10 Key Takeaways From Our 2024 Top 10 MLB Prospects Rankings

0

Image credit: Jackson Holliday (Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images)

Top 10 Prospects rankings provide a crystal clear snapshot of where each farm system in baseball stands in the new year.

To take advantage of this perspective, we explored many angles of Top 10 Prospects composition, including player age, production, signing status, means of acquisition, original organization and more.

In this way we studied the present to discern the future. Here are the top 10 things we learned from studying Top 10s.

Note: This piece reflects the Cubs-Dodgers trade that sent Michael Busch to Chicago and Jackson Ferris to Los Angeles in mid January.

MLB Top Prospects 2024

We ranked the 10 best prospects in every MLB organization entering 2024.

The Mariners have the youngest group of Top 10 Prospects

Since returning to post-pandemic normalcy in 2021, the Mariners have focused their first-round picks on high school position players, drafting catcher Harry Ford in 2021, shortstop Cole Young in 2022 and shortstop Colt Emerson in 2023. 

That trio accounts for Seattle’s top three prospects and helps make the Mariners’ Top 10 Prospects collectively the youngest in baseball at just over 19 years old.

Other notably young players in Seattle’s top 10 include 2023 prep outfielder Jonny Farmelo—the first-ever Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick—and prominent international free agents from the past three signing classes: outfielder Gabriel Gonzalez from 2021, outfielder Lazaro Montes and second baseman Michael Arroyo in 2022 and shortstop Felnin Celesten in 2023.

Honorable mention: Three other organizations’ Top 10 Prospects rankings include numerous high school and international prospects and average out to younger than 20 years of age: the Reds, Phillies and Padres.

The Mariners have the most position players in their Top 10

In addition to having the youngest Top 10 Prospects ranking, the Mariners also have more position players in their top 10 than any organization.

Seattle’s top nine are all position players, with only No. 10 prospect Emerson Hancock, a righthander drafted out of Georgia in the first round in 2020, representing pitchers.

The young hitters on their way to Seattle will complement the bounty of young pitching talent in the Emerald City, including a rotation that includes Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo.

Honorable mention: The D-backs, Orioles, Red Sox, Guardians, Rockies and Rays all have eight position players ranked in their Top 10s.

The Braves and Pirates have the most pitchers in their Top 10s

Just like last year, the Braves have the highest concentration of pitchers ranked as Top 10 Prospects. But this year, Atlanta has company at the top. 

The Pirates drafted LSU righthander Paul Skenes with the No. 1 overall pick in 2023, and he joins an enviable stable of young pitching prospects in Pittsburgh’s farm system

The group includes Braxton Ashcraft from the 2018 draft, Quinn Priester from 2019, Jared Jones from 2020, Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo from 2021 and Thomas Harrington from 2022. All but Solometo are righthanders.

The Braves added three college righthanders in the 2023 draft who joined the organization’s Top 10: first-rounder Hurston Waldrep from Florida, second-rounder Drue Hackenburg from Virginia Tech and compensatory second-rounder Cade Kuehler from Campbell. 

Other top Atlanta arms include 2021 picks AJ Smith-Shawver and Spencer Schwellenbach and 2022 picks JR Ritchie and Owen Murphy.

Honorable mention: Four organizations have six pitchers in their Top 10s: the White Sox, Royals, Angels and Dodgers.

The Orioles’ Top 10 Prospects compiled the most WAR 

A year ago, the Dodgers’ Top 10 Prospects compiled the highest total of estimated WAR in the minor leagues. That estimate appeared to be predictive of rookie success in 2023 after Los Angeles graduated prospects Bobby Miller, James Outman, Ryan Pepiot and Miguel Vargas from its Top 10 and Emmet Sheehan from just outside it.

This year the most productive Top 10 collective by estimated WAR belongs to the Orioles—and it’s not particularly close. Note: I use batting runs adjusted for position and FIP for pitchers as the basis for estimated WAR.

Baltimore’s Top 10 Prospects compiled nearly 34 WAR in the minor leagues in 2023, led by three of the most productive hitters overall. Here are the eight players who amassed 2.0 WAR or more.

7.1 Jackson Holliday, SS
6.1 Samuel Basallo, C
6.1 Coby Mayo, 3B
3.0 Heston Kjerstad, OF
2.8 Colton Cowser, OF
2.5 Chayce McDermott, RHP
2.3 Joey Ortiz, SS
2.0 Connor Norby, 2B 

The figures above do not include major league time by Kjerstad, Cowser or Ortiz.

Honorable mention: Four other organizations’ Top 10 Prospects compiled at least 24 WAR in 2023: the Cubs (28), Tigers (26), Mets (26) and Padres (24).

The Marlins’ Top 10 was the only one to fall short of 10 WAR

Miami has earned a reputation for pitching development, and it will have to lean on that strength as its current prospect crop advances to the major leagues.

The Marlins’ top two prospects are righthander Noble Meyer and lefthander Thomas White, high school pitchers drafted in 2023. Their No. 3 prospect is righthander Max Meyer, who missed the season recovering from Tommy John surgery.

This is the foundation for a system based more on projection than production, and in fact the 6.9 estimated WAR compiled by Miami’s Top 10 is the lowest in baseball and the lone total below 10.

Second baseman Xavier Edwards, outfielder Victor Mesa Jr. and righthander Karson Milbrandt contributed virtually all of the positive value to the Marlins’ bottom line, helping to compensate for off years by second baseman Yiddi Cappe, lefthander Dax Fulton and third baseman Jacob Berry.

