Ten First-Rounders Are Left Available For Rule 5 Draft

Image credit: Logan Davidson (Photo by Bill Mitchell)

Editor’s Note: The unprotected first round listings have been clarified to make clear they are listed with the team that drafted them.

If Connor Scott, Logan Davidson, Hunter Bishop or seven other recent first-round picks are ever to have significant MLB careers, they will be bucking a lot of history.

There were 10 2018/2019 first-round picks who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this offseason that were unprotected by being left off their team’s 40-man roster. That means that their team decided it was willing to risk losing them in the Rule 5 draft rather than add them to the 40-man roster.

In general, that risk will not result in the player being picked. Of the 41 previous unprotected first-rounders since the 2012 draft, only two (Richie Martin and Kyle Holder) have been picked in the Rule 5 draft. Of those 41 players, none have produced 1.0 career bWAR.

The 10 first-rounders who were left unprotected this year are. The player are listed by their drafting team. Connor Scott (Pirates) and Will Wilson (Angels) have since been traded.

2018 High School First-Rounders

Connor Scott, OF, Marlins. (13th overall, 2018)

Jordyn Adams, OF, Angels (17th overall, 2018)

Anthony Seigler, C, Yankees (23rd overall, 2018)

Mason Denaburg, RHP, Nationals (27th overall, 2018)

Nick Schnell, OF, Rays (32nd overall, 2018)

Ethan Hankins, RHP, Guardians (35th overall, 2018)

2019 College First-Rounders

Hunter Bishop, OF, Giants (10th overall, 2019)

Will Wilson, SS, Angels (15th overall, 2019)

Kody Hoese, 3B, Dodgers (25th overall, 2019)

Logan Davidson, SS, Athletics (29th overall, 2019)

This was the worst year for protecting first-round picks since the new draft rules were adopted in 2012. Exactly 25% of first-time eligible first round picks (10 of 40) were left unprotected. Last year was the lowest unprotected rate since 2012 at 14% (4 of 28). In every single year in the study, a higher percentage of high school first-round picks have been left unprotected when compared to college picks.

Year	Total Picks	HS	College	HS Unprotected	College Unprotected	Unprotected Percentage
2016	35	17	18	4	2	17.14%
2017	32	14	18	3	2	15.63%
2018	33	15	18	4	4	24.24%
2019	34	17	17	7	1	23.53%
2020	35	17	18	4	3	20.00%
2021	28	12	16	3	1	14.29%
2022	40	17	23	6	4	25.00%

Here’s the complete list of first-round picks since 2012 who were left off 40-man rosters in their first year of Rule 5 eligibility. Teams generally add first-round picks if they are torn about whether to protect a first-rounder, so the list of unprotected first-round picks is notable for its lack of players who went on to have significant MLB roles.

Year	Pick	Player	Pos.	Drafting Team
2014	2	Tyler Kolek	RHP	Marlins
2016	4	Riley Pint	RHP	Rockies
2015	6	Tyler Jay	LHP	Twins
2017	6	Austin Beck	OF	Athletics
2013	7	Trey Ball	LHP	Red Sox
2018	9	Kyler Murray	OF	Athletics
2015	10	Cornelius Randolph	SS	Phillies
2019	10	Hunter Bishop	OF	Giants
2014	11	Max Pentecost	C	Blue Jays
2015	13	Garrett Whitley	OF	Rays
2018	13	Connor Scott	OF	Marlins
2016	14	Will Benson	OF	Guardians
2019	15	Will Wilson	SS	Angels
2012	17	D.J. Davis	OF	Blue Jays
2015	17	Brady Aiken	LHP	Guardians
2018	17	Jordyn Adams	OF	Angels
2015	18	Phil Bickford	RHP	Giants
2014	19	Nick Howard	RHP	Reds
2013	20	Jonathon Crawford	RHP	Tigers
2015	20	Richie Martin	SS	Athletics
2015	21	Ashe Russell	RHP	Royals
2017	22	Logan Warmoth	SS	Blue Jays
2014	23	Derek Hill	OF	Tigers
2015	23	Nick Plummer	OF	Cardinals
2016	23	Delvin Perez	SS	Cardinals
2017	23	Jeren Kendall	OF	Dodgers
2018	23	Anthony Seigler	C	Yankees
2019	25	Kody Hoese	3B	Dodgers
2012	26	Stryker Trahan	C	Diamondbacks
2013	26	Eric Jagielo	3B	Yankees
2017	26	Bubba Thompson	OF	Rangers
2012	27	Clint Coulter	C	Brewers
2015	27	Mike Nikorak	RHP	Rockies
2016	27	Cody Sedlock	RHP	Orioles
2017	27	Brendon Little	LHP	Cubs
2018	27	Mason Denaburg	RHP	Nationals
2013	28	Rob Kaminsky	LHP	Cardinals
2014	28	Foster Griffin	LHP	Royals
2015	29	Jon Harris	RHP	Blue Jays
2017	29	Chris Seise	SS	Rangers
2019	29	Logan Davidson	SS	Athletics
2012	30	Ty Hensley	RHP	Yankees
2013	30	Travis Demeritte	SS	Rangers
2015	30	Kyle Holder	SS	Yankees
2016	30	Cole Ragans	LHP	Rangers
2014	32	Braxton Davidson	OF	Braves
2018	32	Nick Schnell	OF	Rays
2015	33	Nolan Watson	RHP	Royals
2018	35	Ethan Hankins	RHP	Guardians

And here is a look at what percentage of first-round picks each team has protected since 2012. The Athletics are on an unfortunate streak. With 2019 first-rounder Logan Davidson being unprotected, the A’s have not added their first-round pick to the 40-man roster in three consecutive drafts (Austin Beck, Kyler Murray and Davidson). The A’s 2020 first-round pick Tyler Soderstrom should halt that streak next year.

Team	Picks	Protected	Pct
White Sox	9	9	100.00%
Astros	8	8	100.00%
Padres	8	8	100.00%
Pirates	8	8	100.00%
Mariners	7	7	100.00%
Mets	7	7	100.00%
Braves	9	8	88.89%
Red Sox	9	8	88.89%
Reds	9	8	88.89%
Brewers	8	7	87.50%
Cubs	8	7	87.50%
Orioles	8	7	87.50%
Nationals	7	6	85.71%
Phillies	7	6	85.71%
Twins	7	6	85.71%
Diamondbacks	6	5	83.33%
Rays	11	9	81.82%
Dodgers	9	7	77.78%
Marlins	9	7	77.78%
Cardinals	12	9	75.00%
Giants	8	6	75.00%
Rockies	8	6	75.00%
Tigers	7	5	71.43%
Royals	10	7	70.00%
Angels	6	4	66.67%
Guardians	8	5	62.50%
Blue Jays	10	6	60.00%
Rangers	10	6	60.00%
Yankees	9	5	55.56%
Athletics	8	4	50.00%