San Diego Padres 2020 Top 10 MLB Prospects Chat

Image credit: CJ Abrams (Photo by Bill Mitchell)

CLICK HERE TO SEE SAN DIEGO’S TOP 10 2020 PROSPECTS

 

Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody. Hope you all had a fun and safe holiday season. Let’s get chatting.

Carl (San Antonio):

 If Joey Cantillo adds some velocity what type of profile are we looking at? Do you have a comp in mind?

Kyle Glaser: You’re looking at a solid back-end starter, although some of that depends on exactly how much velocity he adds. As far as comps, pick your favorite 88-91 mph back of the rotation lefthander with a good changeup. There are lots of them.

Dan (SoCal):

 Thanks for the chat. Who should I be keeping an eye on for Lake Elsinore this season? Any sleepers?

Kyle Glaser: My pleasure. We saw Adrian Martinez make his way up to Lake Elsinore for the playoffs last year. That’s a very nice sleeper arm. Efrain Contreras is another pitcher some people like who should be up there as well. As far as bigger names, Tucupita Marcano will be there after getting up to Elsinore for the Cal League playoffs last year and catcher Blake Hunt should be there, too. Jeisson Rosario and Tirso Ornelas will be back repeating the league, as well. There probably won’t be a top guy until CJ Abrams gets there, but it should be a solid group of good prospects.

Abrams vs. Carroll (How Close Are They?):

 Hi Kyle, thanks for chatting with us today. Both CJ Abrams and Corbin Carroll were lauded as 2 of the top 3 HS bats in the draft and hit the ground running. Both crushed rookie ball and ended up either at LoA or the NW league to end the season. Abrams gets most of the attention with his athleticism and size, but Carroll showed surprisingly high exit velos. Do you think both are within 10-15 spots of each other when the 2020 top 100 comes out next month?

Kyle Glaser: 10-15 spots is a little too close. Carroll is very good, but Abrams outhit him and outslugged him by 100+ points at the plate, is faster and plays the infield. They’re both excellent young players, but Abrams’ athleticism and raw ability are just on another level. Abrams is a slam dunk Top 50 prospect, while Carroll probably ends up more toward the back of the Top 100.

Taylor Trammell (Finally Breaking Through?):

 After making some mechanical changes to my swing once traded to the Padres, I really showed what I am capable of offensively in the Texas League playoffs. Do you think the Padres have unlocked something in my offensive game where I’ll finally consistently tap into my plus power in 2020 and re-establish myself as one of the best prospects in baseball?

Kyle Glaser: The biggest thing with Trammell was getting him on time. The Padres made the adjustments to his hand position and stance to help him be on time with his swing, and we saw the results. Trammell doesn’t have plus power, however. It’s more average pop. It’s really going to be up to him whether or not he maintains his swing improvements and makes the most of his talent. You generally bet on high-makeup individuals like him doing so.

Alex (Bay Area):

 Is Trea Turner a good comp for CJ Abrams? Both have elite speed and athleticism with some raw power but not the most ideal defensive fit at SS. Do you see Abrams eventually either moving to 2nd or CF?

Kyle Glaser: Let’s hold off comping teenagers with 34 professional games under their belt. As far as Abrams’ defensive position, 2B is seen as the most natural fit for him if he has to move (which will be dictated as much by Fernando Tatis’ presence as anything Abrams does), but he does have the raw athleticism and speed for center if they wanted to try him out there. For now though, the Padres plan to develop Abrams as a shortstop so he can just be comfortable at his natural position and let his bat develop. That’s what’s most important.

Tyler (AL):

 Any hope for Jeisson Rosario to turn it around offensively?

Kyle Glaser: Sure. Depends on how much time and effort he puts in to reworking his swing. It’s a nonfunctional, minimal impact swing right now in games, but he shows you a much better, impactful swing in BP. He’s still young with a great eye for the strike zone. That’s a good place to start. Now it’s just about whether he puts in the work and applies the changes in games.

Dan (San Diego):

 Where do you see Morejon, Baez and Weathers in next two plus years?

Kyle Glaser: I see Michel Baez as the Padres’ eighth-inning guy setting up Andres Munoz. I see Adrian Morejon in another uniform after being used in a trade and I see Weathers in Triple-A.

Dave (San Diego):

 Gabriel Arias top 100 candidate with strong 1st half in AA as 20 yr old? His tools seem to be on par with Jeter Downs…

Kyle Glaser: Depends on what you mean by strong first half. If Arias shows power but is still swinging and missing 20 percent of the time, then no. If he cuts down the whiffs, then possibly. Arias’ defensive tools are better than Downs and he has more raw power, but Downs is much faster and makes a lot more contact, which also means he gets to his power more in games, which is what really matters.

Eric (Chula Vista):

 RHP Efrain Contreras is another interesting sign out of Mexico. What is his ceiling?

