12 MLB Rookie Pitchers With Breakout Potential In 2024
Image credit: River Ryan (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
The 2023 season welcomed one of the most successful crops of rookies, including rookie pitchers, ever in MLB. While the class was headlined by well-known Top 100 Prospects like Corbin Carroll, Gunnar Henderson, Triston Casas, Eury Perez and Bobby Miller, there was a collection of players ranked outside the Top 100 who took large steps forward entering the season.
The Reds’ Andrew Abbott impressed in the Southern League to start the season before pushing his way to the majors. The Dodgers promoted 2021 sixth-round pick Emmet Sheehan and received pivotal innings at a time when they badly needed it. Pitchers like Bryan Woo, Reese Olson, J.P. France and Logan Allen all experienced some degree of success despite a lack of experience or universal Top 100 pedigree.
For today’s exercise, the following article will explore current non–Top 100 pitchers with potential to contribute for their clubs in 2024.
River Ryan, RHP, Dodgers: Ryan may be the most egregious non-inclusion in our Top 100. He made his way onto few industry lists—and for good reason. Ryan is the latest in a long line of recent Dodgers player development wins from unusual sources. A two-way player at Division II UNC-Pembroke, Ryan was acquired from the division rival Padres for Matt Beaty prior to the 2022 season. Ryan pitched his way to Triple-A by the end of 2023 after making 22 starts with Double-A Tulsa and posting a 3.33 ERA with a 23.7% strikeout rate.
Ryan mixes a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. Ryan’s four-seam fastball sits 95-97 mph touching 98 mph with 16-17 inches of induced vertical break, 9-10 inches of armside run, with six-feet-two of extension from a 5-foot-7 release. The fastball is solid, setting up his slider and two-plane curveball that drive a majority of his swings and misses. Ryan needs to prove he can consistently get through five innings and improve his fastball location. He has a shot to contribute for the Dodgers this summer.
Kyle Hurt, RHP, Dodgers: Hurt debuted for the Dodgers in a single relief appearance in 2023 and finds himself in the mix for opportunities with the major league team in 2024. Among all of the Dodgers pitching prospects, Hurt may have the best combination of pure stuff and bat-missing ability. Hurt struck out 39.1% of batters he faced in the minors in 2023 and mixes four pitches he threw over 100 times last season that boasted 28% or higher in-zone whiff rates. Hurt does have major relief risk, as he only finished five innings four times last season and could be deployed as a multi-inning reliever behind the starter. His stuff is so notable with a upper-90s fastball, an elite changeup, a upper-80s slider and a two-plane curveball.
Randy Vasquez, RHP, Padres: The Padres acquired a quartet of pitchers from the Yankees in the Juan Soto deal, led by Michael King and Top 100 Prospect Drew Thorpe. While Vasquez was not one of the headliners, he has MLB experience, stuff and an opportunity to spend a majority of his season in the Padres’ rotation.
Vasquez has a deep arsenal of pitches, mixing two fastball shapes, a cutter, slider, curveball and changeup. While Vasquez sits 93-95 mph on his fastballs, it’s his feel for spin that’s the headline. Vasquez spins both of his breaking ball shapes in the 2900-3000 rpm range with a sweepy slider with on average 14 inches of horizontal break and a curveball with equally heavy sweep and more depth. While Vasquez’s major league experience is limited, he did perform well last season, though at times it was a high-wire act. Vasquez is competing for one of the last spots in the Padres’ rotation and could win the job and keep it.
Jairo Iriarte, RHP, Padres: There are few pitchers in the minors as athletic as Iriarte. He’s an explosive thrower with a direct, explosive downhill delivery. Iriarte reached Double-A in 2023, making seven starts among his 13 appearances. He struck out 40.5% of batters he faced over 29.1 innings. While his command was fringe, it’s reasonable to anticipate some improvement in that area as Iriarte repeats his delivery well. He mixes a four-seam fastball and slider predominantly, slipping in a changeup and curveball infrequently.
Iriarte’s fastball features a cluster of strong traits including plus velocity, flat vertical approach angle, 6.9 feet of extension and a 5-foot-3 release height. These traits allow Iriarte to throw a high rate of fastballs but still miss bats and fool hitters. Iriarte’s slider is a hard mid-80s slider with between 8-10 inches of sweep. The pitch had a 48.7% whiff rate in 2023 with a 38.1% called+swinging strike rate. The two-pitch nature of Iriarte’s arsenal makes him a relief risk and he’s been limited in his exposure as a professional after the fourth inning. In this way, Iriarte is not that dissimilar from the Dodgers’ Emmet Sheehan entering 2024.
David Festa, RHP, Twins: A 13th-round find out of Seton Hall back in 2021 Festa pitched his way to Triple-A by the end of 2023 and enters 2024 on the cusp of the majors. While Festa is not on the 40-man roster, his Rule 5 eligibility date is coming this offseason, making it in the realm of possibility he’s added and then promoted at some point this season. Festa experienced success for much of the past two seasons on the strength of his three-pitch mix of his fastball, slider and changeup.
Festa’s four-seam fastball sat 95-96 mph, peaking at 97.6 mph in 2023 with ride-cut shape and 6-foot-7 feet of extension. It’s an above-average fastball that can miss bats but his command is shaky. His slider and changeup are standout pitches generating higher strike rates than his fastballs with high in-zone miss rates and swing rates north of 47%. Festa’s ability to set up his two secondaries with above-average velocity allow him to attack his better commanded secondaries, as he’s comfortable throwing any of the three behind in the count.
