Ten First-Rounders Are Left Available For Rule 5 Draft
Editor's Note: The unprotected first round listings have been clarified to make clear they are listed with the team that drafted them.
There were 10 2018/2019 first-round picks who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this offseason that were unprotected by being left off their team’s 40-man roster. That means that their team decided it was willing to risk losing them in the Rule 5 draft rather than add them to the 40-man roster.
In general, that risk will not result in the player being picked. Of the 41 previous unprotected first-rounders since the 2012 draft, only two (Richie Martin and Kyle Holder) have been picked in the Rule 5 draft. Of those 41 players, none have produced 1.0 career bWAR.
The 10 first-rounders who were left unprotected this year are. The player are listed by their drafting team. Connor Scott (Pirates) and Will Wilson (Angels) have since been traded.
2018 High School First-Rounders
Connor Scott, OF, Marlins. (13th overall, 2018)
Jordyn Adams, OF, Angels (17th overall, 2018)
Anthony Seigler, C, Yankees (23rd overall, 2018)
Mason Denaburg, RHP, Nationals (27th overall, 2018)
Nick Schnell, OF, Rays (32nd overall, 2018)
Ethan Hankins, RHP, Guardians (35th overall, 2018)
2019 College First-Rounders
Hunter Bishop, OF, Giants (10th overall, 2019)
Will Wilson, SS, Angels (15th overall, 2019)
Kody Hoese, 3B, Dodgers (25th overall, 2019)
Logan Davidson, SS, Athletics (29th overall, 2019)
This was the worst year for protecting first-round picks since the new draft rules were adopted in 2012. Exactly 25% of first-time eligible first round picks (10 of 40) were left unprotected. Last year was the lowest unprotected rate since 2012 at 14% (4 of 28). In every single year in the study, a higher percentage of high school first-round picks have been left unprotected when compared to college picks.
Here's the complete list of first-round picks since 2012 who were left off 40-man rosters in their first year of Rule 5 eligibility. Teams generally add first-round picks if they are torn about whether to protect a first-rounder, so the list of unprotected first-round picks is notable for its lack of players who went on to have significant MLB roles.
|2013||7||Trey Ball||LHP||Red Sox|
|2014||11||Max Pentecost||C||Blue Jays|
|2012||17||D.J. Davis||OF||Blue Jays|
|2017||22||Logan Warmoth||SS||Blue Jays|
|2015||29||Jon Harris||RHP||Blue Jays|
Logan Davidson Picks Up Where He Left Off
The 2019 first-round shortstop out of Clemson has improved his swing from both sides of the plate.
And here is a look at what percentage of first-round picks each team has protected since 2012. The Athletics are on an unfortunate streak. With 2019 first-rounder Logan Davidson being unprotected, the A's have not added their first-round pick to the 40-man roster in three consecutive drafts (Austin Beck, Kyler Murray and Davidson). The A's 2020 first-round pick Tyler Soderstrom should halt that streak next year.