Kyle Glaser: Depends who you ask. There isn’t really a plus pitch in there, and some evaluators would say there isn’t an above-average one, either. But he can throw four pitches for strikes, and sometimes those guys make it up as a swingman/spot starter. That’s kind of the optimist view of where Contreras ends up.

Nathan (Phoenix):

 Thoughts on this year’s J2 class? Reginald Preciado?

Kyle Glaser: Preciado and Ismael Mena were both two of the better prospects in the July 2 class, and Preciado in particular made a big impression on the Padres player development staff during fall instructional league. There’s a long way to go, but generally speaking the Padres J2 class is presently viewed in a favorable light.

Warren (New London):

 Physically, CJ Abrams reminds me a lot of Michael A Taylor. I know I’m not supposed to take the 2023 lineup too seriously, but isn’t Abrams a much better candidate for center field than Taylor Trammell? (Surely Josh Naylor isn’t going to be able to play right field, so maybe Trammell in left and Grisham in right?)

Kyle Glaser: Abrams was penciled in at CF until the Xavier Edwards trade, which forced some juggling. You are correct that Trammell is not a great fit in center because he’s not a natural defender there, and Naylor is really a 1B/DH who is miscast as an outfielder. You should read it as the Padres need to find a true center fielder to improve their outlook as a club.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware):

 What’s your take on pitcher Jean Cosme who did well in A ball but seems to have crashed when advanced to AA?

Kyle Glaser: He flashed some good stuff at times. It was his first year back from Tommy John surgery, this coming year will be more telling.

Philip (San Diego):

 That seems like a very aggressive ranking of Andres Munoz as a reliever only with a rough delivery. Are you confident in him staying healthy? Also was any of Reggie Lawson/Joey Cantillo/Hudson Head considered?

Kyle Glaser: It’s a reflection of just how dominant Munoz can be. He was 20 years old in the majors and struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced. A dominant end of game reliever is incredibly valuable, let’s not kid ourselves. Lawson has consistency and health red flags and Head is incredibly young with promising tools but a lot of refining to do. Cantillo was the one considered for the Top 10, but it was as a potential swap with Weathers at 10. When we look back 10 years from now, Munoz likely will not only have had a better career than the players below him on this list, but very possibly many of the guys above him, too.

Patrick H (Walnut Creek CA):

 Give me a legit sleeper in the system? Someone who could develop into an All Star. Thanks

Kyle Glaser: Take this with a very, very large grain of salt, because they best farm systems of all-time generally have 4 future All-Stars, tops, and the Padres most likely four are all in the top 10. What I will say is Joshua Mears could click in a big way as a massive, power hitting outfielder, while the bar for All-Star catchers is so low that we could see Blake Hunt eventually make one with his defensive ability and knack for hard contact. Both could very well flame out in AA, however. This isn’t the same Padres system in terms of depth as in past years where there were potential All-Stars outside the top 10.

Ian (Florida):

 What’s your thoughts on what Edward Olivares 2020 season looks like? Great year in AA last year and looks ready, but no where to play in that OF.

Kyle Glaser: He’s making all the right improvements. You liked the look and the athleticism in Elsinore last year, but the actual game play was pretty underwhelming (late jumps, bad routes, average run times on the bases, etc). He improved all of that in Amarillo last year. He’s still a tick below average defensive outfielder in terms of the ground he covers, but if he makes another jump and becomes a tick above average, then we can start talking about him as part of the Padres outfield rotation.

Matt Evans (San Diego):

 Kyle, what would you say is a legitimate possible ETA on Gore? Padres have shown they will pull the trigger early in some instances. He could really help them this year and is further along then Paddack was when they broke camp with him in rotation.

Kyle Glaser: He’s not further along than Paddack was. Paddack was 23 years old and had seven starts at Double-A. Gore will be 21 and had five starts at Double-A, which were much rougher than Paddack’s. A lot of it will depend on how Gore looks in spring training, and also what happens around him in terms of guys getting hurt, etc. If I were a betting man, I’d put the callup date somewhere in the May/June range.

Bradley (Santee, CA):

 More likely to happen: Abrams becomes the Padres’ starting 2B or starting CF? Also, might we see him by 2021?

Kyle Glaser: The Padres like Abrams in the infield and view him as more of a potential 2B than CF. That said, a lot is going to depend on what happens around him in terms of trades, FA signings, etc. It’s not just about him in a vacuum. As far as potential ETA, it’s certainly possible he moves that quickly, especially now that the Padres have largely cleared out the other main long-term 2B options (Urias, Edwards) ahead of him. At the same time, injuries happen, things go sideways, etc. It’s tough to say with any massive conviction when he’ll be ready for the majors.

Tirso Orenlas (#11-15?):

 After a hot start to the year I really struggled with being aggressively assigned to HiA as a 19 year old. Reports are I looked better at instructs and SD is high on my work ethic and character. Am I in the #11-15 range and still poised to break out in 2020?

