2017 Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects
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TOP 10 PROSPECTS |
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| 1. Kyle Lewis, of | |
| 2. Tyler O’Neill, of | |
| 3. Luiz Gohara, lhp | |
| 4. Nick Neidert, rhp | |
| 5. Mitch Haniger, of | |
| 6. Andrew Moore, rhp | |
| 7. Drew Jackson, ss | |
| 8. Max Povse, rhp | |
| 9. Dan Altavilla, rhp | |
| 10. Dan Vogelbach, 1b | |
Everything changed for the Mariners in 2016. For an organization that has often struggled to win at the major league level or develop frontline homegrown talent, that was a good thing.
Jerry Dipoto took over as general manager after the 2015 season and cleaned house. Dipoto replaced Jack Zdurencik, who was fired after seven seasons without a playoff berth, and brought in Scott Servais as manager, hired Andy McKay as farm director and made 12 trades before the season began.
The result was the Mariners’ most successful season in years. They went 86-76 and remained in the hunt for an American League wild card until the season’s final weekend, while their second-place finish in the AL West was the franchise’s best since 2007.
The Mariners’ success was even more pronounced at the minor league level. All six of Seattle’s domestic affiliates made the playoffs, with Double-A Jackson and the Rookie-level Arizona League club winning championships. All in all, Mariners domestic affiliates combined for a .581 winning percentage, the third-best rate by any organization in the last eight years.
Dipoto and McKay instituted a hitting summit for their minor leaguers in their first season at the helm, gathering their offensive prospects in Arizona for a week in January to impart an organization-wide hitting philosophy focused on reducing strikeouts.
A system-wide improvement in contact rate yielded major improvements in performance from many of the organization’s top prospects. Noted power hitters Tyler O’Neill, D.J. Peterson and others cut their strikeout rates from the previous year and saw jumps in production as a result of better pitch selection.
That, plus steps forward from righthanders Nick Neidert and Andrew Moore and lefthanders Luiz Gohara and Ryan Yarbrough, gave the Mariners a large group of quality prospects who performed, a welcome development for a front office emphasizing players’ need to “earn their promotions” with measurable on-field performance.
The positive results from the initial round of change led to even more change after the season. Dipoto made five trades in a span of 16 days in November, with previous regime holdovers Taijuan Walker, Alex Jackson, Ketel Marte and Zack Littell highlighting a cavalcade of players sent away and Jean Segura, Danny Valencia, Mitch Haniger and Max Povse leading the group of players heading to Seattle.
The new players brought in strengthened the Mariners both at the major league level and in their farm system, which already received a boost over the summer when Kyle Lewis, the 2016 Golden Spikes Award winner and BA College Player of the Year, fell to them at No. 11 in the draft. They also snagged well-regarded prep third baseman Joe Rizzo, college middle infielders Bryson Brigman and Donnie Walton, and a number of mid- to late-round picks who had impressive pro debuts, topped by righthander Brandon Miller (sixth round), third baseman Nick Zammarelli (eighth), lefthander Tim Viehoff (12th) and outfielder Eric Filia (20th).
Coming off their most successful season in years at the major league level and with the farm system in better shape than any time in recent memory, optimism abounds in Seattle with the Dipoto-led regime at the helm.
1. Kyle Lewis, of | 
Born: July 13, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 210. Drafted: Mercer, 2016 (1st round). Signed by: John Wiedenbauer.
| SCOUTING GRADES |
| Batting: 55. |
| Power: 60. |
| Speed: 50. |
| Defense: 55. |
| Arm: 60. |
| Based on 20-80 scouting scale—where 50 represents major league average—and future projection rather than present tools. |
Background: In the age of never-ending prospect showcases and 14-year-old class rankings, Lewis was somewhat of a late bloomer. He played varsity all four years at Shiloh High in Snellville, Ga., but never won anything more than regional honors and went undrafted out of high school. No Southeastern Conference school offered him a scholarship—including Georgia less than an hour away—and he ended up at Mercer, which had just two NCAA tournament appearances in its 65-year history when Lewis arrived on campus. He split time playing baseball and basketball growing up, but once he began focusing solely on baseball in college, he flourished. With his elite athleticism and intelligence, Lewis adapted quickly and made the Atlantic Sun Conference all-freshman team. He became a middle-of-the-order impact regular as a sophomore, thrived in the Cape Cod League (.300/.344/.500) and emerged as one of the most potent forces in college baseball as a junior, hitting .395/.535/.731 with 20 home runs and winning the Golden Spikes Award and the BA College Player of the Year. The Mariners had him ranked as one of the top three players on their board, and they were shocked and ecstatic when he fell to them at No. 11. He signed for $3,286,700. Lewis got off to a blazing start as a pro before he tore the ACL and medial and lateral meniscus in his right knee in a grisly collision at home plate just 30 games into his pro career at short-season Everett.