Ty Madden, RHP, Tigers: Since his days at Texas, Madden has evolved his throwing mechanics and fastball angle, resulting in a step forward as a starting pitching prospect as a professional. Madden has a deep arsenal of pitches, but he works primarily off of his four-seam fastball and slider. His four-seam fastball sits 94-96 mph, touching 98 mph at peak with heavy ride and run. His slider is a tight gyro slider at 84-87 mph that shows the ability to land in and out of the zone, generating a high swing rate (51.4%) and miss rate (44.7%) against the pitch.
Madden also mixes a cutter, changeup and curveball, giving him the ability to show a variety of looks off of his fastball. Madden is Rule 5 eligible this offseason and was a non-roster invitee to major league camp, hinting he could be in the short-term plans. With a history of accruing innings dating back to college, Madden has thrown 110 or more innings since 2021. Madden is a legitimate starting pitching prospect knocking on the door of the majors.
Nick Nastrini, RHP, White Sox: The White Sox acquired Nastrini from the Dodgers before last season’s trade deadline. He split his time post-trade between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte, making three starts respectively for each. Nastrini is off the 40-man roster and is likely behind Jake Eder and Jared Shuster for first crack at the White Sox rotation. Despite this, he offers the most upside of that trio and will likely be ready for his first crack at the big leagues later this summer.
Nastrini mixes four pitches in fastball, slider, curveball and changeup. His four-seam fastball sits 94-95 mph, touching 96 mph at peak with 18.7 inches of induced vertical break on average with cut. It’s an above-average fastball but it takes a backseat to his secondaries; his hard gyro slider and changeup both grade out as at least above average with excellent results in 2023 to back that claim. Nastrini will likely begin 2024 in Charlotte with an opportunity to pitch his way into the majors by the summer.
Joe Boyle, RHP, Athletics: The Athletics acquired Boyle from the Reds in the trade deadline deal for reliever Sam Moll. Boyle seemed to immediately turn a corner with his command as his walk rates dropped to career lows with the Athletics. Boyle reached the major leagues on Sept. 19 and made three starts for the Athletics. As we head into the final weeks of spring training, Boyle looks like he’s in the driver’s seat for the fifth spot in the Athletics’ rotation.
His combination of upper-90s velocity and above-average ride make his fastball an easy plus pitch and really puts pressure on hitters when he locates it. His slider is his primary secondary and it’s a weapon that generates plenty of whiffs. Boyle mixes a curveball and cutter as well and shows power across his arsenal. With improved command, Boyle could defy the odds and develop into a mid-rotation starter, something that seemed impossible a year ago.
Spencer Arrighetti, RHP, Astros: Drafted in the sixth round in 2021 out of Louisiana, Arrighetti has developed into the best pitching prospect currently in the Astros system, which is an organization known for getting the most out of pitchers with less fanfare than other organizations’ top pitching prospects. Arrighetti is a classic low-launch fastball righthander, who generates a flat vertical approach angle (-4.3 degrees) from a five-foot-two release height. While his fastball has unique characteristics, his sweepy low-80s slider is the best pitch in his arsenal, generating a solid rate of swings and misses. He mixes a changeup and curveball as well, but each has middling results. Arrighetti may end up in relief, but with a solid track record of innings, he may maintain his place as a starter.
Chayce McDermott, RHP, Orioles: Acquired from the Astros in the Trey Mancini trade, McDermott has developed into one of the Orioles’ underrated cache of pitching prospects. McDermott made 26 appearances in 2023, often piggybacking with another starter. As the season wore on and McDermott saw promotion to Triple-A, the reins came off as McDermott went five or more innings in eight of his 10 Triple-A starts to end the season.
McDermott’s arsenal is led by a four-seam fastball that’s sits 93-95 mph, touching 97 mph at peak with 18 inches of IVB from a 5-foot-7 release height. The pitch generates high rates of whiffs (31.3%) in (25.4% in-zone) and out of the zone. He pairs his fastball with a sweepy low-to-mid-80s slider, a two-plane breaker and a changeup with splitter-like shape. McDermott could be a sneaky breakout for the Orioles this season, as he truly turned a corner as a starter late in 2023.
Christian Scott, RHP, Mets: One of the biggest breakouts of 2023 was the Mets’ Scott. A reliever over three seasons at Florida, the Mets’ player development looks to have a victory with Scott, who climbed his way from a late start in Low-A early May to Double-A by mid-June. Scott’s four-seam fastball generated one of the highest run values of any fastball in the minor leagues in 2023 with a 16.23 accumulated run value.
Scott generates 6-foot-5 feet of extension, while releasing his fastball from a 5-foot-5 release height. This allows Scott to generate a flatter vertical approach angle (-4.3 degrees) helping his mid-90s fastball to play up. Scott’s primary secondary is a changeup with heavy tumble and fade, helping to change eye levels. He’s also not averse to throwing the pitch right on right. Scott’s breaking balls are fringe with a mid-80s cut-gyro slider that generates limited whiffs against it. Developing a better breaking ball is a major point of emphasis for Scott going forward, as it will define his success as a starter.
Mason Black, RHP, Giants: A former standout at mid-major Lehigh, Black has developed into a legitimate rotation option for the Giants this season. As the club deals with injuries throughout their starting pitching corps, it might be Black who emerges as a steadying presence at the back of the San Francisco rotation. Black mixes four pitches, led by his two-seam fastball and slider combination.
His two-seam sits 93-95 mph with heavy run, and generates a higher rate of whiffs (27.9%) for a two-seam. His slider is his primary secondary, and it’s a mid-80s baby sweeper with 7-8 inches of horizontal break. The slider generates a high rate of chases (30.4%) outside the zone. Black also mixes a changeup and curveball, but both pitches have performed at a below-average rate. Black will go as far as his two-seam and slider combination will take him, unless he improves his third pitch. He’s still a potential breakout who is coming into his own.