Kyle Glaser: Ornelas is lower than 11-15. Even within the Padres front office, there’s a lot of concern that he’s a big guy who is going to struggle to prevent his actions from slowing down as he ages. Ornelas showed enough at the end of the season to stay on radars, and I would not bury him yet, but the bat speed and bat path need to be watched and maintained very, very closely.

G4 (Milwaukee):

 Not technically a prospect question, but 300 ABs in, what’s the revised outlook for Francisco Mejia? Your gut, do you think he’ll fulfill his top 50 prospect potential within the next 2-3 years. Thanks!

Kyle Glaser: I’m always happy to answer big league questions. Keep them coming. The good thing with Mejia is we saw that even with his free-swinging ways, he can still hit .260+ in the majors. (And that number was a lot higher once he actually started getting consistent playing time). That was the question on his bat, how much the free swinging would hamper him, and he showed his hand-eye coordination and natural hitting gifts are good enough to overcome it. Now, whether he fulfills that Top 50 prospect status will be determined by how he grows as a catcher. There are still a lot of improvements to be made there.

Jeisson Rosario (Offensive Ceiling?):

 Will I ever have enough offensive impact to be a regular OF or am I seen to be a future 4th OF in the mode of Leury Garcia? The physical tools seem to be there but I haven’t been able to make hard contact.

Kyle Glaser: Right now Rosario is a minor leaguer for most evaluators. Some thought he was not one of the Padres Top 30 prospects. If you’re an outfielder and don’t make any kind of impact with the bat, you’re not a big leaguer, period. See our study last year on it. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/jeren-kendall-buddy-reed-and-the-fourth-outfielder-floor/

Andy (SoCal):

 If the Padres truly found a mechanical fix to Taylor Trammell’s swing late last season, do you see potential for a future 30 HR/30 SB 5 tool monster in there? He’s shown flashes but hasn’t been able to consistently tap into his plus power in the past.

Kyle Glaser: 30-30 is a bit much. Think more 20-20. His defense, arm and power are all average tools, at best. He’s still got a chance to be a very good player (.260, 20-20 with solid defense is a darn good player) but I sense Padres fans are overestimating the ceiling here.

Michael (San Diego):

 How much separation do you have between Weathers and Cantillo at this point?

Kyle Glaser: Not much, at all. I struggled a lot with ranking those two. They’re right next to each other in the Handbook (sneak peak: Cantillo is No. 11) and I cannot honestly tell you that I feel 100 percent confident in having ranked Weathers above Cantillo. Weathers has a little more pure stuff and is a bit more of a natural strikethrower, but Cantillo has the better body, work ethic and singular pitch (his CH). It would not surprise me, at all, if we look back in 10 years and Cantillo has way outpitched Weathers and made me look foolish for this year’s ranking.

Wilfred (Akron):

 If I told you my three favorite Padres prospects are MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patiño, and CJ Abrams, how comfortable should I feel that all three will still be members of the organization one year from now?

Kyle Glaser: Very comfortable. Never say never, but it would shock me if the Padres moved any of those three given how much they love them and how big of a role they are expected to play for the club in the relatively near future.

Matt (Ohio):

 Joey Cantillo got 2 or 3 in a rotation upside ?

Kyle Glaser: More 4 or 5, although there are a few lefties with his profile (87-91 mph, great CH) who have exceeded that, a la Marco Gonzales. (Not saying that’s a direct comp, just an example of a guy who has done it).

Fred Vincy (Illinois):

 For what was last year’s #1 system, this feels lighter than I expected, with two probable relievers (Munoz and Baez) and two more with highly-risky arms (Morejon and Weathers) in the top 10. Do you still see this as a top 5 system?

Kyle Glaser: It’s lighter for the right reasons. They graduated six of last year’s Top 10 prospects – Tatis, Paddack, Mejia, Urias, Naylor, Quantrill and used another in a trade (L. Allen). Another player who would have been in their top 10 this year, Xavier Edwards, was also moved in a deal for an impact big leaguer. That’s the point of all of this – graduate guys to the majors and use the leftovers in trades to fill the holes. It’s lighter, and that’s a good thing. As far as where they rank, our organizational talent rankings will be out soon.

Michael (San Diego):

 Most likely to (re?)-establish any optimistic about his floor in 2020: Jorge Ona, Hudson Potts or Esteury Ruiz? Any of them viable future everyday big leaguers in your mind at this point?

Kyle Glaser: Potts is the one with the youth, the carrying tool (power) and the ability to play the infield. (Ruiz can’t do it). He’s the one with the best chance, as you’ll see with our rankings and grades in the Prospect Handbook.

Michael (San Diego):

 Reggie Lawson: More career starts in the Don Welke Classic, or starts in MLB games?

Kyle Glaser: I do think he will make more than two starts in the major leagues, so MLB is the answer there.

Michael (San Diego):

 Among the second-tier infielders at Single-A last year, who has the best ceiling/who is most likely a big league contributor: Eguy, Justin Lopez or Tucupita Marcano?

Kyle Glaser: Marcano has the best natural feel to hit. He’s the guy, although he needs to add a lot, and I mean a lot, of strength over the next few years.