Scouting Report: Lewis is an offense-first center fielder with plus power to all fields and a patient approach that allows him to control the strike zone and punish mistakes. He has some swing-and-miss to his game, like most power hitters, but he has enough feel for the barrel and understanding of what to do at the plate that he still is regarded as an solid-average hitter. He is a below-average runner out of the box but ticks up to average underway. His instincts, reflexes and efficient routes make up for whatever he lacks in terms of raw speed in the outfield and make him an above-average defender. His plus arm, combined with average speed, have some evaluators predicting he ends up in right field. However, the Mariners will leave him in center for now. There is concern about how his knee injury will affect his power base and already suspect speed, but Lewis is a hard worker who plays the game with passion and a big smile. There is little doubt among observers Lewis will put in the work to get back to the diamond as quickly and strongly as possible.
The Future: Lewis draws comparisons with his childhood hero Adam Jones, another former Mariners top prospect. He had surgery on his knee in August and is not expected to begin baseball activities until April. He will continue his rehab at the team complex in Arizona until then, with an eye on reporting to a full-season affiliate by mid-summer. Low Class A Clinton is his likely destination, but high Class A Modesto is a possibility with its drier climate making for a better playing environment post-surgery.
| 2016 Club | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| Everett (SS) | .299 | .385 | .530 | 117 | 26 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 22 | 3 |
2. Tyler O’Neill, of |
Born: June 22, 1995. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 210. Drafted: HS—Maple Ridge, B.C, 2013 (3rd round). Signed by: Wayne Norton.
Background: The Mariners drafted O’Neill 85th overall in 2013 and signed him for $650,000 because of his powerful build and power projection. The son of former Mr. Canada bodybuilder Terry O’Neill was so square and bulky that he played catcher in high school, but his underrated athleticism has allowed him to transition to the outfield.
Scouting Report: O’Neill has grown even stronger since his prep days, with muscles that bulge out of his arms, thighs and backside so much he is nicknamed “Wreck-It-Ralph” after the cartoonishly muscular animated character. Combining that muscle-driven power with exceptional bat speed, O’Neill creates double-plus power to all fields and draws raves for hitting jaw-dropping home runs. His power plays in all parks, with tales of his longballs retold in awe. O’Neill adapted to the new Mariners’ dedication to reducing strikeouts and cut his rate from 31 percent in 2015 to 26 percent in 2016. His adjustment propelled him to triple-crown contention in the Double-A Southern League and the league’s MVP award, as well as upgraded him to an average to above-average hitter in scouts’ eyes. His above-average arm and improving reads have evaluators projecting him as an average defensive right fielder.
The Future: O’Neill will begin 2017 at Triple-A Tacoma with a chance to make his major league debut by the end of the season.
| 2016 Club | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| Jackson (AA) | .293 | .374 | .508 | 432 | 68 | 144 | 26 | 4 | 24 | 102 | 62 | 150 | 12 |
3. Luiz Gohara, lhp |
Born: July 31, 1996. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 215. Signed: Brazil, 2012. Signed by: Emilio Carrasquel/Hide Sueyoshi.
Background: The Mariners signed Gohara for $880,000 as a 16-year international free agent in 2012, but he continually frustrated the organization as his weight ballooned to 250 pounds and he showed little work ethic. He had a breakthrough and shed 30 pounds in 2016 after being ticketed for extended spring training for the fourth straight year.
