RoboScout’s Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects For 2024


Image credit: Coby Mayo (Photo by Tom DiPace)

When we put together our Dynasty 700 and the subsequent Top 100 Fantasy Prospects, we mined from our scouting reports and fantasy expertise to put it together. We also had an unsung contribution from RoboScout.

A huge part of fantasy baseball involves projections. This makes sense, of course. If you can estimate, as accurately as possible, the potential contribution of a player to your fantasy roster, you can make better informed decisions on how you want to draft your team, build your roster and even make trades. Projections are a necessary ingredient for fantasy success in redraft leagues. 

Although the cumulative accuracy of projections dissipates as you move further and further into the future, these same principles hold true in a dynasty league. If you can estimate, as accurately as possible, the future (yearly) contributions of a player to your dynasty fantasy roster, you will have an advantage over other leaguemates who are less rigorous in their approach.

What is RoboScout?

The high-level basis for how projections are created boils down to one simple truism: past performance—despite what the legal disclaimers on your 401(k) may say— are related to future returns. By looking, for example, at the average paired-year performances of hitters and pitchers historically, weighting by sample size, adjusting for survivor bias, one can generate expected age curves with reasonable accuracy of various statistics, such as walk rate (of both hitters and pitchers), strikeout rate (of both hitters and pitchers), ground ball rate (of both hitters and pitchers) and home runs per plate appearance and OPS (of hitters). Given a hitter’s OPS, walk percentage, and strikeout percentage, one can reasonably infer what their batting average is, and so forth. 

We can apply this same approach to the minor leagues. Take paired-”level” performances of hitters and pitchers historically, one can estimate what a pitcher’s strikeout rate would be in Double-A given that he had, say, a 12% strikeout percentage in High-A. By understanding the expected equivalent performance at a higher level—including MLB—we can thus generate an “expected” major league performance based on a minor leaguer’s performance (after additionally adjusting the statistical performance to the league’s run environment and also from Matt Eddy’s park factors. Now add in the “age curve” calculations from the previous paragraphs to this expected major league projection, and you can estimate what the hitter’s projection would be in his prime performance years.

Depending on how deep you wanted to go—for example, incorporating platoon splits, quality-of-competition or deriving independent age curves for different “phylums” of similar hitter archetypes—more granular adjustments can be made.

Hitting a home run on opening day does not imply a player will likely finish the season with 162 home runs. Likewise, we also apply regression to more accurately reflect expected season-long performance based on performance from small sample sizes. 

The final piece to the recipe is minor league Statcast data. Supplementing the performance inputs used in the “projections” for hitters are barrel rate, exit velocity, contact percentage and other metrics that are shown to be correlate to future wRC+. For the pitchers, RoboScout folds in the pitch-level metrics (movement, velocity, etc.) that are inputs into traditional Stuff+ models.

Use the projections to your advantage

While it is true that for more accurate “projections”, one should use multiple years of performance (as a player’s “true talent” is more accurately reflected by their career performance than from their “most recent three months”), RoboScout was specifically designed to quickly estimate future performance and only uses current season data. This is because it’s extremely advantageous to find prospects in dynasty leagues before before industry outlets publish their updated lists (or podcasts discuss them). 

In order to do so, you will need to make decisions with imperfect information. For example, if you waited until Davis Schneider was called up to the major leagues, and then performed well enough to get a rest-of-season projection that was attractive, it was too late. He was likely already rostered for weeks. If we can positively influence the decision-making process despite having only imperfect information, this would be a powerful tool.

To make RoboScout as simple as possible— and as simple as possible to maintain—it is solely results-based. It does not know if a hitter is an unathletic designated hitter or an 80-grade defender in center field. RoboScout merely takes the player’s performance and ranks them, at each minor league level, based on their (1) projected major league performance, (2) projected peak major league performance, and (3) expected long-term fantasy value (generalized because of the various league formats). 

From all of the above, the following RoboScout 100 list was created.

Unsurprisingly, there is a lot of overlap with our curated lists which had the benefit of human intervention. For example, all of the usual suspects are here: Jackson Chourio, Samuel Basallo, Junior Caminero, Coby Mayo, Jackson Holliday, and so forth. Sprinkled throughout the list, however, are a few “interesting” (read: odd) names—most of which seem to be hitters who possess an outlier ability to make contact, avoid strike outs and therefore have high expected batting averages in the David Fletcher and Tony Kemp mold.

In future articles, we will look at some of these unexpected names—and some of the older players who RoboScout also liked but were not appropriate for a prospect list.