DRU (SD):

 When will we see gore and patino in big leagues?

Kyle Glaser: Assuming both stay healthy, Gore before Patino, both this year at some point.

Logan Binker (San Diego):

 Hey! Thank you for taking your time! I appreciate all your hard work!! I love my BA subscription!! When do u plan on releasing ur new top 100 prospects?

Kyle Glaser: Our pleasure. Thanks so much for subscribing and reading. I believe we release them near the end of this month, but I need to double check that. Keep an eye out the final week of January/first week of February, in general. We’ll be announcing exactly when they’ll be released later this month, I believe.

Michael (San Diego):

 Feels like Carlos Martinez’s trajectory for the Cardinals would be a good outcome for Patino – and that it would leave most Padres fans disappointed?

Kyle Glaser: That’s an interesting comparison that has some legs. I think if Padres fans are disappointed with a two-time All-Star starter by 25 who transitions into a firebreathing reliever later on, then they need to re-adjust their expectations.

Dan (SD):

 How concerned should we be that Arias’ 2nd half breakout had a bb% around 5%? You don’t think pitchers in AA will take advantage of his lack of plate discipline? I’m getting Hudson Potts vibes

Kyle Glaser: Different issues. Potts’ red flag was swinging and missing inside the zone, Arias’ issue is him chasing out of the zone (particularly below it). If it’s in the zone, Arias hits it. But you are correct that Double-A pitchers will eat Arias alive if he doesn’t improve his strike-zone discipline. That’s why you see a decently high number on him grade-wise, but also a higher risk grade on him than most prospects who hit .300 with 17 HR, 75 RBI and an .800 OPS at HiA at age 19.

Mike (San Diego):

 How elite is Andres Munoz fastball? How active are the Padres scouting Mexico?

Kyle Glaser: It’s an 80-grade pitch. It’s the elite of the elite. As for Mexico, the Padres have been very active there (as they should be) and are doing a good job of putting the club front and center among the fanbase with regular season games in Mexico in 2018 and 2020 as well as the preseason prospect exhibition last year. They’re doing a good job staying active down there on multiple fronts.

Roddy Reta (Chula Vista):

 Is there a particular reason why Jorge Ona’s stock fell so quickly? Not that long ago, he was a top international prospect, and I thought he was a big part of the Padres’ future.

Kyle Glaser: We see this sometimes with the bigger, bulkier guys who come over from other countries – they beat up on international competition by overpowering them with their sheer strength, but once they get to the U.S. they can’t catch up to better pitching and just don’t have the quick-twitch necessary. The big bulky guys also tend to struggle with injuries, too, which has happened with him. He has bat speed and maybe this shoulder issue was part of the reason why he was so stiff in his swing, so maybe it gets better, but for now a lot of the red flags that were apparent as soon as he got to the U.S. as still in place.

Dan (SD):

 What names just missed? How many more players til the 50fV tier started?

Kyle Glaser: Joey Cantillo was the only other player who received serious consideration for the Top 10. Owen Miller just plain hits and could very well have a better career than a couple of guys on the 10, as well.

Sergio Q (Tijuana, Mexico):

 What should we take with Ryan Weathers volatile velocity he had last year?

Kyle Glaser: That arm fatigue affected him and his conditioning is going to have to improve to maintain his best stuff over the course of a full professional season.

Michael (San Diego):

 Totally unreasonable to think that Edward Olivares could spend more years kicking around the big leagues than Trammell?

Kyle Glaser: Not at all. If Trammell’s swing improvements don’t hold and Olivares keeps improving at the rate he has, Olivares is going to be in the big leagues significantly longer.

Seanto (Tampa, FL):

 Love your work! This is obviously a crazy deep system, so I’d love to see any interesting notes from whichever prospect intrigues you most out of: Owen Miller, Gabriel Arias, Jawuan Harris, and Tucupita Marcano. Thanks!!

Kyle Glaser: Thanks for the kind words. Arias is the highest-ranked and I’ve been on the “I believe” side for a while (I ranked him in the Top 10 two years ago, apparently I was just early). He’s the most intriguing just because of how much ability he has. Miller to me is the classic guy who gets under-ranked – college infielder without sexy tools but who makes every play defensively and just plain hits. It would not shock me, at all, if he has the longest and most successful career of the four guys you just named.

Corey (Amarillo):

 Thoughts on Michel Baez reporting to camp as a starter in 2020? El Paso rotation opening day?

Kyle Glaser: The Padres still hold out some hope he can start. Depending on if he’s healthy (he’s missed the start of every season since he signed with injuries) and what the rest of the staff looks like, it’s either going to be the Padres bullpen or El Paso rotation for him on Opening Day.

Mike (San Diego):

 Does Trammell open in AAA or AA? Thinking here is El Paso numbers would be hard to determine when he is ready.

Kyle Glaser: He’ll open in Triple-A. Amarillo numbers are skewed heavily offensive as well, so it’s not like those a great barometer, either. Best thing to do is expose him to the best pitching he can see before getting to the majors, and that’s in Triple-A.