Scouting Report: Gohara’s rededication to his fitness led to a jump in his stuff across the board. His fastball now sits 95-98 mph and gets up to 100 after he previously struggled to maintain those velocities. His slurvy slider became a mid-80s swing-and-miss pitch with increased velocity and depth. His three-quarters arm slot and improved stuff made him difficult to square up even after a promotion to low Class A Clinton. Lefties in particular had a tough time with Gohara, hitting .227/.261/.295 off him. His fastball-slider combo gives him two future plus to double-plus pitches, and his changeup progressed to fringe-average as learned to take velocity off while keeping the same arm speed. His control comes and goes, though it improved with his newfound focus on repeating his delivery and mechanics.
The Future: Gohara is finally moving in the right direction to reach his No. 2 or 3 starter potential. He will begin 2017 at high Class A Modesto.
| 2016 Club | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| Everett (SS) | 2 | 0 | 1.76 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 21 | .224 |
| Clinton (Lo A) | 5 | 2 | 1.82 | 10 | 10 | 54 | 44 | 1 | 20 | 60 | .223 |
4. Nick Neidert, rhp |
Born: Nov. 20, 1996. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 180. Drafted: HS—Suwanee, Ga., 2015 (2nd round). Signed by: Dustin Evans.
Background: The Mariners made Neidert their first selection in 2015 and signed the Georgia prep for an above-slot $1.2 million after he wowed them with a two-hit shutout in the World Wood Bat Championships prior to his senior season. His slight frame but competitive nature draws comparisons with Tim Hudson.
Scouting Report: Neidert added velocity after a full offseason in the Mariners system, with a fastball frequently hitting 94 mph now after previously registering 90-92. He locates his fastball in every quadrant and excels at using it to get ahead immediately as a first-pitch strike. His low-80s changeup shows deception and fade, and he is developing feel for his slider, now a low-80s offering increasingly becoming a swing-and-miss pitch. What separates Neidert is exceptional command and an aggressive approach that keeps his pitch counts low and hitters on their heels. After beginning the year in extended spring training, he jumped to low Class A Clinton and immediately became one of the Midwest League’s most effective starters, posting the third-lowest WHIP in the league from the time he debuted and throwing 69 percent of his pitches for strikes. He also made major strides holding runners and fielding his position.
The Future: Neidert’s increased velocity and stuff ups his ceiling to a No. 3 or 4 starter. He will begin 2017 at high Class A Modesto.
| 2016 Club | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| Clinton (Lo A) | 7 | 3 | 2.57 | 19 | 19 | 91 | 75 | 7 | 13 | 69 | .225 |
5. Mitch Haniger, of
Born: Dec. 23, 1990. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2 Wt.: 215. Drafted: Cal Poly, 2012 (1st round supplemental). Signed by: Dan Huston (Brewers)
Background: Haniger has been on the move a fair bit in his young career. Originally drafted 38th overall by the Brewers in 2012, he moved to the Diamondbacks in a deal for Gerardo Parra in July 2014 and then to the Mariners after the 2016 season (with two others) for Taijaun Walker and Jean Segura. Haniger led the minors with a .999 OPS in 2016 and received his first major league callup.
Scouting Report: Haniger overhauled his swing mechanics after he was demoted from Double-A to high Class A in 2015, using D-backs all-star A.J. Pollock as a template. He changed his load and swing path, added a leg kick and continued his revisions throughout 2016 to improve his pitch recognition and use all fields by keeping the bat in the zone longer. With plenty of raw power, good bat speed and now an efficient swing, Haniger makes consistent hard contact at the plate. Observers believe more in-game power could come when he sees more major league pitching and gets the timing on his new leg kick down. He’s a good athlete who is a tick above-average runner, with good range, and his above-average arm allows him to play all three outfield positions effectively.
The Future: Haniger is in good shape to crack the Mariners’ Opening Day roster and help give them a righthanded power threat in the outfield.
| 2016 Club | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| Mobile (AA) | .294 | .407 | .462 | 197 | 21 | 58 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 30 | 30 | 37 | 4 |
| Reno (AAA) | .341 | .428 | .620 | 261 | 58 | 89 | 20 | 3 | 20 | 64 | 39 | 62 | 8 |
| Arizona (MAJ) | .229 | .309 | .404 | 109 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 27 | 0 |
6. Andrew Moore, rhp
Born: Jan. 2, 1994. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 185. Drafted: Oregon State, 2015 (2nd round supplemental). Signed by: Jeff Sakamoto.