Here’s the full list. You can find full scouting reports for every player ranked in our Preseason Top 30s here.

RoboScout Top 100 Fantasy Prospects

1Coby MayoBAL3B22AA
2Colt KeithDET3B22AA
3Xavier EdwardsMIA2B24AAA
4Samuel BasalloBALC19A+
5Junior CamineroTBR3B20AA
6Tyler BlackMIL2B/3B23AA
7Emmanuel RodriguezMINOF21A+
8Owen CaissieCHCOF21AA
9Jackson HollidayBALSS20A+
10Jackson ChourioMILOF20AA
11Jared JonesPITP22AAA
12Jett WilliamsNYMSS/OF20A+
13Luis MatosSFOF22AA
14Jasson DominguezNYYOF21AA
15Moises BallesterosCHCC20A+
16Samuel ZavalaSDPOF19A+
17Jakob MarseeSDPOF23A+
18Jackson JobeDETP21A+
19Ivan HerreraSTLC24AAA
20Kyle HarrisonSFP22AAA
21Chayce McDermottBALP25AAA
22Cole YoungSEASS20A+
23Colt EmersonSEASS18A
24Sal StewartCIN3B20A+
25Chase HamptonNYYP22A+
26Wyatt LangfordTEXOF22A+
27Evan CarterTEXOF21AA
28Xavier IsaacTB1B20A+
29Ethan SalasSDC18A
30Kala’i RosarioMINOF21A+
31Thomas SaggeseSTL2B/SS22AA
32James WoodWSHOF21AA
33Ben RiceNYYC25AA
34Carter JensenKCRC20A+
35Colton CowserBALOF24AAA
36Adael AmadorCOLSS21A+
38Matt ShawCHC2B/SS22A+
39Thayron LiranzoLADC20A
40Roman AnthonyBOSOF20A+
41Justyn-Henry MalloyDET3B24AAA
42Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHCOF22AA
43Jackson MerrillSDSS21A+
44AJ Smith-ShawverATLP21AAA
45Hao-Yu LeeDET2B21A+
46Jace JungDET2B23A+
47Chase DeLauterCLEOF22A+
48Will WarrenNYYP25AAA
49Ignacio AlvarezATL3B/SS21A+
50James TriantosCHCSS21A+
51Marco LucianoSFSS22AA
52Lazaro MontesSEAOF19A
53Connor PhillipsCINP23AA
54Cade HortonCHCP22A+
55Luis LaraMILOF19A+
56Juan BritoCLE2B22AA
57Everson PereiraNYYOF23AA
58Leo JimenezTORSS23AA
59Curtis MeadTBR3B23AAA
60Javier VazKCR2B23A+
61Dalton RushingLADC23A+
62Noah SchultzCHWP20A
63Colson MontgomeryCHWSS22A+
64Orelvis MartinezTORSS22AA
65Carson WilliamsTBSS21A+
66Nathan MartorellaSDP1B23A+
67Kyle ManzardoCLE1B23AAA
68Wilyer AbreuBOSOF25AAA
69Edwin ArroyoCINSS20A+
70Termarr JohnsonPIT2B20A+
71Blaze JordanBOS1B/3B21A+
72Jonatan ClaseSEAOF22A+
73Andy PagesLADOF23AA
74Hunter GoodmanCOL1B/C24AA
75Tanner SchobelMIN2B23A+
76Jacob MisiorowskiMILP22A
77Trey SweeneyLADSS24AA
78Edgar QueroCWSC21AA
79Wes ClarkeMILC/1B24AA
80Justice BigbieDET3B25AA
81Ben BrownCHCP24AAA
82Jorbit VivasNYY2B23AA
83Justin CrawfordPHIOF20A+
84Josue BricenoDETC19A
85Caleb DurbinNYY2B24AA
86Ronny MauricioNYM2B/SS23AAA
87Gabriel GonzalezSEAOF20A
88Kevin McGonigleDETSS19A
89Jeferson QueroMILC21AA
90Abimelec OrtizTEX1B22A+
91Ryan CliffordNYM1B/OF20A
92Chase MeidrothBOS2B/3B21AA
93Dylan BeaversBALOF22A+
94Carlos JorgeCIN2B20A+
95Harry FordSEAC21A+
96Tyler HardmanNYY1B24AA
97Joey OrtizMIL2B/SS24AAA
98Brock WilkenMIL3B21A+
99Jordan LawlarARISS21AAA
100Alan RodenTOROF24AA

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