Drafted in the 5th round (162nd overall) by the Colorado Rockies in 2007 (signed for $143,000).
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For the second straight year, Miami (Ohio) should have two pitchers selected in the first three rounds. In 2006, the White Sox took Matt Long in the second round and the Rockies grabbed Keith Weiser in the third. This June, John Ely and Graham will go in about the same territory. On the right day, Graham can look like a first-rounder. He's 6-foot-6 and 233 pounds, and he can show a 94-96 mph fastball and a swing-and-miss slider. He usually works at 92-93 and his slider is inconsistent, and most scouts think his stuff will play up if he's a reliever, his full-time role as a freshman. His fastball could creep into the high 90s if he comes out of the bullpen. His third pitch is a splitter that he uses as a change of pace, but hitters know Graham is mostly coming at them with hard stuff. He still needs polish, as he could do a better job with his secondary pitches, command and conditioning. He's not soft, but he's not as tenacious as Ely.
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Graham was a starter in the Rockies system and continued to pitch in the rotation after Colorado traded him to the Indians for Rafael Betancourt in July. The scouting consensus, however, is that he'll fit better in the bullpen, where he spent his first two years at Miami (Ohio). Graham throws a low-90s fastball that has been clocked up to 97 mph. With his size, he generates downhill plane, and the solid sink on his heater is aided by the angle and leverage he's able to create. Graham's slider bites downhill and flashes depth at times. It has a chance to be an average or better pitch with a bit of late tilt when it's on, but it's inconsistent right now. Some scouts question Graham's athleticism and have concerns about his body, and his results bear out those worries. He walked five batters per nine innings in 2009, showing his control needs quite a bit of work. He needs to be able to repeat his delivery to throw more strikes, and his corkscrew arm action doesn't make things easier for him. Graham will probably open this year in Double-A.
Primarily a reliever his first two years in college, Graham moved into a rotation role with the Rockies because the team simply wanted him to log innings. After spending his pro debut getting in shape at the short-season level, Graham started to change the thinking about his future. He flourished in the role of a starter at Asheville, ranking second in the South Atlantic League (to Giants top prospect Madison Bumgarner) in ERA despite the hitter-friendly environment. His two plus pitches are a mid-90s fastball with movement and a hard slider, which he sometimes struggles to command. He ranked second in the SAL in walks. He messes with a curveball and has the makings of a changeup, and will have to refine one of those pitches to make the move to the big leagues as a power starter. If he can't add an offspeed pitch, he still has the ability to be an impact late-inning reliever. Given his age and his success in the SAL, Graham should move to Tulsa in 2009.
A year after drafting Keith Weiser out of Miami (Ohio) in the third round, the Rockies went back to the Redhawks for Graham in the fifth round last June. Signed for $143,000, he was a project when he arrived at Tri-City. It wasn't until the end of the summer that he started to get in shape, and he drew attention when he hit 98 mph with his fastball in his final outing. He pitched at 93-94 mph for most of his debut and also flashed a swing-and-miss slider. Graham also throws a curveball, and his changeup ranks as his fourth-best pitch. He was a reliever in his first two college seasons and most area scouts projected him to eventually return to that role, but Colorado will give him a chance to develop as a starter. To remain in the rotation, Graham will need to find a trustworthy offspeed offering and improve his control so he can keep his pitch counts down. He does throw on a steep downhill angle, but his delivery relies too much on his arm and not enough on lower body, which will have to be addressed to ease strain on his shoulder. He'll probably move up one step to low Class A this year.
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