Mike (San Diego):

 What do you think the starting rotation looks like on opening day?

Kyle Glaser: In no particular order, and assuming everyone stays healthy, Paddack, Lucchesi, Lamet, Richards, Davies.

Michael (San Diego):

 If you buy that Gabriel Arias’s second-half improvement in Elsinore last year wasn’t just Buddy Reed 2.0, does he become one of the game’s top trade chips in July?

Kyle Glaser: He’s already a pretty good trade chip a lot of teams like right now. Rival evaluators are much higher on Arias than they were Reed.

Trixie (San Diego):

 A lot of people seem to think highly of Esteban Quiroz. Does he have a future in the major leagues, or is he a quad-A player?

Kyle Glaser: He has a long track record of hitting, which is a reason for optimism. There are people out there who see him as a major leaguer on a second-division team, although most see him as more of a Triple-A/callup type of option.

Brian (colombia):

 Which pitcher(s) do you project on the opening day roster….of the prospects (Gore, Patiño, etc)?

Kyle Glaser: Munoz and Baez are still prospect eligible. They’ll be on the Opening Day roster. Those are the only ones I would predict.

Sergio Q (Tijuana, Mexico):

 If Profar struggles, who do you give the best shot of staying as a starter at 2B between Miller, Cronenworth, Quiroz & France?

Kyle Glaser: Miller.

David Beebe (Hawaii):

 Who has the better big league career, Morejon or Baez?

Kyle Glaser: If I’m being 100 percent honest, I don’t have faith in Morejon staying healthy. Thus, Baez. I originally had Baez ranked higher because of that, but it’s tough to bury a 20-year-old who touches 98 from the left side and and has two potential plus secondaries, so my editors and other evaluators pushed for Morejon to be ranked higher. Still, I think when all is said and done Baez has the more consequential big league career, if for no other reason than he stays on the mound.

Bill (PA):

 Does Esteury Ruiz still have the tools to breakout at A+/AA this year, or is the luster on his profile starting to wear out?

Kyle Glaser: Ruiz’s power and baserunning ability are nice assets and he’s is an incredible worker with great makeup, all of which plays in his favor. That said, his swing, plate discipline and setup all need considerable work, and his hands just are not playable at second base. There’s a lot that needs to happen for him to succeed at higher levels. It’s not impossible, but it’s going to take a lot.

Sean (Carlsbad, CA):

 Which top Padres prospect (or former) could be traded to land a big bat or top of the rotation arm? Who should they target?

Kyle Glaser: Adrian Morejon, Josh Naylor and Gabriel Arias are all players teams have interest in. I would not hesitate to build a package around one or two of them to land a true, everyday center fielder who can actually hit, such as Starling Marte.

John (San Diego):

 Who projects as a better defensive center fielder between Trammell and Grisham?

Kyle Glaser: Grisham, but neither should really be in center field.

Sergio Q (Tijuana, Mexico):

 What’s your opinion on Luis Urías & Trent Grisham?

Kyle Glaser: As I mentioned on social media when the trade happened, it all comes down to who holds their adjustments better. Urias is the better player, but he’s generally been trending backwards while Grisham has been trending forward. I understand why the Padres did it. (And Davies is a massive rotation upgrade over Lauer, that can’t be forgotten here).

David Beebe (Hawaii):

 Rank them: Ty France, Hudson Potts, Owen Miller

Kyle Glaser: Miller, Potts, France.

Patrick (Walnut Creek CA):

 Is Gore ready for the bigs?

Kyle Glaser: As of the end of last season, not quite. Needs to get all four of his pitches working at the same time (he generally has two or two and half working at a time, never all four) and he has some delivery work from the stretch he needs to take care of. If he comes into spring training and all that is taken care of, then he’s probably ready.

ryan (San Diego):

 Campusano and cantillo are my picks to make big strides this year. Give me 2 of yours and what are your thoughts on those 2?

Kyle Glaser: They kind of made them last year. Campusano is a Top 100 prospect and Cantillo is a near Top 10 prospect in one of baseball’s better systems. I mentioned Joshua Mears and Blake Hunt earlier as two interesting guys I can see things clicking for. Yeison Santana and Junior Perez are two AZL guys to keep an eye on

Jacob (Wilmington, NC):

 Does David Bednar have late inning “stuff”?

Kyle Glaser: More middle relief, but you need those guys. A lot of games are lost in the 6th/7th innings.

Jacob (Wilmington, NC):

 Jorge Ona was added to the 40 man this offseason. ETA? Is there enough bat for him to be an everyday guy?

Kyle Glaser: Ona was added to the 40-man because of the Padres investment in him. A lot of the Padres own evaluators weren’t happy with the decision and felt there were other players the club should have protected instead. Maybe Ona comes back from surgery a different hitter and gets up to the majors this year. Barring that, there isn’t really an ETA on him because he wouldn’t really be a big leaguer.