Dishonorable mention: The Top 10s for the Phillies, Angels, Guardians and Rockies all hovered between 10 and 12 estimated WAR. 

The Nationals have more first-round picks ranked top 10 than any organization

The Nationals tied for the lead last year in terms of having the most players drafted in the first round ranked among their Top 10 Prospects. This year, Washington stands alone.

The Nationals return five first-rounders from last year: Jackson Rutledge from 2019, Cade Cavalli and Robert Hassell III (drafted by the Padres) from 2020, Brady House from 2021 and Elijah Green from 2022. This time the organization adds LSU outfielder Dylan Crews, the No. 2 overall pick in 2023.

Honorable mention: The Cubs and Orioles both have five players drafted in the first round ranked in their Top 10s. Meanwhile, the Dodgers (lefthander Maddux Bruns) and Astros (shortstop Brice Matthews) have only one each.

The Padres—or possibly the Tigers or Cubs—have the best batter-pitcher prospect duo

Depending on how one looks at it, the best batter-pitcher prospect duo in baseball belongs to the Padres, Tigers or Cubs.

I lean toward the Padres because they offer safety in numbers. San Diego has one position prospect ranked in the top 10 overall—catcher Ethan Salas—another ranked in the 11-20 range—shortstop Jackson Merrill—plus lefthander Robby Snelling and righthander Dylan Lesko ranked in the 26-40 range.

There are a lot of ways that scenario can break right for the Padres.

The Tigers and Cubs don’t have a single prospect ranked as highly as Salas or Merrill but have one batter and one pitcher apiece ranked inside the top 25. In both cases the combos consist of one center fielder and one righthander, all drafted in the first round.

The Detroit duo is Max Clark and Jackson Jobe. The Chicago twosome is Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton.

The Cubs have more Top 10 Prospects acquired in trades than any other organization

The Cubs’ last three first-round picks—shortstop Matt Shaw in 2023, righthander Cade Horton in 2022 and lefthander Jordan Wicks in 2021—rank among the system’s top prospects.

But what’s even more notable about Chicago’s top farm talent is how much of it was acquired in trades. That list includes three of the system’s top five prospects in outfielder and No. 1 prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong, recent pickup Michael Busch and Double-A outfielder Owen Caissie.

The Cubs added two of their Top 10 Prospects at the 2021 trade deadline when they sent Javier Baez to the Mets for PCA and Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees for outfielder Kevin Alcantara.  

Chicago acquired Caissie after the 2020 season when it traded Yu Darvish to the Padres. Righthander Ben Brown joined the Cubs at the 2022 trade deadline in the deal that sent David Robertson to the Phillies.

Busch is the most recent Cubs’ acquisition and the centerpiece of the January trade with the Dodgers that sent Low-A lefthander Jackson Ferris to Los Angeles. Busch’s playing-time outlook is considerably rosier with the Cubs on an infield corner than it would have been with the Dodgers, where he was blocked by Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy and new DH Shohei Ohtani.   

Honorable mention: The Reds, Dodgers and Rays have Top 10 Prospects rankings featuring four players acquired in trades. The White Sox, Mets and Nationals each have three trade acquisitions ranking top 10.

The Red Sox have the most international free agents ranked top 10

Boston built the top of its farm system with astute draft selections of shortstop Marcelo Mayer in 2021, outfielder Romany Anthony in 2022 and catcher Kyle Teel in 2023. 

But after that top trio, the Red Sox system has a decidedly international flavor, with six of the final seven members of the top 10 all having signed as amateurs from other countries. 

Outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela is from Curacao. Outfielder Miguel Bleis and shortstop Yoeilin Cespedes are from the Dominican Republic. 

Righthanders Wikelman Gonzalez and Luis Perales as well as outfielder Wilyer Abreu, who was originally signed by the Astros, all hail from Venezuela.

Honorable mention: The Guardians and Rockies have five Top 10 Prospects who were signed as international amateurs. The Reds, Yankees, Mariners and Rays have four apiece.

The Padres are the original signing organization for the most Top 10 Prospects

In recent years, the Padres have been one of the more active organizations in terms of dealing away prospects for major league talent. 

That changed this offseason as San Diego sought to pare payroll by trading Juan Soto and Trent Grisham and letting free agents Josh Hader, Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and others walk.

But the fingerprints of the Padres’ past trade activity is visible around Top 10 Prospects rankings. A total of 16 players ranked in a Top 10 were originally signed by San Diego.

Nine of the Padres’ Top 10 were signed by the organization. The lone exception is righthander Drew Thorpe, who was a centerpiece of the Soto trade with the Yankees in December. 

That means that seven players in other organizations’ Top 10s were originally signed by the Padres.

Most prominent on that list is Nationals outfielder James Wood, who, along with outfielder Robert Hassell III and righthander Jarlin Susana, were key parts of the Padres’ 2022 trade for Soto. Wood, Hassell and Susana rank top 10 for Washington this offseason, while the Nationals also acquired big leaguers CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore in the Soto deal.

The Padres also originally signed Cubs outfielder Owen Caissie (Yu Darvish deal), Brewers lefthander Robert Gasser (Hader deal), Marlins second baseman Xavier Edwards and Dodgers righthander River Ryan.

Honorable mention: The Astros, Yankees, Mariners and Rangers were the original signing organizations for 13 players who rank in Top 10 Prospects.

Download our app

Read the newest magazine issue right on your phone