Trading An Ace In Offseason Proves To Be Better Bet
Back at the trade deadline, we examined the history of teams trading an ace and receiving a prospect-laden package in return.
Looking back, we found that in almost every case, a team trading a pitcher of Sale’s caliber at the deadline almost never received equal value back over time, no matter how touted the prospects received in return.
But now that Sale has been traded from the White Sox to the Red Sox in the blockbuster move of the winter, it’s worthwhile to see if teams making such a trade in an offseason, rather than at the trade deadline, come out any better when trading an ace.
As in our previous piece, we looked back at every offseason deal in the wild-card era (1995 to present) involving an ace-caliber pitcher, measuring the post-trade career wins above replacement (WAR) totals, as estimated by Baseball-Reference.com, of the players involved.
Only trades made in the offseason were considered. Our baseline criteria was two-fold. The deal must involve a pitcher who meets the following two criteria:
(1) He won a Cy Young Award within the previous three years of the trade or had been an all-star in at least three of the previous four seasons. Sale meets the latter criteria, and
(2) He was traded for at least two players who had not yet exhausted their rookie eligibility.
April 6, 1995: Royals trade RHP David Cone to Blue Jays for SS Tony Medrano, RHP Dave Sinnes, and 3B Chris Stynes.
|Blue Jays receive||Post-Trade WAR||Royals receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|David Cone||26.5||Chris Stynes||8.2|
|Total: 26.5||Total: 8.2|
|Red Sox receive||Post-Trade WAR||Expos receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|Pedro Martinez||62.6||Carl Pavano||17.0|
|Total: 62.6||Total: 25.3|
|Red Sox receive||Post-Trade WAR||D-backs receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|Curt Schilling||17.8||Jorge De La Rosa||13.9|
|Total: 17.8||Total: 16.8|
|Yankees receive||Post-Trade WAR||D-backs receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|Randy Johnson||12.3||Javier Vasquez||22.5|
|Total: 12.3||Total: 29.8|
|Mets receive||Post-Trade WAR||Twins receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|Johan Santana||15.2||Carlos Gomez||23.4|
|Total: 15.2||Total: 23.9|
|Phillies receive||Post-Trade WAR||Blue Jays receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|Roy Halladay||17.1||Travis D'Arnuad||0.8|
|Total: 17.1||Total: -0.5|
|Mariners receive||Post-Trade WAR||Phillies receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|Cliff Lee||26.0||Phillippe Aumont||-0.7|
|Total: 26.0||Total: -1.5|
|Brewers receive||Post-Trade WAR||Royals receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|Zack Greinke||24.7||Lorenzo Cain||20.4|
|Yuniesky Betancourt||-3.6||Alcides Escobar||9.8|
|Total: 21.1||Total: 42.2|
|Blue Jays receive||Post-Trade WAR||Mets receive||Post-Trade WAR|
|R.A. Dickey||7.2||Noah Syndergaard||7.4|
|Josh Thole||-2.3||Travis D'Arnaud||0.8|
|Mike Nickeas||0.0||John Buck||0.1|
|Total: 4.9||Total: 8.3|
As you can see, teams fared much better in their prospect returns when shipping away their ace in the offseason rather than midseason, with multiple successes recently in particular.
In four of the last six instances an “ace” was traded, the players received ended up providing more post-trade WAR than the pitcher moved. While this wasn’t the case early on in these types of trades (the ace outperformed his return in the first three deals of this type), it is clear getting back equal or better value has happened recently.
Of course, it is incumbent of the team receiving the haul to actually keep the player that would help them "win" or "even out the deal, something the Twins (with Carlos Gomez) and Diamondbacks (with Jorge De La Rosa in the Schilling trade and veteran Javier Vazquez in the Johnson trade) failed to do, making the deals look worse for them in retrospect.
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Still, if history is any indication, White Sox fans can take hope in the fact that the package they received will work out, even if Sale keeps delivering top-flight performance in Boston.