Brian (San Diego):

 I have heard that Reggie Lawson has a chance to really break out this year? Do you agree? What is it dependent on?

Kyle Glaser: Same thing as always with him. Delivery fixes to command the ball better and being as dialed in during regular games as he is during big games. He’s struggled to do either of those two things consistently for the bulk of his career, so it’s tough to be 100 percent confident in a breakout, although I could certainly see it happening.

Louis (San Diego):

 I don’t see Luis Campusano in your future Padres lineup. Will he move off catcher?

Kyle Glaser: No, he’s fine back there. The Padres just have a 24-year-old catcher who hit . 305/.355/.511 last year after the All-Star break once he started getting more regular playing time. It’s going to be hard to knock that off, although Mejia in LF and Campusano at C is certainly a possible outcome.

Brian (San Diego):

 Did Hudson Head’s bonus surprise you? What is the early read on him?

Kyle Glaser: Eh, it takes what it takes to sign a guy. The early read is an immensely talented, confident athlete who has a lot of potential, but who needs to slow the game down a bit. That should come with time and experience.

Jacob (Wilmington, NC):

 Christian Heredia vs Junior Perez Which AZL outfielder do you prefer?

Kyle Glaser: Perez really opened some eyes in the AZL last year. He’s the one to watch.

Sergio Q (Tijuana, Mexico):

 Your thoughts on Anderson Espinoza? Any reason for optimism on him coming back close to what he was?

Kyle Glaser: It’s hard to be optimistic about two-time Tommy John recipients who will have missed 3+ seasons. At this point, anything Espinoza can give the Padres is a bonus.

Sergio Q (Tijuana, Mexico):

 Do you see the Padres skipping AAA with both Gore & Patiño?

Kyle Glaser: It’s possible. There’s definitely a plausible scenario where both start back at Double-A this year, and injuries/ineffectiveness in the majors leads them to be called up straight from Amarillo if the timing lines up.

Mike (San Diego):

 Does Ronald Bolanos fit better as a starter or reliever long term? Does he open in El Paso either way this year?

Kyle Glaser: Reliever. He might break camp in the Padres bullpen, although again, that depends on not only him but what other injuries/trades happen around him. For now, El Paso as a starter is probably his most likely Opening Day outcome.

David Beebe (Hawaii):

 Between Potts, Owen Miller and Ty France who has the best chance of developing into the Padres everyday second baseman for 2021?

Kyle Glaser: Miller.

Warren (New London):

 Thanks for the chat and for answering my question about the 2023 lineup. I have a follow-up question: the Padres have recently traded two excellent prospects that an old guy like me thinks of as traditional second base types, Xavier Edwards and Luis Urias, and more and more teams are turning to players like Mike Moustakas and Keston Hiura there. Did that influence your decision to place Abrams at 2B in the 2023 lineup, or is it more just that you had to get all the good young players in there somewhere?

Kyle Glaser: My pleasure. To answer your question, that had no influence on it at all. Just a matter of looking at the Padres organization as a whole, where they have lots of options (outfielders), where they have more limited options (middle infielders) and making all the puzzle pieces fit. It’s about the organization and what they have, more than any grandiose shift in philosophy.

Mike (San Diego):

 Any concern that the progression of Elsinore to the new joke of a ballpark in Amarillo to the collection of launching pads in the PCL division with El Paso reward bad approaches with good results, making it harder to develop guys at the big league level?

Kyle Glaser: That’s where it’s going to be critical to have good coaching – to make sure guys don’t fall into bad habits and think their minor league success using those habits is going to equal major league success.

Nick R (San Diego):

 Who has the best pure stuff of any starter in the org not named Gore or Patino?

Kyle Glaser: Adrian Morejon. His stuff is equal to or better than both of them across the board. His command and durability are not.

Steven (Poway):

 Can Luis Campusano stick behind the plate? Where do you see him on the top 100 list? top 30 prospect?

Kyle Glaser: More 60-80 range. And yes, he can stick behind the plate.

Jason (Oregon):

 Thanks for ur time Kyle! What do you think it’ll take the Padres to acquire Matthew Boyd? I like his upside! When do you plan on releasing ur 2020 preseason top 100 prospects? I’m looking forward to it! I love my BA subscription! Thanks for all your hard work!

Kyle Glaser: Thanks Jason. If the reports out there are accurate, the Tigers are asking for a haul for Boyd, who it’s worth noting completely fell off a cliff after the All-Star break and finished 51st out of 59 qualified pitchers in ERA. The strikeout rate is nice, but you can’t ignore the amount of home runs he gave up pitching in Comerica Park, either. He’s a fine, back-end starter, which should not require more than a prospect in the 5-10 range of the system and maybe another one somewhere in the back of the Top 30. The Tigers seem to want a lot, lot more than that, which makes it a tough sell, to me, for the Padres to go out and acquire him, especially when they have other, more pressing needs than a back-end starter.

