Which 2022 Rule 5 Picks Are Sticking?

Editor’s Note: Updated with news that Kevin Kelly and Ryan Noda have made Opening Day rosters and the news that Andrew Politi has been designated for assignment.

The minute a player is picked in the MLB Rule 5 draft, his life changes.

It’s not just that the player has a real shot at an MLB job, it’s also the increased salary that comes from being a member of the 40-man roster, salary bumps that continue even if you are sent back to your original team.

And that’s good, because in reality, the path to sticking as a Rule 5 pick is a difficult one. The old law school cliche is true when it comes to MLB Rule 5 picks. Look to your left and look to your right with Rule 5 picks—historically two of every three fail to stick. Of the 332 MLB Rule 5 picks since 2000, 111 have fulfilled the roster requirements of being carried on their new team’s roster for the entire following season and 90 days on the active roster.

So far, three of the final four picks in the Rule 5 draft have already been offered back to their original teams. Another three are likely to begin the season on the injured list. Righthander Thad Ward, the No. 1 pick last December, has been told that he will make the Nationals’ Opening Day roster; righthander Gus Varland has made the Brewers’ Opening Day roster, and catcher/outfielder Blake Sabol has made the Giants’ roster.

That leaves six other picks who will find out their fates this week. There is reporting that Nick Avila will not make the White Sox’s roster, but his roster status has not yet changed.

Here’s a look at how the 2022 MLB Rule 5 draft picks have fared so far this year.