Background: Moore was a two-time All-American at Oregon State who routinely confounded Pacific-12 Conference hitters despite subpar velocity. The Mariners made him a supplemental second-round pick in 2015 and signed him for $800,000.
Scouting Report: Moore possesses an uncanny ability to read swings and put any of his four pitches where he wants them, working quickly and drawing early weak contact to mow through batting orders. His fastball sits 90-91 mph but has one of the highest spin rates in the organization, making it appear faster than it actually is. His breaking pitches are average to fringe-average because his feel for them comes and goes, and his changeup grades as merely solid-average. Despite pedestrian stuff on the surface, Moore dominated hitters and held up deep into games all year at high Class A Bakersfield and Double-A Jackson, highlighted by a nine-inning, one-hit, no walk, eight-strikeout performance in Game One of the Southern League semifinals. “Cerebral” is a word often used to describe Moore, with double-plus command and control at his disposal.
The Future: Moore projects as a reliable back-of-the-rotation option. He will either begin 2017 back at Double-A or Triple-A Tacoma depending on his spring-training performance.
| 2016 Club | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| Bakersfield (Hi A) | 3 | 1 | 1.65 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 36 | 2 | 13 | 47 | .188 |
| Jackson (AA) | 9 | 3 | 3.16 | 19 | 19 | 108 | 112 | 9 | 18 | 86 | .274 |
7. Drew Jackson, ss
Born: July 28, 1993. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 200. Drafted: Stanford, 2015 (5th round). Signed by: Stacey Pettis.
Background: The younger brother of ex-big leaguer Brett Jackson, Drew hit .184 with a 37 percent strikeout rate his first two seasons at Stanford but got contact lenses before his junior year. With his vision fixed he hit .320 as a junior and the Mariners were convinced enough to make him a fifth-round pick in 2015 and sign him for $335,400.
Scouting Report: Jackson’s double-plus arm strength and speed are the foremost attributes that attract clubs to him. His arm alone makes him a potentially above-average defender despite inconsistent footwork and body positioning. His speed is elite out of the batter’s box and often turns routine grounders into singles, but he is still learning to improve his jumps and reads on the basepaths. After stealing 47 bases at short-season Everett in 2015, he stole just 16 at high Class A Bakersfield in 2016 as pitchers paid closer attention to him. Jackson’s offensive upside is his biggest question mark, with evaluators routinely grading him a fringe-average hitter with below-average power. His timing and feel for the barrel have been questioned since college, and he got out of his approach repeatedly in 2016, swinging for the fences rather than keeping the ball on the ground and letting his speed work.
The Future: Jackson has all the tools but needs to prove he can hit to reach his everyday potential. He will start 2017 at Double-A Arkansas as he tries to do just that.
| 2016 Club | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| Bakersfield (Hi A) | .258 | .332 | .345 | 524 | 87 | 135 | 24 | 2 | 6 | 47 | 50 | 105 | 16 |
8. Max Povse, rhp |
Born: Aug. 23, 1993. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-8. Wt.: 220. Drafted: UNC Greensboro, 2014 (3rd round). Signed by: Billy Best (Braves).
Background: Like many tall pitchers, the 6-foot-8 Povse struggled with his mechanics when he was younger and slumped to a 5.38 career ERA in college. Undeterred, the Braves saw promise and drafted Povse 102nd overall in 2014, signing him for $425,000. The Mariners acquired Povse and fellow righthander Rob Whalen from Atlanta after the 2016 season when they parted ways with struggling 2014 first-rounder Alex Jackson.