Mike (San Diego):

 Torrens used up his rookie eligibility, but did you get a sense from evaluators that his performance in Amarillo this year was real and a sign he could be a viable big-leaguer? Safe to assume that using up his third option year in 2020 significantly reduces any potential trade value?

Kyle Glaser: Real in the sense he offers some potential as a backup, yes. The trade value of backup catchers isn’t overly high, so that’s honestly not something that’s a huge factor here.

Brian (San Diego):

 Can you please give us a report on Trent Grisham? How did you feel about his breakout last year? Had he not been called up, what range would you see him ranked overall?

Kyle Glaser: It’s tough to know what to make of Grisham. He was absolutely terrible, and I mean truly terrible, for the better part of three years. When I saw him at Carolina in 2017, he was one of the worst first-round picks I’d ever seen. To his credit, he made real, tangible changes last year and saw results. It’s hard to know how much is real given the Triple-A environment last year, although Double-A Biloxi is a tough place to hit and he did good things there, too. There’s evidence to point to on both sides of the argument whether his breakout is real or not. Which one is correct, I honestly have no idea. I can see it going either way. If he was still prospect-eligible, I could see him as high as No. 6 or as low as No. 13 in the system. He’s probably the biggest question mark to me on the Padres roster this year, as far as whether he’ll be good or not.

Tyler (AL):

 I’ve heard a lot of hype related to Hudson Head, but there wasn’t much of a standout performance in the AZL this year. Have you gotten any reports from instructs?

Kyle Glaser: He makes contact, gets on base and has room to grow into real power, while also being a really, really good athlete. Every evaluator we spoke to in the AZL consistently saw him as a future big leaguer, it was just a matter of degree (some saw a first-division regular, others saw more of a 4th OF type, but they all saw a big leaguer). The instructs reports were the same. Bat speed is there, athleticism is there, just has some swing things to clean up and reps he needs to take in the box and the outfield. Nothing is guaranteed, obviously, but pretty much everyone liked what they saw. This is also your reminder that when evaluating low level prospects, AVG and OBP are way more telling than HR or SLG. Power comes last. Don’t worry about that. His stat line actually looks perfectly fine for a just-drafted HS player in the AZL.

Loren (Jack Murphy Stadium):

 Thanks for all your hard work on this. What do you see as the likelihood that Patino and Gore meet the high expectations that are being suggested of them, and do you see them both arriving 2020 or 2021? Also given some of your other comments, is this still a top 5 farm system?

Kyle Glaser: Pitchers are notoriously fickle, so it’s hard to say it’s more than 25 percent on any pitcher reaching their absolute top ceiling. I do think both will make their debuts in 2020. As for where the Padres rank, the organization talent rankings will be out soon. I will say with three premium prospects at the top and a lot of depth still, this is still a very, very good farm system compared to its peers.

Fred (San Diego):

 JJ Cooper said top 100 will be out in the next week or so. Still accurate?

Kyle Glaser: Whatever JJ said is probably what’s right. He runs the show.

Mark (Bay Area):

 Gut reaction, this year and in the next few years, who is the Padres best pitcher? Lamet, Paddack, Gore?

Kyle Glaser: This year? Lamet. In a few years? Gore.

Abe (La Mesa):

 Do you think the Padres gave up on Urias too soon?

Kyle Glaser: I think it is very, very much in the cards that Luis Urias goes to Milwaukee, hears some new voices and clicks offensively, especially playing his home games in Miller Park. I’m not sure if that would have happened if he stayed with the Padres. Sometimes people need fresh starts and new voices in their ear. I will say, however, that the Brewers trying to make them their everyday shortstop will probably undercut his offensive performance. He really needs to be at 2B so he can just play his natural spot and focus on his bat, although the presence of Keston Hiura obviously complicates that.

Leo (La Jolla, CA):

 What are your thoughts on Jake Cronenworth and where do you see him fitting into the Padres’ prospect ranking and on the team likely in 2020/2021?

Kyle Glaser: You can find Cronenworth’s ranking in the system in the Prospect Handbook. He’s going to be their main utility infielder (and one who can actually play SS, which the Padres haven’t had in a while) who can also pitch an inning here or there in blowout situations.

Logan (Scottsdale):

 Luis Patinó or Forrest Whitley?

Kyle Glaser: You’ll be able to find that answer in our Top 100 soon enough.

Cam (Boston):

 Beside the jump in his stat line, did evaluators notice significant increase in Cronenworth’s batted ball profile (exit velo, launch angle, etc) that explains his improvement. What % chance does he have at being at least an average (2nd division regular) MI at the MLB level, 25%?

Kyle Glaser: He got stronger and more aggressive in his approach. The result was he started driving more balls. Even with that, it’s still 95 percent reserve/utilityman who starts when injuries hit, and maybe 5 percent second-division starter. Maybe not even that. It’s really pretty consensus what he is, a nice valuable infield reserve who can do a couple of different things for you.

