors in their second pro seasons.

In addition to Swanson, the 2015 draft already has produced big leaguers Alex Bregman and Andrew Benintendi. In addition to Schwarber, the 2014 draft saw Michael Conforto and Trea Turner rocket to the majors the year after being drafted, a fact also true for college pitchers Carlos Rodon, Aaron Nola and Brandon Finnegan from that draft class.

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The Prospect Redemption

Astros first baseman A.J. Reed (49 OPS+), Reds lefthander Cody Reed (58 ERA+) and Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge (61 OPS+) all experienced brutal major league debut seasons in 2016. All three players retained their prospect eligibility and make encore appearances on the Top 100 Prospects this year—though neither Reed qualifies for the major league rookie of the year trophy because they have too much service time.

While many players who look as overmatched as Reed, Reed and Judge failed to recover from their tailspins, one can find notable examples of players who redeemed their careers after rough starts. Several went on to make multiple all-star teams. Here is a team composed of players who during the past 20 years played poorly in brief big league debuts (min. 70 at-bats but no more than 130) only to find success in subsequent seasons.

Career
Pos	Player	Year	Team	AB	OPS+	WAR
C	Brian Schneider	2000	Expos	115	41	6.7
1B	Anthony Rizzo	2011	Padres	128	51	21.7
2B	Dustin Pedroia	2006	Red Sox	89	42	50.7
3B	Todd Walker	1996	Twins	82	54	10.5
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	2006	Rockies	96	53	43.7
LF	Carlos Gomez	2007	Mets	125	55	23.8
CF	Adam Jones	2006	Mariners	74	42	28.6
RF	Charlie Blackmon	2011	Rockies	98	47	9.2

Let this serve as a reminder that sometimes a slow start is merely a slow start, and that 100-odd at-bats sometimes amounts to nothing in the grand scheme.

Pitcher rebounds are a bit more rare. Seldom does a pitcher with between 25 and 50 innings flail miserably in his debut only to develop into a star. Here are two positive takeaways.

Career
Pos	Player	Year	Team	IP	ERA+	WAR
RHP	Jason Hammel	2006	Rays	44	59	12.9
LHP	Gio Gonzalez	2008	Athletics	34	54	20.5

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The Red Sox System That Never Was

The top three prospects in the Red Sox system—outfielder Andrew Benintendi (No. 1), third baseman Rafael Devers (No. 18) and lefthander Jason Groome (No. 43)—all rank inside the top 50 overall. They might have been joined by four others had those prospects not been traded by vice president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski in his tenure in Boston, which began in August 2015. Those traded prospects are:

No	Player	Pos	Traded To	For	Date
2	Yoan Moncada	2B	White Sox	Chris Sale	12/6/16
21	Anderson Espinoza	RHP	Padres	Drew Pomeranz	7/14/16
24	Manuel Margot	OF	Padres	Craig Kimbrel	11/13/15
32	Michael Kopech	RHP	White Sox	Chris Sale	12/6/16

The Red Sox signed Moncada (Cuba), Espinoza (Venezuela) and Margot (Dominican Republic) internationally, while Kopech was a 2014 first-round selection. Other surrendered Boston prospects of note are Venezuelan outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe (part of the Sale deal) and 2013 draft pick Mauricio Dubon, a prep shortstop who went to the Brewers in the Tyler Thornburg deal in December.

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Where Are The Pitchers?

Only one pitcher ranks inside the top 20 this year—Cardinals righthander Alex Reyes at No. 4—making it one of the more batter-frontloaded Top 100 Prospects lists in BA history. You have to go back to 1995 to find the only time that no pitcher cracked that top 10 overall. That year Orioles righthander Armando Benitez ranked No. 11.

In every other year except 1995 and 2017, at least two pitchers appeared in the top 10. In 1992, for example, four of the top five overall prospects were pitchers: No. 1 Brien Taylor, No. 2 Todd Van Poppel, No. 3 Roger Salkeld and No. 5 Arthur Rhodes.

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A New First For Second Basemen

By ranking No. 2 on this year’s list Yoan Moncada scaled to previously unattained heights for a second baseman on the Top 100 Prospects. He surpassed the record held by . . . himself. He ranked No. 3 a year ago.

Just two other second basemen have ever cracked the top 10 overall prospects. The first to do so was the Indians’ Brandon Phillips, who ranked No. 7 in 2003. The Brewers’ Rickie Weeks, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2003 draft, ranked inside the top 10 on two occasions: No. 5 overall in 2004 and then No. 8 in 2005, his major league rookie season.

Other second basemen have come close to cracking the top 10. For example, the Mariners’ Dustin Ackley peaked at No. 11 in 2010, while the Angels’ Howie Kendrick (2006) and the Expos’ Delino DeShields Sr. (1990) reached as high as No. 12. But second basemen are second thoughts, generally speaking, when it comes to the Top 100 Prospects. The median ranking for the top one in each Top 100 class is No. 32 overall.

For various reasons, the game’s very best second basemen, such as Robinson Cano (never ranked), Chase Utley (peak: 81), Dustin Pedroia (peak: 77) and Ian Kinsler (peak: 98), failed to make waves on Top 100 Prospects lists.