Scouting Report: Povse has grown into his long limbs and earned midseason promotions in each of his first two full seasons. A strained shoulder ended his 2015 campaign early, but he bounced back to average more than a strikeout per inning at high Class A Carolina in 2016 and earn a promotion to Double-A Mississippi. Povse has learned to repeat his delivery and uses his height to generate a good downhill plane on his pitches, which leads to a lot of groundouts. His fastball sits 89-92 mph and can get up to 94, while his big overhand curveball and changeup with improving depth both project to average or slightly above. He throws all of his pitches for strikes and uses his long limbs to hide the ball well, helping his stuff play up and limiting hard contact. The result was an above-average groundball rate and just nine home runs allowed in 158 innings.
The Future: Povse evokes comparisons with Doug Fister as a 6-foot-8, strike-throwing groundball aficionado. He will begin 2017 at Double-A Arkansas with a chance to rise quickly.
| 2016 Club | W | L | ERA | G | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| Carolina (Hi A) | 5 | 5 | 3.71 | 15 | 15 | 87 | 89 | 5 | 17 | 91 | .262 |
| Mississippi (AA) | 4 | 1 | 2.93 | 11 | 11 | 71 | 61 | 4 | 12 | 48 | .236 |
9. Dan Altavilla, rhp
Born: Sept. 8, 1992. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 200. Drafted: Mercyhurst (Pa.), 2014 (5th round). Signed by: Mike Moriarty.
Background: The Mariners drafted Altavilla and signed him for $250,000 after he was named the 2014 Division II pitcher of the year at Mercyhurst (Pa.). After progressing through the low minors as a starter, Altavilla converted to relief in 2016.
Scouting Report: Altavilla’s move to the bullpen went even better than expected. He began pitching from the stretch full-time to simplify his delivery and saw his velocity spike. His fastball improved from 93-95 mph as a starter to 96-98 and touching 100 as a reliever, with a devastating double-plus 89-92 mph slider as his putaway pitch. Altavilla rode his fastball-slider combo to become a Southern League all-star closer at Double-A Jackson and jumped straight to the majors in August, where he allowed only one run in 15 outings. He occasionally flashed a hard, below-average 89-93 mph changeup, but rarely needed it with his other two pitches consistently generating swings and misses and weak contact. Altavilla also earned plaudits for his composure pitching during the Mariners’ playoff push. His control is just average, but his elite velocity and movement induces batters to swing through his stuff.
The Future: Altavilla has a spot in the Mariners’ 2017 bullpen and projects long-term as an elite setup man for closer Edwin Diaz.
| 2016 Club | W | L | ERA | G | SV | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | AVG |
| Jackson (AA) | 7 | 3 | 1.91 | 43 | 16 | 57 | 40 | 4 | 22 | 65 | .196 |
| Seattle (MLB) | 0 | 0 | 0.73 | 15 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | .244 |
10. Dan Vogelbach, 1b |
Born: Dec. 17, 1992. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-0. Wt.: 250. Drafted: HS—Fort Myers, Fla., 2011 (2nd round). Signed by: Lukas McKnight (Cubs).
Background: The Cubs drafted Vogelbach 68th overall in 2011 after he showed prodigious power as a prep. The Mariners acquired him and righthander Paul Blackburn from Chicago in exchange for lefthander Mike Montgomery and righty Jordan Pries in July 2016.
Scouting Report: Vogelbach has battled injuries but produced in the minors when healthy, posting a career .871 OPS. He controls the strike zone well enough to project as an average hitter and is increasingly tapping into his above-average power. He hit 20 home runs for the first time in 2016 and Seattle rewarded him with his first major league callup in September. He struggles to make contact against lefthanders but is still able to get on base against them with his advanced, patient approach, making him more than just a platoon option. He is a well below-average defender and runner due to his hefty 6-foot frame, but the Mariners believe he can play a suitable first base with the offense he provides.
The Future: With the probable free agent departures of Adam Lind and Dae-Ho Lee, Vogelbach will contend for a platoon share of the Mariners’ first-base job in 2017.
| 2016 Club | AVG | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB |
| Iowa (AAA) | .318 | .425 | .548 | 305 | 53 | 97 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 64 | 55 | 67 | 0 |
| Tacoma (AAA) | .240 | .404 | .422 | 154 | 26 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 32 | 42 | 34 | 0 |
| Seattle (MLB) | .083 | .154 | .083 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
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