Sam (NYC):

 Would Xavier Edwards been a Top 10 guy if he wasn’t traded to TB? Thanks –

Kyle Glaser: Yes. Xavier Edwards was set to rank No. 6 in the Padres system before the trade to Tampa.

Christian (Tijuana):

 If the padres don’t trade for a tor arm, do they have enough pitching in their system to have a top 5 rotation in baseball for 2021?

Kyle Glaser: That’s going to depend on how quickly Gore and Patino adjust to the big leagues and what strides Paddack and Lamet take. If they all progress in the right direction, with Lucchesi as the No. 5, that’s a very, very good rotation that’s probably Top 10 in baseball and maybe more. But again, history tells us something will go sideways for at least one of those guys, and probably two. When it comes to pitchers, things rarely happen quickly or go exactly according to plan.

Oswaldo (BC):

 Do you believe Naylor will hit enough to be a starter for the padres? or is he just a trade piece at this point?

Kyle Glaser: He has a chance to. At the same time, he really is probably most valuable to the club as a trade piece. There are plenty of 1B-needy AL teams out there (Texas and Boston, to name two) he’d be a much better fit for.

Luke (California):

 What player do you have the Padres taking in the 2020 draft?

Kyle Glaser: Best player available. We’re a long way from knowing who that will be at No. 8.

Louis (San Diego):

 Just how good is Campusano’s bat? Is a .300 average with 20/25 HRs in play?

Kyle Glaser: That would make him Buster Posey. Think more .270 on the average, the 20-25 bombs are certainly possible. That’s still excellent, excellent offensive production for a catcher.

Sergio Q (Tijuana, Mexico):

 What the situation with Mason Thompson and his health & development?

Kyle Glaser: He filled out and is throwing harder. But it’s the same issues. Can’t stay healthy and well below average command.

Mike (San Diego):

 What’s the record length for a Top 10 Chat???

Kyle Glaser: I did a four and half hour one for the Padres a few years ago when I was trying to break the BA record (which I did). We’re still an hour away from that mark, don’t know if we’ll get there.

Christian (Tijuana):

 What would the padres need to give up in a trade for Starling Marte?

Kyle Glaser: My first thought would be one of their young big leaguers and one of their Nos. 5-11 prospects to start, but honestly the cost of acquiring big leaguers has become so laughably low the Padres might be able to get away with less.

Michael (San Diego):

 There’s no chance Miller plays SS at the big league level, is there?

Kyle Glaser: Not except in case of emergency, no. He’s a 2B.

Mike (San Diego):

 Any of the outfielders from Fort Wayne last year – Williams-Sutton, Agustin Ruiz or Michael Curry – have a chance to be more than system depth? It’s already too late to have any hope for Grant Little, right?

Kyle Glaser: Ruiz gets a little bit of love, but nothing overwhelming. And Grant Little was an overdraft. No one has seen anything there for two years. It happens.

Christian (Tijuana):

 Any toughts on Quantrill? he had a couple of really good months but then came back to earth, can we expect a solid #3 or #4? or is he just a 5 at best?

Kyle Glaser: It was really three bad starts at the end that made his season look uglier than it was. He has the stuff and build to be a durable, mid to back of the rotation starter. The biggest thing with him is doing a better job of sequencing and learning when to dial back. If he does that, he has a chance to stay in a rotation somewhere, whether that’s in San Diego or somewhere else.

Luke (California):

 Who would be the best trade candidate for the Padres to go after and who would you give up to get him?

Kyle Glaser: I’ve referenced Starling Marte a couple of times. That’s the one the Padres really should get done, even if they have to overpay a little bit.

Matthew (Oregon):

 Is McKenzie Gore a better PITCHER in January 2020 than Chris Paddack was in January 2019?

Kyle Glaser: Hard to say without seeing what Gore has done this offseason. And besides, what they look like in January is irrelevant. What they look like in March is when it starts to matter.

Michael (San Diego):

 Any wheat among the chaff of the college starter arms that filled day two of the draft last year? The Padres have done well with lower-profile guys who, on paper, look a lot like that collection who spent the summer in Tri-City.

Kyle Glaser: Matt Brash got a lot of high marks from both the amateur scouting and player development staffs. He has a chance to move quickly if they move him to the bullpen.

Mike (San Diego):

 Anything on either Steven Wilson or Mason Fox, both of whom seem to have emerged as actual relief options? They both still a tier below big Jordan Guerrero?

Kyle Glaser: Wilson is above Guerrero. He jumped up to 94-97 with good command of his slider and the slow, steady heartbeat you want from your relievers. He’ll be in the majors this year. Mason Fox has a good curveball, but honestly he got crushed the couple of times I saw him. Wilson, Guerrero, Fox is the order, for me.

Christian (Tijuana):

 Any toughts on Franchy Cordero?

Kyle Glaser: Gotta stay healthy. It’s really that simple.

Kyle Glaser: Ok everybody, that will do it for today. Just shy of four solid hours. Thanks for all the questions and I hope you all have a great weekend. I’ll be back Monday to chat Dodgers.